Tuesday, June 28, 2011

Looking Ahead 2011: Rmmm's Dropping 3's (a.k.a. Redmans CatClippers)

This is the fifth post of a series of blogs covering each team from the 2010 Brothers Keeper league in detail. We began with the last place team and are moving up to the top of the league standings as it stood at the end of the 2010 fantasy football season (cf. CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS; Kabuki Strikes Back; Simba's Buttkicker!; and Points ON the Bench). Next up, the team called Redmans CatClippers until a very late season change to Rmmm's Dropping 3's (D Pilcher).

Don't let the hat or the cake color fool you. He's red through and through.

Overview of D Pilcher's Brothers Keeper History
2007 RedMans Warriors: 10-4-0 (7th Place) 1795.57 points; 39 transactions
2008 RedMans CatChuckers: 7-6-0 (6th Place) 1303.53 points; 33 transactions
2009 Redmans CatPunters: 6-7-0 (6th Place) 1494.79 points; 14 transactions
2010 Rmmm's Dropping 3's/Redmans CatClippers: 8-5-0 (6th Place) 1451.1 points; 24 transactions

Redmans CatClippers's 2010 Keeper Declaration
No one envies having to toss talent back into the pool of draftable players. According to the 2010 Brothers Keeper Keeper Declaration D Pilcher tossed aside players like P Thomas RB 3d Rd, E Manning QB 5th Rd (developmental), F Jackson RB 9th Rd, D Driver WR 10th Rd, and worst of all L McCoy RB 11th Rd. Can one honestly believe keeping M Bell RB, Denver's perennial throw away RB turned mall vendor, over and above the Superbowl Champion E Manning QB as his developmental was a good choice? Nope. Neither was letting L McCoy go worth it... especially as an 11th rounder.

But when you keep T Brady QB 1st Rd, R Wayne WR 1st Rd, and M Forte RB 3d Rd, well, as long as they produce they'd be worth it. M Forte did exceed the Ideal Draft Value Chart but R Wayne and T Brady did not. No one could have foreseen that P Manning would struggle so mightily or that R Moss would exit New England's offense or that L McCoy would dominate as such a skinny RB. But that's what happened.

Last year I wrote, "If Redmans CatPunters wants to show up late for the 2010 draft he mind as well keep P Thomas or M Forte. At least he'd hurdle his first three obstacles called draft picks." This actually probably best explains why he kept the three he chose to keep. As you will see, D Pilcher has a dirty little secret.

Rmmm's Dropping 3's 2010 Draft
Following the old Keeper League Draft Order Rule Rmmm's Dropping 3's (D Pilcher) had the 4th overall draft pick position in the 2010 draft due to his 2009 1st Rd playoff loss to R C Smith's CYBOG PIRATE NINJAS and subsequent 5th place game playoff loss to J Smith's Yankinfowlsandfeline. His 2010 draft results are thus (noting those who were kept from his 2009 final roster with a This player is a keeper.):

1.(4)Tom Brady This player is a keeper. (NE - QB)
1.(4)Reggie Wayne This player is a keeper. (Ind - WR)
3.(24)Matt Forte This player is a keeper. (Chi - RB)
4.(37)Jahvid Best (Det - RB)
5.(44)Brent Celek (Phi - TE)
6.(57)Dwayne Bowe (KC - WR)
7.(64)Felix Jones (Dal - RB)
8.(77)Terrell Owens (Cin - WR)
9.(84)Jay Cutler (Chi - QB)
10.(97)Marion Barber (Dal - RB)
11.(104)Pittsburgh (Pit - DEF)
12.(117)Johnny Knox (Chi - WR)
13.(124)Brandon Jacobs (NYG - RB)
14.(137)Adam Vinatieri (Ind - K)
15.(144)Mike Bell This player is a keeper. (Phi - RB)

Here's Redmans CatClippers's 2010 Draft compared to the 2010 Brothers Keeper Fantasy Football Ideal Draft Value Chart results:

As I hinted at above, there's a dirty little secret about D Pilcher's 2010 Brothers Keeper Draft. It wasn't him who drafted his remarkable team. But it was D Pilcher who sank his team. There just is no excuse not to draft your own keeper team and then sink it's chances. But that story will be detailed in the End of Season Commentary. For now, suffice it to say that Pilcher's son-in-law, the venerable Brothers Keeper Fantasy Football League Commissioner, M Peltonen drafted in his father-in-laws place much of the draft. After all, D Pilcher did give permission to the Commissioner to marry his daughter. Well, it was time to pay up some good standing with the father-in-law so M Peltonen being the good son-in-law drafted players he himself wanted for his own team, the SOCIAL ISoTopes. M Peltonen was as prepared as ever last year and it showed. Under normal circumstances D Pilcher probably never would have heard of the rookie from the 2010 NFL Draft J Best RB or perhaps wouldn't recall the name of the TE in Philadelphia who surged late in 2009, B Celek. But according to M Peltonen, "He did like his team though." He's such a good son-in-law.
This is how he drafted in 2010.
Will he draft this way in 2011?

D Pilcher did not have a draft pick until the 4th Rd. When comparing the draft to the Ideal Draft Value Chart we can see that the first couple of selections, J Best and B Celek, actually underperformed. B Celek played with the revolving injury door at QB between K Kolb and M Vick and was thus worse off.

The middle draft rounds had much more success in D Bowe WR, F Jones RB, and T Owens WR. The next pick was J Cutler QB, who could have been a lot closer but probably still below perfect market efficiency if he hadn't missed a game due to injury. M Barber RB wasn't a terrible pick for the 10th Rd as anyone drafted after the 9th Rd would be below replacement level and not a regular starter. He was the insurance for the 7th Rd F Jones RB selection as the handcuff of the Cowboys running game. This was followed up by 3 really tremendous picks in Pittsburgh DEF, J Knox WR, and A Vinatieri K. Considering the previous four teams in the Looking Ahead 2011 series of posts, the combination drafting by M Peltonen and D Pilcher looks much more like a successful draft.

End of Season Commentary
Week 1 was a dominating week that was 2 years in the making. T Brady QB (29.32 FP), R Wayne WR (17.95 FP), M Forte RB (29.55 FP), and J Best RB (19.8 FP) flashed the potential 2010 sleeper candidate's team. It was impressive. Redmans CatClippers was only outscored by one other team to begin the season. Thankfully he played the worst team of week 1 and easily doubled his opponents FP total. D Bowe WR only scored 1.65 FP and was promptly dropped... the move that sunk Redmans boat. Perhaps Redmans CatClippers will be blessed by the Fantasy Fairy this year with a ridiculously easy schedule?

