Friday, December 30, 2011

2012 Brothers Keeper Draft Order

Last year, as a result of the new 6 team playoff format discussion arose about what to do with the draft order took place. After a number of participants gave their input a new draft order was researched and proposed for implementation for the 2011 season. It was accepted and utilized and a competitive 2011 season ensued.

Following the 2011 draft order equation research and based off the 2011 Brothers Keeper 5 fantasy football season final standings, regular season winning percentage, and regular season total points scored, the upcoming 2012 draft order would be as follows (if still accepted by the league and the Commissioner; here's the link to the Google Doc version of the spreadsheet):

As you can see, because the regular season winning percentage and point total matter for two thirds of the equation the draft order looks pretty solid. The weakest two teams will definitely be drafting in the first two spots.

For anyone concerned about Yer X-MOM not performing well in the consolation bracket we will consider the scenarios. Yer X-MOM went without a kicker in week 15 and without a kicker and defense in week 16. Thus it could be gathered that Yer X-MOM intentionally lost the games for a better draft pick in 2012. However this does not appear to be the case.

While Yer X-MOM had a high point total during the regular season his regular season winning percentage was very low thanks to the hardest fantasy schedule in the league. However, four teams shared the same regular season winning percentage and missed the playoffs narrowly.

The consolation bracket week 15 games were then the most important. As noted, Yer X-MOM played without a kicker and lost to Simba's Buttkicker! by 18.46 points. The best kicker in all of fantasy football in week 15 produced 14 points (R Succop). Yer X-MOM lost because of the poor play by the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers DEF scored only 1 FP. B Roethlisberger QB only scored 8.2 FP. M Wallace WR scored .10 FP better at 8.3 FP. Those three along with their RB R Mendenhall (who was benched in favor of more productive RBs) were the primary reason Yer X-MOM performed poorly in Week 15. Plus, G Jennings WR was injured and not playing but also not started because of the injury. The loss did not occur because he did not start a kicker. If you think he did not set his lineup you will see the starting lineup from week 13 and 14 are different than week 15's lineup. Besides, Simba's Buttkicker! is his nemesis and he would never want to intentionally lose to his sorry team. Even if it was expected that Yer X-MOM was a better team and should have won it did not happen as expected.

The scenarios are generally not going to change the first two teams and the second two teams. All the consolation bracket did was award the Toilet Bowl trophy to Yer X-MOM. An embarrassing feat after winning back to back championships in 2009 and 2010. It was his first consolation bracket appearance. It matters not who won the consolation bracket.

Fundamentally it is the championship bracket that means most. Anything that promotes the regular season chances of the majority of teams to make the playoffs should be more important than who wins a four team consolation bracket. The current draft order contributes to that. People want a great chance to make the playoffs to win the championship. The regular season does that and a 6 team playoff is way better than an 8 team playoff. How does one keep all of these prominent? At this juncture the league's canons seem to maneuver these issues very well and very intelligently.

If another draft order needs to be proposed I am all ears and would like to see the research. Over time this league has changed its draft order because of the update from an 8 team playoff format to a 6 team playoff format from an earlier discussion. But the main thing the 3 Factor Power Ranking Draft Order does is keep the league competitive by rewarding weaker teams with better draft picks for next year so they can have the best chance to advance and not remain weak thus creating parity within the league. It is a model for many other keeper leagues to follow. We've hammered out the issues and it is fun.

Wednesday, December 28, 2011

Ghost Year: 2011 Final Regular Season Standings and Playoff Results

Points ON the Bench didn't complete the comeback push to enter the playoffs despite MOTHERSHIP RUSH and Rmmm's Golden Eagle suffering late season slides. Points ON the Bench misses the playoffs. What a shame since he was so disappointed with his draft.

Here are the final regular season standings:

You will remember that the regular season standings (win pct) and total points scored are important for the new 3 Factor Power Ranking draft order equation Brothers Keeper employs.

The first week of the playoffs, the quarterfinals, centered on two matchups: the 4th seeded team (Forever Tide) played the 5th seeded team (Rmmm's Golden Eagle) while the 3d seed (TheSloppyButts) played the 6th seed (MOTHERSHIP RUSH). In short the favorites won. Forever Tide beat Rmmm's Golden Eagle 137.55 to 108.68 and TheSloppyButts defeated MOTHERSHIP RUSH 117.34 to move to the semifinals.

The top two teams, Ghost and Yankinfowlsandfeline, earned a quarterfinal bye and awaited the results of the other playoff contenders.

In the semifinals Ghost trounced Forever Tide, 155.46 to 92.93. TheSloppyButts took Yankinfowlsandfeline to the wood shed and beat him 128.74 to 81.55. The top regular season point scorer was upended. It wasn't completely the fault of A Rodgers QB, when Green Bay suffered their first loss of the season. It happened to be that everyone Yankinfowlsandfeline started had a bad week as each of his players played on losing teams in week 15.

Then came the championship final between Ghost and TheSloppyButts. Both teams had yet to complete a playoff run to win the trophy. There was going to be a new Brothers Keeper Champion in 2011. It was a testament to their teams strength that both teams arrived in the finals. TheSloppyButts lost J Charles RB to the IR early in the season and then later lost the productive D Murray RB to injury as well. Ghost also lost a lot of dominate players in the year. F Jackson RB went down late and D McFadden continued his yearly injuries. However, A Peterson RB who had missed 3 weeks due to an injury came back for the fantasy playoffs. But as soon as he played in the week 16 championship game he went down after scoring 12.5 FP. He went down hard and tore his ACL thanks to the low tackle. It looked ugly on TV... ugly for Ghost too. By the end of Saturday night's games on Christmas Eve Ghost was down by 55.94 FP with 53.5 points. With 2 games remaining and 4 players yet to play on Ghost's team, TheSloppyButts stood at 109.44 FP and had no remaining players left to play. Santa came and visited this friendly Ghost and delivered more than enough to win the 2011 Brothers Keeper Championship. Ghost's final score was 125.47 FP. It is Ghost's first championship trophy in Brothers Keeper league play. Congratulations Ghost on your title.

Playoff Results of both the championship and consolation brackets:

1. Ghost
2. TheSloppyButts
3. Yankinfowlsandfeline
4. Forever Tide
6. Rmmm's Golden Eagle
7. Simba's Buttkicker!
8. Points ON the Bench
9. ThePunchin Munchkins
10. Yer X-MOM

In other news, the NFL will conduct eight regional combines beginning in 2012. Plus, NBC along with the NFL will stream the Wild Card games, the Pro Bowl and the Super Bowl online. I have begun to update the Brothers Keeper Ideal Draft Value Chart for 2011's results. Plus I will report the 2012 Brothers Keeper Draft Order along with the equation within the week. Enjoy your fantasy offseason and look forward to 2012. I hope it will be just as fine as 2011 was.

Thursday, December 1, 2011

Week 12 Aftermath: Bite the Dust

Well it was only a matter of time before the inevitable: Simba's Buttkicker! (R Johnson) failed to make the playoffs. In five years of Brothers Keeper play he has now missed the playoffs four times. He is not alone however, as the reigning two-time champion Yer X-MOM (P Smith) and ThePuchin Munchkins (M Peltonen) also became casualties of the week 12 aftermath.

It wasn't a superior effort, but all three teams lost their chance to contend in the postseason. Points ON the Bench still has a chance. In fact, he will contend with Forever Tide in the upcoming week 13 matchup. Forever Tide, Rmmm's Golden Eagle, and MOTHERSHIP RUSH all have yet to clinch their playoff spot. While Points ON the Bench is one loss under the other three teams, it should be noted that MOTHERSHIP RUSH has fallen hard losing five of his last six matchups. One of these four teams will join one of the three teams already eliminated from the playoffs once week 13 is complete.

