Sunday, January 31, 2010

Rating and Ranking the Accuracy of Fantasy Football Projection Sites

There is a very good female fantasy football blogger by the name of Sara Holladay at http://www.fflibrarian.com/. After each season she does the major task of evaluating the most accurate fantasy football projections on the internet. This past Thursday she posted her story on this year's results along with rationale on how she ranks the sites.

This year CBSSports.com won the overall category.

Here's her published results of the last three seasons at the NYTimes Fifth Down Blog:
2007
2008
2009

For other contest winners in the 2009 Fantasy Sports Trade Association (F. S. T. A.) see http://www.fsta.org/blog/fsta-in-the-news/fsta-2009-awards-winners-announced

Now, I'm not real sure of what the best way to rank all the fantasy football projections would be for the most accurate rankings, but it can't hurt to look at how someone else has done it especially if you don't have the time to sit down with all the information for yourself.

May your fantasy football seasons become better and better with information like this.

8/19/10 UPDATE: Now she has begun to collate her yearly rankings from her dead laptop's hard drive into a multiyear assessment of the accuracy of fantasy projections for each position. See the later post: FFLibrarian's Multi-year Accuracy Results

Saturday, January 30, 2010

Looking Ahead 2010: Ghost

This is the fourth post of a series of blogs covering each team from Brothers Keeper in detail. We began with the last place team and we are moving to the top of the league standings as it stood at the end of the 2009 fantasy football season (cf. Kabuki Strikes Back; CustodianPandemonium; Favre$Footlong). Fourth up, Ghost (B Garner).

Overview of B Garner's Brothers Keeper History
2007 Ghost: 5-9-0 (3d Place) 1396.69 points; 12 transactions
2008 Ghost: 10-3-0 (2d Place) 1482.78 points; 9 transactions
2009 Ghost: 5-8-0 (7th Place) 1502.85 points; 8 transactions

2009 End of Season Commentary
"All Day" (A Peterson RB), the former OU standout, has been a mainstay on Ghost's team since the 3d round of Brothers Keeper's inaugural 2007's draft. Ghost has been competitive ever since. The fact that Ghost was only 5-8-0 for the season with a 7th place playoff seed and 7th place finish doesn't do his team justice. Ghost had the second highest total of fantasy points scored for the season in the league. Ghost had a difficult schedule.

Sometimes you get bit by the fantasy fairy who makes your season schedule. It seems to happen once a year to at least one team if you are in an average of 3 fantasy football leagues. Basically your team is blessed with one of the best point scoring teams in the league but your record is horrid because every week your opponent's team has their best game of the season. Curse the fairy or die trying if you are that team. Ghost tried hard. Ending the season on 4 consecutive losses with another 2 more in a row in the playoffs for a 6 game skid is definitely frustrating. If he had not had so many points scored through the regular season he could have been the 8th seed playoff team and made it to the Semifinals by overcoming Yankinfowlsandfeline (J Smith). Instead, it was Sea Buzzards (M Peltonen) who got the easy Quarterfinal matchup and made it to the Championship against the number 2 seed Yer X-MOM (P Smith) who deftly submerged Ghost's playoffs hopes in that Quarterfinal game. Ghost got bit by the fantasy fairy twice. Once in the regular season and once in the playoffs. What did the Ghost do to deserve that?

In 2007, Ghost was the 8th seed playoff team who won the 3d place bronze trophy over the number 2 seed Yer X-MOM. Ghost never gave tribute to the fantasy fairy for that or the 2008 season. Lesson learned: Don't tick off the fantasy fairy by ignoring her. Send her your annual dues today.

In fantasy reality (isn't that an oxymoron?) it was another story. Ghost's season point total was high and his team was on the cusp of greatness until... his number one pick overall in the 2009 Brothers Keeper Fantasy Football BBQ Draft went kind of bust. A Boldin WR had an outstanding season for Yer X-MOM in 2008 scoring 207.60 fantasy points making him the most productive fantasy player per game (not counting his lost games due to that monster hit of an injury). Plus he was a 7th round draft pick in 2008. Ghost had amazing keepers in 2009 from 2008's team. Keeping A Peterson RB and Calvin Johnson WR and Jay Cutler QB was a fantastic foundation to begin building around. A Boldin made sense considering his 2008 fantasy production. L Fitzgerald WR, E Doucet WR, and S Breaston WR also receive passes from K Warner QB in Arizona. That's a lot of talent to throw to. A Boldin was going to suffer slightly regardless of injury concerns. Was he really worth a number 1 draft pick?

But worse than Boldin, was Calvin Johnson's WR, J Cutler's QB and M Ryan's QB unforeseen fall in fantasy production. Calvin Johnson inherited a rookie QB while J Cutler inherited a new team. In Garner's own words "the Bears ruined a great QB!" M Ryan is still a year or so away from being a top ten fantasy producer. Who else could you turn to in order to produce fantasy points at QB? The inconsistent D Garrard QB (a.k.a. "the town bike" because everyone had a ride)? Ghost was a QB short of a very dominant team in 2009... and maybe he'll pay off the fantasy fairy in the offseason before 2010 arrives. However, he still drafted nicely with P Harvin WR as a force to be reckoned with in the years to come (if the Minnesota Vikings stay with veteran talents like B Favre at QB). T Jones RB also produced good results. But his time with the NY Jets may be coming to an end. Ghost really did get bit by the fantasy fairy twice.

Ghost's transactions were not perfect however. He dropped the drafted L Maroney RB who turned into a fantasy producer for the first time in his career. His previous 3 seasons were useless for fantasy purposes. 2009 finally demonstrated Maroney was worthy of a fantasy team's roster spot. Beginning in week 6 Maroney scored noteworthy fantasy points total in 7 of the next 10 weeks of fantasy play (this excludes his week 16 performance of 0.20 points). He ended the season with a total of 149.95 points. Maroney could have single-handedly catapulted Ghost into a better playoff seed or better playoff performance. But he was let go on Monday October 12th. Six days later on Sunday October 18th the New England Patriots trounced the Tennessee Titans 59-0 in week 6 of the NFL season, the first week of Maroney's attack of the disloyal owners.