In fact, D Pilcher was blessed by the Fantasy Fairy with the easiest schedule in the league. It was so blessed that it was 100 FP easier than the 2d easiest regular season schedule. In week 2 Redmans CatClippers scored the highest FP total and played the lowest scoring team again. Poor Yankinfowlsandfeline didn't have a chance. However, this 2 week dominance was followed by 2 straight losses. The first loss to Points ON the Bench by 5 FP could have easily been avoided by starting bench players. Week 4's loss to Ghost was unavoidable. By week 3 D Bowe WR was breaking the 10 FP barrier but was on Yer X-MOM's team not Redmans CatClippers.

Feeling enraged Redmans CatClippers clipped Simba's Buttkicker! in half. For the second time in 5 weeks of fantasy play Redmans CatClippers easily doubled his opponent's total FP embarrassing the competition with the second highest FP total of the week. He had foiled two of his nemeses as well. Life was looking good with a 3 - 2 win/loss record.

Then came 2 defeats. In week 6 D Pilcher's son-in-law out maneuvered the old man and won  95.51 - 103.02. Only D Bowe's 23.4 FPs could have saved D Pilcher's hide but he was long gone. In week 7 D Bowe scored 19.05 FP against Redmans CatClippers. Yer X-MOM beat Redmans CatClippers with a player Redmans CatClippers had drafted! Salt in the wound doesn't feel good.

The week 8 opponent should have been warned. TheSloppyButts lost to Redmans CatClippers 89.10 - 81.47. In all fairness, there was nothing TheSloppyButts could have done as his whole bench except for the injured S Rice WR was on a bye. Redmans CatClippers could have scored a few more FP and not made it as close but a win is a win after 2 losses and he took what he could get winning another two weeks after that.

Before week 11's game against Yankinfowlsandfeline, Redmans CatClippers was sitting pretty with a 6 - 4 record. He was solidly producing fantasy points and wins. Now he faced the nemesis he beat in week 2. This time Yankinfowlsandfeline got him with a solid 147.54 - 111.99 win. D Bowe was laughing on Yer X-MOM's team scoring 23.45 FP.

In week 12 Points ON the Bench could have bested Redmans CatClippers by starting M Cassel QB but it wasn't the case. Remdans CatClippers finished the season with a 2 game winning streak and entered the playoffs scoring the highest point total in week 13. He was primed to do damage.

Entering the playoffs hot with the 5th overall seed, an 8 - 5 win/loss record playing the 4th seeded Yer X-MOM with an equal 8 - 5 win/loss record in the quarterfinals looked to be a good matchup. But scratching below the surface, we discover these two teams were different. Yer X-MOM scored 1633.19 total FP in the regular season while Redmans CatClippers scored 1451.10 FP. That is a difference of 182.09 FP. D Bowe WR scored 195.05 FP in the regular season. That is a mere 12.96 FP difference.

But something more haunted D Pilcher. In the previous 3 years of Brothers Keeper league play, he had lost every year in the quarterfinals. Would the 2010 quarterfinals be another loss making it 4 years in a row? Would he be dealt another blow by the very man he drafted but dropped after week 1, D Bowe?

The quarterfinals had been redesigned in the middle of the season. In the previous years of Brothers Keeper history the 5th seeded team played the 4th seeded team in the quarterfinals as it still would happen in 2010 after the change. No rule change was going to change what took place next.

After the Sunday night game was completed, before the Monday night game began, Redmans CatClippers had a commanding lead 129.46 - 77.03. Yer X-MOM was down by 52.43 FP. He started an injured A Gates TE and didn't score any FP for the TE position as a result. The stout defense of the Baltimore Ravens was going to face the Houston Texans on Monday night. Yer X-MOM had D Mason WR, A Johnson WR, and A Foster RB playing. Even if Yer X-MOM had started B Westbrook RB in place of R Mendenhall RB he would have been down 41.93 FP or even 34.29 FP if he had started D McNabb over M Ryan at QB. But as it stood, he was 52.43 FP below a tie.

A Johnson WR scorched the Baltimore secondary scoring 28 FP. A Foster RB ran hard against the tough run defense scoring 15.25 FP. It all came down to the ancient one, D Mason WR. What he did next was just the icing on the cake of his long career. He scored 21.9 FP. It will probably be his last dominate fantasy football performance of his career. Yer X-MOM had just picked him up for that game and dropped him right after the game. Those 3 Monday night players scored a combined 65.15 FP. It was an unbelievable come from behind performance with the odds stacked against Yer X-MOM with A Johnson and A Foster playing against such a formidable defense. The game even went into overtime. With the hometown Ravens victory P Smith was flying high.

Redmans CatClippers lost 142.18 - 129.46 to Yer X-MOM. Surprisingly D Bowe only scored 1.15 FP on the bench of Yer X-MOM. It was a half of a point less than his week 1 effort for Redmans CatClippers the team that drafted him. So this wasn't the reason why he lost. He lost by 12.58 FP. On Redmans CatClippers bench sat two men who could have helped narrow the gap. A Hernandez TE scored 2.95 FP while the player he started, B Celek TE, scored 0 FP. Next, D Brown RB scored 8 FP while M Forte RB scored 6.3 FP. With B Celek and D Brown active Redmans CatClippers would have still lost by 7.93 FP. T Ownes WR was the next irreplaceable offender scoring 2.1 FP. Just a few days beforehand, even Redmans CatClippers could have snagged D Mason WR off of the free agency pool and won.

Rmmm's Dropping 3's Final 2010 Roster
I have included the upcoming 2011 draft round and pick number (overall pick is in parentheses) of each player on Rmmm's Dropping 3's final roster followed by the name of the player, player's position, any 1st Rd Keeper Value players, total # of fantasy starts for the season (a * indicates developmental eligibility for 2011's draft; some players were on more than one team but their total starts for all teams is listed); and total fantasy points scored by the player for the 16 fantasy week season (which is not subject to the # of starts):