So which matchups are important this week? Put simply, the three matchups that all have playoff contenders playing. However, one of those three matchups has two contenders playing against one another: Points ON the Bench (5 - 7) v. Forever Tide (6 - 6). They will need to analyze their lineups two or three times before the start of each NFL game in week 13. It is deathly important.

So good luck and here's to the enjoyment of the final week of the regular season!

Wednesday, November 23, 2011

Liberty and Peace? The Thanksgiving Beat Down

"You are hereby pardoned!"
As you may have gathered from today's news, Liberty and his understudy Peace were pardoned by the President of the United States of America for release from captivity to live out a life of tranquility at Mount Vernon. But for some Brothers Keeper fantasy football players it will be anything but peace and liberty this weekend. Only three teams have clinched a playoff birth while the seven remaining teams haven't.

Just when you thought you had heard the last of the 3 - 7 teams, ThePunchin Munchkins and Points ON the Bench, we were all surprised to see their new lease on life. These turkeys were given their own pardon when they won their week 11 contests. In conjunction with their wins, the two 4 - 6 teams, Simba's Buttkicker! and Yer X-MOM lost. Plus, both 5 - 5 teams lost, that is, Rmmm's Golden Eagle and Forever Tide.

If the past two weeks weren't exciting enough in Brothers Keeper they will now become a distant memory to the excitement of the next two weeks when the regular season standings are finalized for playoff placements. Every single one of this week's games/matchups features a team vying for entrance into the playoffs. No one is mathematically eliminated yet and the race is even tighter than last week. Even MOTHERSHIP RUSH has yet to clinch despite his 6 - 5 record. He could continue his second half collapse and with two more losses he could miss the playoffs like three others.

Let's look at this week's matchups to see the potential standings going into the final week. The first matchup of importance is between Rmmm's Golden Eagle and Yer X-MOM. If Yer X-MOM wins he will have a tied record with Rmmm's Golden Eagle. As of now, Rmmm's Golden Eagle is leading in total points scored this year by 63.64 FP. Yer X-MOM's poor week 11 performance put him at a further disadvantage in that category. But the win is important first for these two teams. Without a winning percentage tie the total FP scored is of no concern at the end of the regular season.

The second most important game is the matchup between MOTHERSHIP RUSH and Forever Tide. While both are currently in a playoff spot they both could easily lose it. Both teams are the lowest scoring teams of the current playoff contenders. Two of the  4 - 7 teams have comparable fantasy point totals and will be difficult to overcome if MOTHERSHIP RUSH or Forever Tide loses this game. It is more important that Forever Tide wins than for MOTHERSHIP RUSH due to the one win more advantage.

The final three matchups this week will pit one team that has clinched a playoff spot against a team that is 4 - 7. Simba's Buttkicker!, Points ON the Bench, and ThePunchin Munchkin all have the difficult position of being on the fence against formidable foes. If they all three lose their chances will be diminished significantly. If this scenario plays out and Rmmm's Golden Eagle and Forever Tide both win all four of the 4 - 7 teams will be mathematically eliminated. So it is still important to the 4 - 7 teams to see one or both of the 5 - 6 teams falter this week to their foes. If all the 4 - 7 teams win and Forever Tide loses to MOTHERSHIP RUSH we could have 6 teams all at 5 - 7 once week 12 ends. All teams will still have to fight on for the last two playoff seeds.

Seven of the ten Brothers Keeper teams have yet to learn this year's fate. As of now, there is no telling which turkeys will be set free to roam the playoffs or which ones will suffer a life threatening beat down. Hopefully it will be less convoluted after the Thanksgiving weekend games. Happy Thanksgiving.

Tuesday, November 15, 2011

An Updated Look at the Standings Going Forward

With an exciting week 10 of Brothers Keeper matchups behind us, the current standings are thus:

Now let's make a few observations about the future. Ghost has clinched the playoffs. He cannot miss the playoffs. He still can and should attempt to maintain one of the top two positions in order to gain a week 14 bye and guarantee an appearance in the semifinals in week 15. With his record of playoff collapses he will need everything he can to help himself succeed at that critical juncture.

With three weeks remaining in the regular season and with five remaining playoff spots yet to be confirmed it is anyone's guess as to what will happen. If we were to assume that all three teams currently at 6 - 4 win one of their next three remaining games, they will be at a minimum of a 7 - 6 record. While this does not guarantee a playoff spot as the four teams with either the 5 - 5 record and 4 - 6 record could also achieve this (although I have not considered the matchups at this point either to see if this were possible), it does put them at a much higher probability of making the playoffs. It would be hard for them to miss the playoffs because they would not only have to lose two games but also be beaten out by total points for the season. So let's skip to the lower probability bunch of teams vying for the 5th and 6th playoff seeds. That's where the action is and where the more important fight is on, namely, to enter the playoffs or be disgraced.

Rmmm's Golden Eagle and Forever Tide currently sit in those 5th and 6th playoff seed positions. In order to give them the best chance to make the playoffs they need to win their next three games giving them an 8 - 5 record. Obviously. Does this seem likely? Let's take a look at their upcoming matchups.

Rmmm Golden Eagle's remaining matchups are against ThePunchin Munchkins, Yer X-MOM, and Yankinfowlsandfeline. On first appearance this looks to be one easy matchup, one neutral matchup, and one difficult matchup. ThePunchin Munchkins can play a spoiler role for Rmmm's Golden Eagle in week 11. Yer X-MOM is just as tough as Rmmm's Golden Eagle and is playing for a playoff spot of his own. Then Rmmm's Golden Eagle plays a difficult final game of the regular season against Yankinfowlsandfeline. Rmmm's Golden Eagle's chance at the playoffs is probably right about 50%. The game with Yer X-MOM will be the most crucial but week 11 against ThePunchin Munchkins is no gimme either since a number of important players on Rmmm's Golden Eagle will be on their bye. Regardless, Rmmm's Golden Eagle probably has the best chance to keep the 5th playoff seed spot he currently resides in.

Forever Tide's remaining games are against Ghost, MOTHERSHIP RUSH, and Points ON the Bench. Forever Tide has one difficult matchup and two opponents he is more evenly matched with. The key to Forever Tide's success as a fantasy team is his two main RBs. Unfortunately, both R Mathews RB and S Jackson RB each have two very difficult run defenses to play against on week 11 and week 13. Forever Tide will need to focus on winning week 12 against MOTHERSHIP RUSH to give himself the best chance to at least be in mix for the 6th playoff seed going into week 13. Otherwise losing three games may seal his fate if Yer X-MOM wins one game. Points ON the Bench could very well be this rookie's spoiler at a playoff berth come week 13.

What about Yer X-MOM and Simba's Buttkicker!? Do they have a legitimate shot at making the playoffs while currently at 4 - 6? In theory they would need to win at least two of their next three games and have one or both of the 5 - 5 teams lose two of their next three games, just to tie them in wins. Obviously then it comes down to total points thereafter for any ties. But let's look at their schedules for clarity.

Yer X-MOM will play Yankinfowlsandfeline, Rmmm's Golden Eagle, and TheSloppyButts. From a pure total fantasy point perspective Yer X-MOM has the hardest remaining schedule of the four teams competing for the 5th and 6th playoff spots. Plus, Yer X-MOM has A Foster RB, B Roethlisberger QB, M Wallace WR, and R Mendenhall RB on a bye in week 11. That is one unlucky bye week disadvantage. The odds for Yer X-MOM making the playoffs may be better than Simba's Buttkicker! but definitely not as good as Rmmm's Golden Eagle and Forever Tide. He will definitely need to take it one game at a time and hope for the best case scenario. It will come down to the depth of his bench players covering the week 11 byes.

