Thursday, January 3, 2013

The 2013 Brothers Keeper Draft Order

Two years ago, as a result of the new 6 team playoff format, discussion arose about what to do with the draft order. After a number of participants gave their input a new draft order was researched and proposed for implementation for the 2011 season. It was accepted and utilized and a competitive 2011 season ensued.

Following the 2011 draft order equation research and based off the Final 2012 Brothers Keeper 6 fantasy football season final standings, regular season winning percentage, and regular season total points scored (see the box above), the upcoming 2013 draft order would be as follows (if the method is still accepted by the league and the Commissioner without modification; here's the link to the Google Doc version of the spreadsheet):

As you can see, because the regular season winning percentage and point total matter for two thirds of the equation the draft order looks pretty solid. The weakest two teams will definitely be drafting in the first two spots. However, we will need to invoke the rule that the champion drafts last rather than the strongest team. Thus Rmmm's Golden Eagle will need to be placed in the 9th draft order position though his team appears stronger than the champion Yer X-MOM in the 3 Factor Draft Order Equation. He scored a large number of points in the regular season compared to Yer X-MOM.

For anyone concerned about Forever Tide not performing well in the consolation bracket we will consider the scenarios. Forever Tide went without a kicker and a team defense in week 15 and in week 16. Thus it could be gathered that Forever Tide intentionally lost the games for a better draft pick in 2013. However this does not appear to be the case.

While Forever Tide had a higher winning percentage during the regular season his regular season point total was very low due to a weak team or poor sit/starts. MOTHERSHIP RUSH actually scored stronger in the regular season but had a worse record than Forever Tide due to the hardest fantasy schedule in 2012. In theory his team was stronger than Forever Tide in 2012 and should draft after him based on points and points against. However, Forever Tide is not as weak as Holy Smoke or ThePunchin Munchkins and thus the draft order equation reflects this. With that said, MOTHERSHIP RUSH and Forever Tide are close enough in strength that if Forever Tide won the 9th Place consolation game in week 16 the two of them would be drafting in reverse order. That is, Forever Tide in 9th place and not 10th place would be drafting 4th rather than 3d. He would not have drafted 5th because he did not make the playoffs as did TheSloppyButts. This could appear to be significant, but in reality the total points scored in the regular season indicate he was weaker than MOTHERSHIP RUSH in 2012. I suspect Forever Tide may want to modify his drafting strategy. Straight fantasy points are not as accurate as fantasy points above or below a baseline (FPOB).

While Holy Smoke and ThePunchin Munchkins played to win in the consolation bracket and made it to the 7th place game, they were the weakest two teams in the league. They were so close that whoever won that week 16 game between one another would indeed draft second overall in 2013. The loser of that single game was to gain the first overall pick. However, this became the game to determine who was stronger between these two teams. Both teams played their hardest and did not intentionally bench anyone. The final results indicate it was a close game but ThePunchin Munchkins was indeed the better team and therefore should draft second overall in 2013, rather than first. Remember: In order to create league parity we want the worst team drafting first as it is the most advantageous draft position to draft from to better their team (see the research here).

Forever Tide
2012 Toilet Bowl Trophy Winner
The scenarios are generally not going to change who the first two teams are and who the second two teams are. All the consolation bracket did was award the Toilet Bowl trophy to Forever Tide. An embarrassing feat. It was his first consolation bracket appearance in his two seasons of play. It does not matter who won the consolation bracket.

Fundamentally it is the championship bracket that means most. Anything that promotes the regular season chances of the majority of teams to make the playoffs should be more important than who wins or loses a four team consolation bracket. The current draft order contributes to that. People want a great chance to make the playoffs to win the championship. The regular season does that and a 6 team playoff is way better than an 8 team playoff. How does one keep all of these prominent? At this juncture the league's canons seem to maneuver these issues very well and very intelligently.

If another draft order needs to be proposed I am all ears and would like to see the research. Over time this league has changed its draft order because of the update from an 8 team playoff format to a 6 team playoff format from an earlier discussion. But the main thing the 3 Factor Power Ranking Draft Order does is keep the league competitive by rewarding weaker teams with better draft picks for next year so they can have the best chance to advance and not remain weak thus creating parity within the league. It is a model for many other keeper leagues to follow. We've hammered out the issues and it is fun.

Wednesday, January 2, 2013

2012 Brothers Keeper Champion: The Year of Yer X-MOM

After finishing the regular season with a three game losing streak, Yer X-MOM (the 2011 Brothers Keeper Toilet Bowl Winner) got a bye week in the first round of the playoffs. Just the break with the past that was needed for two, close, last man remaining wins. Brothers Keeper has a new 3-Time Champion: Yer X-MOM (P Smith).

Yankinfowlsandfeline (J Smith) had defeated Yer X-MOM in week 4 and week 13 of the regular season. Yer X-MOM's nemesis of 2012. No other team had beaten Yer X-MOM twice in 2012. He had a chance for revenge on the biggest stage of all: the 2012 Brothers Keeper Championship Game. There is no other way to

The championship began with a large lead for Yer X-MOM after Matt Ryan's stellar game on Saturday night. However, Yankinfowlsandfeline (J Smith) regained the upper hand with a better performance by Aaron Rodgers. Other than the QBs, the rest of the players on both teams underperformed for the most part. Sure Randall Cobb and Joique Bell scored 13+ points but most other players did very little to note. All that remained after the late afternoon games was about a 25 point lead held by Yankinfowlsandfeline with only a lone RB left to play for Yer X-MOM ( P Smith).

Marshawn Lynch was drafted in the 8th round in 2011 by Yankinfowlsandfeline. After a terrible start to the year he was dropped. Yer X-MOM picked him up off the waivers and held on to him but did not start him throughout the rest of 2011. Lynch was started so few times that he was eligible as a developmental keeper for Yer X-MOM in 2012 worth only an 8th round pick. Yer X-MOM held on to the RB and was rewarded for it in the 2012 championship game against the man who dropped Lynch the year before. Loyalty is a wonderful thing. Payback even sweeter. Yer X-MOM going from worst to first is also significant.

Congratulations to all of this year's league participants. It was very competitive. Good luck this offseason.