1. (6) Tom Brady QB (1st Rd Keeper Value); 13 fantasy starts; 392 fp
1. (6) Reggie Wayne WR (1st Rd Keeper Value); 13 fantasy starts; 212.75 fp
2. (15) Matt Forte RB; 13 fantasy starts; 237.25 fp
3. (26)
4. (35) Jahvid Best RB; 10 fantasy starts; 171.85 fp
5. (46) Brent Celek TE; 6 fantasy starts (4 with Simba's Buttkicker! and 2 with Redmans CatClippers); 91.95 fp
6. (55)
7. (66) Felix Jones RB; 9 fantasy starts; 160.5 fp
8. (75) Terrell Owens WR; 12 fantasy starts; 175.15 fp
9. (86) Jay Cutler QB; 0* fantasy starts; 265.16 fp
10. (95)
11. (106) Pittsburgh DEF; 11 fantasy starts; 183 fp
12. (115) Tim Hightower RB; 5 fantasy starts (1 with CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS and 4 with Redman's CatClippers); 123.4 fp
13. (126)
14. (135) Adam Vinatieri K; 13 fantasy starts; 136 fp
14. (135) Donald Brown RB; 2* fantasy starts (1 with CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS and 1 with Redman's CatClippers); 91.95 fp
15. (146) Denver DEF; 0* fantasy starts; 48 fp (Undrafted)
15. (146) Javarris James RB; 0* fantasy starts; 57.88 fp (Undrafted)
15. (146) Kenneth Darby RB; 0* fantasy starts; 41.75 fp (Undrafted)

Looking Ahead at 2011
Last year I pontificated in this section:
Potential is a funny word. Potential could become squandered. Ask the 30 year old C Palmer QB if his potential has been squandered. I bet he might be furious inside. At least he has the money to show for it. I guess. For Redman's CatPunters I see the potential for squander. T Brady and R Wayne are nearing the end of their peak years of performance. They might be able to keep Redman's CatPunters in 6th place again, you know, just those two alone. ... Because Redmans CatPunters seems so willing to occupy the 6th place spot annually I am going to guess he stays with the two guys who have kept him there the past 3 years in T Brady QB and R Wayne WR.
Falling short in the quarterfinals for a 4th time in a row, and his 3d year in a row 6th place finish definitely puts the Looking Ahead at 2011 section into clear focus. He needs to win a quarterfinal game. Pure and simple. Otherwise the potential his team has will be even more squandered.

So where does D Pilcher need to get that last umph into the semifinals? Well, his team was poised. It was there. He had a lot of fantasy points on the season. In fact, if he had played either of the other quarterfinal teams in 2010 (his son-in-law's SOCIAL ISoTopes or B Garner's Ghost), he would have won. They both scored below his team's effort in week 14. It was a bad playoff seed this year that cursed him. The Fantasy Fairy's ride of an easy schedule was over. D Pilcher just needs to do what he did in 2010: Let the son-in-law draft his team and maybe next time, don't drop D Bowe.

As for his team's final roster, D Pilcher needs to figure out who to keep. This will be a tougher choice than his 2010 choice almost a year ago but it will still be pretty simple too. T Brady QB Rd 1 and R Wayne WR Rd 1 are a year older now though. M Forte RB Rd 2 is still the RB in Chicago. If D Pilcher keeps those 3 players again, no one would think he didn't have a good first three rounds of draft picks in 2011. There's no reason to believe R Wayne could do better in 2011 if all his other WRs are healthy and keeping defenses more honest. T Brady has a slew of shifty white guys who can catch the ball still despite being without R Moss WR potentially. M Forte will still be relied upon with J Cutler at the helm in Chicago.

J Best RB Rd 4 might be a good candidate to consider instead of one of those 3 guys but he will have more competition in the Detroit Lions backfield now that they have drafted RB Mikel Leshoure in the 2011 NFL Draft. Jim Schwartz will likely spread the carries and passes and goal line TDs to his running backs according to their strengths when they are all healthy. Perhaps 40-45 %. From a 2011 draft perspective, keeping J Best instead of T Brady, R Wayne or M Forte frees up a 3d Rd draft pick.

F Jones RB 7th Rd might be a good keeper to consider too but with M Barber RB and T Choice RB the Dallas Cowboy backfield is crowded too.
Can you say, "multitasking"?
Fantasy sports and watching twins.
Can you say, "socks and crocks don't match"?

The player formerly known as T Owens WR appears to be recovering from an offseason ACL injury repair according to recent news reports. After being on 3 different teams in the last 3 years he has been like the walking dead at his ripe old age. He will turn 38 in December. I'm sure he could beat me in any foot race after he recovers from his surgery but 38 is just old for a WR in the NFL and he is no longer worth having as a regular starter. Maybe he pulls a C Ochocinco and becomes a Kicker! If not, he should not be touched with a 49 and a half foot pole despite his agent's claims that he isn't retiring.

From the available developmental keeper choices D Pilcher should only seriously consider J Cutler QB for 2011 who appears to be recovering well from his late injury. I might give a nod to D Brown RB if I knew that J Addai RB was going to be gone but not until I knew for sure. While Cutler has gotten a bad rap, one that in my opinion is incorrect, about being a softy not playing through injuries, J Cutler would be a pretty good backup QB to T Brady. At the very least he could be trade bait to a team in need of a QB too. Giving up a 9th Rd pick to retain Cutler is not just a steal, but also wise to do. Now that J Cutler has been in Chicago a year, maybe his chemistry with J Knox WR, M Forte RB, and others is beginning to solidify into a more effective offensive machine.

My Best Guess at Rmmm's Dropping 3's 2011 Keepers
Yeah it would be fair to say I think D Pilcher will keep T Brady QB, R Wayne WR, M Forte RB, and J Cutler QB as his developmental. He'll stick with the guys he's had lose the quarterfinals every year.

Brothers Keeper Third Party Consultant's Best Guess at Rmmm's Dropping 3's 2011 Keepers
The Comedian Wayne Brady
"I'm going with Brady, Wayne, Forte and Cutler. I really like Wayne Brady as a comedian and as individual players but Forte is kind of a hard choice to make. The guy's a great player when his line plays decent but when his line can't block for him (9 out of 12 games) he sucks. He does catch passes which makes up for the carries he loses cuz of the long second and 3rd downs. I kind of like Felix over him if [the] Cowboys are gonna let him touch the ball 200+ times in limited time. The guy [has] been a stud but injuries and sorry coaching keeps him grounded. I really do think Forte is a solid player but Jones is an elite player if he's a starter. I would wait it out till the last few days to decide between those two if Felix is a starter."

Monday, June 27, 2011

Looking Ahead 2011: Points ON the Bench

This is the fourth post of a series of blogs covering each team from the 2010 Brothers Keeper league in detail. We began with the last place team and are moving up to the top of the league standings as it stood at the end of the 2010 fantasy football season (cf. CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS; Kabuki Strikes Back; and Simba's Buttkicker!). Now it is time to turn our attention to Points ON the Bench (D Kessler).

