Thursday, August 26, 2010

Final 2010 Fantasy Football Draft Prep: Don't Forget Conventional Wisdom

Pre-Draft Thoughts
My mind has been consumed by the upcoming Brothers Keeper fantasy draft. Should I or shouldn't I go and be there in person?

Who should I take out of these three players in my first pick? I know the two I don't draft won't be there when it comes back to my next pick.

What will each team in Brothers Keeper do with their picks when it is their turn? How can I predict their choices?

I've put together huge spreadsheets of information to try to figure these answers out. I've listed all the pros and cons for going or not going. I'm a wreck. I haven't slept more than 6 or 6.5 hours in a couple weeks. Okay, maybe last night I finally broke the 2 week trend, but still, it was a long time. I read the news I frequent but am neglecting other helpful items like Twitter. I am behind on other things I want to read too. I have other projects in mind for this blog that are being neglected and it all seems overwhelming considering I want to kill in this upcoming draft on Saturday. I'm 46 hours away from draft time and I know I don't have enough time to get all that I want prepped accomplished.

Just breathe man... just breathe.

Here's to Breathing
Draft time and location? Check. Driving directions? Check. Draft pick number? Check. Food? Check. Keeper draft order list? Check. The fantasy cheat sheet of choice? Check. Strategy to annoy leaguemates? Check.

You know the drill. You've been there. Done that. You've got your trophies and rings and bragging rights. So how did you get them? You prepared like there was no tomorrow. You read every fantasy magazine you could get your paws on. You scanned every free cheat sheet you could find on the inter webs. You know the experts advice like the back of your hand. You've mock drafted in every format available. Then you watched every meaningful preseason snap on DVR. You're up to date on all the Hard Knocks episodes. You're ready. It's ingrained in you deep ready to spill out on draft day. You can make it 46 hours.

"But wait! I forgot to look at who are the 3d year breakout WR candidates!? Which player is in a contract year playing his heart out for millions of dollars in the future!? Gasp! Who is injured!?"

Have no fear. There are websites that have these bastions of conventional fantasy football wisdom listed for free:

Here's your 3rd year NFL Wide Receivers, Latest NFL Injury Reports and News: Offensive Players , and 2010 Contract Year Players / 2010 Free Agents compliments of May your panic subside and your studies continue. See also's 2010 Draft Prep: The class of third-year receivers.

Now if you are D Pilcher of the Redman fantasy brand, you need to find yourself a good free fantasy football cheat sheet in order to stop pestering your leaguemates with the phrase, "Is _____ ____ a good player?" We know you need some help. Just pick a cheat sheet, print it out and go with it... and get some red sunburn so we aren't blinded when you wear shorts to the draft. Otherwise we'll be tempted to give you a cheatsheet from 3 years ago and suggest that Ryan Succuop is an awesome sleeper.

It is always good to review The Canons of Brothers Keeper too. But maybe that can wait till after the draft.

Que up the music. Make sure the A/C is on int he ECL room and keep in touch with this blog and League Message Board for the finalized draft day announcements.

Thursday, August 19, 2010

Who's Fantasy Football Sit/Start Advice Should You Follow? Weekly Lineup/Rankings Accuracy

Question: Who produces the most accurate fantasy football projections on a weekly basis during the fantasy season?

One of the cool things about the internet is that you get to see the hard work of others who do what you'd like to see results for but know you'd never have the time or resources to do for yourself. has done the fantasy football industry and fantasy players alike a tremendous job of collating the 2009 weekly rankings of industry experts, analyzing them (Accuracy Methodology), and then generating an Expert Accuracy Rankings – 2009 (cf. also their PAY™ [Prediction Accuracy Yield] Accuracy Scores). This work should be a valuable help when digesting which advice you might want to employ when considering disagreements and dilemmas in your sit/starts throughout the year. While this is an analysis of last year's weekly projections/forecasting, this year could potentially yield different results. We cannot evaluate future performance before it has happened! But you might be able to determine which voice among the experts you trust more.

Sunday, August 15, 2010

Brothers Keeper 4 (2010) Fantasy Football Draft Information

The 2010 NFL season kicks off when the World Champion New Orleans Saints hosts the Minnesota Vikings on Thursday September 9th at 7:30 PM CST.