Ghost's 2009 Draft
Ghost (B Garner) had the 9th overall draft pick position in the 2009 draft thanks to his strong playoff performance in 2008 gaining him the silver medal trophy (2d place). His 2009 draft results are thus (noting that those who were kept from his 2008 final roster:

1. (9) Anquan Boldin WR
2. (12) Adrian Peterson RB (Keeper)
3. (29) Thomas Jones RB
4. (32) Calvin Johnson WR (Keeper)
5. (49) Dallas Clark TE
6. (52) Jay Cutler QB (Keeper)
7. (69) Willis McGahee RB
8. (72) Pittsburgh DEF
9. (89) Percy Harvin WR
10. (92) David Akers K
11. (109) Julius Jones RB
12. (112) Laveranues Coles WR
13. (129) Laurence Maroney RB
14. (132) Heath Miller TE
15. (149) Matt Ryan QB (Keper)

Ghost's Final 2009 Roster
I have included the 2010 draft round and pick overall (overall pick is in parentheses) value of each player on Ghost's final roster followed by the name of the player, player's position, total # of fantasy starts for the season (a * indicates developmental eligibility for 2010's draft; some players were on more than one team but their total starts for all teams is listed); and total fantasy points scored by the player for the 16 fantasy week season (which is not subject to the # of starts):

1. (5) Anquan Boldin WR; 14 fantasy starts; 162.40 fp
1. (5) Adrian Peterson RB (2009 Keeper); 15 fantasy starts; 299.70 fp
2. (16)
3. (25) Thomas Jones RB; 15 fantasy starts; 237.10 fp
3. (25) Calvin Johnson WR (2009 Keeper); 12 fantasy starts; 149.50 fp
4. (36)
5. (45) Dallas Clark TE; 15 fantasy starts; 216.40 fp
5. (45) Jay Cutler QB (2009 Keeper); 14 fantasy starts; 297.94 fp
5. (45) Larry Johnson RB; *2 fantasy starts (2 with CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS); 73.20 fp
6. (56)
7. (65) Willis McGahee RB; 5 fantasy starts; 155.65 fp
8. (76) Pittsburgh DEF; 15 fantasy starts; 129.00 fp
9. (85) Percy Harvin WR; 8 fantasy starts; 199.53 fp
9. (85) Braylon Edwards WR; 5 fantasy starts (1 with Favre$Footlong + 4 with Ghost); 103.00 fp
10. (96) David Akers K; 15 fantasy starts; 145.00 fp
11. (105)
12. (116)
13. (125)
14. (136) Heath Miller TE; *1 fantasy starts; 151.45 fp
14. (136) Matt Ryan QB (2009 Keper); *2 fantasy starts; 233.54 fp
15. (145) Austin Collie WR; *2 fantasy starts; 136.17 fp (Undrafted)

Looking Ahead at 2010
Ghost (B Garner) is upbeat about 2010 and beyond: "My team is young and will be a team to watch out for, for many years to come!!!" That's confidence. After all, he used three exclamation marks. There's nothing wrong with confidence most of the time. Some people have more confidence in this league than others. Take R Johnson for example. He's only made the playoffs once. Ghost's confidence can tell you he has made it deep into the playoffs the previous two years and 2009 was the attack of the fantasy fairy whereby he came out relatively unscathed on the injury front.

If one were to compare his team to the top 7 picks of Favre$Footlong's (D Kessler) 2009 draft then yes, his "team is young." But how young is Ghost's final roster which is available to him to build from? Excluding the kickers and team defense from each team, here is the average age of the skill position players (what their age will be at the beginning of 2010's season) for each Brothers Keeper fantasy football team (from youngest to oldest):

Yer X-MOM                      25.87
Yankinfowlsandfeline        26.64
Sea Buzzards                    27.25
Ghost                               27.46
CustodianPandemonium    27.54
Simba's ButtKicker!           27.69
Redmans CatPunters         27.83
Favre$Footlong                 27.92
Cyborg Pirate Ninjas          28
Kabuki Strikes Back           29.46

However, this is a skewed look in three ways. First, for a better look at each team one should not just take the overall average of the age of the team (as I have it listed above). Rather for a better perspective one should account for the years plus or minus the peak years for each position. For example (and I'm just pulling numbers from thin air here), if one decided that RBs declined after age 26, TEs after age 27, WRs after age 32, and QBs after age 34 then you could take each player's position into account and calculate how many years left they have in their prime. Then an average overall of that plus/minus number total could possibly help determine if a team is "young" or not.

The second way this is skewed is by underrating who actually might be kept for 2010's team. For example, if Kabuki Strikes back keeps B Jacobs, K Moreno, and M Crabtree (all under 28 in 2010) then the above statistic is unhelpful at projecting the age of a team for 2010.

The third way this is skewed is that it does not take into account the the age along with the number of active starts for players utilized throughout the season. For example, someone could could use T Owens (37) for two games and never activate him again through the season, all the while other 20 year olds are getting the fantasy starts. This too would change these numbers.

Next, whatever set of numbers you use to calculate the age of a fantasy team you would need to see if it even correlated to fantasy points or wins and playoff success. While the above list shows some correlation to this year's league standings, CustodianPandemonium becomes an anomoly to the correlation. Maybe a team's sit/starts makes it even more skewed.

There are a lot of variables in play that determine the success of a fantasy team in a keeper league (and it could occupy many posts). The fantasy fairy (fantasy schedule), a player's NFL schedule (e.g., a RB could play an above average amount of tough run defenses), and injuries to any aspect of a team (e.g., an offensive lineman may hurt the RBs production or QBs production, while a QB's injury may hurt the fantasy value of a RB or WR or TE) could all be the deciding factor of success. Not just the fact that a team is young. Overuse in one season to a young RB may completely devastate the rest of his career. A fantasy player may keep the wrong people. There are too many variables to fantasy success or loss of fantasy production for a team. Plus, youth purely on its own may actually be a detriment to fantasy production as is the case with conventional fantasy wisdom about WRs (3d year in NFL is first year of major fantasy success). But it sure is fun trying to win.

Back to Ghost's team specifically: At the time of this post, it appears that the Cincinnati Bengals are not going to bring back L Johnson RB nor is it certain that the New York Jets will bring back T Jones RB for the final year of his contract. They are older anyhow. Ghost definitely won't be on the lookout to keep them if he wants his team "young." If he wants youth he'll have to look at 4 players on his team: A Peterson RB (25); Calvin Johnson WR (25); A Collie WR (25); P Harvin WR (22); B Edwards WR (27); J Cutler QB (27); and M Ryan QB (25) [ages listed are for player's age at the beginning of 2010's NFL season]. They seem to be good keepers to me. "All Day" is a given keeper. Not sure which combination WRs and QBs he might keep. Ghost will probably have to determine who gets kept based on their 2010 projected production and if they are worth being kept at that round in the draft. If A Collie is supposed to have increased production then his 15th rd draft pick makes him a good keeper candidate. However, Calvin Johnson may be the better producer. P Harvin may be kept depending on who the Minnesota QB will be. If Favre retires and the NFL team brings in another veteran other than M Vick to QB the team, then Harvin's production should continue. Minnesota has a lot of WRs and a rising TE with a RB who also is important. I'm not really sure what Harvin's future looks like with such a talent crowded offense and unsure QB situation. I'm also unsure of A Collie's WR production if or when A Gonzalez WR returns to Indianapolis. Unless A Boldin WR is traded or the Arizona Cardinals get another veteran QB (since K Warner QB has retired) I doubt he will be an attractive keeper at the number one draft position.

My Best Guess at Ghost's 2010 Keepers
A Peterson RB, Calvin Johnson WR, P Harvin WR, and M Ryan QB as developmental seems to me to be the best keepers for Ghost unless Favre retires and the Minnesota Vikings do not attain a veteran QB. If there is no worthy QB for the Vikings then I'd say maybe D Clark is kept. It really is hard to say.
 
