Monday, January 31, 2011

Super Bowl XLV: Tips for Travelers to North Texas (Dallas-Fort Worth [DFW])

For those of you lucky enough to be able to afford seats or win tickets to the (highest attendedSuper Bowl XLV game on February 6, 2011 and are from out of town, this blog is for you.

There are a million hotels in the DFW area. There are a million restaurants in the DFW area. There are also a million churches and shopping centers. I spent some time in Dubuque, IA and we had a saying there: "There is a bar and a Catholic Church on every corner." Well, in Dallas, "we have a shopping center and church on every corner."

As a non-native of Texas who has resided on the northern side of Dallas for the past 8.5 years, I have some good ideas for you to consider if you will be spending any time on the northern side of Dallas. DFW is a good size, and there are locals who know what they are talking about in each area. Take their word for it. North Texans are pretty welcoming people. They pride themselves with Southern hospitality. While I won't know much about all of the DFW area I do know a bit concerning the northern half of Dallas.

I was a graduate student at Dallas Theological Seminary, so I am not a man with money. I am not going to have all the rich people's favorites, because, frankly, I just don't run around with that kind of money. So consider your source for the recommendations below. Most will not be swanky selections. I love food and I will miss the favorite spots I have here if/when I move away. So if you are looking to save a buck but want a good time, I think I'll be of service to you. I have no financial connection to any of the recommendations other than these are the places I have spent my time and money at. I have no loyalties to any one particular item whatsoever. Check out their menus and prices online first before heading to them if you'd like.

Tip #1: North Texans speed on the highway so step on it and stay with the flow. Not many cops patrol the highways either, and if they do, they are on motorcycles so look out. I imagine there will be a campaign to get North Texans to slow down before hand. I will also say that when I moved here there were less people on the roads than there are now. The highways are much more crowded even after all of the improvements. The populace just grew way faster than the infrastructure upgrades which were upgraded. So if you are going to be on the highways the week of the Super Bowl, expect some delays because there are too many people but don't be the type to slow things down when things are going because North Texans speed on the highways normally. The HOV lane is dangerous so I do not recommend using the HOV since you may be forced to miss your exits too.

If you are renting a car, be sure to not use the toll roads in North Texas because the rental car companies will hit your pocketbook/wallet hard for doing so. My parents got hit with a high extra charge of nearly $200 for having done so. So look out!

Most streets are either 2 or 3 lanes wide. This is nice. It makes you want to go fast like on the highway. However watch for the speed limit because they will be much slower than you might first expect. 35 MPH speed traps exist for a reason. Don't make your stay in Texas more costly than it needs to be.

NOTICE: If the weather in North Texas deteriorates watch out! Most of the highways have lots of sections in the air and those sections freeze first and North Texans generally don't know this information. Icy conditions, not snowy conditions, exist in the wintry mixes of DFW. Combine this with the fact that North Texans can't drive slow or don't know how to drive in slick road conditions in their big ol' vehicles and you will have a lot of traffic difficulties in the region. So plan for extra travel times on those days.

Tip #2: Downtown Dallas is not the kind of downtown you park your car and walk around a ton to see all the wonderful shops. You can do that in Chicago and Brooklyn etc. but not in downtown Dallas. People work down there. On the weekends downtown Dallas is pretty much empty of pedestrians and such. Texas has a lot of land so they spread things out here. There are things close to downtown that I'll point to but you won't park your car somewhere and expect to walk there; just drive to the spot you're going to and find a parking spot.

Tip #3: Food.
A lot of ink can and will be spilled here.
First things first. Texas only has one natural lake. North Texas doesn't own that lake. There isn't water here to fill your seafood desires so take my advice and just stay away from the seafood mostly. McCormick & Schmick's is the only exception.

The Original Pancake House soooo good! And the coffee is excellent.
Beef and BBQ
Baker's Ribs
Bob's Steak & Chop House Expensive but very good.

