Saturday, January 23, 2010

Looking Ahead 2010: Favre$Footlong

This is the third post of a series of blogs covering each team from Brothers Keeper in detail. We will begin with the last place team and move to the top of the league standings as it stood at the end of the 2009 fantasy football season (cf. Kabuki Strikes Back; CustodianPandemonium). Third up, Favre$Footlong (D Kessler)

Overview of D Kessler's Brothers Keeper History
2007 Junior Asparagus: 4-10-0 (10th Place) 1211.51 points; 8 transactions
2008 PAIN: 9-4-0 (1st Place) 1420.68 points; 14 transactions
2009 Favre$Footlong: 8-5-0 (8th Place) 1247.90 points; 25 transactions

2009 End of Season Commentary
"From worst to first!" was D Kessler's motto in 2008. Just an amazing turnaround. But how did that happen? At first look you would probably scratch your head. From 2007's roster. D Kessler chose to keep 2 TEs! Sure J Witten TE and T Gonzalez TE are good, definitely Hall of Fame good, but keeping 2 TEs when you can only start 1 each week? Not sure what the philosophy was because when he traded J Witten to Yer X-MOM (P Smith) for a 4th round pick in the 2008 draft, it made sense, that is, until he drafted A Gates TE with that draft pick! What PAIN did have was 3 breakout players: P Thomas RB, M Cassel QB, and B Marshall WR along with the resurgence of T Jones RB. D Bowe WR and M Barber RB were also notable contributors getting PAIN a #3 seed in the 2008 playoffs. His semifinal win upset over Yer X-MOM (P Smith) and championship success had everything to do with great matchups for his fantasy players. What a turnaround! What a run!

As with Yank (J Smith), a repeat of success is hard to come by because of the late draft pick (10th). But D Kessler entered the 2009 Brothers Keeper BBQ Draft with a new team name and his perennial favored TE T Gonzalez and 2 of his 2008 breakout players, B Marshall WR and M Cassel QB. While Cassel was a shell of his previous year (being on a new team), D Kessler did about as good as he did in 2008's regular season. He earned a #4 seed in the 2009 playoffs.

Unfortunately Favre$Footlong was cut short by Simba's ButtKicker! (R Johnson) in the quarterfinals. His team lost by a 1.12 point defecit. He could have started T Owens WR instead of K Britt WR and won. An active WR, RB, or QB could have had 15 more yards of offensive stats and Fave$Footlong would have won. He could have not dropped R Mendenhall RB or V Davis TE earlier in the season and utilized them. But instead, he gave hope to R Johnson's Simba's ButtKicker! The league suffered a number of boastings as a result. D Kessler usually sings in the GMBC Choir where R Johnson plays drums. Truth be known, I'm sure D Kessler is still friendly toward R Johnson. He's the humble one.
Along the way, 2009 was an interesting year foor Favre$Footlong in the personnel department. Basically two 30 year old RBs that were leaned upon early in the year were injured and a 35 year old WR had a merry-go-round of QBs throwing his way. Kessler's 2d round draft pick C Portis RB got injured. So did his 6th round draft pick J Lewis RB. The only think the Buffalo Bills had going for them in 2009 was the best special teams in the NFL. T Owens WR did not produce and I'm sure the popcorn sales sank in Orchard Park, NY. Along with the popcorn went D Kessler's Favre$Footlong.... unless he made up for dropping the talented V Davis TE and R Mendenhall RB. He did. S Rice WR and  J Stewart RB (finally healthy enough to replace the injured D Williams RB) were plucked from free agency and revived Favre$Footlong enough to be competitive in the first round of the playoffs. One can only wonder where his team would have ended up if the talented players were not dropped. V Shianco TE and P Garcon WR are notable free agent pick ups with developmental eligibility for next year.

Favre$Footlong's 2009 Draft
Favre$Footlong (D Kessler) had the 10th overall draft pick position in the 2009 draft thanks to his strong playoff performance gaining him the Championship trophy. His 2009 draft results are thus (noting that those who were kept from his 2008 final roster:

1. (10) Marion Barber RB
2. (11) Clinton Portis RB
3. (30) Terrell Owens WR
4. (31) Donovan McNabb QB
5. (50) Tony Gonzalez TE (Keeper)
6. (51) Jamal Lewis RB
7. (70) Lee Evans WR
8. (71) Brandon Marshall WR (Keeper)
9. (90) Braylon Edwards WR
10. (91) Minnesota DEF
11. (110) Rashard Mendenhall RB
12. (111) Vernon Davis TE
13. (130) Donnie Avery WR
14. (131) Ryan Longwell K
15. (150) Matt Cassel QB (Keeper)

Favre$Footlong's Final 2009 Roster
I have included the 2010 draft round and pick overall (overall pick is in parentheses) value of each player on Favre$Footlong's final roster followed by the name of the player, player's position, total # of fantasy starts for the season (a * indicates developmental eligibility for 2010's draft; some players were on more than one team but their total starts for all teams is listed); and total fantasy points scored by the player for the 16 fantasy week season (which is not subject to the # of starts):