Brothers Keeper Third Party Consultant's Best Guess at Ghost's 2010 Keepers
"im gonna say ap, megatron, matt ryan, and dallas clark"

Saturday, January 23, 2010

Looking Ahead 2010: Favre$Footlong

This is the third post of a series of blogs covering each team from Brothers Keeper in detail. We will begin with the last place team and move to the top of the league standings as it stood at the end of the 2009 fantasy football season (cf. Kabuki Strikes Back; CustodianPandemonium). Third up, Favre$Footlong (D Kessler)

Overview of D Kessler's Brothers Keeper History
2007 Junior Asparagus: 4-10-0 (10th Place) 1211.51 points; 8 transactions
2008 PAIN: 9-4-0 (1st Place) 1420.68 points; 14 transactions
2009 Favre$Footlong: 8-5-0 (8th Place) 1247.90 points; 25 transactions

2009 End of Season Commentary
"From worst to first!" was D Kessler's motto in 2008. Just an amazing turnaround. But how did that happen? At first look you would probably scratch your head. From 2007's roster. D Kessler chose to keep 2 TEs! Sure J Witten TE and T Gonzalez TE are good, definitely Hall of Fame good, but keeping 2 TEs when you can only start 1 each week? Not sure what the philosophy was because when he traded J Witten to Yer X-MOM (P Smith) for a 4th round pick in the 2008 draft, it made sense, that is, until he drafted A Gates TE with that draft pick! What PAIN did have was 3 breakout players: P Thomas RB, M Cassel QB, and B Marshall WR along with the resurgence of T Jones RB. D Bowe WR and M Barber RB were also notable contributors getting PAIN a #3 seed in the 2008 playoffs. His semifinal win upset over Yer X-MOM (P Smith) and championship success had everything to do with great matchups for his fantasy players. What a turnaround! What a run!

As with Yank (J Smith), a repeat of success is hard to come by because of the late draft pick (10th). But D Kessler entered the 2009 Brothers Keeper BBQ Draft with a new team name and his perennial favored TE T Gonzalez and 2 of his 2008 breakout players, B Marshall WR and M Cassel QB. While Cassel was a shell of his previous year (being on a new team), D Kessler did about as good as he did in 2008's regular season. He earned a #4 seed in the 2009 playoffs.

Unfortunately Favre$Footlong was cut short by Simba's ButtKicker! (R Johnson) in the quarterfinals. His team lost by a 1.12 point defecit. He could have started T Owens WR instead of K Britt WR and won. An active WR, RB, or QB could have had 15 more yards of offensive stats and Fave$Footlong would have won. He could have not dropped R Mendenhall RB or V Davis TE earlier in the season and utilized them. But instead, he gave hope to R Johnson's Simba's ButtKicker! The league suffered a number of boastings as a result. D Kessler usually sings in the GMBC Choir where R Johnson plays drums. Truth be known, I'm sure D Kessler is still friendly toward R Johnson. He's the humble one.
Along the way, 2009 was an interesting year foor Favre$Footlong in the personnel department. Basically two 30 year old RBs that were leaned upon early in the year were injured and a 35 year old WR had a merry-go-round of QBs throwing his way. Kessler's 2d round draft pick C Portis RB got injured. So did his 6th round draft pick J Lewis RB. The only think the Buffalo Bills had going for them in 2009 was the best special teams in the NFL. T Owens WR did not produce and I'm sure the popcorn sales sank in Orchard Park, NY. Along with the popcorn went D Kessler's Favre$Footlong.... unless he made up for dropping the talented V Davis TE and R Mendenhall RB. He did. S Rice WR and  J Stewart RB (finally healthy enough to replace the injured D Williams RB) were plucked from free agency and revived Favre$Footlong enough to be competitive in the first round of the playoffs. One can only wonder where his team would have ended up if the talented players were not dropped. V Shianco TE and P Garcon WR are notable free agent pick ups with developmental eligibility for next year.

Favre$Footlong's 2009 Draft
Favre$Footlong (D Kessler) had the 10th overall draft pick position in the 2009 draft thanks to his strong playoff performance gaining him the Championship trophy. His 2009 draft results are thus (noting that those who were kept from his 2008 final roster:

1. (10) Marion Barber RB
2. (11) Clinton Portis RB
3. (30) Terrell Owens WR
4. (31) Donovan McNabb QB
5. (50) Tony Gonzalez TE (Keeper)
6. (51) Jamal Lewis RB
7. (70) Lee Evans WR
8. (71) Brandon Marshall WR (Keeper)
9. (90) Braylon Edwards WR
10. (91) Minnesota DEF
11. (110) Rashard Mendenhall RB
12. (111) Vernon Davis TE
13. (130) Donnie Avery WR
14. (131) Ryan Longwell K
15. (150) Matt Cassel QB (Keeper)

Favre$Footlong's Final 2009 Roster
I have included the 2010 draft round and pick overall (overall pick is in parentheses) value of each player on Favre$Footlong's final roster followed by the name of the player, player's position, total # of fantasy starts for the season (a * indicates developmental eligibility for 2010's draft; some players were on more than one team but their total starts for all teams is listed); and total fantasy points scored by the player for the 16 fantasy week season (which is not subject to the # of starts):

1. (6) Marion Barber RB (1st Rd Keeper Value); 14 fantasy starts; 168.25 fp
2. (15) 
3. (26) Terrell Owens WR; 4 fantasy starts; 137.85 fp
4. (35) Donovan McNabb QB; 13 fantasy starts; 295.17 fp
4. (35) Tony Gonzalez TE (Keeper); 15 fantasy starts; 162.35 fp
5. (46)
6. (55) J Stewart RB; 8 fantasy starts (7 with Favre$Footlong + 1 with CustodianPandemonium); 200.82 fp
7. (66) Brandon Marshall WR (Keeper); 14 fantasy starts; 220.90 fp
8. (75)
9. (86)
10. (95) Minnesota DEF; 15 fantasy starts; 132.00 fp
11. (106)
12. (115) 
13. (126) 
14. (135) Ryan Longwell K; 15 fantasy starts; 141.00 fp
15. (146) S Rice WR; 11 fantasy starts; 194.60 fp (Undrafted)
15. (146) R Cartwright RB; *3 fantasy starts; 96.84 fp (Undrafted)
15. (146) T Ginn Jr. WR; *1 fantasy starts; 127.64 fp (Undrafted)
15. (146) K Britt WR; *3 fantasy starts; 110.47 fp (Undrafted)
15. (146) J Jones WR; *3 fantasy starts; 128.52 fp (Undrafted)
15. (146) V Shiancoe TE; *0 fantasy starts; 150.30 fp (Undrafted)
15. (146) P Garcon WR; *0 fantasy starts; 110.25 fp (Undrafted)

Looking Ahead at 2010
Favre$Footlong is poised to stay competitive with the roster he finished with in 2009. If T Gonzalez TE does not retire Kessler may very likely keep his tradition alive of retaining the future Hall of Famer. He's taken a top TE in the 4th round before (see 2008's drafting of A Gates TE). Another 4th round payment for Kessler seems plausible. However, V Shiancoe TE is only worth a 15th round draft pick and has been producing top TE fantasy points the past year and a half. Plus he has developmental status eligibility. Will he keep 2 TEs again?

