Question: Who produces the most accurate fantasy football projections on the internet? The FFLibrarian has taken it upon herself to rate the accuracy of fantasy projections produced by a good number of familiar fantasy football sites. Her work has been introduced on a previous blog. Now she has begun to collate her yearly rankings from her dead laptop's hard drive into a multiyear assessment of the accuracy of fantasy projections for each position. Here's the links to the following results:
QB
RB
WR
TE
I look forward to her assessment of this year's projections following the 2010 fantasy season. May her impending birth and last days of sleep go well.
Wednesday, July 14, 2010
Tuesday, July 13, 2010
Brothers Keeper Playoffs Format Discussion
The history of the Brothers Keeper Playoffs while short in its sample size, is large in its scope. The first year of the league's history saw a 3 week playoff format of 8 teams beginning in week 15. This was changed to begin in week 14 in 2008 and 2009. This move was toward the standard in the industry. Very few people like it when an NFL team clinches a playoff spot only to bench fantasy football's top performers in week 17... the week of the fantasy championships. So the easy sacrifice has been to play one less fantasy week and allow for a competitive week 16 championship. This is common sense across the industry.
However, there is an oddity still needing to be addressed in the Brothers Keeper playoff system. Right now 8 out of 10 teams make the playoffs. In fact, it is hard not to make the playoffs. Only one team has missed the playoffs twice in the 3 years of Brothers Keeper. Two of the other four teams who missed the playoffs were also league champions either the year before or the next year. The parity is kind of interesting. Most fantasy football leagues only sporting 10 teams will have either a 6 team or 4 team playoff. Definitely not an 8 team playoff. I'm all for thinking outside the box of conventional wisdom but there needs to be a forum to discuss the playoff format of Brothers Keeper for the future health of the league. So what are the pros and cons to the various playoff formats?
8 Team Playoff Format
Pros:
80% of the league gets to play in the final 3 weeks either in the playoffs or in. 2 out of three years the number 8 team in the playoffs has defeated the number 1 seeded team in the quarterfinals.
No one's feelings are hurt... except the 2 teams that don't make the playoffs at all.
Cons:
The 8 team format devalues 13 weeks of fantasy play. Too many teams make the playoffs. Why devalue the whole season for a mere 3 weeks of play. I understand desiring to include more teams in play to keep interest, but a leading team in the league can clinch the playoffs by week 8 or 9 and snooze for 4 or 5 weeks. That is not fun for a dominant team either. A playoff should reward a full season of play. An 8 team playoff does not reward those who succeed most of the season. In fact, it could be down right depressing if a number 8 seed team upsets a number 1 seed in the first round of the playoffs as in 2007 and 2009. That doesn't seem so interesting of a semi-final or championship when the strong teams don't make it. In fact the number 8 seed in 2007 and 2009 were both crushed once they lost later on in the playoffs.
In the worst case scenario an 8th seeded team wins the playoffs. That's just not cool. A sub .500 team makes the playoffs then wins it all? That's just not right. One 3 week hot streak is no reason to win a championship. The playoffs are too heavily valued and the regular season of play is devalued too much. Look at the last 3 years. 2007 saw a third place team with a 5-9 regular season record above two teams with 10 wins during the regular season. In 2008, another sub .500 team makes third place with a 6-7 record. Then in 2009 a 5-8 team made second place. Think about it for a moment. These teams were weak and now because of their performance will have a later draft pick in the following season's draft thus increasing the likelihood that they will remain weak for another season.
At least one team has made the playoffs all three years and has never had a winning regular season record (6-8; 6-7; 5-8). Does that encourage you to play hard in the regular season? It actually sounds depressing. Akin to Socialism's attempt to rob the rich and give to the poor.
Two teams don't get a chance at the playoffs or the consolation bracket.
6 Team Playoff Format
Pros:
This system rewards the top two teams of season play with a bye week. They have an instant shot at the semifinals to make the championship. They are spared the humiliation of being defeated by the number 8 or number 7 seeded teams in the quarterfinals. Plus, the top two teams have a reason to play hard at the end of the season especially if the number 3 or 4 team has a viable chance of gaining a bye week in the final weeks of the season.
This format still has over half the league (60%) interested in the last 3 weeks of play. This seems to correspond to the history of the league's playoffs where the top 5 teams have the best chance of advancing: In every single playoff in Brothers Keeper's history the number 5 team has advanced to play in the semifinal matchup against the winner of the number 8 v number 1 seeded team game. On the other half of the playoff format as it is currently, the number 4, 7, and number 6 seeded teams have never advanced to the semifinals. It has always been a number 2 v number 3 seeded matchup. That means that the same 50% of the league every season has not made the semifinals. Every year the number 4, 6, 7, 9, and 10 seeded teams has not made the semifinals. The 2, 3, and 5 teams have made it every year and they should being on the top half of league play by the regular season's end.