Good looking family with D Kessler's face mask

Overview of D Kessler's Brothers Keeper History
2007 Junior Asparagus: 4-10-0 (10th Place) 1211.51 points; 8 transactions
2008 PAIN: 9-4-0 (1st Place) 1420.68 points; 14 transactions
2009 Favre$Footlong: 8-5-0 (8th Place) 1247.90 points; 25 transactions
2010 Points ON the Bench: 3-10-0 (7th Place) 1222.65 points; 23 transactions

Points ON the Bench's 2010 Keeper Declaration
D Kessler declared T Gonzalez TE, J Stewart RB, B Marshall WR, and V Shiancoe TE (developmental) as those he wished to retain from his 2009 squad. Due to his limited selection this probably was his best choice other than maybe selecting S Rice WR instead of two TEs as I had guessed. But looking back on it S Rice didn't do so well due to his own injury and B Favre's injury. Rice only played in 6 games in 2010. Points ON the Bench did the best he could have at selecting his keepers after all.

Points ON the Bench's 2010 Draft
Following the old Keeper League Draft Order Rule Points ON the Bench (D Kessler) had the 6th overall draft pick position in the 2010 draft due to his 2009 1st Rd 4 FP playoff loss to R Johnson's Simba's Buttkicker!. His 2010 draft results are thus (noting those who were kept from his 2009 final roster with a This player is a keeper.):

1.(6)Shonn Greene (NYJ - RB)
2.(15)Philip Rivers (SD - QB)
3.(26)Chad Ochocinco (Cin - WR)
4.(35)Tony Gonzalez This player is a keeper. (Atl - TE)
5.(46)Reggie Bush (NO - RB)
6.(55)Jonathan Stewart This player is a keeper. (Car - RB)
7.(66)Brandon Marshall This player is a keeper. (Mia - WR)
8.(75)Pierre Garcon (Ind - WR)
9.(86)Clinton Portis (Was - RB)
10.(95)Matthew Stafford (Det - QB)
11.(106)Mason Crosby (GB - K)
12.(115)Minnesota (Min - DEF)
13.(126)Jacoby Jones (Hou - WR)
14.(135)Cleveland (Cle - DEF)
15.(146)Visanthe Shiancoe This player is a keeper. (Min - TE)

Here's Points ON the Bench's 2010 Draft compared to the 2010 Brothers Keeper Fantasy Football Ideal Draft Value Chart results:

From Here

The draft had a few ups and downs but more downs than ups and the ups weren't ones that exceeded the Ideal Draft Value Chart by much if they did. T Gonzalez was the earliest keeper selection but scored a little under 30 FP below the Ideal Draft Value Chart. J Stewart RB was injured so he too failed to meet his Ideal Draft Value Chart value as a keeper. B Marshall was his best keeper and only underperformed his Ideal Draft pick position by an acceptable 12 FP. That's a little under 1 FP per week. V Shiancoe TE failed to meet his Ideal Draft Value too thanks to B Favre's injury and the hole called the Minnesota Vikings QB. But losing a 15th Rd draft pick would not have been a terrible gamble on V Shiancoe.

S Greene RB didn't do well as a 1st Rd draft pick. He may be worth a 1st Rd pick one day but L Tomlinson is in the way on the NY Jets depth chart. So until then Points ON the Bench will need to be patient and sacrifice at least the 2010 campaign if not the 2011 1st Rd pick as well.

P Rivers QB performed excellent despite losing some quality WRs and a late season injury to A Gates TE. It really was a remarkable statistical year for Rivers who competes hard even when his team is losing. He was Points ON the Bench's only consistent weekly point producer.

With his next two picks in the draft, C Ochocinco WR and R Bush RB, D Kessler bombed. It would be difficult to sustain that many high draft picks producing so far under the Ideal Draft Value Chart levels and expect the results in the win-loss column to be different.

2010 End of Season Commentary
Our worst to first champion has had a slower turn around since winning the big one in 2008. The 8th place finish was bested this year by a 7th place finish. However, while he scored a similar FP total in the regular season of 2010 as he did in 2009, his regular season winning percentage was awful. He went from an 8 - 5 record to a 3 - 10 record in 2010. That is strange. So what was the issue then?

If we take a look at the points scored against Points ON the Bench in 2009, 1223.49 FP were scored. In 2010 there were 1417.66 FP scored against him. It was the 5th hardest regular season schedule in Brothers Keeper in 2010 while scoring the third lowest FP total. The issue was a much more difficult schedule... or it could be that Kessler himself knew what happened, namely, that he started the wrong players: In midseason, Favre$Footlong was renamed Points ON the Bench. In the commentary below I will look at the matter on a week to week basis but would like to eventually follow up with a study on how the league did at sitting and starting fantasy players on a weekly basis along with related elements from the data I have from 2010.

Points ON the Bench only had three regular season wins. His first win came in week 3 against Redman's CatClippers (97.07 - 92.83). His second win came 2 weeks later against Ghost (89.91 - 82.48). Three weeks later in week 8 came his third and final regular season win against CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS (102.59 - 64.90).

Benching C Ochocinco WR (25.95 FP) in favor of S Greene RB (1.25 FP against a stout Baltimore DEF) caused the loss in week 1 for Favre$Footlong. However, if Yankinfowlsandfeline had started H Nicks WR (25.75 FP) instead of P Harvin WR (3.17 FP), the Ochocinco start would have been negated. But Nicks didn't start and only Kessler could decide to sit or start certain players on his roster. He could have won.
In week 2 Favre$Footlong played against Yer X-MOM. Unfortunately when 44% of your starters (4 players) score less than 10 FP on a given week it would be tough to overcome a really strong game by an opponent. Week 2 was a loss straight up at 137.19 - 94.59. The benched players couldn't even have helped him attain a win. But Favre$Footlong's name was changed before week 3 to Points ON the Bench.

It must have been good luck to change the name because as indicated above, week 3 had D Kessler's first win. However, Redmans CatClippers's bench could have beaten Points ON the Bench. In week 4 Points ON the Bench's bench would not have made up the 18 point deficit to TheSloppyButts. In week 5 Points ON the Bench beat Ghost straight up as Ghost had no one on his bench with the ability to make up the 7 FP loss.