Simba's Buttkicker! is scheduled to compete against TheSloppyButts, Ghost, and MOTHERSHIP RUSH. Simba's Buttkicker! by far has the most difficult road to attain the playoffs on account of three things. First, he has the league's worst total fantasy points scored. Second, he plays two of the top three fantasy point scorers in the league this year. His "easiest" opponent will be MOTHERSHIP RUSH who has outscored Simba's Buttkicker! by 75.95 points this season, a mere 7.595 FP per game. The third factor that will be detrimental to Simba's Buttkicker's downfall is the potential season ending Lisfranc injury to QB Matt Schaub.

So who will play this year's spoiler? Who will hold on to their playoff spot? Who will catch the winds of chance and make the improbable happen? We shall see as it continues. So play hard till the end. There's no fat lady within sight yet.

Thursday, November 10, 2011

Evaluating the Current State of the League Standings

At Brothers Keeper we are at an interesting crossroads in the 2011 campaign. With ten teams contending for six playoff spots a completely competitive weekend of matchups begins tonight with the start of Thursday night NFL games. So let's take some time to look at the current state of the league's standings and where it could end up after week 10.

The current Brothers Keeper standings:

Let's begin with a few observations. The first place team is the leading point scorer. The last place team has scored the least amount of fantasy points. This is usually expected but not always true. It should be noted that 267.98 fantasy points separate the top team from the worst team which averages out to 29.76 points per week. This is a significant advantage.

To break it down more broadly, four teams have scored more than 1000 FP with two of those over 1100 FP. Four of the five teams that have scored over 900 points only have 17.01 FP separating them.

However, if we were to consider the league as a whole the average fantasy points scored is 996 with a standard deviation of 84 points. Spread out over nine weeks and the average score is 110.67 fantasy points with teams winning by about 9.34 points. It is remarkably competitive this year as evidenced also by a number of games decided by less than 1 fantasy point. If week nine's results were different, Brothers Keeper could have had two teams at 5 - 4, six teams at 4 - 5, and one team at 3 - 6. That is nine teams vying with a significant chance for the last five playoff spots with four weeks of play remaining.

Because of this week's matchups the standings could potentially be more compact:

1. Ghost could be 8 - 2 or 7 - 3 (plays Points ON the Bench)
2. MOTHERSHIP RUSH could be 7 - 3 or 6 - 4 (plays Yankinfowlsandfeline)
3. Yankinfowlsandfeline could be 6 - 4 or 5 - 5 (plays MOTHERSHIP RUSH)
4. TheSloppyButts could be 6 - 4 or 5 - 5 (plays Forever Tide)
5. Forever Tide could be 6 - 4 or 5 - 5 (plays TheSloppyButts)
6. Rmmm's Golden Eagle could be 5 - 5 or 4 - 6 (plays Simba's Buttkicker!)
7. Simba's Buttkicker! could be 5 - 5 or 4 - 6 (plays Rmmm's Golden Eagle)
8. Points ON the Bench could be 4 - 6 or 3 - 7 (plays Ghost)
9. Yer X-MOM could be 4 - 6 or 3 - 7 (plays ThePunchin Munchkins)
10. ThePunchin Munchkins could be 4 - 6 or 3 - 7 (plays Yer X-MOM)

Obviously not all three teams currently at 3 - 6 will be 4 - 6 since two of those teams play each other. This was just a scan of each team's win - loss records if they won or if they lost. By using fractional points, it is hard to imagine a tie will occur in any of this week's matchups. But this should be a quick guide for you to consider what the potential standings will be after week 10 if you think through each matchup's winner or loser.

Moving from the bottom to the top of the standings, what we can affirm for sure about the standings after week 10 is as follows:

1. There will be at least one team at 3 - 7, possibly two at most.
2. There will be at least two teams at 4 - 6, possibly three at most.
3. There will be at least two teams at 5 - 5, possibly three at most.
4. There will be at least one team at 6 - 4, possibly three, but not two.

This means that there is a ton of potential for most teams to still fight for the playoffs in the final three weeks of the regular season. In the most competitive week ten standings eight teams could be within two wins of one another. That would be three teams at 4 - 6, two at 5 - 5, and three at 6 - 4. It ain't over until it is over folks.

So how did it get this way? My guess, the new 3 Factor Power Ranking Draft Order, better drafting (although we will need to see if this is true after the season is completed), better team building (keeper declarations), and possibly better sit/start decisions has helped the parity. These will have to be explored at a later date, but the fact remains that Brothers Keeper is healthy in its competition this year.

Wednesday, November 9, 2011

The Success Cycle of Fantasy Football

I love to watch a professional sports organization be smart.

Having had the good fortune of living in Dallas, TX the past decade it was more enjoyable for me to watch the process of how the Texas Rangers built their team than to merely see them attend the World Series in consecutive years. The youngest General Manager in MLB history, Jon Daniels, began his work in 2005. When he initially landed the GM position he had pieces at the Major League level that he could use to grow lasting success in the future (e.g., Mark Teixeira, Adrian Gonzalez, R. A. Dickey, Edison Volquez etc.). He wasn't cavalier about it, he just knew it wasn't the right time for the organization to push for a championship when he began. So he built a farm system envied by the rest of baseball. He drafted high upside prospects and even did moves to gain extra earlier draft picks. Daniels signed talented players from foreign countries too. He built the organizations strong foundation.

But that's not the only thing. Daniels also knew when to trade away the future talent for a chance at the playoffs. At a certain point an organization can only hold on to so much talent in the farm system before it bottlenecks into stunted or unusable talent. Jon Daniels knew that was the scenario early in 2010 and has been able to extend the Texas Rangers' success by not selling the entire farm in just one year. What I was able to witness and enjoy over the course of 6+ years has been dubbed "The Success Cycle." There was a time to buy and a time to sell and the organization has produced success in ways it never had before and Jon Daniels was the smart one who knew where on that cycle the team was at any given time.

In annual redraft fantasy football leagues you don't have this Success Cycle that keeper or dynasty fantasy leagues offer. Your team is largely based on how good your draft goes. However, for keeper or dynasty leagues we get to think about building our teams all year long. We make waiver wire pick ups and drops and trades with this constantly in mind. The hesitancy to move is much more evident. Trades get analyzed for years. They will either help or haunt you for a long time. Knowing where your team is on the Success Cycle will help you go a long way in preparing for next year.

First, you need to know your league's rules. How many teams enter the playoffs? How many keepers will you be able to retain and what will be their future draft value? How many fantasy points has your team totaled over the course of the season compared to other teams in the league. How many fantasy points have been scored against your team during the course of the season thus far? Have you had a hard schedule or a difficult schedule? Were you plagued by injuries or bye week collapses? These and other factors will help you figure out your team's current status on the Success Cycle.

Second, once you know your team's status on the Success Cycle you need to plan and execute the actions that you deem helpful to advance the way you want your team to advance. Otherwise you are remaining stable sticking to the original plan, whether it will be successful or not.

By the end of week 10 you know where your keeper or dynasty fantasy football team is in the standings and whether or not it has a chance to make the playoffs this year or not. Some leagues, like this year's Brothers Keeper standings remain competitive far into the league year by curbing parity through the 3 Factor Power Ranking Draft Order. While perennially successful teams like P Smith's Yer X-MOM and M Peltonen's ThePunchin Munchkins have never missed the playoffs in Brothers Keeper league history, both currently share a 3-6 win-loss record going in to week 10. They both happen to be playing one another in week 10. The loser of the week 10 matchup will likely miss the playoffs despite the fact that there are currently three teams at 5-4, two teams at 4-5, and three teams at 3-6. The same can also be said of Point ON the Bench if he loses in week 10 to the first place team, Ghost (currently 7-2). He is the third team with the 3-6 win-loss record. So, depending on the week 10 results Brothers Keeper should begin to see teams either trade for a better chance to win the championship or begin the planning for 2012 thus entering the second step. Where some teams are in the Success Cycle will be readily apparent.