Who wouldn't like a chance at a bye week?
If it comes down to two teams tied for 5th place in their regular season record they both make it.
If multiple teams have the same record for 6th place the team with the best regular season point total advances, therefore making the quarterfinal more competitive with a good point scorer.
A consolation bracket could include the worst 4 teams thus prolonging their fun.
Cons: At most, one team could be below .500 on the regular season and make the playoffs.
4 Team Playoff Format
Pros:
The benefits here mimic the 6 team v 8 team playoff format except for one caveat. The playoffs for a 4 team playoff format is a week shorter. Only weeks 15 and 16 of the NFL season are employed to sift out a league champion. Another argument for a 4 team playoff is that it only includes the best teams. The cream of the crop get to duke it out. Worst case scenario the 4th seeded team wins the championship. Nice. Much easier to live with than a number 8 seeded champion with a record below .500.
The Talented Mr Roto, Matthew Berry advocates a 2 week 4 team playoff in his yearly "The Draft Day Manifesto 2010 edition: Your guide to winning your fantasy football league ... while having fun".
Fantasy football is for men. Men can handle it if they do not make the playoffs. Men are devalued if losers make the playoffs.
Cons:
If one wanted to consider a 4 team playoff instead of a 6 team playoff, you have eliminated the 5th place teams who have always made it to the seminfinals.
I have begun the discussion. Please add comments below in this Pro or Con format for which playoff format you would prefer.
However, there is an oddity still needing to be addressed in the Brothers Keeper playoff system. Right now 8 out of 10 teams make the playoffs. In fact, it is hard not to make the playoffs. Only one team has missed the playoffs twice in the 3 years of Brothers Keeper. Two of the other four teams who missed the playoffs were also league champions either the year before or the next year. The parity is kind of interesting. Most fantasy football leagues only sporting 10 teams will have either a 6 team or 4 team playoff. Definitely not an 8 team playoff. I'm all for thinking outside the box of conventional wisdom but there needs to be a forum to discuss the playoff format of Brothers Keeper for the future health of the league. So what are the pros and cons to the various playoff formats?
8 Team Playoff Format
Pros:
80% of the league gets to play in the final 3 weeks either in the playoffs or in. 2 out of three years the number 8 team in the playoffs has defeated the number 1 seeded team in the quarterfinals.
No one's feelings are hurt... except the 2 teams that don't make the playoffs at all.
Cons:
The 8 team format devalues 13 weeks of fantasy play. Too many teams make the playoffs. Why devalue the whole season for a mere 3 weeks of play. I understand desiring to include more teams in play to keep interest, but a leading team in the league can clinch the playoffs by week 8 or 9 and snooze for 4 or 5 weeks. That is not fun for a dominant team either. A playoff should reward a full season of play. An 8 team playoff does not reward those who succeed most of the season. In fact, it could be down right depressing if a number 8 seed team upsets a number 1 seed in the first round of the playoffs as in 2007 and 2009. That doesn't seem so interesting of a semi-final or championship when the strong teams don't make it. In fact the number 8 seed in 2007 and 2009 were both crushed once they lost later on in the playoffs.
In the worst case scenario an 8th seeded team wins the playoffs. That's just not cool. A sub .500 team makes the playoffs then wins it all? That's just not right. One 3 week hot streak is no reason to win a championship. The playoffs are too heavily valued and the regular season of play is devalued too much. Look at the last 3 years. 2007 saw a third place team with a 5-9 regular season record above two teams with 10 wins during the regular season. In 2008, another sub .500 team makes third place with a 6-7 record. Then in 2009 a 5-8 team made second place. Think about it for a moment. These teams were weak and now because of their performance will have a later draft pick in the following season's draft thus increasing the likelihood that they will remain weak for another season.
At least one team has made the playoffs all three years and has never had a winning regular season record (6-8; 6-7; 5-8). Does that encourage you to play hard in the regular season? It actually sounds depressing. Akin to Socialism's attempt to rob the rich and give to the poor.
Two teams don't get a chance at the playoffs or the consolation bracket.
6 Team Playoff Format
Pros:
This system rewards the top two teams of season play with a bye week. They have an instant shot at the semifinals to make the championship. They are spared the humiliation of being defeated by the number 8 or number 7 seeded teams in the quarterfinals. Plus, the top two teams have a reason to play hard at the end of the season especially if the number 3 or 4 team has a viable chance of gaining a bye week in the final weeks of the season.