In week 6, again, even Points ON the Bench's bench points could not have helped him win. In fact, it is the same story week 7, 9, 10, 11 and 13. Week 8 was his final win. It wasn't until week 12 when D Kessler could have started M Cassel QB (36.12 FP) instead of P Rivers QB (8.1 FP) for a win that his bench would have helped him win. But with P Rivers performing so well for him all year long, no one would have benched P Rivers for M Cassel. With a win in week 12 and maybe even the week 1 would have only provided 2 more wins for Kessler. Five wins would not have been enough to make the playoffs under the new playoff format. Winning in week 1 and week 12 would have required a week 13 win just to even have a chance to make the playoffs according to winning percentage. But Ghost scored about 200 more FP in the regular season and Kabuki Strikes Back scored about 160 FP more than Points ON the Bench. So even if we got a

All of this proves that Point ON the Bench misnamed his team. The bench points would have only given him maybe 1 or 2 wins total which would not have even given him a shot at the playoffs.
It is easy to wonder about "what ifs" and other hypothetical scenarios. But the best thing one can do is provide your team with a lot of depth to pool your best sit/starts on a weekly basis. When a team's draft places you in a poor position in the depth department then you are going to just have to suffer and make it as fun as possible. Part of that fun could even be misnaming your team! isn't that right NoRegiNoRerunNoRent?

Points ON the Bench's Final 2010 Roster
I have included the upcoming 2011 draft round and pick number (overall pick is in parentheses) of each player on Points ON the Bench's final roster followed by the name of the player, player's position, any 1st Rd Keeper Value players, total # of fantasy starts for the season (a * indicates developmental eligibility for 2011's draft; some players were on more than one team but their total starts for all teams is listed); and total fantasy points scored by the player for the 16 fantasy week season (which is not subject to the # of starts):

1. (3) Shonn Greene RB (1st Rd Keeper Value); 7 fantasy starts; 106.6 fp
2. (18) Philip Rivers QB; 12 fantasy starts; 370.6 fp
3. (23) Tony Gonzalez TE; 5 fantasy starts; 138.8 fp
3. (23) Chad Ochocinco WR; 9 fantasy starts; 132.55 fp
4. (38) Pierre Thomas RB; 4 fantasy starts (4 with Simba's Buttkicker!); 83.08 fp
5. (43) Jonathan Stewart RB; 6 fantasy starts; 100.15 fp
6. (58) Brandon Marshall WR; 11 fantasy starts; 153 fp
7. (63)
8. (78)
9. (83)
10. (98) San Francisco DEF; 8 fantasy starts (2 with SOCIAL ISoTopes and 6 with Points ON the Bench); 121 fp
11. (103) Mason Crosby K; 12 fantasy starts; 118 fp
12. (118)
13. (123) Jacoby Jones WR; 8 fantasy starts; 123.07 fp
14. (138) Visanthe Shiancoe TE; 8 fantasy starts; 85.5 fp
15. (143) BenJarvus Green-Ellis RB; 5 fantasy starts; 195.05 fp (Undrafted)
15. (143) Jacoby Ford WR; 0* fantasy starts; 146.67 fp (Undrafted)
15. (143) Kenny Britt WR; 1* fantasy start; 134.75 fp (Undrafted)
15. (143) Matt Cassel QB; 1* fantasy start; 293.14 fp (Undrafted)

Looking Ahead at 2011
From Here
In my opinion the only sure fire fantasy producer on D Kessler's team is his QB P Rivers Rd 2. Others have the potential to be productive but not as sure fire as Rivers. So the question becomes, who will be a more assured fantasy footballer in 2011 than the others in the list of potentials?

S Greene RB is the future RB for the NY Jets but with Rex Ryan riding on the last of the treading on the wheels called L Tomlinson, the future for Greene may still be a year away. But there's nothing like learning from one of the decade's best RBs in the meantime and that future could be bright for Greene. Is he worth a 1st Rd pick though?

There's no telling where C Ochocinco will play in 2011 since he is asking to be traded. And even if he remains in Cincinnati his QB situation is not at all fixed either with C Palmer requesting a trade as well. So we'll leave the talent also known as C Johnson the soccer player etc. a big question mark. Hopefully it is a clear scenario before the Brothers Keeper keeper declaration date. This is probably too big of question for a Rd 3 value too.

P Thomas is a solid RB. Last year he was injured. He is also on a team that has depth at RB and doesn't always require him to run. With that said, he is good and probably will perform at least at a Rd 4 level where he'd be kept.

J Stewart is a solid RB when healthy. He has missed time for injury every year which doesn't bode well. He could have the most healthy year in 2011 but he is such a nimble quick runner that he could hurt himself just by running too fast. D Williams is a free agent so we are unsure as to whether or not he'd remain in Carolina or sign elsewhere. As a 5th Rd value keeper he'd have the potential to either perform like A Foster or R Bush. Here's why: It definitely depends on whether or not D Williams is in front of J Stewart on the depth chart and if M Goodson RB shares a large number of carries as a backup to Stewart. With a new head coach in Carolina for 2011 we'll have to wait and see what happens in the preseason following the signing of D Williams.

From Here
B Marshall WR had an interesting year in Miami in 2010. He was a great threat when in Denver. Now he has C Henne passing the ball. C Pennington QB will not play this year and become another former player analyst on TV. So if Henne goes down again Pennington isn't there to be the solid backup and still keep B Marshall productive. He isn't a bad value as a 6th Rd pick, but he would need to outperform what he did in 2011 by about 1 FP per week to just meet the 2010 Ideal Draft Chart Value. He performed like a 10th Rd selection. He is in a much more solid situation than C Ochocinco WR or J Stewart RB. His QB has thrown to him before and his coaching staff remains in place. Now that he will be in his second year in Miami he should be back to a more productive line with a higher reception total and thus more chances to score TDs.

From Here
While it may be hard to believe, B Green-Ellis RB is also on the list under consideration. His 195.05 FP is nothing to sneeze at. L Maroney RB has left the building and B Green-Ellis appears to lead the pack of RBs in NE now. When he ran the ball close to 20 times a game he had around 80+ yards and a really good chance at scoring a TD. Not bad for a 15th Rd keeper value.

J Ford WR, K Britt WR, and M Cassel QB, all 15th Rd value keepers, are Points ON the Bench's developmental eligible players. Depending on where Points ON the Bench wants depth, QB or WR, will determine which of the 3 to keep. Both WRs will experience new head coaches. So we have no idea how each will learn a new play book or even be utilized. Nor is the QB situation in Tennessee or Oakland a lock, let alone filled with talent. K Britt is having offseason legal issues which makes him more questionable too. There was a reason all three of these went undrafted in last year's draft. They could easily be unkept probably too.