Alfredo's Buy pizza by the slice. Great Calzones.
Adelmo's Ristorante

Middle Eastern
Ali Baba

Campisi's is it's own distinct taste. Multiple locations although I recommend the one on Mockingbird Ln since it was the original one and is where Jack Ruby ate one his final meals before killing Lee Harvey Oswald.
Angelo & Vito's Buy your pizza by the slice.
Zini's Pizzeria
Piggie Pies

Sothern Style
Southern Recipes Cafe It is in the same parking lot as Richardson Bike Mart, the place Lance Armstrong bought his first bike, so I'm told... or they are his first sponsor. Check their history. Get the Blackened Pork Chops with the White Wine sauce... so good. Their Chicken Fried Chicken is quite good too.
The Sting Bean

Wild About Harry's
Best Tirami su I've ever had is at Isabella's

JG's My favorite. They serve more of a boardwalk style french fry. So if you'd like it crispy ask for it to be extra crispy.
Jakes is all right.
Snuffer's is nice. Try the cheddar fries.
Keller's is pretty old and you'll be able to drive up and sit in your car and order an alcoholic beverage. They serve tater tots instead of fires if I remember right.

Tip #4: Sites to See
Dealey Plaza
Okay, when you think of Dallas, if you are old enough, you are reminded of the JFK assassination at Dealey Plaza. The city likes to promote the Sixth Floor Museum. There is a lot of people on the street level too. On the street you will see 2 X's or a double X that marks the spots. You'll see the Grassy Knoll and the fence. I have no idea what to say here other than if you are driving on that 3 Lane street go slow and don't hit anyone. If you want to take pics, go for it, but be mindful that if you are standing in the middle of the street by the X's you'll have traffic coming your way at times. Do some research on the maps and the Internet before you go down there to Dealey Plazza. You can spend 30 minutes there on the street being educated by people hoping to inform you (and some are worth listening to as they were involved in Government hearings on the matter etc., although the police and such have been harassing them illegally lately with tickets and fines). Others are only selling stuff, and that is fine too. I will say that if you decide to pay money to go into the museum, there is a lot of material there and you will need to carve out a good chunk of time to go up there and learn all you want. Isn't that the normal Museum experience? Too much to learn and not enough time.

I would have recommended going to the Mesquite Championship Rodeo at the Resistol Arena but their season hasn't begun. I have no idea if there will be any other Rodeos going on in, or around North Texas. Search for it. You may be surprised. Small town Rodeos are good from what I've heard. The Fort Worth Stock Show & Rodeo is huge and is going on now too.

The Fort Worth Zoo is better than the Dallas Zoo according to everyone I've heard talk about it. I haven't been to either one. I will say that if you hit the exhibit at the Dallas Zoo that includes the spiders, look for the Texas Brown Tarantula. A few years ago my friend once took his daughters there and saw they had none in their exhibit where there had been some previously and offered to catch some out of his yard and donate them to the Zoo. If they are still there I do not know. But they came from his yard in Cedar Hill, TX (just south of Dallas). They are here and they eat bugs in the area. They cannot hurt a human. So do not fret. There are big bugs and small reptiles all across the southern portion of the USA but if it is cold enough you shouldn't see many.

If you are interested in seeing real dinosaur tracks in the wild go to Dinosaur Valley State Park in Glen Rose, TX. It is south of DFW and is a good day trip if you have a whole day. There is a good mom and pop place to eat at in down town Glen Rose too but I forgot the name of it. There is a Fossil Rim Wild Life Center not far from the main street in Glen Rose on the opposite of the State Park entrance. It is expensive to go there but if you have kiddos who want to see it and they aren't clamoring to get out of the car because of boredom (the drive is a stay in your car experience I believe) then give it a try. A day in Glen Rose is quiet compared to the time in DFW's traffic. If you want the best desserts in Texas go another 30-45 minute drive from Glen Rose to The Koffee Kup Hico, TX. AMAZING! You will not regret it. It is so deceiving too. They serve there food and deductibles on cafeteria looking plates and bowls but it is awesome. Bread Pudding and Pies galore! It is busy at all hours of the day.

Tip #5: Exercise
If you need to walk off a few pounds and it is nice enough weather (which could very well happen here in North Texas as we always seem to get an 80 degree day or two in Winter) get out to White Rock Lake. Park anywhere around the lake and just walk or bike what you feel like and return back to your car. Shouldn't cost you a thing (other than calories). Most locals will head there regularly on their exercise routine. It is on the northeastern side from downtown Dallas. If you bring a mountain bike check out Dallas Off Road Biking Associations website for places to bike and for updated Trail Conditions. My favorite is Erwin Park in McKinney, TX.