Monday, September 6th, is Labor Day. Also known as the final day for fantasy football drafts. Information for the 2010 Brothers Keeper Fantasy Football draft can be found here:

Date: Saturday, August 28, 2010

Time: TBD (between 4:00 PM and 5:00 PM? CDT)

Place: Grace Memorial Baptist Church (in the ECL room; not the fellowship hall due to elections)
           58516 Pearl Acres Road
           Slidell, LA 70461-5422

View Larger Map

A couple of considerations. Due to elections, note that the location is not the Fellowship Hall as it was last time. It is in the ECL room (Early Learning Center).

Internet access will be available at the draft location I plan to be there via Skype or Google video chat if I am unable to attend in person (TBD). If you also Skype, please email me and let me know if you'd have a computer/laptop available to use for this purpose. If not, please let me know if someone is available to IM during the draft to communicate picks. I'd be very grateful for anyone's assistance in this regard. I can also set it up so that the Commissioner has live access to the 2010 Pre-Draft Spreadsheet (and here) whereby the blog is updated immediately for assistance of those not at the live draft location.

If others also plan to not be there physically I suggest making arrangements as well. I know how annoying it is to be at a live draft and have to wait for someone who is not physically available to make their pick (I'm not saying it has happened in our league). So let's be sure to try and alleviate any frustration in this regard as much as possible. We can do this through a number of means. Please plan for this ahead of time.

Food: I have no idea what you all would like to do in this area. Please contact the Commissioner if you want to see something coordinated as we had last year with food and drinks. The earlier we plan the better. Costs and food assignments will need to be delegated accordingly too. You can also respond to this on this blog or on the Yahoo! League Message Board.

Right now it is open as to what time the draft will begin. There are a number of considerations to remember in this regard. Does 4:00 PM CDT not work for you? Please describe your conflict ASAP.

Just by way of reminder, the current offseason trade between Yankinfowlsandfeline (R Rice RB and 14th Rd Pick) and TheSloppyButts (1st Rd and 4th Rd Pick) is under review for league vote for up to one week. Please vote any VETO votes on the Yahoo! League Message Board.

Please be sure to check this blog, your email, and league message boards regularly for more updates as we near the Brothers Keeper 4 (2010) Fantasy Football Draft.

Tuesday, August 10, 2010

Do Bookends Rule? A Study on the Value of Draft Slots/Positions in a Snake Draft

Building a Fantasy Football Draft Value Chart is the first step in a number of discussions and evaluations. Very early on when I built a prototype of the Ideal Draft Value Chart the question arose as to which draft pick position in a snake draft had the highest fantasy point value. What is the best fantasy football draft position in a Brothers Keeper draft? Assuming you need fantasy points in order to win more frequently (which isn't an assumption at all really) it made sense to ask that if an ideal draft occurred where each fantasy player picked the best available fantasy point scorer for the upcoming year with perfect efficiency one should know which draft pick position was the most valuable. Logically people assume the earliest picks have the most advantage. Writers have even tested this sort of thing out (cf. Lab Test: The Snake Draft by; see also their 2011 Draft Slots Analysis).

In ESPN's The Magazine's July 26, 2010 NFL Fantasy Special, Christopher Harris published a 13 point article under the title "So Crazy It's Genius." The 4th point's heading is "Bookends Rule." Here Harris uses fantasy research to determine which draft positions produce winners:
Does the No. 1 pick really give you an edge? Is the last pick really the worst?
     Yes. And no.
     We studied every fantasy draft from 1999 to 2009 and posed this question: What would happen if we redrafted each year based on average draft position? For instance, before the 2002 season, the top five in ADP were Marshall Faulk, Ahman Green, Shaun Alexander, Kurt Warner and Ricky Williams. So in our '02 redraft, those were the first five players selected. After our redrafts, we calculated how each of the resulting fantasy teams in each of those 10 years stacked up in final points. We did this twice. First we drafted six rounds each year and looked at the actual fantasy points each team accrued. Then, for comparison, we drafted only two rounds per year. The biggest winners were the teams with the first- and second- overall picks. But surprisingly, Team 10 went for the third-highest average point total. In other words, bookends ruled.
Then Harris lists the data for the two experiments in two charts:

A few things to consider when you think of Harris's results. First, the data might be skewed by the fact that ADP is not perfect market efficiency. Second, actual results may not account for savvy trading by those participants or some easy schedule of opponents in the fantasy league. Third, why not use perfect market efficiency instead to calculate the highest fantasy point teams?

So what would be the best draft position according to the Brothers Keeper Fantasy Football Draft Value Chart throughout an entire 15 round draft (using FPOB instead of straight fantasy points)?