Kessler also has a couple of dynamic WRs available to him to keep. B Marshall (rd 7), S Rice (rd 15), and possibly P Garcon (rd 15). We have no idea what will happen to Marshall in the offseason. He cleaned out his locker completely at the end of the season in Denver and it is no surprise Denver is probably shopping him as trade bait. It is no longer beneficial for both sides for Marshall to remain in Denver. Will Marshall get a good QB to throw to him? There is a lot of uncertainty about Marshall's ability to produce in fantasy football for 2010. We'll need to wait until closer to the 2010 season before knowing a bit better. But S Rice WR is a solid keeper. If Kessler knows anything about fantasy football he'll keep S Rice. Rice will surely produce if Favre is back in Minnesota. There's no way Favre retires yet. He's having too much fun. T Owens, T Ginn Jr., K Britt, and J Jones are not worth considering seriously as keepers.

In the RB department, M Barber, (1st rd), J Stewart (6th rd; to have foot surgery; 2 surgeries actually), and R Cartwright (15th rd) places Kessler into a tough position. He has no solid RB depth. Barber has two talented RBs ready to take his job whenever it is to happen. J Stewart, while very talented, shares carries with D Williams but has frequently been injured. Hopefully these surgeries allow him to recover in time for 2010. Cartwright only became the starter once C Portis was injured. We also have no idea what the Redskins will do with Shanahan as their head coach. He used quite the merry-go-round of RBs the last few years he was head coach in Denver. My guess is that Kessler may want to keep one of these but again he will need to wait until the preseason clarifies the choice. He may want to forget keeping a RB altogether and trade a TE or WR or both for a solid RB later on during the fantasy draft. It is hard to say. Not keeping Barber leaves him with a lot of early round draft picks (1st, 2d, and 3rd will be free).

D McNabb QB is also an interesting consideration. He could easily be traded to another team in the NFL needing a QB. You also never know which D McNabb will appear on game day. Will it be the fantasy stud or dud? He, too, is not a clear choice for 2010.

Regardless, Kessler will pick a good fantasy football team name in 2010.

My Best Guess at Favre$Footlong's 2010 Keepers
T Gonzalez TE (4th rd), V Shiancoe TE (15th rd developmental), S Rice WR (15th rd), and B Marshall WR (7th rd) will be the players retained. If not Marshall then M Barber RB (1st rd) or J Stewart RB (6th rd) will be kept, but I lean toward Stewart more on account of the early draft picks available to Kessler if Barber is not kept. Kessler may even elect to only keep 3 players instead of 4.

Brothers Keeper Third Party Consultant's Best Guess at Favre$Footlong's 2010 Keepers 
"jstew, marshall, rice, and i guess garcon or shiancoe if farve comes back. he had a great draft but all the good players that have value now are gone [V Davis TE; R Mendenhall RB; even had J Charles RB on his roster at one point]."

Monday, January 18, 2010

Added Tags to Posts

I have added tags to the previous posts. Hopefully the tags are helpful. Not sure what all to tag just yet.

Quick questions for readers to respond to:
1. Should I link to players stats? If so, which stats? Do you know any HTML code that I can add to my blog that will quickly pull up the players stats if your cursor hovers over the name of the player (e.g., see the NET Bible Tagger)?

2. I really enjoy the music from Sam Spence's NFL films track titled Round Up. Would it be annoying to have that music on this blog when you visit it?

3. If I were to try to get a news feed of twitter traffic concerning the #NFL would you be interested in it? Are there other news feeds you think I could somehow post in a gadget/widget on this blog that you find helpful that I should know about related to fantasy football?

4. Any other suggestions?

Concussed about Concussions: NFL Injuries and the Fantasy Football Player

The 2009 NFL season saw a lot more coverage concerning concussions. This directly impacted the fantasy teams of numerous individuals nationwide. Did you own K Warner QB, B Westbrook RB, B Roethlisberger QB, D Jackson WR, J Lewis RB, Jeff Ulbrich LB etc.? The media coverage was so strong that the NFL finally changed its rules midseason for NFL teams that therefore requires an independent analysis of concussion cases before players are able to return to the grid iron.

This is actually a good thing. The thing that makes concussions so dangerous is that if you are not recovered from a previous concussion and sustain another one, it could be fatal. What's worse? Losing a few fantasy starts or points or games or trophy or money, or is it worse to lose a NFL player's life? It would sadden me to ever think that fantasy owners ever had the power to persuade what took place on the football field when it came to the physical well being of another person's life. The hords of people who want player X to play before recovery would be more than guilty. Let's take a breather here and remember, it's just a game. It's not worth putting people's lives at stake. Not even H Ward WR should call out his very own QB in B Roethlisberger to play before he should.

Congrats to the NFL and NFLPA for taking the steps to be more cautious about concussions. One of my favorite writers on injuries has harped on this for years before this season's dramatic uptick in sensitivity to concussions. It is finally being addressed. More can and could and should be done (like better helmets). Jon Kitna was not being smart when he desired to play a few years ago after suffering a concussion in Detroit as their starting QB. I don't care if you lose your starting job you've worked your entire life to obtain. It's not worth the potential cost of one's life. It's not even for a noble cause. It's a game. Take a knee. Sit the extra game and fantasy owners will adjust, even if grudgingly. Go to IR. Retire perhaps. There is life to be enjoyed after football and fantasy owners always have next season.

Here's some links to some noteworthy articles on the subject:

http://www.cnn.com/2009/HEALTH/01/26/athlete.brains/index.html

http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=5377319n&tag=contentMain;contentBody

http://www.cjr.org/behind_the_news/head_cases.php?page=all

http://www.nfl.com/news/story?id=09000d5d8157fa41&template=with-video-with-comments&confirm=true

http://www.nfl.com/news/story?id=09000d5d8157f3a2&template=with-video-with-comments&confirm=true

http://www.nfl.com/news/story?id=09000d5d8157312d&template=with-video-with-comments&confirm=true

http://www.nfl.com/news/story?id=09000d5d81519ef9&template=with-video-with-comments&confirm=true

http://www.nfl.com/news/story?id=09000d5d8150aca7&template=with-video-with-comments&confirm=true

http://www.nfl.com/nflnetwork/story?id=09000d5d814af71a&template=with-video-with-comments&confirm=true

http://www.nfl.com/news/story?id=09000d5d814905c7&template=with-video-with-comments&confirm=true

http://www.nfl.com/news/story?id=09000d5d81477996&template=without-video-with-comments&confirm=true

http://www.nfl.com/news/story?id=09000d5d814780e0&template=without-video&confirm=true

http://www.nfl.com/news/story?id=09000d5d81471cc6&template=with-video-with-comments&confirm=true

http://www.nfl.com/news/story?id=09000d5d814631c1&template=with-video-with-comments&confirm=true

http://www.nfl.com/news/story?id=09000d5d81457e4a&template=with-video-with-comments&confirm=true

http://www.nfl.com/news/story?id=09000d5d8145a2f4&template=with-video-with-comments&confirm=true

http://www.nfl.com/news/story?id=09000d5d8144e038&template=with-video-with-comments&confirm=true

http://www.nfl.com/news/story?id=09000d5d81447b9d&template=with-video-with-comments&confirm=true

6/28/10 Update: Active NFL player in 20's shows sign of brain damage: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/29/sports/football/29henry.html

http://www.blackheartgoldpants.com/2010/6/29/1541234/chris-henry-had-cte-before-death

http://www.blackheartgoldpants.com/2010/6/29/1543442/with-cte-the-n-does-not-equal-one