If you have gym memberships in some of the bigger band name gyms, you will surely be able to find them here in Dallas too. If you are near downtown Dallas and do not have a gym membership, but are craving to go to one, I would recommend the Tom Landry Fitness Center at Baylor Medical Center. I have no idea what it would cost to go there once so call them ahead of time and find out. I had the pleasure to have been able to utilize their facilities as a student. It is not a meet/meat market.

Tip #6: Arts
I'm not an art junkie. I'm more interested in sports. But if you want a few ideas on some of the arts in the city I'll give you some ideas of places I have gone and enjoyed. Dallas has an Art scene.

Before mentioning any museum or the like, look at the free art. I love to look at the buildings all the time. I even understand what some of the designers must have been thinking. For instance there are building on 75 ("Central") that look like gold bricks/bars standing on the ground. On your way to work downtown you see the gold and you it must inspire some to work hard that day. On the way home, seeing the gold might make some depressed... is that all I am working for? Look at the buildings. Be safe, if you are trying to drive and look at the same time. I have seen very cool special effects on some buildings too. For instance, the Tower at City Place on the corner of Haskell and 75 has at times light up only the top corners of the buildings at night. If none of their other lights are on, the top corners look like a 3D skull. So cool. One side of the skull is lit up and the other side is shadowed (but is the dark black night sky). Very neat effect. Not many notice it. Some buildings look like flowing water fountains. Others have had other optical illusions. Once I was driving south down 75 and on my right there was the setting sun beaming bright. Well, whoever designed a set of buildings nearby did so that at a particular point in the year the sun set appears to be seen through the building! In reality it is sunset light reflected off of an opposite building and reflected onto the building you "see" the setting sun through. Very very cool.

All right, the other artsy stuff is as follows: The Dallas Museum of Art has different exhibits at different times. So check out their site for what's going on there now. There is also a Modern Art Museum of Fort Worth that I have not yet been to. There is also the Dallas Symphony Orchestra. It looks like there are concerts during the Super Bowl week. So take a look and see if you need some "culture" before or after the Big Game. I hear there are many other places to check for

Tip #7: Events
Cirque du Soliel OVO is in town.
NHL Dallas Stars
NBA Dallas Mavericks
Horse Racing at Lone Star Park?
Concerts and other events Nokia Theatre
Angelika and the Magnolia movie theatres feature more artistic films not necessarily found in other theatres.
Billy Bob's Texas
NFL Experience
Legends of the Game Museum at the Ballpark in Arlington, Home of the reigning AL Champions Texas Rangers.

Tip #8: Go To Church
Because the Superbowl is always on a Sunday evening you will have time Sunday morning to go to church before the big game. So do so. Dallas is home to a number of mega churches and famous named preachers. Dr. Tony Evans preaches in Oak Cliff. Dr. Charles Swindoll preaches in Frisco. If you hear a guy on the radio that you like, see if he is in the DFW area over the Superbowl week. I just found out yesterday Tim Keller preached at a church nearby on Tuesday. There are Seminary professors who also preach in the area. There is Dallas Theological Seminary and Southwestern Baptist Theological Seminary over in Fort Worth. Take a look at their websites and see if you know a professor you have read their books or articles before and figure out what church they go to and I'm sure they'd be glad to meet you in person.

Tip #9: Parking for the Superbowl
All right, this is crazier than anything I've ever seen: $900 parking. Yes it will be packed. If you aren't willing to even pay for the parking at $55 then you ought to find a DFW person and pay them to drive you to the game and drive you out of there when it is over. They don't even have to get you terribly close as you can walk a long while there to the football stadium. Just so long as you have your good walking shoes of course, but really, I would encourage you to buck the system. Look for some sort of longer distance parking and a bus. Whatever you do shop for the best deal. Even if you need to consult a taxi service... and if you're real good at selling it, talk to a nice local and see if you can pay them to take you as close as possible to and from the game! I'm willing to do so at the right price!