Where your team is on the Success Cycle matters and keeper or dynasty league teams should be encouraged to buy or sell accordingly with the impending trade deadlines nearing quickly (for Brothers Keeper that is, Friday November 18th). Whether you are buying or selling any keeper or dynasty league owner should take an honest assessment of where their team is on The Success Cycle, create a plan that you think will advance you and try to execute the plan. Good luck!

Tuesday, September 6, 2011

NFL Cutdowns and Practice Squads

Just wanted to drop a quick note to annotate a couple of pre-week 1 NFL news items. If you are the obsessive compulsive type and need a good place to check your NFL team or would like more education going into your fantasy analysis then be sure to check out PFT's 53-Man Roster Cutdown Tracker and their Practice Squad Tracker. If you want to know what all goes into an NFL practice squad theoretically then read National Football Post's Understanding the NFL practice squad. If you're interested in looking at the depth charts of NFL teams head on over to Football Guys's NFL Team Depth Charts where you can see an up-to-date depth chart of every team all on one page. Very concise and helpful. Good luck on your 2011 fantasy football season.

Monday, August 29, 2011

The 2011 Brothers Keeper 5 Draft Results

On Saturday August 27th 2011 at 5 PM CST the entirety of the 10 team Brothers Keeper fantasy football league finally sat down for the highly anticipated good time of food and drafting. The League Commissioner noted it was the first time the whole league had met together in person. It was a tour de force of manhood. Basically a whole lot of fun ribbing and jawing and competing for the 2011 trophy.

A great big thank you to J Smith (Yankinfowlsandfeline) for his very good BBQ. He procured the meats of every standard BBQ variety and smoked 'em good with pecan and cherry woods. It was fantastic. As a budding smoker of meats myself I was pleased with the results of so many items. He served up ribs, brisket, pulled pork, chicken, and sausage along with his take on grits. Take a gander for yourself. We had so much we had to-go boxes and I polished mine off for breakfast the next day. Thanks again J Smith for your kind sacrifice of time and money. I hope our smiles and gushing over your feast offerings were pleasing to your ears. Excellent job and thanks so much.

It was an exceptional draft too. Rilvaries were stoked and a whole lot of smiles were visible. Poor D Kessler had his preferred picks drafted right before him often enough that he left the drafting table in consternation at one point not knowing it was his pick to draft. M R Smith called out in the middle of the draft that A Foster was injured trying to throw P Smith off his game. It was true but nothing could be done to make the reigning champ waiver in his foot steps.

Thank you guys for the good time and being so cooperative in making it go so smooth. File it away in the good memory bank even if you don't like your draft (right D Kessler?). Thanks again for prying yourself out of your man caves and doing this draft justice with your presence. A handful of guys traveled from out of town to be there and that was not overlooked. Thanks, too, for filling out the Brothers Keeper blog questionnaire. I appreciated the input and hope to respond accordingly.

Here's the 2011 Brothers Keeper 5 Fantasy Football Draft results (to download):

Good luck on your fantasy season.

Tuesday, August 23, 2011

Rating and Ranking the Accuracy of Fantasy Football Projection Sites: 2010 Season Results, Multi-Year Accuracy, Free Cheat Sheets, and Weekly Advice Winners

Accuracy can really matter a lot at times. Maybe not always. But sometimes you really need predictions to be correct. Perhaps it's a pregnancy test? You don't want to be like a woman all hopeful on a false positive and then find out some prediction instrument was baseless. No one likes let downs like that. We don't like it in fantasy football either.

Employers like genuine numbers too. Usually numbers related to money. Working the checkout you need to be exact with your cash register. Boss's care about those pennies! Those stock holders need to be paid somehow! So if you are asking yourself, "Who has the most accurate fantasy football projections?" or "Which cheatsheet should I use?" or something along those lines, this post is for you because you care about winning. You don't want to put your stock in something worthless.

The Accuracy of 2010 Preseason Fantasy Football Projections
So whose fantasy football draft rankings are the most accurate? Whose fantasy football projections are the best? I like accurate fantasy football projections and so should you. Last year I introduced you to a blogger who has taken it upon herself to evaluate preseason fantasy football projections after the fantasy season is completed. Finally someone is holding those prognosticators feet to the proverbial fire. There was a huge void to fill and she has done so quite unbiasedly. Thankfully after each season she does the major task of evaluating the most accurate fantasy football projections on the Internet (submitted to her) and then reports them to the fantasy football playing masses (Bless you Fantasy Football Librarian!). So who has the most accurate fantasy football projections? Who is the best predictor of regular season fantasy football statistics? And by the way, she, thankfully, breaks it down by position for each year as well. So for your viewing pleasure check out: 2010 (see also the F.S.T.A. contest results here); 2009; 2008; and 2007.

The Fantasy Football Librarian is no longer alone. Now you can also see FantasyPros accuracy evaluations from individual experts. So head on over to FantasyPros where they employ their PAY methodology to evaluate individual draft rankings from 2010 (see also the full results where you can view individual positions if you'd like). This doesn't just give you just website rankings results but you can also see multiple individual experts from each site evaluated. So take a look and maybe get informed about whose fantasy football rankings you should check out. Others like ProFootballWeekly and The NY Times Fifth Down have picked up on FantasyPros work.

The Multi-Year Accuracy of Fantasy Football Projections
It is all about consistency. Which fantasy football sites have the most accurate projections over the course of several years? The FFLibrarian has also collated the results from each of the previous years of research/analysis into Multi-year Accuracy Results thus determining which sites have been the most consistently correct over a longer period of time. See the previous post (FFLibrarian's Multi-year Accuracy Results) for last year's 2009's results. She has indicated since March that she will update the Multi-Year Accuracy Results with the 2010 season results but has yet to do so. Check back here or on her site and I will update this post when she does. It will be interesting to see which sites are climbing the ranks or falling compared to last year's Multi-year Accuracy Results.

Free Fantasy Football Cheat Sheets
If you haven't seen it, take a look at Fantasy Rundown's 2011 Fantasy Football Rankings & Cheat Sheets. There you will find a ton of rankings you can find for free all in one place nicely organized. Study up along with all the free flowing fantasy football news from my own FF & NFL News page. If you access my daily edited The Brothers Keeper Evening Star you can see past daily editions and read up on the news I highlight including fantasy football strategy articles and research. Check out my FF Tools page for more tools at your disposal. Some are free sites and others require money. You will also find some fantasy football research articles there and on my Advanced Stats page. Whatever the case you can't just use a cheat sheet any more. You need to be prepared with a plan and be up on the latest injury news and transitions on NFL

Weekly Sit/Start or Rankings Advice Accuracy
Another fantasy site (that I have mentioned before), FantasyPros began to evaluate the best weekly fantasy football sit/start advice in 2009. They did it again for each week of 2010 too. So check out their results and the interviews of their top experts. If you used FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rankings then you should see the results of using multiple combinations of sit/start advice (How Accurate are Expert Consensus Rankings?). By the way I have their widget on my NFL News page. It definitely advocates the "Wisdom of the Crowd" approach to your weekly sit/start decisions and gives you an idea for the accuracy of their widget.

Monday, August 22, 2011

Keeper Declaration Day: The 2011 Post-Keeper Pre-Draft Draft Order Sheet

All of the keeper selections have been made and reported. Thank you for your cooperation in notifying the League Commissioner in a timely manner.