My Best Guess at Points ON the Bench's 2011 Keepers
If I were to guess who Points ON the Bench would keep I might be tempted to say D Kessler would keep a TE again. T Gonzalez TE is definitely a future Hall of Famer. He has a great QB throwing the ball in Atlanta too. But keeping a TE in the 3d Rd in 2011 makes no sense when it wasn't productive to do so in the 4th Rd in 2010. Besides, there have been a lot of TEs emerge as viable fantasy options in recent years and the top TEs are no longer as select as they once used to be. Plus, T Gonzalez is old for an NFL player. So in my guess, I will say Kessler is finished with keeping the TE. The strategy may have had a helping hand in 2008 for his championship run but now is the time to work on a new strategy and his team could be a playoff contender for a few years with S Greene RB, P Rivers QB, and B Marshall WR. If not S Greene (freeing up a 1st Rd pick) then he would probably go with P Thomas RB over J Stewart RB. That provides Kessler with a 1st and 3d Rd pick too. So maybe P Thomas is the one to go with other than S Greene unless he thinks J Stewart will do well in 2011 despite the unknowns in Carolina.

Brothers Keeper Third Party Consultant's Best Guess at Points ON the Bench's 2011 Keepers
"I'm going Rivers, J Stewart, B Marshall and Kenny Britt as the developmental keeper. That gives him two WRs and one RB with a 1st and 3rd pick still to follow. In those rounds I would probably go with an RB (Greene) at #3 or the best available WR. He's got decent building blocks with J Stewart having the skills to be the best back in the NFL. The guy is a legit option as a top 3-5 pick if he's a starter and D Williams is out the door in Carolina next year. Rivers is the best fantasy QB in the NFL right now. The guy is a one man show and Turner shows no signs of slowing him down and as a 2nd Rd pick is about where he would go. Marshall and Britt are great WRs with bad QBs. If Marshall would have stayed in Denver he would be a top 3 WR. Britt is an absolute beast on the field when a QB with decent talent is throwing him the ball. If you go back and watch his highlights from that 200 yrd game he had you'll be surprised he didn't have 300 yrds. He is almost impossible for DBs to tackle."

The Pending Impending Brothers Keeper 5 (2011) Fantasy Football Season

This is just a quick reminder for the league participants of Brothers Keeper to sign in to the league. You should have received an email concerning the matter from the League Commissioner last week. Those yet to sign up include:

J Smith
D Kessler
R Johnson
R C Smith
J Fullerton (UPDATE: Per the League Commissioner, he has decided to retire from Brothers Keeper)
New Guy

I will cross your name off the list as I see you log in to the league website. Anyone wishing to discontinue their league participation please contact the League Commissioner promptly (by email, text message, phone, or in person) as we will have a number of procedures to follow once you forfeit your team (Canons IV. Team Transfers). Your promptness and help in this matter would be greatly appreciated. Have a good Summer.

Thursday, June 23, 2011

Looking Ahead 2011: Simba's Buttkicker!

This is the third post of a series of blogs covering each team from the 2010 Brothers Keeper league in detail. We began with the last place team moving up to the top of the league standings as it stood at the end of the 2010 fantasy football season (cf. CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS; and Kabuki Strikes Back). Next up, Simba's Buttkicker! (R Johnson).

Pseudo 'Champions' label on the t-shirt is out of place.
Overview of Simba's Buttkicker!'s Brothers Keeper History
2007 Simba's Butt Kicker: 4-10-0 (9th Place) 1535.54 points; 49 transactions
2008 Simba's Buttkicker: 2-11-0 (10th Place) 1080.75 points; 40 transactions
2009 Simba's ButtKicker!: 7-6-0 (4th Place) 1455.30 points; 29 transactions
2010 Simba's Buttkicker!: 2-11-0 (8th Place) 1193.53 points; 23 transactions

Simba's Buttkicker!'s 2010 Keeper Declaration
Who keeps a cat?
The Brothers Keeper Keeper Declaration day came and R Johnson elected to keep M Turner RB in the 2d Rd, R White WR in the 3d Rd, M Schaub QB in the 5th Rd, and J Cribbs WR as his developmental eligible keeper in the 15th Rd. Looking back one might have questioned if tossing aside D Williams RB was a good thing for 2010 but it was. Good choice. However, A Gates TE performed very well when healthy as a result of being one of P Rivers's QB only solid target with V Jackson WR unsigned. But he was MIA at the end of the regular season and fantasy playoffs. So maybe not such a bad idea to not keep him but he would have rewarded handsomely if he was.

By the way, let's get an updated look at the 2008 trade between J Fullerton and R Johnson:

Trade Comparison:
L Tomlinson
2008 Total Fantasy Points: 256.30
2009 Total Fantasy Points: 168.70
2010 Total Fantasy Points: 197.8
Total: 622.8

M Turner
2008 Total Fantasy Points: 275.95
2009 Total Fantasy Points: 149.85
2010 Total Fantasy Points: 221.35
Total: 647.15

M Turner is beginning to edge out L Tomlinson but not by much. I am actually pleasantly surprised it has turned out this even as I figured Tomlinson was on the downward trend in his career. However, while Tomlinson has been a first Rd keeper the last two seasons, Turner was kept as a 3d Rd pick in 2009 and a 2d Rd pick in 2010 thus freeing up R Johnson to select players earlier in the draft while J Fullerton didn't have the same luxury. So on two separate levels this has been a bonus for R Johnson in the long term.

Simba's Buttkicker!'s 2010 Draft
Following the old Keeper League Draft Order Rule Simba's Buttkicker! (R Johnson) had the 8th overall draft pick position in the 2010 draft due to his playoff loss. His 2010 draft results are thus (noting those who were kept from his 2009 final roster with a This player is a keeper.):

1.(8)Ryan Mathews (SD - RB)
2.(13)Michael Turner This player is a keeper. (Atl - RB)
3.(28)Roddy White This player is a keeper. (Atl - WR)
4.(33)Pierre Thomas (NO - RB)
5.(48)Matt Schaub This player is a keeper. (Hou - QB)
6.(53)Vincent Jackson (SD - WR)
7.(68)Dexter McCluster (KC - WR,RB)
8.(73)Fred Jackson (Buf - RB)
9.(88)Garrett Hartley (NO - K)
10.(93)Chris Cooley (Was - TE)
11.(108)Vince Young (Ten - QB)
12.(113)Rob Gronkowski (NE - TE)
13.(128)Chicago (Chi - DEF)
14.(133)Devin Hester (Chi - WR)
15.(148)Joshua Cribbs This player is a keeper. (Cle - WR)

Here's Simba's Buttkicker!'s 2010 Draft compared to the 2010 Brothers Keeper Fantasy Football Ideal Draft Value Chart results:

As you should be able to see, R Johnson's keepers (M Turner; R White; and M Schaub) performed well enough to have been good keeper selections (near or above the perfect market efficiency of their draft pick position). J Cribbs WR was definitely a viable keeper before 2010 began if one were inclined to employ 2009's late season successes. However he wasn't as good of a keeper for 2010. Since he was only worth a 15th Rd pick, it wasn't detrimental to Simba's Buttkicker!'s attempt to revisit the playoffs.