This format still has over half the league (60%) interested in the last 3 weeks of play. This seems to correspond to the history of the league's playoffs where the top 5 teams have the best chance of advancing: In every single playoff in Brothers Keeper's history the number 5 team has advanced to play in the semifinal matchup against the winner of the number 8 v number 1 seeded team game. On the other half of the playoff format as it is currently, the number 4, 7, and number 6 seeded teams have never advanced to the semifinals. It has always been a number 2 v number 3 seeded matchup. That means that the same 50% of the league every season has not made the semifinals. Every year the number 4, 6, 7, 9, and 10 seeded teams has not made the semifinals. The 2, 3, and 5 teams have made it every year and they should being on the top half of league play by the regular season's end.
Who wouldn't like a chance at a bye week?
If it comes down to two teams tied for 5th place in their regular season record they both make it.
If multiple teams have the same record for 6th place the team with the best regular season point total advances, therefore making the quarterfinal more competitive with a good point scorer.
A consolation bracket could include the worst 4 teams thus prolonging their fun.
Cons: At most, one team could be below .500 on the regular season and make the playoffs.
4 Team Playoff Format
Pros:
The benefits here mimic the 6 team v 8 team playoff format except for one caveat. The playoffs for a 4 team playoff format is a week shorter. Only weeks 15 and 16 of the NFL season are employed to sift out a league champion. Another argument for a 4 team playoff is that it only includes the best teams. The cream of the crop get to duke it out. Worst case scenario the 4th seeded team wins the championship. Nice. Much easier to live with than a number 8 seeded champion with a record below .500.
The Talented Mr Roto, Matthew Berry advocates a 2 week 4 team playoff in his yearly "The Draft Day Manifesto 2010 edition: Your guide to winning your fantasy football league ... while having fun".
Fantasy football is for men. Men can handle it if they do not make the playoffs. Men are devalued if losers make the playoffs.
Cons:
If one wanted to consider a 4 team playoff instead of a 6 team playoff, you have eliminated the 5th place teams who have always made it to the seminfinals.
I have begun the discussion. Please add comments below in this Pro or Con format for which playoff format you would prefer.
Monday, June 28, 2010
Looking Ahead 2010: Sea Buzzards
This is the ninth post of a series of ten blogs covering each team from Brothers Keeper in detail. We began with the last place team and have moved up to the top of the league standings as it stood at the end of the 2009 fantasy football season (cf. Kabuki Strikes Back; CustodianPandemonium; Favre$Footlong; Ghost; Redmans CatPunters; Yankinfowlsandfeline; Simba's ButtKicker!; CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS). This post will present our 2d Place Silver Medalist/Trophy Winner, and 1st runner up, Sea Buzzards (M Peltonen).
Overview of M Peltonen's Brothers Keeper History
2007 Scrappy Chickens: 6-8-0 (6th Place) 1476.78 points; 12 transactions
2008 Squash-a-nomics 201: 6-7-0 (7th Place) 1183.33 points; 19 transactions
2009 Sea Buzzards: 5-8-0 (2d Place) 1396.22 points; 20 transactions
2009 End of Season Commentary
While M Peltonen only managed 6 wins during the regular seasons in 2007 and 2008 he gained the 7th seed playoff position in both years. Each year he played the #2 seed Yer X-MOM (P Smith) in the first round of the playoffs (Quarterfinals) and was eliminated. Then came 2009. Sea Buzzards managed to back into the playoffs on a 5 win regular season that ended with a 4 game losing streak (the last regular season game loss to Yer X-MOM was 134.18 to 140.57). That's one less win than the previous two campaigns. So instead of playing the #2 seed Yer X-MOM for a third year in a row in the first round, Sea Buzzards played Yankinfowlsandfeline (J Smith). Yankinfowlsandfeline not only managed to gain the top playoff seed, he dominated the competition in total points for the season (by 200+ points to the nearest competitor). This didn't look as promising a strategy for Sea Buzzards (M Peltonen) after all. It should be noted that in a 6 team playoff format, M Peltonen would never have made the playoffs in the Brothers Keeper history joining the likes of R Johnson.
But alas, Sea Buzzards won his first Quarterfinal playoff game. It was a huge upset. It was the second time in Brothers Keeper history that a #8 seed playoff team knocked off a top seeded playoff contender. In 2007, Brothers Keeper's inaugural season, the #8 seed Ghost (B Garner) beat the #1 seeded RedMans Warriors (D Pilcher) in the Quarterfinals. This has happened twice in the three year history. Sea Buzzards won over Yankinfowlsandfeline by a score of 122.46 to 104.45. It was a David and Goliath moment.
Sea Buzzards playoff success didn't end there. Sea Buzzards won the Semifinal matchup over Simba's Buttkicker! to advance to the Championship game with the help of F Gore RB and J Addai RB. However, there, he met his playoff nemesis in Yer X-MOM. It was a repeat of the prior two playoff meetings. Yer X-MOM is 3-0 versus M Peltonen's teams in the playoffs. Regardless, it was a fantastic run after an otherwise disappointing regular season for the Sea Buzzards.