Tip #10: Don't Waste Your Time
Whatever you do, don't spend your time doing things here in DFW that you could do elsewhere back home. Forget the movie theatres (for the most part). You've traveled this far to see a football game, so enjoy being away from the norm. You must try some Texas BBQ (brisket and ribs). Treat the locals nicely because they pride themselves in being hospitable and really do like to be hospitable. Hope you enjoy your trip to the  Dallas-Fort Worth area.

Thursday, January 20, 2011

Because It Was So Awesome: The Marshawn Lynch Run

"The Marshawn Lynch Run" was so fantastic that I am still thinking about it over two weeks later. So let's archive it for our collective fantasy football memory.

1) Here's the video footage of the play on
2) Let us not forget that the earth shook: That's right, there was a minor earthquake.
3) Someone redid the play in Tecmo Bowl mode. Crazy.
4) Finally, the reason the play worked so well has been broken down into detail by the Seattle Times reporter Danny O'Neil. It was teamwork. Just look how far down field most of the Seattle players had made it by the end of the play. They had a continuous team effort. That's what it takes to win a championship in fantasy football: Continuous Team Effort.

Tuesday, January 18, 2011

Professional Football Writers of America NFL Post-Season Awards

2010 NFL MVP
For those of you interested in which fantasy players received yearly ALL NFL and ALL Rookie Team awards by the Professional Football Writers of America you can now see the results at ESPN.

Wednesday, January 12, 2011

A 2011 Brothers Keeper Draft Order Discussion and Proposal

For those looking for an idea on how to come up with an unbiased draft order from a previous fantasy football season's results this post is for you. This assumes you have most if not all of your league participants returning to play year after year in a keeper or dynasty league or the like. The following discussion is based on the desire for parity within the league. This requires a working knowledge of Building a Fantasy Football Draft Value Chart and the results of Do Bookends Rule? A Study on the Value of Draft Slot/Position in a Snake Draft. From those previous posts you should be able to see that the draft order's importance because in ideal settings assuming perfect market efficiency fantasy drafts reward the teams who pick earlier in a snake draft. Therefore determining a keeper or dynasty fantasy football draft order is a very important aspect in keeping league play competitive.

Because of the change in the playoff format from an 8 team playoff to a 6 team playoff, discussion arose on the Brothers Keeper League Message Board via Commissioner's Note to determine the 2011 draft order. So Brothers Keeper needs to come up with a new way to determine the draft order after a season is over. The former order as outlined in II. E. of The Canons are re-posted here:
Section E: The Keeper League Draft Order: In an effort to prevent people from neglecting or throwing their playoff and consolation bracket games the next season’s draft order is subject to the previous season’s playoff results:

1st pick = 10th Place (Worst regular season record)
2nd pick = 9th Place (2d worst regular season record)
3rd pick = 5th Place (Winner of Consolation bracket)
4th pick = 6th Place (Loser of 5th place game)
5th pick = 7th Place (Winner of 7th place game)
6th pick = 8th Place (Loser of 7th place game)
7th pick = 3rd Place (Winner of 3rd place game)
8th pick = 4th Place (Loser of 3rd place game)
9th pick = 2nd Place (Loser of league championship)
10th pick = 1st Place (League Champion)
As a result of the playoff changes from an 8 team playoff to a 6 team playoff this draft order ruling no longer holds true as the last 4 teams in the regular season standings now enter into a 2 week consolation bracket.

The discussions according to the Commissioner's note (12/15/10), B Garner (12/12/10), and P Smith (12/15/10) came up with four or five suggested factors should be considered in determining the league's future draft order in order to keep the league as competitive as possible (a.k.a. parity):

1) League Champion should have last pick (10th) overall.
2) The regular season team total fantasy points scored.
3) The regular season standings (winning percentage).
4) The playoffs.
5) Strength of regular season schedule/total fantasy points against.

In an effort to visualize these potential elements let's utilize this year's results for the discussion of the alternate issues involved one at a time. (1) Obviously, Yer X-MOM is the 2010 Brothers Keeper league champion. However, knowing who should draft last does not resolve the rest of the draft order.