Going back to the 2008 trade with J Fullerton, in 2009 R Johnson selected D Williams RB and A Gates TE with his first two picks and they proved quite productive. In 2010 R Johnson selected R Mathews in the 1st Rd but with less success. The advantage for 2010 wasn't there as with 2009 on account of a lackluster draft choice.

What seems difficult to understand is who R Johnson should have selected with the 8th pick overall (3d pick if you consider the 1st Rd keepers). J Smith's Yankinfowlsandfeline selected G Jennings WR. Then D Kessler's Points ON the Bench nabbed S Greene RB. Hindsight is always 20/20. Personally I would have selected D Williams RB who underperformed anyhow. R Mathews RB was an untested highly toted rookie. In a keeper league I can understand why he would have been desired. But was he going to be a legitimate 3d overall pick? Only if he performed out of his gourd in the years to come. But that won't help Simba's Buttkicker! because he no longer is on his roster.

However this wasn't the full extent of R Johnson's failure. P Thomas RB might have been a good selection with the 4th Rd pick but he was injured missing a huge amount of the fantasy season. V Jackson WR in the 6th Rd would have been a great selection but V Jackson went unsigned for most of the fantasy season and then when he finally signed in order to gain an extra year to his resume (toward a more veteran status) he was hit with a suspension thus delaying his entry into league play even later. Then R Johnson selected D McCluster in the 7th Rd. He also did not produce near the Ideal Draft Value Chart level. While the keepers were good the draft picks were terrible. Three good keepers wasn't going to be able to sustain the weight of four bad draft picks in the first 7 rounds. My guess is that even if R Johnson's lot of draft picks performed as good or as conservatively as J Fullerton's draft picks R Johnson would have seen the playoffs for the 2d time in 4 years of Brothers Keeper league play.

End of Season Commentary
What else should one expect from a guy who is stuck in a bad relationship with M Turner (5.55 FP)? Feeling a sour relationship even before the season started R Johnson turned to Kareem "lotsa" Huggins RB for waiver wire hope. Hmmm... maybe now we know why Turner played so bad. Disloyalty is the worst kind of sin. Loyalty is rewarded heftily with benefits. Just look at R White's WR day (18.55 FP). Perhaps next time Simba's Buttkicker! will be able to make up the 13.73 points for a win. Nah, who am I kidding. He's a scavenger of the sea floor in Brothers Keeper sitting in 9th place after week one. Dance with the one who brung ya. Ok, so he dropped Kareem "lotsa" Huggins RB and picked up M Vick QB.... only to bench M Schaub who he kept from 2009. Schaub only scored 7.97 FP in week 1. In week 2 M Vick scored 28.06 FP but Simba's Buttkicker! lost 94.71 to 110.5. However, If he had started M Schaub instead of M Vick at QB he would have won. You see, M Schaub was the spurned dance partner now so he scored 42.08 FP. So let's see what week 3 will bring: R Johnson restarted M Schaub, though spurned, and and M Schaub said, "Not gonna do it" and scored only 11.64 FP. Meanwhile, M Vick scored 39.64 FP. Guess what. He could have won week 3 too since he lost by 15 points. Back and forth back and forth. Make up your mind old man and try to win. Stop being so disloyal to such sensitive fantasy stars.

R Johnson's floundering disloyal ways caused him to muse, "Another keeper team that sucks. It is going to be a long season!" on his team status. D Pilcher's Redmans CatClippers retorted, "I love it when the Buttt whines and loses... I really do..." And order was restored followed by 2 more losses. That's right, R Johnson opened the season with an 0-5 record. In fact, he lost so bad to Redmans CatClippers in week 5 that if you had doubled Simba's Buttkicker!'s FP he would have still lost. It just goes to show who's butt was really getting kicked. Poor cat. Even more disturbing than this is the following real pictures of R Johnson from his band Adam's Apple (or Adams Apple... disloyal to the apostrophe!):

Can't you hear it being sung?
When the truth is found to be lies
and all the joys within you dies
don't you want somebody to love
don't you need somebody to love
wouldn't you love somebody to love
you better find somebody to love
A rumor I heard supposedly had R Johnson kicked off the high school team by a coach because of the long hair. I hope it was worth being in a band playing with sticks than with baseball bats.

Oh yeah, where was I? Oh yeah. Week 6. Well somehow Simba's Buttkicker!'s opponent, Ghost, ended up with M Vick QB (see the trade on the upcoming Looking Ahead 2011: Ghost). M Schaub liked it and scored 27.5 FP and R Johnson finally cracked the 100 point barrier and saw his first fantasy win of 2010 (mainly because Ghost had some folks on a bye but we don't want to take anything away from R Johnson because he needs everything he can get as you will see). In week 7 R White WR and M Turner RB both dominated and pushed R Johnson to a season high (through the first 7 weeks) score of 123.51 FP over Points ON the Bench's 103.32 FP. This is the end of the high point of R Johnson's fantasy season. Short lived for a short in stature man as he.

I don't know how one could do it normally but R Johnson could do so if you ask me. He bested his 5 game losing streak to open the season with a 6 game losing streak to end the season. In fact, it seems even more improbable knowing that the last time he cracked the 100 point barrier in week 11 he scored 145.01 FP but lost to Kabuki Strikes Back's 158.24 FP trouncing. It's really a sad state of affairs for R Johnson.

Last year I warned:
This may not have been a very good strategy for R Johnson's future. The further he went into the playoffs the worse his draft pick position would be in 2010. In three years of Brothers Keeper drafting he has had 2 number one draft picks and 1 number two draft pick. He's never had anything past the third pick in the draft. With the 2009 4th place finish he will now suffer by drafting eighth. For a person who needs all the draft help he can get this might not be a good thing. It will all depend on his draft prep.
It appears 2009's late and probably unjustified playoff run set him up for a bigger failure than R Johnson believed due to a later than normal draft pick scenario for R Johnson. We can now add the upcoming 2011 draft to the numbers: In five years of Brothers Keeper drafting he will have had 3 number one draft picks and 1 number two draft pick along with 1 number 8 draft pick position. Unbelieveable. The man loves him some #1 draft pick... or he loves losing. This video reminds me of R Johnson's Brothers Keeper career:

He has yet to earn the "Champions" nomenclature his T-shirt suggests. I guess wearing such clothes (as with other outrageous outfits in the above photos) is an attempt to lift his spirits in losing times. Keep smiling R Johnson and we'll keep winning out of your reach... and on a personal note you and your wife are in our prayers.