In the chart below I have indicated a players prior consecutive years as a keeper with Y's in the far right column. The amount of times a player has been kept in consecutive years is the same number of Y's indicated. For instance, a keeper with YYY has been kept three times or three years in a row to be more precise. All 1st Rd value keepers, whether listed in the 1st Rd or 2d Rd etc. are also indicated next to the Y. There may also be instances whereby a 2d Rd value is noted for players a team. These notes are helpful for the following years. For example, this year R Johnson's Simba's Buttkicker!'s kept two 1st Rd keepers and one 2d Rd keeper. I listed a couple of 1st rounders in the 3d Rd with notation. In the far right column you will see the overall draft pick number for the empty picks. As you should be able to see there are only 111 picks in the upcoming draft now that keepers have been declared.

I will double check all the keeper value info tomorrow. If you see any errors please let me or the League Commissioner know promptly for correction. Thanks.

I am waiting for M Mohler's answer on the order of M Colston WR and K Moreno RB. Since they are both 3d Rd keepers one needs to be determined as a 2d Rd keeper. Right now K Moreno is temporarily listed as a 2d Rd keeper. I will confirm or modify it when I am notified. Confirmed.

Now for your viewing pleasure, the updated 2011 Brothers Keeper Post-Keeper Pre-Draft Draft Order Sheet with keepers:

I will email the league the document. It also can be accessed online and downloaded.

Please be sure to note the draft date, time and location. Make plans to be there and partake in the fun! Stay tuned to the league message board too. I'm sure more final details will be there concerning any possible food arrangements.

Thursday, August 4, 2011

Key Dates: 2011 Brothers Keeper 5 Keeper Declaration Deadline and Draft

Keeper Declaration Day: To Keeper or Not to Keeper?
Okay. We are a keeper lague so maybe it should be titled, "To Keep or Not to Keep?" According to the league Commissioner (M Peltonen) and no one's objection, the 2011 Brothers Keeper 5 Fantasy Football Keeper Declaration Deadline is Sunday August 21st, 2011 at 11:59 PM CST (cf. Section II.D.). Please notify the League Commissioner M Peltonen via email, phone, or verbally in person... or on a wadded up piece of paper written in secret ink... whatever works for you please just do it. Please do this as soon as possible. He prefers that the keepers be declared before August 19th as he will be busy on the 19th. But if you must wait till the 21st you have it. So think of Thursday August 18th as the soft deadline and Sunday the 21st as the hard deadline.

Before keepers are declared we had to finalize the team transfer opportunity as a result of the exit of J Fullerton from the league. M Mohler is now the proud owner of the team formerly known as Kabuki Strikes Back. He has named his team Forever Tide and owns the final roster of Kabuki Strikes Back.

Also if you, too, do not wish to continue playing in the Brothers Keeper Fantasy Football League please contact the League Commissioner as soon as possible in order for Brothers Keeper to arrange a replacement player/owner. There are a number of things that the remaining league owners will need to decide before a replacement is offered to a current final roster as their team (see Section IV.Team Transfers). Please be diligent toward the other Brothers Keeper owners in this regard. The last thing we would like to see is a time sensitive issue disrupt normative league activities like keeper declaration deadlines and drafts. Your cooperation will be greatly appreciated and go a long way toward your consideration for a later re-entry into the Brothers Keeper Fantasy Football League if such a need were to arise once older players die off or other players exit. We already have one owner exiting the league and have conduct to fulfill in a time sensitive manner. So please be diligent when the commissioner calls upon you for an answer.

If you would like to review the II. KEEPER DRAFT RULE please consult The Canons of Brothers Keeper Fantasy Football League.

Be sure to take a look at your team's "Looking Ahead 2011" post to see your team's final rosters from 2010. From there you will be able to see each player's 2010 total fantasy starts, fantasy points, 2011 developmental eligibility, and 2011 keeper value. For instance, an undrafted player on your final roster is worth a 15th round draft pick if retained. More information can be gathered there. If you see an error, please contact me so I can check into it and update your team's post to be more accurate. I plan to double check every team's final rosters and keeper values shortly.

Looking Ahead 2011: CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS
Looking Ahead 2011: Kabuki Strikes Back
Looking Ahead 2011: Simba's Buttkicker!
Looking Ahead 2011: Points ON the Bench
Looking Ahead 2011: Rmmm's Dropping 3's/Redmans CatClippers
Looking Ahead 2011: SOCIAL ISoTopes
Looking Ahead 2011: Ghost
Looking Ahead 2011: Yankinfowlsandfeline
Looking Ahead 2011: TheSloppyButts
Looking Ahead 2011: Yer X-MOM

Draft Day 2011: Be There!
The 2011 Brothers Keeper 5 Fantasy Football Draft will be held on Saturday August 27th at 5:00 PM CST.

The draft will be held at Grace Memorial Baptist Church (58516 Pearl Acres Road, Slidell, LA 70461-5422) in the [TBD] room.

View Larger Map

Let's face it. We all know late August or early September is fantasy football draft season. We don't need to be embarassed or bashful about it because it is fun. Clear your schedules and just know you need to cancel plans for the draft times. No one likes to draft for you or follow some instructions on a cryptic cheatsheet we can't understand. We'd love to meet you face to face and hope you can join in the fun and maybe we'll eat some food while we're at it. Throw in a few quips about whether R Johnson will make the playoffs and how he plans to fail again and we'll get a rest from our struggles and minial daily lives and have some guy time. What's a tank of gas and a Saturday evening of hanging out with the guys worth to you? Please don't make us pull a Childress and send your 3 closest leaguemates to your Mississippi living room and ask you for a personal favor to attend the draft. We're not beggars. Just because you're from Mississippi doesn't mean you have to be like other Mississippians. O wait that was Brett Favre. Sorry. Don't make us drag you from your home or else we'll call you Brett Favre. Just be there and have fun okay and don't apologize about it. No one will question your love of family for participating in your favorite hobby. You'll be glad you did. We all need some man time with men without kids or ladies. We can scratch and tell stories we can't tell with female types around. So be there. I'm done my plea bargaining and now it is your turn to show up in person.

Following the new 3 Factor Power Ranking Draft Order rule, here is the complete draft order for your viewing pleasure utlizing the current team names:

1. Simba's Buttkicker! (R Johnson)
3. Points ON the Bench (D Kessler)
4. Forever Tide (M Mohler)
5. Ghost (B Garner)
6. Rmmm's Golden Eagle (D Pilcher)
7. SOCIAL ISoTopes (M Peltonen)
8. Yankinfowlsandfeline (J Smith)
9. TheSloppyButts (M R Smith)
10. Yer X-MOM (P Smith)

Wednesday, August 3, 2011

The First Ownerless Team Transfer in Brothers Keeper

According to the Commissioner's post, J Fullerton (Kabuki Strikes Back) has left Brothers Keeper after four solid years of play. We wish him well in his pursuits and are thankful for his early notice to exit the league on charitable terms. As a result, this will be our league's first exercise in Rule IV. Team Transfers as recorded in The Canons of Brothers Keeper Fantasy Football. Here was the league's Commissioner's announcement:
Now due to Kabooki dropping out, we are going to offer his team up for grabs in the same order as the draft, If you change your team, you will also change your draft position. If someone changes there team with Kabooki's, then that person's team will be offered in the same order. and so on.
According to the new draft order, this is the following draft order for the upcoming 2011 Brothers Keeper Draft:

1. Simba's Buttkicker! (R Johnson)
3. Points ON the Bench (D Kessler)
4. Kabuki Strikes Back (formerly owned by J Fullerton)
5. Ghost (B Garner)
6. Redman's CatClippers (D Pilcher)
7. SOCIAL ISoTopes (M Peltonen)
8. Yankinfowlsandfeline (J Smith)
9. TheSloppyButts (M R Smith)
10. Yer X-MOM (P Smith)

If all teams decide to not forfeit their rostered team then the unowned team will be issued to M Mohler. But before we can do that we need to sequentially ask if each owner wants to give up their roster for the unowned roster from Kabuki Strikes Back.