(2) Here's the logic behind considering the team's total fantasy points scored: the higher the total fantasy points scored the later your team should draft. If you utilize this method you need to consider the same time period for all teams. For example, the whole regular season of fantasy play. Yer X-MOM had the highest team total of fantasy points scored through the regular season of fantasy football (NFL weeks 1-13). It would logically follow that Yer X-MOM would pick 10th overall in 2011's fantasy draft because the draft actually rewards teams with earlier draft picks as demonstrated in the post: Do Bookends Rule? A Study on the Value of Draft Slots/Positions in a Snake Draft. If we consider the rest of the league's total team points for the regular season from the lowest to the highest the draft order would be thus:

2. Simba's Buttkicker! (1193.53 FP)
3. Points ON the Bench (1222.65 FP)
4. Kabuki Strikes Back (1380 FP)
5. Ghost (1418.61 FP)
6. SOCIAL ISoTopes (1445.81 FP)
7. TheSloppyButts (1448.64 FP)
8. Redman's CatClippers (1451.1 FP)
9. Yankinfowlsandfeline (1478.1 FP)
10. Yer X-MOM (1633.19 FP)

3) If we were to take the regular season standings (winning percentage) into account, we would end up with a few teams tied and need a tie breaker to determine who picks before the other. Screaming "First!" should not be the determining factor. Nevertheless, the draft order would look like this if the lowest regular season winning percentage teams had earlier picks than the highest winning percentage teams.:

1. Simba's Buttkicker! (.154)
2. Points ON the Bench (.231)
4. Kabuki Strikes Back (.462)
4. Ghost (.462)
6. Redman's CatClippers (.615)
6. Yer X-MOM (.615)
8. SOCIAL ISoTopes (.692)
8. TheSloppyButts (.692)
8. Yankinfowlsandfeline (.692)

4) If we were to look at the playoff results, including the consolation bracket, we'd have the following draft order as the reverse in the Final League Standings. We should probably use the team's place at the end of the playoffs rather than who won each consolation game thus foregoing rewarding consolation winners. The fantasy playoffs for any team in the consolation bracket or after being eliminated from the championship no longer are penalized for starting potential developmental players (players started in the playoffs for championship contenders are penalized starts toward their developmental eligibility status). The ruling that began the rewarding of teams that won consolation games was put in place in order to keep teams from "throwing" games (losing intentionally) in order to get a better draft position.

2. Kabuki Strikes Back
3. Simba's Buttkicker!
4. Points ON the Bench
5. Redman's CatClippers
6. SOCIAL ISoTopes
7. Ghost
8. Yankinfowlsandfeline
9. TheSloppyButts
10. Yer X-MOM

5) If we considered the strength of schedule and awarded teams with a harder regular season schedule the opportunity to have a better draft position for 2011, the draft order would be:

1. Simba's Buttkicker! (1526.57 FPA)
2. Ghost (1460.77 FPA)
3. Yer X-MOM (1430.79 FPA)
4. Kabuki Strikes Back (1420 FPA)
5. Points ON the Bench (1417.66 FPA)
6. Yankinfowlsandfeline (1387.66 FPA)
8. TheSloppyButts (1325.8 FPA)
9. SOCIAL ISoTopes (1303.08 FPA)
10. Redman's CatClippers (1207.56 FPA)

Not many of these options alone really works out well. Some of those draft orders reward teams with early draft picks that did really well and logically should draft later (e.g., Yer X-MOM would pick 3rd if we used FPA but is the champion who should pick last). What we need is a way to value each issue equally. We need a power ranking for our league's teams. Thankfully, if we wanted to weigh all of these factors equally, we need to use an equation I accessed a few years ago when trying to determine how to rank baseball or basketball players according to the specific statistical categories I wanted to utilize (or were required of my fantasy teams according to the league scoring settings). That meant rewarding players for high percentages in some categories, rewarding high stats in some categories and low stats in other categories. After some conversions here are the results that I have come up with to determine the fantasy draft order for 2011 (see the Draft Order Equation spreadsheet at the end of this post with the equation's explanation):

