Tuesday, August 28, 2012

2012 Brothers Keeper Draft Results

We had a tremendously good time along with good food (thanks J Smith and everyone else!). Glad to see all turned out for the draft... and one who arrived late again (D Kessler's new tradition)! We had one who was on the fence about being able to make it and arrived anyhow. Way to go Ghost! Thanks to all our wives for making it happen too. Great food and friendships all around. Even got injury updates throughout the draft (like last year's Arian Foster horror!). This time it was A Detroit RB and QB! What a way to see your leaguemates shudder!

There was on rule change announced, namely, the institution of a waiver wire, which was previously lacking. See a further post on this later on.

Here's the final draft, with the appropriate changes following the trade between ThePunchin Munchkins and Rmmm's Golden Eagle. They worked it out over lunch. I would have voted against it but Rmmm's Golden Eagle knew he wanted nothing to do with D Sproles RB.

You can access the spreadsheet, the league website, or see the results below.

Monday, August 20, 2012

2012 Brothers Keeper Draft: AWOL's Beware

Every year at the end of August we clear our schedules for the very purpose of fantasy football success. We study. We build spreadsheets. We chat up our fantasy league mates for info on their strategies. Some even plan the food while others plan draft scenarios sabotage. And most importantly we draft our own winning teams. We don't want anyone else claiming our season's success because they drafted for us in our absence. Do not go AWOL on your league.

Be there for the draft. Don't be embarrassed about it. If you're afraid of what your non-playing-fantasy-football friends think don't be. You like this game and drafting can be the most intense fun of the season. You work all year for a couple bucks and maybe a family vacation and you're a good father (or mother for the ladies with kids). No one is going to think you should be nominated for worst father of the year by skipping out on a few hours of "family time" to draft with some buddies one or two weekends. You put food on the table and shelter over the heads and clothes on backs. You can do this without guilt. Believe me. There are more guilty ways to spend a little spare time than being out with some fellas for a fantasy football draft.

2012 Brothers Keeper Draft
Here's the all too familiar skinny on the 2012 Brothers Keeper 6 fantasy football draft:

Date: Saturday, August 25, 2012
Time: 5:30 PM CDT
Place: Grace Memorial Baptist Church, Slidell, LA
          58516 Pearl Acres Rd., Slidell, Louisiana 70461 (Google Map)
Bring: Courage, $15, side dish, and drinks. Oh yeah, your draft info/cheatsheets... I'm not giving you mine. The money is to pay for delicious BBQ.

Don't be like the rest of Louisiana and geaux AWOL!

It'll be awesome. Don't miss it.

If you miss it, you'll be penalized with a bad 1st round pick like Colt McCoy QB... because we all just know you love Colt McCoy.

Even the man with twin babies will be there... and so can you.

If the man from Texas will be there, you're not too far to make the drive... despite high gas prices. You can do it.

Rating and Ranking the Accuracy of Fantasy Football Projection Sites: 2011 Season Results, Multi-Year Accuracy, Free Cheat Sheets, and Weekly Advice Winners

Is that a $2 bill? Where's that go?
Accuracy can really matter a lot. Maybe not always. But sometimes you really need predictions to be correct. Perhaps it's a pregnancy test. You don't want to be like a woman all hopeful on a false positive and then find out some prediction instrument was baseless. No one likes let downs like that. We don't like it in fantasy football either.

Employers like genuine numbers too. Usually numbers related to money. Working the checkout you need to be exact with your cash register. Boss's care about those pennies! Those stock holders need to be paid somehow! So if you are asking yourself, "Who has the most accurate fantasy football projections?" or "Which cheatsheet should I use?" or something along those lines, this post is for you because you care about winning. You don't want to put your stock in something worthless. Everyone knows and utilizes ADP.