This brings up an interesting issue about the current 8 team playoff format of Brothers Keeper. If one were to predict the future well enough to know who would perform well in the playoffs, all you really need to be concerned about for 13 weeks is whether or not you have a spot in the playoffs at all. For instance, if you had players who excelled in weeks 14, 15, and 16, then you might have a championship team while only winning less than .500 of your regular season games. Here's an interesting list of 2009 Strong Finishers by FFToolbox.com. Notice that two of the top 3 RBs are on the championship team. This is worth considering on a strategic level, but also demonstrates some inadequacies of an 8 team playoff format. This is not the point of this post, but how the Sea Buzzards performed in 2009's regular season versus the playoff weeks does surface this issue. However, even if F Gore RB had a strong finish for the fantasy football playoffs, and M Peltonen knew he would, how could someone know years in advance as in this keeper league? M Peltonen drafted F Gore in the first round of the 2008 Draft. The 2009 NFL regular season schedule wasn't even published until the Spring of 2009. So on one level, one could conceive that the keeper league neutralizes this, but I'd argue that it does not neutralize it enough.
M Peltonen has responded to this criticism noting that his 2009 team was plagued by injuries. So let's see if his argument hold weight: In late September M Hasselbeck QB suffered a rib injury late in the first half of the Seahawks' game vs. the 49ers. He then missed the next two games. Out of 13 potential games played through week 16 M Peltonen only started him 5 times. The other 11 QB fantasy starts went to the more productive T Romo anyhow.
At RB F Gore was also hurt during that same time frame. He missed 2 games completely after being injured after only one rushing attempt on September 27th 2009. J Addai only missed one game in January, meaning he was healthy the entire fantasy season. M Peltonen started him 14 times. D Brown didn't play for the first two games in November. Lynch, Morris, and Snelling were spot started when needed.
Were there any injuries at WR? None to the three significant pieces. Fitzgerald, Houshmandzadeh, and Jennings all played in every single regular season game. Austin was kept underused in order to be a developmental component in 2010. No significant injury issue happened at WR.
At TE G Olsen was underused for the more productive V Davis. Again, no injury concern here at TE.
So let us assess: During the three weeks of Gore's and Hasselbeck's absence for injury (weeks 3-5 just to be generous), M Peltonen actually had a 2-1-0 record. The game he lost was to Yer X-MOM. That loss was by 40.89 fantasy points. It is doubted the injuries had much effect if any on the record of M Peltonen's regular season record. Even if one game more was won, do we really think it would have helped? That would have brought the record from 5-8-0 to 6-7-0. That winning percentage is still below .500. Injury or not, something else was at play. His team was either hot or cold and when he was hot he did well. Obviously when his team went cold he didn't (1-4-0 record when scoring under 100 points). Sometimes he had a good week but still had an opponent outmatch him dramatically (e.g., week one's and week ten's losses to Redman's CatPunters). The evidence seems clear.
In other news, because Sea Buzzards (M Peltonen) made it to the Championship game, he automatically wins a medal/trophy. As the 1st runner up of the 2009 Brothers Keeper Fantasy Football League, the Sea Buzzards won the Silver Medal/Trophy. Congratulations!