4 Factor Power Ranking Draft Order
1. Simba's Buttkicker!
2. Points ON the Bench
4. Kabuki Strikes Back
5. Ghost
6. Yankinfowlsandfeline
7. SOCIAL ISoTopes
8. Redman's CatClippers
9. TheSloppyButts
10. Yer X-MOM

While the 4 Factor Power Ranking Draft Order model considers the regular season strength of schedule a 3 Factor Power Ranking Draft Order would not. So for your consideration here is the model without the strength of schedule adjustment:

3 Factor Power Ranking Draft Order
1. Simba's Buttkicker!
3. Points ON the Bench
4. Kabuki Strikes Back
5. Ghost
6. Redman's CatClippers
7. SOCIAL ISoTopes
8. Yankinfowlsandfeline
9. TheSloppyButts
10. Yer X-MOM

4 Factors or 3 Factors?
Before entering into the debate as to whether or not the 4 Factor Power Ranking Draft Order is better than the 3 Factor Power Ranking Draft Order, it should be observed what these equations do. First, it levels the playing field for each stat involved by calculating the league averages (AVG) and the standard deviation (STDEV). Because there is more than one stat involved it demonstrates with a broader view how good teams really are. Third, the process circumvents potential negative outcomes like "throwing" games (intentionally losing). It is a pretty objective view of the health of each team after the fantasy season is over. It really does consider the important issues and does not focus on anything too small. Plus, either scenario, has the current league champion drafting last, though all that team's elements were considered along with the rest of the league's data.

The nice thing about seeing these two models is that you can see a team's merit regardless of their opponents (3 Factor Power Ranking Draft Order). Like I have stated before, "sometimes that one dude picks your man right before you were going to!" So the difference between these two models, while small is noticeable to 4 teams in particular (CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS, Points ON the Bench, Redman's CatClippers, and Yankinfowlsandfeline). The other 6 teams it will not effect their draft position if we utilize these two models.

In my humble opinion, the 3 Factor Power Rankinig Draft Order formula is more accurate in placing Yankinfowlsandfeline later in the draft than Redman's CatClippers. Redman's CatClippers gets bumped lower in the draft order of the 4 Factor Power Ranking Draft Order simply because he had such a ridiculously easy schedule (see the Strength of Schedule order above). Yankinfowlsandfeline was a much stronger team as indicated by a 1st round bye (regular season 1st place), 3rd place playoff finish, and 2d most fantasy points scored. Yankinfowlsandfeline had a very average strength of schedule and should not be rewarded because his strength of schedule happened to be more difficult than Redman's CatClippers's strength of schedule.

Now how should the league handle the other much more subtle difference in the draft order between Points ON the Bench and CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS? One draft pick could make all the difference for both of those teams in next year's draft. I'd be interested in the league's responses to this question. I would assume that CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS's team needs more help (if you look at the total fantasy points his team scored he ranked the lowest) but B Garner might not want to reward a team who failed so poorly in the consolation bracket. Points ON the Bench did perform better in the consolation bracket and scored more fantasy points in the regular season but had a poorer regular season winning percentage and had a more difficult strength of schedule, though not by much. Both teams were straddling the strength of schedule league average. CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS's team needs more help regardless of strength of schedule considerations and therefore the 3 Factor Power Ranking Draft Order makes more sense.

The only way I can think about testing the 3 Factor Power Ranking Draft Order or 4 Factor Power Ranking Draft Order for accuracy is to utilize previous seasons of Brothers Keeper fantasy football statistics to determine if the draft orders in the years that followed were in any way similar or even at least reasonable.

Actual 2008 Draft Order
2. Simba's Buttkicker!
3. Cleaning Lady
4. Redman
5. Squash
6. Team Cake Farts
7. Yer X-MOM
8. Ghost
9. Kabuki
10. Yank

2008 Test of 3 Factor Power Ranking Draft Order
2. Simba
3. Cleaning Lady
4. Squash
5. Ghost
6. Kabuki
7. Team Cake Farts
8. Redman
9. Yer X-MOM
10. Yank

Actual 2009 Draft Order
1. Simba's Buttkicker!
2. Yankinfowlsandfeline
3. Kabuki Strikes Back
4. Redman's CatPunters
5. Sea Buzzards
7. CustodianPandemonium
8. Yer X-MOM
9. Ghost
10. Favre$Footlong