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2010/06/30/chris-henrys-lasting-impact/

7/27/10 Update: Posters in the NFL Lockeroom
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/27/sports/football/27concussion.html?_r=4&ref=sports

8/25/10 Update: Philadelphia Eagles' Trainer's Solution:
http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/columnists/20100824_Rich_Hofmann__Eagles_trainer_s_concussion_plan_is_one_of_a_kind.html

9/13/10 Update:
http://www.hbo.com/#/real-sports-with-bryant-gumbel/episodes/0/161-august-17-2010/video/head-injuries.html/eNrjcmbOYM7XLMtMSc13zEvMqSzJTHbOzytJrShhLlTPz0mBCQYkpqf6JeamcjIysjGySSeWluQX5CRW2pYUlaayMQIAVKYXOA==

11/11/10 Update
http://www.purdue.edu/newsroom/research/2010/101007NaumanFootball.html

8/06/11 Update:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2011/jul/19/nfl-star-brain-injuries-destroyed

Saturday, January 16, 2010

Looking Ahead 2010: CustodianPandemonium

This is the second post of a new series of blogs covering each team from Brothers Keeper in detail. We began with the last place team (Kabuki Strikes Back) and are moving to the top of the league standings as it stood at the end of the 2009 fantasy football season. Second up CustodianPandemonium.

Overview of R Smith's Brothers Keeper History
2007 CustodianPandemonium: 7-7-0 (8th Place) 1349.14 points; 17 transactions
2008 The Cleaning Lady: 6-7-0 (3d Place) 1288.31 points; 11 transactions
2009 CustodianPandemonium: 5-8-0 (9th Place) 1279.83 points; 14 transactions

2009 End of Season Commentary
If you were to compare R Smith's Brothers Keeper history to J Fullerton's Brothers Keeper history you would see virtually identical win-loss ratios for all three seasons. Their final position in the league standings all depends on the schedule of opponents in the playoffs. This year (2009) neither team made the playoffs for the first time. The expectations were high for each team to succeed this year. So, what happened?
 
In 2007, Brothers Keeper initial season, CustodianPandemonium (R Smith) lost to the league champion Yank (J Smith) in the first round of the playoffs by a mere 2.75 points. 2007 also brought the perennial fantasy football stud W Welker WR (currently on IR for a torn MCL and ACL and hated by hospital staff [The Onion]) to his roster as a free agent pick up. In 2008, The Cleaning Lady (R Smith) picked up the talented D Jackson WR as a free agent.

Loaded with WR talent in the last two rounds of the 2009 keeper draft (W Welker 14 rd; D Jackson 15 rd) and with the 7th draft pick position (which happened to be the 3d overall pick because 4 teams prior to him used their 1st rd pick to keep a previous roster member) he decided not to take S Jackson RB (who was drafted in 2007 and kept in 2008) again and go with former Yer X-MOM's (P Smith) star B Westbrook RB (who P Smith drafted in 2007 and kept in 2008). Yer X-MOM drafted S Jackson RB the very next pick at the 8th draft pick position (4th overall). This may have made all the difference for both teams. One won the championship and one missed the playoffs all together. For CustodianPandemonium it became a disaster since B Westbrook RB only scored a total of 73.45 in 2009 and was injured half of the season (in 13 weeks of fantasy play 6 weeks missed due to injuries and 1 more week off for a bye). K Warner QB (The Great Unknowable Freak of the NFL?), had also been on Yer X-MOM's 2008 roster as a free agent pickup was drafted by CustodianPandemonium in the 2d round.

 Weeks 1, 5, and 6 were the only weeks of the 2009 season that Westbrook produced anything near his 1st round draft pick value. In Custodian's own words, "Brian Westbrook is the most overrated sissy in the NFL. Has the endurance of a 60 year old woman... Well, maybe not endurance. 'Fragility' would be a better fit." On the other hand, S Jackson RB produced 228.70 fantasy points for the year and only missed the championship game (week 16) due to injury for Yer X-MOM. It was hard not to like B Westbrook RB in 2009's draft. The previous two seasons saw him score 334.48 fp in 15 games played (2007) and 249.70 fp in 14 games played (2008). The entire Eagles offense used to run through Westbrook either running the ball or passing it to him. The total yards from scrimmage piled up fantasy points galore. It is also conceivable to understand that R Smith was tired of S Jackson RB missing 4 games a year due to injury in 2007 and 2008 and why he might be passed up.
 
When asked to comment about his team's lack of success despite the amount of talent, CustodianPandemonium reflected the same issues and one additional one, namely, his wedding day in the midst of the season:
Trust me, I'm as confused as you are on that one. Westbrook was obviously a big bust for me, but other than that it is hard to say. Had a couple of games that I lost by less than 5 points, so that's just unfortunate. There were a few other injuries that got me as well, (most notably Welker in the first few weeks). And I admittedly goofed up by focusing on my wedding a couple of weeks and forgot/didn't get time to edit the lineup as much as I'd have liked to.
 
Going into the season I felt I had a really strong team based on a ridiculously good WR core. They couldn't stay consistent though. Steve Smith from the Giants started out just freaking amazing. And after that he went up and down, averaging around 10 or 11 points, not the 20ish he did previously. Vincent Jackson was real nice up through midseason too. But the last 4 or 5 weeks he's been garbage.
 
Yeah I just checked the season stats. I have 5 of the top 16 WRs, lol
On October 24th, looking to salvage his season, CustodianPandemonium (R Smith) traded D Bowe WR to Yer X-MOM (P Smith) for F Jones RB and T Choice RB to offset the need at RB. The trade was a moot point in the season for both teams, but it was one in which each team traded from their strengths to assist their weakness. CustodianPandemonium had numerous WRs inactive each week while Yer X-MOM had numerous RBs inactive each week. An easy trade was made. Yer X-MOM's P Smith regretted he had not taken J Stewart RB in the trade to make it an even 2 for 2 player deal. J Stewart was offered and neither team foresaw D Williams RB injuries late in the year making J Stewart RB a great playoff commodity. Instead he ended up in free agency to be picked up later by Favre$Footlong (D Kessler).
 
2009 was not a wasted year. CustodianPandemonium (R Smith) did what he does best and picked up another great undrafted free agent in J Charles RB. Charles was only started twice over the course of the 2009 season (once by Favre$Footlong [D Kessler] and once by CustodianPandemonium [R Smith]) and is therefore eligible as a developmental status keeper for 2010. With the last three seasons of talented undrafted free agent pickups I admire CustodianPandemonium's ability to build winning fantasy teams. His team performed lower than my expectations/projections and he should be poised to do well in the next few years as a team to be reckoned with.
 