The first person offered the team was R Johnson who has declined to forfeit his rostered team stating so in no uncertain terms:
I don't want the team. The team is not my style. They are not butt kickers. They are not potential winners. They are old. They are washed up. They are rejects. They are meant for the music man. The newcomer needs to take on the challenge to initiate his adds and drops and draft skills. Any newcomer like M [Mohler], that comes in, will change who he wants to clean house of the washed up bums that are on that stinking team. He'll improve it because he has demonstrated his skills in the competition of the baseball and golf leagues. So, I know he'll make it a better team with some work. Me.....if I take it, will only add more sorrow to my saga to the football legacy to rebuild another team. I have proved to all of you that my football team sucks and trying to build it to a better team is a better chance for me to pick first this year, not fifth.
R Johnson does not desire the roster and draft position of the team formerly known as Kabuki Strikes Back.
Next up, R C Smith. Next up D Kessler. Next up B Garner. Next up D Pilcher. Next up M Peltonen.

Next up, J Smith. We are awaiting your response. Please decide for yourself if you want to forfeit your team and take on the roster available. Then notify the league via the league message board or the Commissioner directly. I will make note of it on this post when you respond and move on tot he next step.

According to M Peltonen M Mohler will be offered the last league rejected ownerless roster team. It is recommended for the new owner to read The Canons of Brothers Keeper Fantasy Football League in it's entirety to familiarize himself with the rules governing league play. It is also recommended that one consider all the issues surrounding the take over of a previous team in a keeper league by reading Football Guys's article on the matter. There may also be other items worth investigating as well.

The league commissioner then welcomed the new league participant. "As commish I would like to be the first to Welcome M [Mohler] into the league. He is a very active fantasy player in many of our other leagues so I know you all will be happy with this addition."

I will post updates as I receive them on this entry:
UPDATE 1: R C Smith declined to take ownerless team saying, " PASS! Sorry!"
D Kessler is up.
UPDATE 2: D Kessler has declined to take the ownerless team according to the League Commissioner. B Garner is up.
UPDATE 3: B Garner has declined to take the ownerless team according to the League Commissioner. D Pilcher is up.
Update 4 D Pilcher and M Peltonen both declined to take the ownerless team according to the League Commissioner. J Smith is up.
Update 5 J Smith declined to take the ownerless team according to the League Commissioner. M R Smith notified me via IM that he declined to take over the ownerless team too. P Smith also rejects the ownerless team.

The team is now awarded to M Mohler.

Tuesday, August 2, 2011

Looking Ahead 2011: Yer X-MOM

This is the final "Looking Ahead 2011" post of the series of ten blogs covering each team from the 2010 Brothers Keeper 4 league year in detail. We began with the last place team and have moved up to the top of the league standings as it stood at the end of the 2010 fantasy football season (cf. CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS; Kabuki Strikes Back; Simba's Buttkicker!; Points ON the Bench; Rmmm's Dropping 3's; SOCIAL ISoTopes; Ghost; Yankinfowlsandfeline; and TheSloppyButts). This post will present our 2010 1st Place, Gold Medalist Trophy Winner and 2 time reigning Brothers Keeper Champion, Yer X-MOM (P Smith).

"Trophy" #2: P Smith's Son

Overview of P Smith's Brothers Keeper History
2007 Yer X-MOM: 10-4-0 (4th Place) 1665.13 points; 38 transactions
2008 Yer X-MOM: 9-4-0 (4th Place) 1678.86 points; 41 transactions
2009 Yer X-MOM: 8-5-0 (1st Place) 1492.55 points; 39 transactions
2010 Yer X-MOM: 8-5-0 (1st Place) 1633.19 points; 34 transactions

Yer X-MOM's 2010 Keeper Declaration
The day came and P Smith had to drop great 2010 talents from his 2009 final roster. Notables include P Rivers QB (Rd 2 value), S Holmes WR (Rd 8 value), J Witten TE (Rd 9 value), H Nicks WR (Rd 15 value), J Maclin WR (Rd 15 value), and J Finley TE (Rd 15 value). Those all performed at an extremely high level of talent. Seeing them all disappear in the draft by other teams is no easy matter. One that could have been retained that would have benefited Yer X-MOM the most would have been the QB P Rivers as P Smith seems to annually struggle with the QB position. Instead of keeping S Jackson RB (Rd 1) he could have had P Rivers QB instead.

Regardless of whether or not he should have kept P Rivers QB for S Jackson RB, retaining C Johnson RB (Rd 14), A Johnson WR (Rd 3), and R Mendenhall RB (Rd 11) proved effective alongside a stellar draft. It is hard to argue for keeping any of the other WRs or TEs as good as they were from Yer X-MOM's final roster since all of the players kept were producing at high levels.

Yer X-MOM's 2010 Draft
Following the old Keeper League Draft Order, Yer X-MOM (P Smith) had the 10th overall draft pick position in the 2010 draft due to his 2009 Brothers Keeper Championship victory over M Peltonen's Sea Buzzards. His 2010 draft results are thus (noting those who were kept from his 2009 final roster with a This player is a keeper.):

1.(10)Steven Jackson This player is a keeper. (StL - RB)
2.(11)Antonio Gates (SD - TE)
3.(30)Andre Johnson This player is a keeper. (Hou - WR)
4.(31)Hines Ward (Pit - WR)
5.(50)Arian Foster (Hou - RB)
6.(51)Kevin Kolb (Phi - QB)
7.(70)Eddie Royal (Den - WR)
8.(71)Mike Wallace (Pit - WR)
9.(90)Donovan McNabb (Was - QB)
10.(91)Zach Miller (Oak - TE)
11.(110)Rashard Mendenhall This player is a keeper. (Pit - RB)
12.(111)Stephen Gostkowski (NE - K)
13.(130)Darren Sproles (SD - RB)
14.(131)Chris Johnson This player is a keeper. (Ten - RB)
15.(150)Miami (Mia - DEF)

Here's Yer X-MOM's 2010 draft compared to the 2010 Brothers Keeper Fantasy Football Ideal Draft Value Chart results:

So what happened? Well, Yer X-MOM's keepers performed admirably. S Jackson RB wasn't quite a 1st Rd pick, but 14 FP off the pace of perfect market efficiency is less than 1 FP low per week. A Johnson WR was injured part of the season and yet still was perfectly kept for the 3d Rd value he was at. R Mendenhall RB and C Johnson RB both easily exceeded their Ideal Draft Value Chart selection as keepers and it rewarded Yer X-MOM handsomely as did TheSloppyButts's late Rd keepers.

As for drafting, most might not have selected an older TE in A Gates in the 2d Rd of a fantasy draft. However, prior to his injury he was on pace to perform above the Ideal Draft Value Chart thanks in large part due to V Jackson's WR hold out and subsequent team suspension. With one superstar target not playing another one had to help pick up the slack and that was A Gates TE.

H Ward WR appears to be the worst pick. He's dropped off the seen in Pittsburgh as his age is beginning to show. Plus the emergence of faster and younger WRs has diminished his targets.

K Kolb QB lost his job as the starter after a week 1 concussion and there really is no telling what his FP total would have been under a perfectly healthy non-M Vick backup QB year with the talent that Philadelphia had catching the ball. Even B Celek TE was injured so it would be tough to guess what K Kolb would have done. The question becomes, would he have been a top 10 or top 12 QB in fantasy production? If so, then he would have come close to his draft pick position but not gone over the Ideal Draft Value Chart line. He basically would have needed to perform just a wee bit better than QB M Schaub to be worth his 6th Rd selection. I doubt he could have. M Vick did though. So maybe the potential was there but I remain a doubter. He was selected too early and also was the recipient of a bad break.