1. (6) Marion Barber RB (1st Rd Keeper Value); 14 fantasy starts; 168.25 fp
2. (15) 
3. (26) Terrell Owens WR; 4 fantasy starts; 137.85 fp
4. (35) Donovan McNabb QB; 13 fantasy starts; 295.17 fp
4. (35) Tony Gonzalez TE (Keeper); 15 fantasy starts; 162.35 fp
5. (46)
6. (55) J Stewart RB; 8 fantasy starts (7 with Favre$Footlong + 1 with CustodianPandemonium); 200.82 fp
7. (66) Brandon Marshall WR (Keeper); 14 fantasy starts; 220.90 fp
8. (75)
9. (86)
10. (95) Minnesota DEF; 15 fantasy starts; 132.00 fp
11. (106)
12. (115) 
13. (126) 
14. (135) Ryan Longwell K; 15 fantasy starts; 141.00 fp
15. (146) S Rice WR; 11 fantasy starts; 194.60 fp (Undrafted)
15. (146) R Cartwright RB; *3 fantasy starts; 96.84 fp (Undrafted)
15. (146) T Ginn Jr. WR; *1 fantasy starts; 127.64 fp (Undrafted)
15. (146) K Britt WR; *3 fantasy starts; 110.47 fp (Undrafted)
15. (146) J Jones WR; *3 fantasy starts; 128.52 fp (Undrafted)
15. (146) V Shiancoe TE; *0 fantasy starts; 150.30 fp (Undrafted)
15. (146) P Garcon WR; *0 fantasy starts; 110.25 fp (Undrafted)

Looking Ahead at 2010
Favre$Footlong is poised to stay competitive with the roster he finished with in 2009. If T Gonzalez TE does not retire Kessler may very likely keep his tradition alive of retaining the future Hall of Famer. He's taken a top TE in the 4th round before (see 2008's drafting of A Gates TE). Another 4th round payment for Kessler seems plausible. However, V Shiancoe TE is only worth a 15th round draft pick and has been producing top TE fantasy points the past year and a half. Plus he has developmental status eligibility. Will he keep 2 TEs again?

Kessler also has a couple of dynamic WRs available to him to keep. B Marshall (rd 7), S Rice (rd 15), and possibly P Garcon (rd 15). We have no idea what will happen to Marshall in the offseason. He cleaned out his locker completely at the end of the season in Denver and it is no surprise Denver is probably shopping him as trade bait. It is no longer beneficial for both sides for Marshall to remain in Denver. Will Marshall get a good QB to throw to him? There is a lot of uncertainty about Marshall's ability to produce in fantasy football for 2010. We'll need to wait until closer to the 2010 season before knowing a bit better. But S Rice WR is a solid keeper. If Kessler knows anything about fantasy football he'll keep S Rice. Rice will surely produce if Favre is back in Minnesota. There's no way Favre retires yet. He's having too much fun. T Owens, T Ginn Jr., K Britt, and J Jones are not worth considering seriously as keepers.

In the RB department, M Barber, (1st rd), J Stewart (6th rd; to have foot surgery; 2 surgeries actually), and R Cartwright (15th rd) places Kessler into a tough position. He has no solid RB depth. Barber has two talented RBs ready to take his job whenever it is to happen. J Stewart, while very talented, shares carries with D Williams but has frequently been injured. Hopefully these surgeries allow him to recover in time for 2010. Cartwright only became the starter once C Portis was injured. We also have no idea what the Redskins will do with Shanahan as their head coach. He used quite the merry-go-round of RBs the last few years he was head coach in Denver. My guess is that Kessler may want to keep one of these but again he will need to wait until the preseason clarifies the choice. He may want to forget keeping a RB altogether and trade a TE or WR or both for a solid RB later on during the fantasy draft. It is hard to say. Not keeping Barber leaves him with a lot of early round draft picks (1st, 2d, and 3rd will be free).

D McNabb QB is also an interesting consideration. He could easily be traded to another team in the NFL needing a QB. You also never know which D McNabb will appear on game day. Will it be the fantasy stud or dud? He, too, is not a clear choice for 2010.

Regardless, Kessler will pick a good fantasy football team name in 2010.

My Best Guess at Favre$Footlong's 2010 Keepers
T Gonzalez TE (4th rd), V Shiancoe TE (15th rd developmental), S Rice WR (15th rd), and B Marshall WR (7th rd) will be the players retained. If not Marshall then M Barber RB (1st rd) or J Stewart RB (6th rd) will be kept, but I lean toward Stewart more on account of the early draft picks available to Kessler if Barber is not kept. Kessler may even elect to only keep 3 players instead of 4.

Brothers Keeper Third Party Consultant's Best Guess at Favre$Footlong's 2010 Keepers 
"jstew, marshall, rice, and i guess garcon or shiancoe if farve comes back. he had a great draft but all the good players that have value now are gone [V Davis TE; R Mendenhall RB; even had J Charles RB on his roster at one point]."

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