CustodianPandemonium's 2009 Draft
CustodianPandemonium (R Smith) had the 7th overall draft pick position in the 2009 draft thanks to his strong playoff performance gaining him the bronze medal trophy (3d place). His 2009 draft results are thus (noting that those who were kept from his 2008 final roster:
 
1. (7) Brian Westbrook RB
2. (14) Kurt Warner QB
3. (27) Vincent Jackson WR
4. (34) Dwayne Bowe WR
5. (47) Darren McFadden RB
6. (54) Jonathan Stewart RB
7. (67) Kevin Smith RB (Keeper)
8. (74) Baltimore DEF
9. (87) Steve Smith WR
10. (94) Hines Ward WR
11. (107) Kevin Boss TE
12. (114) Jason Campbell QB
13. (127) Neil Rackers K
14. (134) Wes Welker WR (Keeper)
15. (147) DeSean Jackson WR (Keeper)

CustodianPandemonium's Final 2009 Roster
I have included the 2010 draft round and pick overall (overall pick is in parentheses) value of each player on CustodianPandemonium's final roster followed by the name of the player, player's position, total # of fantasy starts for the season (only counting through week 13 because he did not enter the playoffs; a * indicates developmental eligibility for 2010's draft; some players were on more than one team but their total starts for all teams is listed); and total fantasy points scored by the player for the 16 fantasy week season (which is not subject to the # of starts):

1. (2) Brian Westbrook RB; 6 fantasy starts; 73.45 fp
2. (19) Kurt Warner QB; 11 fantasy starts; 283.12 fp
3. (22) Vincent Jackson WR; 9 fantasy starts; 181.45 fp
4. (39) 
5. (42)
6. (59) Kevin Smith RB; 11 fantasy starts; 161.15 fp
7. (62) Felix Jones RB; 6 fantasy starts (1 with Yer X-MOM + 5 with CustodianPandimonium); 130.06 fp
8. (79) Baltimore DEF; 12 fantasy starts; 155.00 fp
9. (82) Steve Smith NYG WR; 7 fantasy starts; 210.00 fp
10. (99) Hines Ward WR; *3 fantasy starts; 187.35 fp
11. (102)
12. (119)
13. (122)
13. (122) Wes Welker WR; 10 fantasy starts; 230.79 fp
14. (139) DeSean Jackson WR; 6 fantasy starts; 219.75 fp
15. (142) Jamal Charles RB; *2 fantasy starts (1 with Favre$Footlong + 1 with CustodianPadnimonium); 248.28 fp (Undrafted)
15. (142) Joe Flacco QB; *2 fantasy starts; 263.12 fp (Undrafted)
15. (142) Tashard Choice RB; *0 fantasy starts; 76.50 fp (Undrafted)
15. (142) Benjamin Watson TE; 5 fantasy starts (1 with Favre$Footlong + 4 with CustodianPadnimonium); 79.20 fp (Undrafted)
15. (142) John Carney K; 7 fantasy starts (1 with Yer X-MOM + 6 with CustodianPandimonium); 85.00 fp (Undrafted)

Looking Ahead at 2010
The 2010 draft will be stacked in R Smith's favor on three fronts: draft position, developmental eligibility, and WRs. Let's look at the first: draft position. He has the number 2 draft pick position. I highly doubt he keeps B Westbrook RB as a keeper because he may have single handedly burned down 2009 for R Smith. Once spurned an owner may never return. For example S Jackson RB was bypassed after being on CustodianPandemonium's roster the previous two injury plagued seasons. Next, his late draft picks are stocked with talent leaving the number two draft position an advantage through most of the draft in the odd number rounds. The even number rounds are harder because it is the second to last pick in he round. If other teams use early and mid rounds to keep players then this isn't so bad for CustodianPandemonium.

Second, CustodianPandemonium has a few developmental eligible players he could retain easily. Brothers Keeper rules dictate that one developmental player, that is, one who has been started 3 or less times in fantasy play during a fantasy season (including playoffs) is eligible to be kept for the next season along side 3 other keepers from a fantasy roster. H Ward WR (10th rd), J Charles RB (15 rd), J Flacco QB (15 rd), and T Choice RB (15 rd) all have value at the draft position they could be retained in. H Ward WR will be 34 years old for the 2010 season and therefore probably not as attractive as the other 3 younger players for the long term building of the fantasy team. T Choice RB may still be playing 3d string behind M Barber RB and the talented F Jones RB in the Dallas Cowboys depth charts. He too is doubtful to be kept as a developmental status keeper unless knee injuries occur to the two RBs ahead of him on the Cowboys depth chart in the remaining 2009-2010 NFL playoffs. So the decision comes down to 2 talented players in J Flacco QB and J Charles RB. My best guess is that J Flacco could easily be drafted in the 2010 fantasy draft while J Charles would be a more desired fantasy producer. Thus J Charles RB, if he remains the KC Chiefs featured RB will be the developmental status player kept and for a great value in round 15. Many teams will be jealous of this advantage of talented developmental eligible players.

The third strength that is obvious is the strength of the WRs on CustodianPandemonium's roster. It will be a matter of selecting who has the best projections for the 2010 fantasy season. W Welker may still be hindered by his aforementioned injury. He could be kept and stashed away as a developmental pick in the 2011 draft. Or CustodianPandemonium may decide to forgo that route and go for a dominant 2010 fantasy season by retaining V Jackson WR, D Jackson WR, and K Jones RB. If W Welker is kept my best guess is that K Jones is not. That would mean 3 WRs and 1 RB (J Charles) would the foundation for 2010. However, if the prospects for K Jones are good enough and Welker is still desired then V Jackson will not be kept. His 3d round value would be the detracting factor for him since all others are clearly a value at their positions later in the draft.

My Best Guess at CustodianPandemonium's 2010 Keepers
TBA

Brothers Keeper Third Party Consultant's Best Guess at CustodianPandemonium's 2010 Keepers: 
"kind of hard but i would go vjax, desean, charles and i would probly go welker just cuz maybe u can trade him or even keep him for next yr if not i would go steve smith"

Saturday, January 9, 2010

Looking Ahead 2010: Kabuki Strikes Back

This will be the first post of a new series of blogs covering each team from Brothers Keeper in detail. We will begin with the last place team and move to the top of the league standings as it stood at the end of the 2009 fantasy football season. First up J Fullerton's Kabuki Strikes Back

Overview of J Fullerton's Brothers Keeper History
2007 RETURN OF KABUKI: 7-7-0 (2d Place) 1415.26 points; 9 transactions
2008 KABOOOOOOOKI: 6-7-0 (5th Place) 1202.07 points; 5 transactions
2009 Kabuki Strikes Back: 3-10-0 (10th Place) 1298.73 points; 8 transactions

2009 End of Season Commentary
In 2009, J Fullerton's Kabuki Strikes Back never struck back. It was more like a strike out. The only place to go from 2009 to 2010 is up in the standings. In 2007 Kabuki was runner up in the championship game to Yank. 2008 saw a decline into 5th place when the dust settled. There was also a big trade in 2008 between Kabuki and R Johnson's Simba's Buttkicker! Kabuki sent M Turner RB (4th round pick) to Simba's Buttkicker! for L Tomlinson RB (1st round keeper). This stocked Kabuki's team with 3 keepers all worth 1st round picks in the 2009 draft. L Tomlinson RB, B Jacobs RB, and P Manning QB all 1st round value were easily kept for the 1st, 2d, and 3d round draft picks. Imagine getting P Manning QB (3 time NFL MVP), B Jacobs RB, and L Tomlinson RB (the 2006 NFL MVP) in your 1st 3 rounds in 2006, 2007, or 2008. Those would be amazing building blocks to any team in any keeper league. Even this writer had big expectations for Kabuki's 2009. The Outlook was brilliant.