Sea Buzzards's 2009 Draft
Sea Buzzards (M Peltonen) had the 5th overall draft pick position in the 2009 draft due to his poor 2008 playoff performance. His 2009 draft results are thus (noting that those who were kept from his 2008 final roster:
1. (5) Frank Gore RB (1st Rd Keeper Value)
2. (16) Tony Romo QB
3. (25) Larry Fitzgerald WR (Keeper)
4. (36) T.J. Houshmandzadeh WR
5. (45) Joseph Addai RB
6. (56) Marshawn Lynch RB
7. (65) Greg Jennings WR (Keeper)
8. (76) Tennessee DEF
9. (85) Greg Olsen TE
10. (96) Donald Brown RB
11. (105) Michael Vick QB
12. (116) Matt Hasselbeck QB
13. (125) Lance Moore WR
14. (136) Steve Breaston WR
15. (145) Adam Vinatieri K
Sea Buzzards's Final 2009 Roster
I have included the 2010 draft round and pick overall (overall pick is in parentheses) value of each player on Sea Buzzards's final roster followed by the name of the player, player's position, total # of fantasy starts for the season (a * indicates developmental eligibility for 2010's draft; some players were on more than one team but their total starts for all teams is listed); and total fantasy points scored by the player for the 16 fantasy week season (which is not subject to the # of starts):
1. (9) Frank Gore RB (1st Rd Keeper Value); 13 fantasy starts; 258.3 fp
2. (12) Tony Romo QB; 11 fantasy starts; 363.82 fp
2. (12) Larry Fitzgerald WR (Keeper); 15 fantasy starts; 229.6 fp
3. (29)
4. (32) T.J. Houshmandzadeh WR; 13 fantasy starts; 14.55 fp
5. (49) Joseph Addai RB; 14 fantasy starts; 233.48 fp
6. (52) Marshawn Lynch RB; 5 fantasy starts; 91.95 fp
6. (52) Greg Jennings WR (Keeper); 10 fantasy starts; 151.65 fp
7. (69)
8. (72)
9. (89)
10. (92)
11. (109)
12. (112) Rob Bironas K; 8 fantasy starts (2 with Redmans CatPunters + 6 with Sea Buzzards); 133 fp
12. (112) Vernon Davis TE; 12 fantasy starts (2 with CustodianPandemonium and 10 with Sea Buzzards); 204.25 fp
13. (129)
14. (132)
15. (149) Miles Austin WR; 3* fantasy starts; 218.04 fp (Undrafted)
15. (149) Johnny Knox WR; 2* fantasy starts (2 with Simba's Buttkicker!); 134.24 fp (Undrafted)
15. (149) Maurice Morris RB; 1* fantasy starts (1 with Ghost); 88.9 fp (Undrafted)
15. (149) Jason Snelling RB; 1* fantasy starts; 132.25 fp (Undrafted)
15. (149) Arizona DEF; 4 fantasy starts (1 with Simbas Buttkicker! + 2 with Yer X-MOM + 1 with Sea Buzzards); 139 fp (Undrafted)
15. (149) New England DEF; 7 fantasy starts (1 with CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS + 6 with Sea Buzzards); 132 fp (Undrafted)
Looking Ahead at 2010
Sea Buzzards's goal for 2010 should be to become a better regular season team with a more solid playoff seed thus creating less ambiguity as to whether or not his team is postseason worthy or not. It's not R Johnson bad, but it isn't good either. To achieve a better regular season record, the offseason/preseason goal for 2010 will require more comprehensive draft preparations. Because, as the personal finance sage, Dave Ramsey, says, "90% of making the correct decision is gathering information."
Considering the amazing free agent pickups in V Davis TE and M Austin WR during the 2009 season Sea Buzzards began to build for 2010 early. M Austin WR seems to be the clear favorite for developmental eligibility keeper slot now that he is the clear favorite #1 WR for the Dallas Cowboys. M Peltonen considered this very fact when he decided not to start M Austin in the championship game.
One notable stalwart of M Peltonen's prior teams in Brothers Keeper that was dropped in the process of 2009 has been the recently dissappointing, and oft injured, but very talented M Hasselbeck QB of his hometown favored Seattle Seahawks (hence the name, Sea Buzzards; see also the recent controvery with Hasselbeck's wife). It could seem a disappointing loss, unless you consider the T Romo QB is in the fold and was the predominant starter for Sea Buzzards throughout 2009. With M Austin, J Witten TE, and the newly drafted Dez Bryant WR as targets for Romo, Peltonen can be confident at QB if Romo is kept, albeit at a higher price than maybe he should go at, but then again Romo has also been highly touted for the 2010 fantasy season, higher than P Manning and T Brady even. With TJ Houshmandzadeh WR and D Branch WR recovering from injuries, T Romo was the easy choice to consider at QB for the future if he is kept.
Other than the obvious choice of M Austin as the developmental eligible keeper, there seems to be a solid 4 or 5 potential keepers for the 3 remaining keeper positions: F Gore RB (Rd 1); T Romo QB (Rd 2); J Addai (Rd 5); L Fitzgerald WR (Rd 2); and G Jennings WR (Rd 6). Of this group M Peltonen will have to figure out how to balance positional needs, value needs, and draft pick placement. Considering the positional needs, the question remains, should he keep 3 WRs in M Austin, L Fitzgerald, and G Jennings? He could start all three each week since Brothers Keeper has 2 WR and 1 WR/RB active roster spot. However that will mean he will need to choose between keeping a RB in F Gore or J Addia or a QB in T Romo. Plus, if Romo and Fitzgerald and Jennings are kept, that will mean one of his Rd 2 draft choices will automatically get bumped to the 1st Rd value and leave him without a draft pick until late in the 3rd Rd, when he could finally draft his first RB. What kind of RB depth will remain at that point in the draft? It's possible the 2d tier of RBs could all be gone by then since some may be kept as keepers. With the depth at WR M Peltonen may have to trade for talent he wants, or he might have to let the chips fall where they may and compensate later in the draft with a slew of third tier or rookie RBs.