While E Royal WR had a good week here or there, it was a strange year seeing B Lloyd come from nowhere to perform out of his mind in Denver. With that said, E Royal is the one under consideration, not Lloyd and Royal didn't pan out as a 7th Rd pick. He remains in Denver and with a new head coach it will be interesting to see if he can re-emerge as a go to possession receiver.

D McNabb QB was on a new team and was benched to the likes of R Grossman was utterly embarrassing for the veteran following on the heels of being outed from Philadelphia by M Vick and K Kolb. Selecting K Kolb and D McNabb was an acceptable gamble before the draft but hind sight is 20/20 and doesn't seem so now. There were no waiver wire saviors like K Warner was in 2008 for Yer X-MOM in 2010. D McNabb was learning a new offense and didn't have the confidence of Mike Shanahan either. When you're getting benched for R Grossman you know something is wrong and it is going down in flames along with the fantasy owners who were depending on you to be a late draft steal.

The last pick under the Ideal Draft Value Chart level was the injured kicker from New England, S Gostkowski. He has usually been a consistent kicker and burning a late pick on a kicker is par for the course anyhow.

Meanwhile A Foster RB was drafted in the 5th round and made up for anything lacking by the other draft picks. He singlehandedly outperformed everyone in FPOB. His true value was the first pick of the first round of the draft. A huge steal as a 5th Rd selection he will have incredible value going forward.

M Wallace was great as an 8th Rd selection too. He appears to be supplanting H Ward WR in Pittsburgh thanks in larg part to his speed and reception percentages further down field.

Z Miller TE (Oak), D Sproles RB, and the Miami Defense were drafted pretty much on target and exceeded their Ideal Draft Value Chart slightly. No big gains there.

Overall, while a few did not work out A Foster pretty much saved the draft from being just average.

2010 End of Season Commentary
The rematch of the 2009 Brothers Keeper 3 Championship game between Yer X-MOM versus the Sea Buzzards didn't take long to replay. In week 1, feeling an illogical sense of the future of Yer X-MOM, M Peltonen said before kickoff "you are due for a beating... might not be from me... but you are due." The early banter between opponents caused P Smith to state, "I'm beginning to detect a strong anti-Yer X-MOM sentiment around here. Am I wrong?" Well the NFL kicked off and the rematch of the 2009 NFC Championship game between the NO Saints and the MN Vikings was a good prelude to the aftermath of Week 1's fantasy matchup. The Champions won decisively. Yer X-MOM was out to an early lead while Sea Buzzards climbed back following a strong performance by T Romo QB (18.28 FP) and A Miles WR (23.30 FP (which begs the question: should a WR outscore his QB in fantasy?). Unfortunately they were unable to counter the monster breakout game of A Foster RB (42.45 FP) and the expected dominance of C Johnson RB (30.60 FP). Earlier in the week Yer X-MOM tried to seal his win by picking up the Raider's free agent D McFadden RB from free agency since Sea Buzzards had the injured M Bush RB on his roster. McFadden RB scored 24.25 FP in week 1. Perhaps a profitable move to block a fantasy opponent. The final score, 139.84 - 100.23 in favor of Yer X-MOM. In week 2 Yer X-MOM won in the same vein as week 1: 137.19 - 94.59 over Points ON the Bench. He looked unstoppable.

Then it happened. Yer X-MOM suffered a 3 game losing streak during weeks 3-5. Two of the games saw him score over 120 FP and still suffer a loss to TheSloppyButts and Kabuki Strikes Back. In week 5 Yer X-MOM scored under 115 FP for the only time the whole season. It was to the 2010 Brothers Keeper Toilet Bowl trophy winner CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS. A deal had to be done and it was with Ghost. Yer X-MOM sent D McFadden RB to Ghost in exchange for M Ryan QB as soon as he saw D McFadden was injured. Ghost was unable to utilize D McFadden right way as a result and therefore took him a little while to pick up a win again. But we've already taken note of this trade on Ghost's Looking Ahead entry.

Yer X-MOM then went on a two game win streak before losing again in week 8. It was Ghost's revenge! He outscored Yer X-MOM 132.90 - 143.99. There wasn't anything more Yer X-MOM could have done to outscore Ghost. After week 8 Yer X-MOM sat with a .500 record (4 - 4). Despite being a dominant team in the total FP category Yer X-MOM played guys who gave each game their all. In fact, Yer X-MOM had the 3d toughest regular season fantasy football schedule in 2010. After two more weeks of fantasy play Yer X-MOM was still stuck at a .500 winning pct having beaten Simba's Buttkicker! (123.35 - 87.43) and losing to SOCIAL ISoTopes (128.19 - 140.17) in the week 1 revenge match. Yer X-MOM benched D Bowe WR (34.3 FP) in favor of H Ward WR (0 FP). A few others also could have made up the difference but a loss is a loss and Yer X-MOM moved on to a 6 game winning streak to bring home his second consecutive Brothers Keeper Championship trophy. But it doesn't seem like he should have won so easily.

In week 8 A Gates TE was dominating the fantasy football world despite a lingering perennial plantar fasciitis problem. He didn't play but two more games the rest of the year (weeks 12 and 13). Yer X-MOM scoured the waiver wire for a replacement. Guys like M Lewis, T Moeaki, J Gresham, T Heap, and a recovered O Daniels were used to fill in for Gates. It was a weakness he turned into 9.38 FP per week average. Not bad but not terrible either. The compensation for the loss was effective. Especially in the Championship game against TheSloppyButts when O Daniels scored 17.65 FP. However, this was not the only problem Yer X-MOM faced.

While the trade may have been helpful to acquire M Ryan to fill the QB role to replace D McNabb, M Ryan actually performed bad in fantasy terms. After Atlanta's week 8 bye, M Ryan only had three games where he scored more than 16 FP. That is five sub 16 FP games from week 9 - 16. You cannot win a fantasy championship with a weak QB unless your team is great or you make moves to compensate. Well it wasn't until a few D McNabb spot starts that helped either. In week 8 McNabb was started during M Ryan's bye week and only scored 16.9 FP. McNabb was also started in week 12 and scored a meager 13.14 FP. McNabb wasn't the solution in Washington either and the rest of the regular season was used by Shanahan to give the backup QBs a tryout. Yer X-MOM had to figure something out. In week 15's semifinal matchup against the top seeded playoff team Yankinfowlsandfeline Yer X-MOM almost caught a break. Yankinfowlsandfeline had two studly fantasy point producing QBs being benched due to injuries. K Orton and A Rodgers were both unable to play the same week. Yer X-MOM debated long and hard about trying to pick up T Tebow but decided against it because he had no one to drop. But Yankinfowlsandfeline did pick him up and Tebow (25.32 FP) outscored Yer X-MOM's M Ryan (23.56 FP) by 1.76 FP. In fact, Yer X-MOM picked up K Collins as insurance if the lack luster M Ryan wasn't going to do it in the final decision. Then in week 16 for the championship game, Yer X-MOM picked up and started... wait for it... David Garrard! Garrard scored 24.86 FP. J Flacco was started by TheSloppyButts and only scored 15.68 FP.