While P Manning QB won his 4th NFL MVP in a landslide, 2009, however, was not like the previous 3 years. L Tomlinson RB and B Jacobs RB both shared running the ball on their respective teams thus lowering their fantasy points. Overall, if any team fails on two of their first 3 draft picks in a fantasy draft, either by injury or loss of production issues your team is going to have a tough time recovering from that loss. It can be accomplished, it just is hard to do. L Tomlinson scored 168.7 total fantasy points and B Jacobs scored 144.7 total fantasy points. The trade was basically a moot point for both Kabuki and Simba's Buttkicker! M Turner scored 149.85 points in only 10 weeks of availability.

For what it's worth I liked Kabuki's 2009 draft strategy and keeper league team building skills. Out of the 10 teams in this league he was the only one with the ability to keep 3 players worth a 1st round draft pick if kept, and he exercised that option to the groans or droolings of other teams. I admired the work that went into being able to do something along those lines (well within the rules) but unattainable to other teams in the league. It is just unfortunate that B Jacobs and L Tomlinson underperformed their high draft values, picks, and preseason projections. I'm reminded of a great poem:
Oh, somewhere in this favored land the sun is shining bright;
The band is playing somewhere, and somewhere hearts are light,
And somewhere men are laughing, and somewhere children shout;
But there is no joy in Mudville - mighty Casey has struck out.
So as a result this trophy is for you Mr. Fullerton:


Kabuki Strikes Back's 2009 Draft
Kabuki Strikes Back had the 3d draft pick position in the 2009 draft. The 5th place win in the 2008 consolation bracket earned Fullerton a good spot on the draft board. His 2009 draft results are thus (noting that the first 3 overall were all worth a 1st rd pick as keepers and are thus interchangeable):

1. (3) LaDainian Tomlinson RB (1st Rd Keeper Value)
2. (18) Peyton Manning QB (1st Rd Keeper Value)
3. (23) Brandon Jacobs RB (1st Rd Keeper Value)
4. (38) Knowshon Moreno RB
5. (43) Chad Ochocinco WR
6. (58) Santana Moss WR
7. (63) Carson Palmer QB
8. (78) Michael Crabtree WR
9. (83) Stephen Gostkowski K
10. (98) Chicago DEF
11. (103) Kellen Winslow TE
12. (118) Leon Washington RB
13. (123) Derrick Mason WR
14. (138) Le'Ron McClain RB
15. (143) Chris Henry WR

R.I.P. C Henry WR. I thought you had the talent too.

Kabuki Strikes Back's Final 2009 Roster
I have included the 2010 draft round and pick overall (overall pick is in parentheses) value of each player on Kabuki Strikes Back's final roster followed by the name of the player, player's position, total # of fantasy starts for the season (only counting through week 13 because he did not enter the playoffs; a * indicates developmental eligibility for 2010's draft; some players were on more than one team but their toal starts for all teams is listed); and total fantasy points scored by the player for the 16 fantasy week season (which is not subject to the # of starts):

1. (1) LaDainian Tomlinson RB (1st Rd Keeper Value); 10 fantasy starts; 168.70 fp
1. (1) Peyton Manning QB (1st Rd Keeper Value); 12 fantasy starts; 379.70 fp
1. (1) Brandon Jacobs RB (1st Rd Keeper Value); 11 fantasy starts; 144.70 fp
2. (20)
3. (21)
4. (40) Knowshon Moreno RB; 6 fantasy starts; 151.90 fp
5. (41) Chad Ochocinco WR; 10 fantasy starts; 177.55 fp
6. (60) Santana Moss WR; 5 fantasy starts; 133.63 fp
7. (61) Carson Palmer QB; *1 fantasy start; 256.06 fp
8. (80) Michael Crabtree WR; *1 fantasy start; 89.25 fp
9. (81)
10. (100)
11. (101) Kellen Winslow TE; 10 fantasy starts; 151.90 fp
12. (120)
13. (121) Derrick Mason WR; 10 fantasy starts; 166.60 fp
14. (140)
15. (141) Chester Taylor RB; *3 fantasy starts; 108.65 fp (Undrafted)
15. (141) Todd Heap TE; 6 fantasy starts (3 teams); 118.85 fp (Undrafted)
15. (141) Ryan Moats RB; *1 fantasy start; 83.30 fp (Undrafted)
15. (141) Nick Folk K; 5 fantasy starts; 87.00 fp (Undrafted)
15. (141)Seattle DEF; 5 fantasy starts; 103.00 fp (Undrafted)

Looking Ahead at 2010
Depending on who is kept, Fullerton has a pretty solid number of guys to choose from his 2009 final roster. Again he could use his top 3 picks for 1st rd valued keepers but I suspect that will not be the case. Maybe P Manning QB and B Jacobs RB are kept but maybe only P Manning QB is kept. My guess is that Kabuki will have at least 2 of his first 3 rounds open to drafting free talent. Maybe all 3. If P Manning QB is kept that means he does not have a pick until the end of round 2 and the beginning of round 3. He either has to go with P Manning at QB or decide C Palmer is his team's future. Palmer is a 7th round value draft pick in 2010 and has developmental eligibility. C Palmer QB has good value in this position but P Manning is really the top of the line QB. P Manning is much more consistent and his higher fantasy point totals are attractive. Both QBs could easily be retained leaving Kabuki with 2 more from his roster to keep and a talented QB to trade away in either Manning or Palmer.

Unless R Moats RB is the clear choice to start in Houston next year, I doubt any of the undrafted 15th round players are kept. That will probably mean K Moreno RB is kept. Otherwise no RB is kept. This might be a reason why B Jacobs RB is kept. If the preseason projections for K Moreno RB are low look for B Jacobs RB to be retained again despite the down year in 2009. We really never can tell what a player will do in the future. 2010 may be totally different than 2009 in terms of fantasy values. There is a big shake up in the NY Giants coaching this offseason and it will be interesting to see what the Offensive Coordinator's philosophy will be. B Jacobs RB is talented no matter what. But if his preseason fantasy projections are comparable to K Moreno RB then Moreno would be the solid value pick worth a 4th rd draft pick while B Jacobs RB might be the safer pick but worth a 1st round pick. It's really a 50/50 shot on which one of these two will be chosen. My guess is on Moreno but Jacobs would notbe surprising. I doubt both are kept. That would leave

That leaves one more pick to be desired, if not two more. My guess is on either C Ochocinco WR or M Crabtree WR. D Mason WR, K Winslow TE, T Heap TE, and S Moss WR just do not seem like the keeper value types. Any of them are surely mediocre. Ochocinco and Crabtree pose the better options though. Crabtree is all on potential though. If he turns out to be an elite WR he is at a very good value for a long while beginning 2010 at an 8th round draft pick value. Historically, Crabtree's QB A Smith is no C Palmer QB. We know Ochocinco has a better QB. Plus, common fantasy football wisdom says that WRs are not usually in their prime until their 3rd season in the NFL. How much will Crabtree's contract holdout hurt this sage advice is yet to be determined. Ochocinco is the more dependable pick but Crabtree has upside and value in the future. If C Palmer is not kept as a developmental then Crabtree is the go to guy in that category. C Taylor RB and R Moats RB just do not appeal to anyone as worthy

My Best Guess at Kabuki Strikes Back's 2010 Keepers
P Manning QB, K Moreno RB, C Ochocinco WR, and C Palmer QB. If not K Moreno which frees up earlier draft picks, then B Jacobs at RB but only because he has a late 2d round draft pick. If not C Palmer then M Crabtree WR at developmental. My gut feeling is that Kabuki goes for the established players. There's no reason to risk too much of the future on Moreno and Crabtree if they are not yet elite. On a long shot, maybe only P Manning and C Ochocinco are kept thus freeing up more draft picks. An elite QB, a quality RB, an established WR, and building for the future.