Before leaving the positional question, it would not be surprising that L Fitzgerald WR might be the one who is not kept. He's talented but no longer has a talented QB following K Warner's retirement. Will M Leinart QB be able to perform? His first post-Warner practice did not go so well despite having all the confidence in the world. Confidence alone cannot win NFL games, even when you have the talented L Fitzgerald to throw the ball to. So with Leinart at the helm of the Arizona offense will L Fitzgerald be a worthy 1st or 2d Rd draft pick? This enters into the discussion as to draft value. Someone else might overpay to have Fitzgerald on their roster. The height of Fitzgerald's fantasy trade value may be past now too. A fact that M Peltonen may have missed on when the offers came from Yer X-MOM (P Smith) prior to the trade deadline.
The others (TJ Houshmandzadeh WR [Rd 4], J Addai RB [Rd 5], and M Lynch RB [Rd 6]) just don't seem as worthy of consideration, although I wouldn't be surprised if they were selected. J Addai, afterall, had a pretty good year. Probably better than G Jennings. But what will they do in 2010?
Again, like I said, the foundation has been laid for 2010 by M Peltonen thanks to some solid free agent pickups, including V Davis's breakout as a TE (Rd 12). It'll be tough to forecast the choice of keepers for 2010.
My Best Guess at Sea Buzzards's 2010 Keepers
My best guess, F Gore RB (Rd 1), L Fitzgerald WR (Rd 2/3), T Romo QB (Rd 2/3), and developmental eligible M Austin WR (Rd 15).
Brothers Keeper Third Party Consultant's Best Guess at Sea Buzzards's 2010 Keepers
"ok i would gore, fitz, and jennings and i would keep austin, that your 3 starting wr's and with there being so many good qbs now u can get by with having someone like matt ryan or even try and redraft romo in the 3nd or 4th rd and take a rb with either one of those picks u gotta have a nice haul of rb's in the draft i would target guys like donald brown joe addai, hardesty, harrison, and ben tate in the later rds and target a mid level TE"
Overview of M Peltonen's Brothers Keeper History
2007 Scrappy Chickens: 6-8-0 (6th Place) 1476.78 points; 12 transactions
2008 Squash-a-nomics 201: 6-7-0 (7th Place) 1183.33 points; 19 transactions
2009 Sea Buzzards: 5-8-0 (2d Place) 1396.22 points; 20 transactions
2009 End of Season Commentary
While M Peltonen only managed 6 wins during the regular seasons in 2007 and 2008 he gained the 7th seed playoff position in both years. Each year he played the #2 seed Yer X-MOM (P Smith) in the first round of the playoffs (Quarterfinals) and was eliminated. Then came 2009. Sea Buzzards managed to back into the playoffs on a 5 win regular season that ended with a 4 game losing streak (the last regular season game loss to Yer X-MOM was 134.18 to 140.57). That's one less win than the previous two campaigns. So instead of playing the #2 seed Yer X-MOM for a third year in a row in the first round, Sea Buzzards played Yankinfowlsandfeline (J Smith). Yankinfowlsandfeline not only managed to gain the top playoff seed, he dominated the competition in total points for the season (by 200+ points to the nearest competitor). This didn't look as promising a strategy for Sea Buzzards (M Peltonen) after all. It should be noted that in a 6 team playoff format, M Peltonen would never have made the playoffs in the Brothers Keeper history joining the likes of R Johnson.
But alas, Sea Buzzards won his first Quarterfinal playoff game. It was a huge upset. It was the second time in Brothers Keeper history that a #8 seed playoff team knocked off a top seeded playoff contender. In 2007, Brothers Keeper's inaugural season, the #8 seed Ghost (B Garner) beat the #1 seeded RedMans Warriors (D Pilcher) in the Quarterfinals. This has happened twice in the three year history. Sea Buzzards won over Yankinfowlsandfeline by a score of 122.46 to 104.45. It was a David and Goliath moment.
This brings up an interesting issue about the current 8 team playoff format of Brothers Keeper. If one were to predict the future well enough to know who would perform well in the playoffs, all you really need to be concerned about for 13 weeks is whether or not you have a spot in the playoffs at all. For instance, if you had players who excelled in weeks 14, 15, and 16, then you might have a championship team while only winning less than .500 of your regular season games. Here's an interesting list of 2009 Strong Finishers by FFToolbox.com. Notice that two of the top 3 RBs are on the championship team. This is worth considering on a strategic level, but also demonstrates some inadequacies of an 8 team playoff format. This is not the point of this post, but how the Sea Buzzards performed in 2009's regular season versus the playoff weeks does surface this issue. However, even if F Gore RB had a strong finish for the fantasy football playoffs, and M Peltonen knew he would, how could someone know years in advance as in this keeper league? M Peltonen drafted F Gore in the first round of the 2008 Draft. The 2009 NFL regular season schedule wasn't even published until the Spring of 2009. So on one level, one could conceive that the keeper league neutralizes this, but I'd argue that it does not neutralize it enough.