2009 Test of 3 Factor Power Ranking Draft Order
1. Simba
2. Team Cake Farts
3. Yank
4. Squash
5. Kabuki
6. Redman
7. Cleaning Lady
9. Ghost
10. Yer X-MOM

Actual 2010 Draft Order (or here)
1. Kabuki Strikes Back
2. TheSloppyButts
3. Yankinfowlsandfeline
4. Redman's CatClippers
5. Ghost
6. Favre$Footlong
8. Simba's Buttkicker!
9. Sea Buzzards
10. Yer X-MOM

2010 Test of 3 Factor Power Ranking Draft Order
1. Kabuki Strikes Back
2. CustodianPandemonium
3. Favre$Footlong
4. Ghost
5. Redmans CatPunters
6. Sea Buzzards
7. Simba's Buttkicker!
9. Yer X-MOM
10. Yankinfowlsandfeline

If these tests demonstrate anything, it is that the 3 Factor Power Ranking Draft Order is not too far off of the normal draft experience we have already set up. While I haven't calculated the variance of these results (a low variance would be a good thing) a quick visual should show you that in general those who belong at the beginning of the drafts have actually been in the early picks in the draft. Those who belong in the middle of the draft are in the middle of the actual drafts and the those at the end of the draft order in the 3 Factor Power Ranking Draft Order are later in the Actual Draft results.  Since the the draft rewards the teams with the earlier picks with the opportunity to gain more fantasy points through the draft (as indicated by my study on Do Bookends Rule?) the 3 Factor Power Ranking Draft Order structure makes the most sense.

In conclusion, I propose the 3 Factor Power Ranking Draft Order as the means by which Brothers Keeper's 2011 fantasy football draft order should be determined.

*The far left column is the Team names
*The next column is Final Standings Rank (after the Playoffs)
*The next column is Final Standings Rank Conversion: It should reward the teams with the lower numbers and not higher numbers = Rank*-1
*The next column is the total regular season fantasy points scored (Pts For)
*The next column is the Winning Percentage (Win Pct) = # of team's wins/# regular season games (13)
*The next column is the Winning Percentage Conversion (Win Pct Conversion) = Win Pct*100
*The Strength of Schedule/FP Against (FPA) column is the total regular season fantasy points scored against
*FPA Conversion column converts the Strength of Schedule into negative numbers in order to reward the teams with harder schedules and penalize the teams with easier schedules = FPA*-1

**Final Rank! = (team's Rank Conversion - League AVG Rank Conversion)/STDEV of Rank Conversion
**Pts For! = (team's Pts For - League AVG Pts For)/STDEV of Pts For
**Win Pct! = (team's Win Pct Conversion - League AVG Win Pct Conversion)/STDEV of Win Pct Conversion
**Strength of Schedule! = (team's FPA Conversion - League AVG FPA Conversion)/STDEV of FPA Conversion

***3 Factor Power Ranking Draft Order Without Strength of Schedule = Final Rank! + Pts For! + Win Pct! This then is ranked from the lowest to the highest total (ascending order). The lower Final Rank! the higher the draft pick should be. The current spreadsheet is ranked with the 3 Factor Power Ranking Draft Order.
***4 Factor Power Ranking Draft Order = Final Rank! + Pts For! + Win Pct! + Strength of Schedule! This then is ranked from the lowest to the highest total (ascending order). The lower the Final Rank! the higher the draft pick should be. Note that this spreadsheet is not ranked by the 4 Factor Power Ranking Draft Order.

****Difference Between 4 Factor Power Ranking and 3 Factor Power Ranking Draft Order = 4 Factor Power Ranking Draft Order - 3 Factor Power Ranking Draft Order
Below the team totals (*) I have two lines that were utilized to calculate the League AVG and STDEV for each category that was utilized in the equations (**!).

*****Below the left/right navigation/scroll bar you will see multiple sheets/tabs with the previous years totals calculating the next year's drafts. The results were posted earlier in the blog but you can now see the numbers in detail. I did not use categories that were not part of the equation as was indicated in the 2011 Draft Equation.