But that isn't the only problem he had! He also had WRs flake out on him due to minor injuries (A Johnson and D Bowe!). How in the world then did he get around that? Well in week 14 Yer X-MOM picked up Derrick Mason... that ancient as dust possession WR in Baltimore. He just happened to score 21.9 FP that week. Mike Williams WR (TB) was started in week 15 and scored 16.8 FP. And in week 16 Yer X-MOM took a stab at Deion "do nothing in Seattle" Branch who was back in New England. Well, that one didn't work out since he only scored 3.25 FP while D Bowe on the bench scored 19.65 FP but he still beat TheSloppyButts despite the mistake no thanks to David Garrard!

When a fantasy owner gets crazy in his creativity for accumulating TEs, WRs, and QBs to go on a 6 game winning streak to win the championship you have to begin to start to wonder if your eyes really see what they see. So you rub your eyes and squint and blink but the same results are before them. I mean, who picks up the Deion Branch's and David Garrard's of this world just for the championship game and wins? There is no rhyme or reason why but it happened and thus Yer X-MOM's 6 game winning streak to end the season and win the championship may be one of the most storied championship runs you'll ever see.That's why we review our league's history. That's why we look back before looking ahead.

After all was said and done Yer X-MOM is Brothers Keeper's first back to back, repeat champion and first to win more than one championship in the league's history. After losing twice in the semifinals he has won two consecutive championships. So here is P Smith's Yer X-MOM's hard earned and storied 2010 Brothers Keeper Golden 1st Place Championship Trophy:

That Makes Two. Is that a mold of D Garrard?

Yer X-MOM's Final 2010 Roster
I have included the upcoming 2011 draft round and pick number (overall pick is in parentheses) of each player on Yer X-MOM's final roster followed by the name of the player, player's position, any 1st Rd Keeper Value players, total # of fantasy starts for the season (a * indicates developmental eligibility for 2011's draft; some players were on more than one team but their total starts for all teams is listed); and total fantasy points scored by the player for the 16 fantasy week season (which is not subject to the # of starts):

1. (10) Steven Jackson RB (1st Rd Keeper Value); 8 fantasy starts; 223.25 fp
2. (11) Andre Johnson WR; 14 fantasy starts; 195.8 fp
2. (11) Antonio Gates TE; 10 fantasy starts; 149.1 fp
3. (30)
4. (31)
5. (50) Arian Foster RB; 12 fantasy starts; 361.8 fp
6. (51) Dwayne Bowe WR; 7 fantasy starts (1 with Redman's CatClippers and 6 with Yer X-MOM); 220.5 fp
6. (51) Owen Daniels WR; 8 fantasy starts (6 with CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS and 2 with Yer X-MOM); 73.55 fp
7. (70)
8. (71) Mike Wallace WR; 0* fantasy starts; 186.75 fp
9. (90)
10. (91) Rashard Mendenhall RB; 12 fantasy starts; 232.65 fp
10. (91) NY Jets DEF; 7 fantasy starts (6 with Yankinfowlsandfeline and 1 with Yer X-MOM); 146 fp
11. (110)
12. (111) David Akers K; 14 fantasy starts (7 with Ghost and 7 with Yer X-MOM); 148 fp
13. (130) Chris Johnson RB; 13 fantasy starts; 260.65 fp
13. (130) Matt Ryan QB; 7 fantasy starts; 316.4 fp
14. (131)
15. (150) Mike Williams WR (TB); 3* fantasy starts; 175.2 fp (Undrafted)
15. (150) Deion Branch WR; 2* fantasy starts (1 with Redman's CatClippers and 1 with Yer X-MOM); 135.9 fp (Undrafted)
15. (150) David Garrard QB; 1* fantasy starts; 274.26 fp (Undrafted)

Looking Ahead at 2011
There are four solid RBs to consider. Obviously C Johnson and A Foster are more superior than R Mendenhall and S Jackson. That isn't to say that R Mendenhall and S Jackson aren't worth keeping. If they were on a lesser talented team they would be considered for sure. R Mendenhall has better value as a 10th Rd pick than S Jackson but S Jackson is no slouch either. In fact he is hoping to get the ball more this season.

A Johnson, D Bowe, M Wallace, and M Williams (TB) are viable keeper candidates at WR. M Wallace and M Williams are developmental eligible. With such a strong performance by D Bowe in 2010 it would be difficult to see his 6th Rd keeper value go to waste. A Johnson is a 2d Rd keeper value this year and is finally close to where he should be valued. However he has just suffered a dislocated finger. Yer X-MOM has had him since the inaugural Brothers Keeper 2007 draft (originally a 5th round draft pick). He has been productive and helpful to Yer X-MOM all throughout his prime. He will need to be healthy all season long in 2011 if he is to be worth a 2d Rd draft pick... and so will his QB M Schaub. With K Walter and O Daniels also reliable targets in Houston, and a solid running game lead by A Foster, defenses will have to defend A Johnson honestly and not double team him to death. He looks like a great keeper candidate as he has been for the past 4 years.

D Bowe has had an interesting history by the owners of Brothers Keeper teams. He is often drafted at a good value but not kept. He also is very hot and cold. Some early preseason projections have him doing well in 2011. With S Breaston WR now in KC, D Bowe should see less double coverage than in previous years. It may take a few games for him to get his engine going but should be all right again in 2011. He will be under a new offensive coordinator in Kansas City however. But with another year under his belt with M Cassel the chemistry should be stable for future growth.

Will M Ryan become an elite QB in 2011? With another year under his belt and having gone deep into the NFC playoffs he will be looking to make the charge toward the Super Bowl in 2011. Atlanta has a great WR in Roddy White and traded most of it's 2011 draft picks to move up and draft another promising WR in Julio Jones. It mimics the offense of the Colts with Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne. Without WRs who can run great routes and catch the ball consistently no Peyton Manning that we know of would have existed.

At TE A Gates would normally be considered but he is as of now on the PUP list.

Will M Williams avoid a sophomore slump? Many prognosticators believe so. He has incredible value for a 15th Rd pick and will be a great value if kept for multiple years. He is on an up and coming team in Tampa Bay with J Freeman as his QB and the more that team sticks together the more their future is going to produce greater results consistently. It would not be a bad investment to maintain M Williams with the stable coaching and roster in Tampa Bay. Plus there is no super dominant RB that will be the center of all offensive activity.

The other developmental WR is M Wallace in Pittsburgh. He doesn't have as god a keeper value as M Williams does in the 15th Rd but an 8th Rd draft pick to retain him is not a high price to pay.

My Best Guess at Yer X-MOM's 2011 Keepers
Quite frankly it is a toss up as to who to keep and it is still too early to say who will be retained. A Foster RB (Rd 5) and C Johnson RB (Rd 13) seem to be locks. Beyond that it is murky as to which developmental eligible WR will be kept: either M Wallace WR (Rd 8) or M Williams WR (Rd 15). That puts Yer X-MOM at 2 RBs and 1 WR. The final keeper spot could go to S Jackson RB (Rd 1), A Johnson WR (Rd 2), A Gates TE (Rd 2), D Bowe WR (Rd 6), R Mendenhall RB (Rd 10), or M Ryan QB (Rd 13). Any one of those guys seem like legitimate keepers.

Brothers Keeper Third Party Consultant's Best Guess at Yer X-MOM's 2011 Keepers
"I would keep Andre Johnson best WR in the league, Chris Johnson especially now that he has a QB that can throw the ball, Arian Foster and Mike Wallace. I choose Wallace over Mike Williams just because I think he's going to be a bigger part of the Pittsburgh offense this year. He was great last year and he didn't have Ben for 4 weeks. I also like AJ over Bowe even though Bowe is younger. His catch to TD rate was insane and isn't going to hold up this year. I think he's still a 200 point a year player but AJ is in the 250 range. He played with a sprained ankle most of last year and still managed to score almost 200 points. If you like to take risks you could always free up AJ and keep Bowe and try to redraft him as your 1st pick to get the better value out of the Bowe pick in the later rounds."