Tuesday, November 15, 2011

An Updated Look at the Standings Going Forward

With an exciting week 10 of Brothers Keeper matchups behind us, the current standings are thus:

Now let's make a few observations about the future. Ghost has clinched the playoffs. He cannot miss the playoffs. He still can and should attempt to maintain one of the top two positions in order to gain a week 14 bye and guarantee an appearance in the semifinals in week 15. With his record of playoff collapses he will need everything he can to help himself succeed at that critical juncture.

With three weeks remaining in the regular season and with five remaining playoff spots yet to be confirmed it is anyone's guess as to what will happen. If we were to assume that all three teams currently at 6 - 4 win one of their next three remaining games, they will be at a minimum of a 7 - 6 record. While this does not guarantee a playoff spot as the four teams with either the 5 - 5 record and 4 - 6 record could also achieve this (although I have not considered the matchups at this point either to see if this were possible), it does put them at a much higher probability of making the playoffs. It would be hard for them to miss the playoffs because they would not only have to lose two games but also be beaten out by total points for the season. So let's skip to the lower probability bunch of teams vying for the 5th and 6th playoff seeds. That's where the action is and where the more important fight is on, namely, to enter the playoffs or be disgraced.

Rmmm's Golden Eagle and Forever Tide currently sit in those 5th and 6th playoff seed positions. In order to give them the best chance to make the playoffs they need to win their next three games giving them an 8 - 5 record. Obviously. Does this seem likely? Let's take a look at their upcoming matchups.

Rmmm Golden Eagle's remaining matchups are against ThePunchin Munchkins, Yer X-MOM, and Yankinfowlsandfeline. On first appearance this looks to be one easy matchup, one neutral matchup, and one difficult matchup. ThePunchin Munchkins can play a spoiler role for Rmmm's Golden Eagle in week 11. Yer X-MOM is just as tough as Rmmm's Golden Eagle and is playing for a playoff spot of his own. Then Rmmm's Golden Eagle plays a difficult final game of the regular season against Yankinfowlsandfeline. Rmmm's Golden Eagle's chance at the playoffs is probably right about 50%. The game with Yer X-MOM will be the most crucial but week 11 against ThePunchin Munchkins is no gimme either since a number of important players on Rmmm's Golden Eagle will be on their bye. Regardless, Rmmm's Golden Eagle probably has the best chance to keep the 5th playoff seed spot he currently resides in.

Forever Tide's remaining games are against Ghost, MOTHERSHIP RUSH, and Points ON the Bench. Forever Tide has one difficult matchup and two opponents he is more evenly matched with. The key to Forever Tide's success as a fantasy team is his two main RBs. Unfortunately, both R Mathews RB and S Jackson RB each have two very difficult run defenses to play against on week 11 and week 13. Forever Tide will need to focus on winning week 12 against MOTHERSHIP RUSH to give himself the best chance to at least be in mix for the 6th playoff seed going into week 13. Otherwise losing three games may seal his fate if Yer X-MOM wins one game. Points ON the Bench could very well be this rookie's spoiler at a playoff berth come week 13.

What about Yer X-MOM and Simba's Buttkicker!? Do they have a legitimate shot at making the playoffs while currently at 4 - 6? In theory they would need to win at least two of their next three games and have one or both of the 5 - 5 teams lose two of their next three games, just to tie them in wins. Obviously then it comes down to total points thereafter for any ties. But let's look at their schedules for clarity.

Yer X-MOM will play Yankinfowlsandfeline, Rmmm's Golden Eagle, and TheSloppyButts. From a pure total fantasy point perspective Yer X-MOM has the hardest remaining schedule of the four teams competing for the 5th and 6th playoff spots. Plus, Yer X-MOM has A Foster RB, B Roethlisberger QB, M Wallace WR, and R Mendenhall RB on a bye in week 11. That is one unlucky bye week disadvantage. The odds for Yer X-MOM making the playoffs may be better than Simba's Buttkicker! but definitely not as good as Rmmm's Golden Eagle and Forever Tide. He will definitely need to take it one game at a time and hope for the best case scenario. It will come down to the depth of his bench players covering the week 11 byes.

Simba's Buttkicker! is scheduled to compete against TheSloppyButts, Ghost, and MOTHERSHIP RUSH. Simba's Buttkicker! by far has the most difficult road to attain the playoffs on account of three things. First, he has the league's worst total fantasy points scored. Second, he plays two of the top three fantasy point scorers in the league this year. His "easiest" opponent will be MOTHERSHIP RUSH who has outscored Simba's Buttkicker! by 75.95 points this season, a mere 7.595 FP per game. The third factor that will be detrimental to Simba's Buttkicker's downfall is the potential season ending Lisfranc injury to QB Matt Schaub.

So who will play this year's spoiler? Who will hold on to their playoff spot? Who will catch the winds of chance and make the improbable happen? We shall see as it continues. So play hard till the end. There's no fat lady within sight yet.

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