Tuesday, January 11, 2011

Helpful Post-Fantasy Football NFL Links of Note

Fantasy football may be over for some time, but the NFL has plenty of news still going on. Here are a number of links you may be interested in consulting as we continue through the NFL playoffs for some and offseason for other teams.

ESPN: 2011 NFL Playoff Schedule with the times and dates and television stations airing the games.

The 2010 Seattle Seahawks: Worst. Playoff. Team. Ever? Something worth considering. Unfortunately Baltimore owns the worst playoff team ever... in basketball. I'm sure Brothers Keeper's Commissioner, M Peltonen will appreciate that he is simultaneously relieved of this embarrassment and that the onus is now on Yer X-MOM's P Smith! 2011 Player Movement Tracker This lists this offseason's free agents to watch. Note especially Oakland Raiders's CB Nnamdi Asomugha.

2011 NFL Draft Order Announcement This item will be update in the near future once the playoffs are completed. Some people absolutely live for the NFL Draft though.

Goodell: 'We can and will reach an agreement' on CBA hoping our 2011 Brothers Keeper fantasy football league is able to play a regular season.

1/12/11 UPDATE: Yesterday was 50 Days Away, A Lockout Looms Larger than Ever. It was good to see some items from a player's perspective.

1/12/11 UPDATE: From Numbers Show NFL’s ‘Economic Realities’ for Lockout Unwarranted

Monday, January 10, 2011

The 2010 Brothers Keeper 4 Champion: Yer X-MOM

Week 16
Our very first repeat, back-to-back, champion in Brothers Keeper history did a bang up job downing 3 of the league's top competitors in the playoffs for the 2010 title: Redmans CatClippers (D Pilcher), Yankinfowlsandfeline (J Smith), and TheSloppyButts (M R Smith). There are few acheivements in life as great as winning a keeper league and the 2010 Brothers Keeper 4's championship, Yer X-MOM (P Smith) wouldn't have it any other way:
I was in a total of 6 fantasy leagues this calander year. Two baseball and four for football. I made it to the championship game in all 6 leagues. I won half of them: one baseball (Heavy Hitters) and two football leagues (Brothers Keeper; miss-hits and miss-fits). If I had lost all of them but the Brothers Keeper league I would be happy with that. If I had won them all and lost in Brothers Keeper I would have been bummed.
The 2010 championship game had similar issues related to the 2009 championship matchup. Last year saw Yer X-MOM suffer through a game without S Jackson RB playing. This year, P Smith suffered through the loss of A Johnson WR and A Gates TE due to injuries. While O Daniels TE performed valiantly in A Gates TE stead (17.65 FP), D Branch WR was supposed to have a reasonably favorable matchup to cover for the loss of A Johnson WR but failed to live up to the hopes scoring only 3.25 FP. P Smith's bench players performed pretty well (D Bowe WR 19.65 FP; M Wallace WR 15.2 FP; S Jackson RB 14.75 FP). If a combination of these were included for C Johnson RB (5.8 FP) or A Johnson WR it would have been an even more dominant performance to make up for the lack luster performance by the NY Jets DEF (6 FP) and D Akers K (1 FP!!!).

M R Smith's TheSloppyButts played all the correct personelle for his best shot at the title save for S Holmes WR (11.75 FP), who happened to be on Yer X-MOM's roster last year. In M R Smith's kind congratulatory remarks via email to the champion he correctly noted another another big aspect that would have benefited his team greatly:
I wish the Eagles had performed even a little closer to par. I keep thinking about that very first Eagles possession, Vick threw a long ball to Jackson but overshot him a few yards. Jackson had his man beat, so if he had caught it it would have meant another 10+ points for me, which would have made things much more interesting. Oh well. 2nd place aint so bad. See you next year!
Having seen the play M R Smith referenced live that fateful Tuesday night, P Smith thought the same thing. That's the thing in fantasy football. Every week one player either makes the catch or the extra yard for a TD or they don't and all of fantasydom gasps or celebrates. This year was another memorable fantasy season, especially for P Smith's Yer X-MOM, our 2010 Brothers Keeper 4 Champion.