M Peltonen has responded to this criticism noting that his 2009 team was plagued by injuries. So let's see if his argument hold weight: In late September M Hasselbeck QB suffered a rib injury late in the first half of the Seahawks' game vs. the 49ers. He then missed the next two games. Out of 13 potential games played through week 16 M Peltonen only started him 5 times. The other 11 QB fantasy starts went to the more productive T Romo anyhow.
At RB F Gore was also hurt during that same time frame. He missed 2 games completely after being injured after only one rushing attempt on September 27th 2009. J Addai only missed one game in January, meaning he was healthy the entire fantasy season. M Peltonen started him 14 times. D Brown didn't play for the first two games in November. Lynch, Morris, and Snelling were spot started when needed.
Were there any injuries at WR? None to the three significant pieces. Fitzgerald, Houshmandzadeh, and Jennings all played in every single regular season game. Austin was kept underused in order to be a developmental component in 2010. No significant injury issue happened at WR.
At TE G Olsen was underused for the more productive V Davis. Again, no injury concern here at TE.
So let us assess: During the three weeks of Gore's and Hasselbeck's absence for injury (weeks 3-5 just to be generous), M Peltonen actually had a 2-1-0 record. The game he lost was to Yer X-MOM. That loss was by 40.89 fantasy points. It is doubted the injuries had much effect if any on the record of M Peltonen's regular season record. Even if one game more was won, do we really think it would have helped? That would have brought the record from 5-8-0 to 6-7-0. That winning percentage is still below .500. Injury or not, something else was at play. His team was either hot or cold and when he was hot he did well. Obviously when his team went cold he didn't (1-4-0 record when scoring under 100 points). Sometimes he had a good week but still had an opponent outmatch him dramatically (e.g., week one's and week ten's losses to Redman's CatPunters). The evidence seems clear.
In other news, because Sea Buzzards (M Peltonen) made it to the Championship game, he automatically wins a medal/trophy. As the 1st runner up of the 2009 Brothers Keeper Fantasy Football League, the Sea Buzzards won the Silver Medal/Trophy. Congratulations!
Sea Buzzards (M Peltonen) had the 5th overall draft pick position in the 2009 draft due to his poor 2008 playoff performance. His 2009 draft results are thus (noting that those who were kept from his 2008 final roster:
1. (5) Frank Gore RB (1st Rd Keeper Value)
2. (16) Tony Romo QB
3. (25) Larry Fitzgerald WR (Keeper)
4. (36) T.J. Houshmandzadeh WR
5. (45) Joseph Addai RB
6. (56) Marshawn Lynch RB
7. (65) Greg Jennings WR (Keeper)
8. (76) Tennessee DEF
9. (85) Greg Olsen TE
10. (96) Donald Brown RB
11. (105) Michael Vick QB
12. (116) Matt Hasselbeck QB
13. (125) Lance Moore WR
14. (136) Steve Breaston WR
15. (145) Adam Vinatieri K
Sea Buzzards's Final 2009 Roster
I have included the 2010 draft round and pick overall (overall pick is in parentheses) value of each player on Sea Buzzards's final roster followed by the name of the player, player's position, total # of fantasy starts for the season (a * indicates developmental eligibility for 2010's draft; some players were on more than one team but their total starts for all teams is listed); and total fantasy points scored by the player for the 16 fantasy week season (which is not subject to the # of starts):
1. (9) Frank Gore RB (1st Rd Keeper Value); 13 fantasy starts; 258.3 fp
2. (12) Tony Romo QB; 11 fantasy starts; 363.82 fp
2. (12) Larry Fitzgerald WR (Keeper); 15 fantasy starts; 229.6 fp
3. (29)
4. (32) T.J. Houshmandzadeh WR; 13 fantasy starts; 14.55 fp
5. (49) Joseph Addai RB; 14 fantasy starts; 233.48 fp
6. (52) Marshawn Lynch RB; 5 fantasy starts; 91.95 fp
6. (52) Greg Jennings WR (Keeper); 10 fantasy starts; 151.65 fp
7. (69)
8. (72)
9. (89)
10. (92)
11. (109)
12. (112) Rob Bironas K; 8 fantasy starts (2 with Redmans CatPunters + 6 with Sea Buzzards); 133 fp
12. (112) Vernon Davis TE; 12 fantasy starts (2 with CustodianPandemonium and 10 with Sea Buzzards); 204.25 fp
13. (129)
14. (132)
15. (149) Miles Austin WR; 3* fantasy starts; 218.04 fp (Undrafted)
15. (149) Johnny Knox WR; 2* fantasy starts (2 with Simba's Buttkicker!); 134.24 fp (Undrafted)
15. (149) Maurice Morris RB; 1* fantasy starts (1 with Ghost); 88.9 fp (Undrafted)
15. (149) Jason Snelling RB; 1* fantasy starts; 132.25 fp (Undrafted)
15. (149) Arizona DEF; 4 fantasy starts (1 with Simbas Buttkicker! + 2 with Yer X-MOM + 1 with Sea Buzzards); 139 fp (Undrafted)
15. (149) New England DEF; 7 fantasy starts (1 with CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS + 6 with Sea Buzzards); 132 fp (Undrafted)
Looking Ahead at 2010
Sea Buzzards's goal for 2010 should be to become a better regular season team with a more solid playoff seed thus creating less ambiguity as to whether or not his team is postseason worthy or not. It's not R Johnson bad, but it isn't good either. To achieve a better regular season record, the offseason/preseason goal for 2010 will require more comprehensive draft preparations. Because, as the personal finance sage, Dave Ramsey, says, "90% of making the correct decision is gathering information."