Brothers Keeper Third Party Consultant's Best Guess at Kabuki Strikes Back's 2010 Keepers
"manning, moreno, ochocinco and crabtree"

"my best guess would be he picks manning,ocho,moreno and no way he lets go off crabtree. but the surpise out of all these players could be in the draft santana moss(ie eddie royal 08yr) a small welker type with a lot of potential in a short passing offense. shanny made a star out of royal and a fool out of most who drafted royal after he left...just something to ponder..."

Wednesday, January 6, 2010

2009 A Year in Review: The Year of Yer X-MOM

In review of this year's Brother's Keeper Fantasy Football League: a.k.a. "The Year of Yer X-MOM"

The shot rang out: The Commissioner (M Peltonen) emailed the league. The 2009 Brother's Keeper league opened with 2008's teams declaring their keepers by Sunday August 9, 2009.

1st pick: Simba's ButtKicker! (R Johnson): M Turner RB (3); R White WR (4); NYG DEF (12)

2d pick: Yankinfowlsandfeline (J Smith): M Jones-Drew RB (2); M Colston WR (3); A Rodgers QB (12)

3d pick: Kabuki  Strikes Back (J Fullerton): L Tomlinson RB (1); P Manning QB (1); B Jacobs RB (1)

4th pick: Redmans CatPunters (D Pilcher): T Brady QB (1); R Wayne WR (2); M Forte RB (4); *A Bryant WR (15)

5th pick: Sea Buzzards (M Peltonen): F Gore RB (1); L Fitzgerald WR (3); G Jennings WR (7)

6th pick: CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS (R Smith): D Brees QB (1); R Moss WR (4); T Hightower RB (15)

7th pick: CustodianPandimonium (R Smith): K Smith RB (7); W Welker WR (14); D Jackson RB (15)

8th pick: Yer X-MOM (P Smith): A Johnson WR (4); J Witten TE (10); S Slaton RB (11); *C Johnson RB (15)

9th pick: Ghost (B Garner): A Peterson RB (2); Cal Johnson WR (4); J Cutler QB (6); *M Ryan QB (15)

10th pick: Favre$Footlong (D Kessler): T Gonzalez TE (5); B Marshall WR (8); M Cassel QB (15)

* means developmental

Next came the 2009 Brother's Keeper Fantasy Football BBQ Draft in Slidell, LA on Saturday August 29th, 2009. A day to remember in photos:

The Draft Room (from left to right: B Garner [half pictured], R Smith, R Johnson, M Peltonen, and D Kessler)

The Food

So Good
So very Good

We had our fill... We ate like kings I tell you!

Two Conspirators (J Smith and D Pilcher)


From left to right: R Smith, R Smith, J Smith, D Pilcher, B Garner

Draft day recap:
We had an excellent set up for the draft. Many thanks to all who organized it. Preparations were made beforehand to meet in Slidell, LA. All were in attendance except J Fullerton. He did his draft via his proxy, B Garner. If anyone was stacked with information, it was B Garner looking at J Fullerton's preferences or R Smith sharing with R Smith. However, J Fullerton did not have any picks in the first 3 rounds of the draft. The advantage was minimal.

J Smith provided an excellent spread of meats/BBQ specially prepared for the occassion. He drafted well even having BBQ'd all that delicious food. Many praises were sent his way.

M Peltonen had a busy draft day. He picked up P Smith who flew in from Dallas, TX at the airport in New Orleans, LA (with a terrible accident and traffic on the way back to Slidell) followed by a breakfast at I.H.O.P. where it was readily joked about the NFL style menu that was going to help the drafting abilities of M Peltonen and P Smith. M Peltonen and P Smith then picked up the store bought goods for the draft and proceeded to set up the draft room for its activities.

There they met R Johnson who was furiously trying to figure out his first pick in the draft from his air conditioned office. After an hour long banter between the three, it was time for P Smith to nap and M Peltonen to prep for the draft and Sunday School for the next day.

Draft time arrived in all its glory. A great draft board display was accessible by the Commissioner M Peltonen and picks and teams were set up as the draft went along. For each person at the draft table P Smith played DJ and we all heard songs chosen specifically for each drafter. Some highlights include, "Sympathy for the Devil," "Bad Moon Rising," Bach's Toccata and Fuge in D Minor," "O Death," "Lonesome Valley," and "Topol-If I Were A Rich Man" for D Pilcher's Redmans CatPunters; ADD MORE "Veggie Tales Theme Song," "The Lion Sleeps Tonight," "I'm Too Sexy," "La Bamba," and "Flight of the Bumblebee" for D Kessler's Favre$Footlong; "The Man in Me," "Rhino Skin," "The Wanderer," and "Celestial Soda Pop" for M Peltonen's Sea Buzzards; "Glory Days," "Hero," "Born in the USA," "I Believe I Can Fly," and the most funny song of the night, "All Star" for R Johnson's Simba's Buttkicker!

We partook of the food prior to and during the draft... even had a 7th round stretch or "intermission" for the old timers to empty their bladders and the youngsters to refill their drinks and plates. So what did D Kessler do?
It was a riotous time of laughter, food, drinks, and drafting. The draft results are posted here.

After 13 weeks of regular season play weeks 14-16 were reserved for the playoffs with the following results:

2009 Brother's Keeper Final Standings:
Champion: Yer X-MOM (P Smith)
2d Place: Sea Buzzards (M Peltonen)
3d Place: CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS (R Smith)
4th Place: Simba's Buttkicker! (R Johnson)
5th Place: Yankinfowlsandfeline (J Smith)
6th Place: Redmans CatPunters (D Pilcher)
7th Place: Ghost (B Garner)
8th Place: Favre$Footlong (D Kessler)
9th Place: CustodianPandimonium (R Smith)
10th Place: Kabuki Strikes Back (J Fullerton)

Farewell 2009.
Here's a  look ahead at 2010's Brother's Keeper Fantasy Football Draft order:
1st pick: Kabuki Strikes back (J Fullerton)
2d pick: CustodianPandimonium (R Smith)
3d pick: Yankinfowlsandfeline (J Smith)
4th pick: Redmans CatPunters (D Pilcher)
5th pick: Ghost (B Garner)
6th pick: Favre$Footlong (D Kessler)
7th pick: CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS (R Smith)
8th pick: Simba's Buttkicker (R Johnson)
9th pick: Sea Buzzards (M Peltonen)
10th pick: Yer X-MOM (P Smith)