Rank   Pos   Total FPOB
1         1       472.93
2         2       388.48
3         3       372.13
4         4       335.1
5         5       332.98
6         6       332.9
7         7       325.07
8         8       318.2
9         9       316.19
10       10     307.85

Rank   Pos   Total FPOB
1         1       419.2
2         2       358.76
3         3       343.65
4         4       323.58
5         6       282.18
6         5       280.31
7         7       278.35
8         8       275.94
9         10     262.97
10       9       262.94

Rank   Pos   Total FPOB
1         1       289.94
2         2       287.61
3         3       265.31
4         4       265.05
5         9       261.09
6         8       260.57
7         7       257.73
8         6       256.97
9         10     256.76
10       5       256.7

Rank   Pos   Total FPOB
1         1       357.88
2         2       301.27
3         3       293.22
4         4       282.01
5         5       276.85
6         6       252.25
7         7       239.85
8         8       236.17
9         10     228.94
10       9       222.63

4 Year Avg
Rank   Pos   Total FPOB
1         1       384.99
2         2       334.03
3         3       318.58
4         4       301.44
5         5       286.71
6         6       281.08
7         7       275.25
8         8       272.72
9         9       265.71
10       10     264.13

If we were to eliminate the negative FPOB, namely those picks after round 9, what would the results look like at the end of the first 9 rounds of a Brothers Keeper draft?

Rank   Pos   9 Rds of FPOB
1         1       555.44
2         2       470.17
3         3       453.28
4         4       414.84
5         6       412.95
6         5       412.13
7         7       402.9
8         9       397.09
9         8       396.82
10       10     390.76

Rank   Pos   9 Rds of FPOB
1        1        514.23
2        2        452.08
3        3        437.95
4        4        417
5        5        371.96
6        6        371.68
7        7        369.13
8        8        364.81
9        10      352.82
10      9        351.79

Rank   Pos   9 Rds of FPOB
1         1       376.1
2         2       373
3         3       352.71
4         4       351.23
5         9       346.12
6         8       345.97
7         5       343.53
8         10     343.24
9         7       342.7
10       6       342.55

Rank   Pos   9 Rds of FPOB
1         1       474.34
2         2       416.76
3         3       408.53
4         4       398.26
5         5       392.75
6         6       367.22
7         7       355.83
8         8       351.42
9         10     343.68
10       9       339.65

4 Year Avg
Rank   Pos   9 Rds of FPOB
1         1       480.03
2         2       428
3         3       413.12
4         4       395.33
5         5       380.09
6         6       373.6
7         7       367.64
8         8       364.76
9         9       358.66
10       10     357.63

The results challenge Harris's research. Obviously this is only theory. Perfect market efficiency is not reality. Savvy fantasy football players are in every draft position in leagues all throughout the internet. A more talented player can be in any seemingly poor draft position and do much better than his/her peers. But in a perfect world, with perfect market efficiency it makes most sense to see that in a 15 round draft with Brothers Keeper's scoring the first position in a draft is the most valuable. This makes sense if you consider the fact that in an odd number of rounds (15 or 9), the 1st draft position team chooses the first pick in a round more times than the team in the 10th draft slot.

For the 10th draft position to win a league's championship that player must overcome greater odds than those who pick earlier. Bookends do not rule in a perfect world. The 10th draft position is not at an advantage as Harris suggests.

This seems to correlate with the history of Brothers Keeper as a result of the current Brothers Keeper draft order rule (see Section II. E: The Keeper League Draft Order). Brothers Keeper has not had a repeat champion. Plus, Brothers Keeper has had a team go from worst to 1st. The draft is both helpful and detrimental to the correct teams from the previous year's final standings and so far the draft order regulations has leveled the playing field for the league in successive years.

Sunday, August 8, 2010

Brothers Keeper: Declaration Day!

It feels like Christmas! And here's the first gift to unpack! Brothers Keeper's 2010 Declarations!

I have indicated prior keepers with Y's iin the far right column. The amount of times a player has been kept in consecutive years is the same number of Y's indicated. For instance, a keeper with YYY has been kept three times or three years in a row to be more precise. All 1st Rd value keepers, whether listed in the 1st Rd or 2d Rd etc. are also indicated next to the Y. There is also an instance whereby a 2d Rd value is noted for players on Sea Buzzards team. These notes are helpful for the following years.

I will double check all the keeper value info tomorrow. If you see any errors please let me know promptly for correction. Thanks. Now without further ado:

Please stay tuned via this blog, email, and the league message board for the 2010 Brothers Keeper Draft date, time, and location to be determined within the next week.