Considering the amazing free agent pickups in V Davis TE and M Austin WR during the 2009 season Sea Buzzards began to build for 2010 early. M Austin WR seems to be the clear favorite for developmental eligibility keeper slot now that he is the clear favorite #1 WR for the Dallas Cowboys. M Peltonen considered this very fact when he decided not to start M Austin in the championship game.
Other than the obvious choice of M Austin as the developmental eligible keeper, there seems to be a solid 4 or 5 potential keepers for the 3 remaining keeper positions: F Gore RB (Rd 1); T Romo QB (Rd 2); J Addai (Rd 5); L Fitzgerald WR (Rd 2); and G Jennings WR (Rd 6). Of this group M Peltonen will have to figure out how to balance positional needs, value needs, and draft pick placement. Considering the positional needs, the question remains, should he keep 3 WRs in M Austin, L Fitzgerald, and G Jennings? He could start all three each week since Brothers Keeper has 2 WR and 1 WR/RB active roster spot. However that will mean he will need to choose between keeping a RB in F Gore or J Addia or a QB in T Romo. Plus, if Romo and Fitzgerald and Jennings are kept, that will mean one of his Rd 2 draft choices will automatically get bumped to the 1st Rd value and leave him without a draft pick until late in the 3rd Rd, when he could finally draft his first RB. What kind of RB depth will remain at that point in the draft? It's possible the 2d tier of RBs could all be gone by then since some may be kept as keepers. With the depth at WR M Peltonen may have to trade for talent he wants, or he might have to let the chips fall where they may and compensate later in the draft with a slew of third tier or rookie RBs.
The others (TJ Houshmandzadeh WR [Rd 4], J Addai RB [Rd 5], and M Lynch RB [Rd 6]) just don't seem as worthy of consideration, although I wouldn't be surprised if they were selected. J Addai, afterall, had a pretty good year. Probably better than G Jennings. But what will they do in 2010?
Again, like I said, the foundation has been laid for 2010 by M Peltonen thanks to some solid free agent pickups, including V Davis's breakout as a TE (Rd 12). It'll be tough to forecast the choice of keepers for 2010.
My Best Guess at Sea Buzzards's 2010 Keepers
My best guess, F Gore RB (Rd 1), L Fitzgerald WR (Rd 2/3), T Romo QB (Rd 2/3), and developmental eligible M Austin WR (Rd 15).
Brothers Keeper Third Party Consultant's Best Guess at Sea Buzzards's 2010 Keepers
"ok i would gore, fitz, and jennings and i would keep austin, that your 3 starting wr's and with there being so many good qbs now u can get by with having someone like matt ryan or even try and redraft romo in the 3nd or 4th rd and take a rb with either one of those picks u gotta have a nice haul of rb's in the draft i would target guys like donald brown joe addai, hardesty, harrison, and ben tate in the later rds and target a mid level TE"
Thursday, June 24, 2010
NFL Training Camps
Have you been sweating the summer away? Have no fear. Some men will sweat more than you. Some will push their bodies to extremes. Barely grown up millionaires make themselves puke even after their organized team activities to be the best. The football season is getting closer and closer. To see how close your favored NFL team or fantasy players are to crunch time check out the 2010 NFL Training Camp start dates for each NFL team at FFToolbox.com. See also ESPN's page as well.
Hopefully you'll also be accessing your favored Rapid Reports on a daily basis too.
Hopefully you'll also be accessing your favored Rapid Reports on a daily basis too.
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