The Accuracy of 2011 Preseason Fantasy Football Projections
So whose fantasy football draft rankings are the most accurate? Whose fantasy football projections are the best? I like accurate fantasy football projections and so should you. A couple years ago I introduced you to a blogger who has taken it upon herself to evaluate preseason fantasy football projections after the fantasy season was complete. Finally someone began holding those prognosticators feet to the proverbial fire. There was a huge void to fill and she has done so quite unbiasedly. Thankfully after each season the FFLibrarian does the major task of evaluating the most accurate fantasy football projections on the Internet (submitted to her) and then reports the accuracy results to the fantasy football playing masses (Bless you Fantasy Football Librarian!). So who has the most accurate fantasy football projections? Who is the best predictor of regular season fantasy football statistics? And by the way, she, thankfully, breaks it down by position for each year as well. So for your viewing pleasure check out: 2011 (2011's participants; see also the F.S.T.A. contest rules and F.S.T.A. contest results here; see previous contest awards too); 2010; 2009; 2008; and 2007.

The Fantasy Football Librarian is no longer alone. Now you can also see FantasyPros accuracy evaluations from individual experts. So head on over to FantasyPros where they employ their PAY methodology to evaluate individual preseason draft rankings from 2011 (and summary). See also the draft rankings from 2010 (and the full results where you can view individual positions if you'd like). This doesn't just give you just website rankings results but you can also see multiple individual experts from each site evaluated. So take a look and maybe get informed about whose fantasy football rankings you should check out. Others like ProFootballWeekly and The NY Times Fifth Down have picked up on FantasyPros work.

The Multi-Year Accuracy of Fantasy Football Projections
It is all about consistency. Which fantasy football sites have the most accurate projections over the course of several years? The FFLibrarian has also collated the results from each of the previous years of research/analysis into a handy Multi-year Accuracy Results thus determining which sites have been the most consistently correct over a longer period of time. See the previous post (FFLibrarian's Multi-year Accuracy Results) for 2009's results (yes, I think she skipped 2010... Kids will do that you know). It should be interesting to see which sites are climbing the ranks or falling compared to last year's Multi-year Accuracy Results.

Free Fantasy Football Cheat Sheets
If you haven't seen it, take a look at Fantasy Rundown's 2012 Fantasy Football Rankings and Cheat Sheets. There you will find a ton of rankings you can find for free all in one place nicely organized. Study up along with all the free flowing fantasy football news from my own FF & NFL News page. If you access my daily edited The Brothers Keeper Evening Star you can see past daily editions and read up on the news I highlight including fantasy football strategy articles and research. Check out my FF Tools page for more tools at your disposal. Some are free sites and others require money. You will also find some fantasy football research articles there and on my Advanced Stats page. Whatever the case you can't just use a cheat sheet any more. You need to be prepared with a plan and be up on the latest injury news and transitions on NFL

Weekly Sit/Start or Rankings Advice Accuracy
Another fantasy site (that I have mentioned before), FantasyPros began to evaluate the best weekly fantasy football sit/start advice in 2009. They did it again for each week of 2010 and 2011. So check out their full results and the interviews of their top experts from 2010 and some analysis after 2011 along with Which Fantasy Experts Like to Gamble? If you used FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rankings then you should see the results of using multiple combinations of sit/start advice (How Accurate are Expert Consensus Rankings?). By the way I have their widget on my NFL News page. It definitely advocates the "Wisdom of the Crowd" approach to your weekly sit/start decisions and gives you an idea for the accuracy of their widget.

Good luck drafting!

Tuesday, August 14, 2012

2012 Post-Keeper Pre-Draft Spreadsheet

Well, after an abnormal delay by our league we finally have our keepers set for the upcoming Brothers Keeper fantasy football season. There were some teams who had some very difficult decisions to make on who to keep (Ghost and TheSloppyButts come to mind). However, the stress is gone and our keepers are locked in for the upcoming draft.

Here is the Post-Keeper Pre-Draft Spreadsheet (link) for your preparation pleasure. Try saying that last sentence out loud ten times fast! That task alone ought to send R Johnson's head into overdrive and give the rest of the league another easy win when we play his team! Comic Shtick aside here is the spreadsheet (please make two notes: [1] V Cruz WR and L Robinson WR for Forever Tide is subject to change rounds once his preference is given; they were both 15th round values but one must become a 14th round value upon his choice; L Robinson WR will be 14th rd, and V Cruz a 15th rd pick; [2] Cal Johnson WR is a 1st Rd value for Ghost and has no 2d rd pick):

Please be sure to watch for draft day details coming in the near future. It is crunch time for studying and draft day prep. Good luck.