Simba's Buttkicker!'s Final 2010 Roster
Despite winning a couple games in the consolation bracket, the 2010 version of Simba's Buttkicker!'s had a terrible regular season winning percentage and extremely low fantasy point total. As a result R Johnson qualified for the first overall draft pick position according to the new draft order equation. I have included the upcoming 2011 draft round and pick number (overall pick is in parentheses) of each player on Simba's Buttkicker!'s final roster followed by the name of the player, player's position, any 1st Rd Keeper Value players, total # of fantasy starts for the season (a * indicates developmental eligibility for 2011's draft; some players were on more than one team but their total starts for all teams is listed); and total fantasy points scored by the player for the 16 fantasy week season (which is not subject to the # of starts):

1. (1) Michael Truner RB (1st Rd Keeper Value); 11 fantasy starts; 221.35 fp
1. (1) Frank Gore RB (1st Rd Keeper Value); 11 fantasy starts (11 with SOCIAL ISoTopes); 179.9 fp
2. (20) Roddy White WR; 11 fantasy starts; 246.75 fp
3. (21)
4. (40) Matt Schaub QB; 11 fantasy starts; 323.6 fp
5. (41)
6. (60) Vincent Jackson WR; 1* fantasy start; 45.8 fp
7. (61) Thomas Jones RB; 10 fantasy starts (1 with Ghost and 9 with Simba's Buttkicker!); 143.7 fp
8. (80)
9. (81)
10. (100)
11. (101)
12. (120)
13. (121) Brandon Jacobs RB; 3* fantasy starts; 142.25 fp
14. (140)
15. (141) New England DEF; 2* fantasy starts; 174 fp (Undrafted)
15. (141) Stevie Johnson WR; 6 fantasy starts; 193.65 fp (Undrafted)
15. (141) Marcedes Lewis TE; 1* fantasy start (1 with Yer X-MOM); 149 fp (Undrafted)
15. (141) Mike Tolbert RB; 8 fantasy starts (4 with Ghost and 4 with Simba's Buttkicker!); 171.3 fp (Undrafted)
15. (141) Matt Bryant K; 5 fantasy starts (1 with SOCIAL ISoTopes and 4 with Simba's Buttkicker!); 135 fp (Undrafted)
15. (141) Lance Moore WR; 2* fantasy starts; 153.88 fp (Undrafted)
15. (141) Dustin Keller TE; 7 fantasy starts; 119.35 fp (Undrafted)
15. (141) Brad Smith WR; 0* fantasy starts; 106.07 fp (Undrafted)

Looking Ahead 2011
Stuck in the doldrums of picking first overall, R Johnson needs to do a better job keeping talent, drafting, and starting players on a week to week basis. Scoring near the bottom in total fantasy points so often just isn't going to get anyone anywhere they want to go in competition scenarios unless you play golf. R Johnson also cannot drop and add and sit and start people like he can in fantasy baseball competitions. NFL players don't have hot streaks. They are much more influenced by the defenses they face than maybe many are willing to admit.

I was surprised a frustrated Brothers Keeper Commissioner and SOCIAL ISoTopes owner, M Peltonen dropped a perennial underperforming F Gore RB so late in the fantasy season from his squad. Doing his due diligence R Johnson picked him up utilizing his waiver wire priority since he was in last place. But here's the thing. Now R Johnson is in a bit of a dilemma with his talent. M Turner RB Rd1, F Gore RB Rd 1, R White WR Rd 2, M Schaub QB Rd 4, V Jackson WR Rd 6, and S Johnson WR Rd 15 would be under my instant consideration to keep. V Jackson is developmental eligible so take him out of consideration for the 3 remaining keepers. That also give Simba's Buttkicker!'s a WR to begin with.

If one were so inclined to keep F Gore, M Turner, and R White (2 WRs and 2 RBs) R Johnson would not have a draft pick available to him to select a RB/WR Flex or QB until Rd 4 and Rd 5 (back to back picks picks 40 and 41). That leaves him waiting until Rd 7 for a TE.

Perhaps R Johnson would rather keep M Schaub QB instead of one of the RBs. That would free up a Rd 3 draft pick. Another way to free up a Rd 3 draft pick would be to not keep R White WR, but rather keep the up and coming S Johnson WR in the 15th Rd instead.
Another option could also free up the 1st pick overall, and his 3d Rd pick. In this scenario, because R Johnson has the first pick, he would not keep either RB but instead would have three WRs and a QB (R White, V Jackson, S Johnson, and M Schaub). With the 1st pick overall, he can easily pick his choice of F Gore or M Turner or any other RB of his choice available and still have a pick in the 3d Rd for another RB. Kind of a different route to take but one worth considering.

My Best Guess at Simba's Buttkicker!'s 2011
First and foremost R Johnson will definitely keep his old cat Simba. Maybe his cat is bad luck as his team's mascot, but it is his mascot. I guess he is loyal somewhere after all. In this section it is not for me to think what R Johnson should do but what it is he probably will do. My best guess is that F Gore RB, M Turner RB, R White WR, and V Jackson WR as developmental would be retained by R Johnson for 2011. My gut just doesn't tell me he passes on having two solid middle of the road RBs. It will put him into a position of depth at RB that he hasn't been in for some time.

Keepers Brothers Keeper Third Party Consultant's Best Guess at Simba's Buttkicker!'s 2011 Keepers
Running to the bathroom
"Okay after a couple days of debating on this I'm going Gore, Roddy White, Matt Schaub and V Jax as [the] developmental player. It took me around 2 days to decide who was the better between Gore and Turner but with Turner going on 30 this year and with Gore's line getting better I'm gonna roll with Frank the Tank! I chose Schaub over Turner as well because when healthy he's a top 5 fantasy QB and with a healthy Owen Daniels coming back this year along with A Johnson and Arian Foster he should be back in the top 5. It's gonna be close but he should find another decent starting RB in Rd 3 that should be a prime spot to grab a new starter or a decent vet."

Tuesday, June 21, 2011

Looking Ahead 2011: Kabuki Strikes Back

This is the second post of a series of blogs covering each team from the 2010 Brothers Keeper league in detail. We began with the last place team moving up to the top of the league standings as it stood at the end of the 2010 fantasy football season (c.f. CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS). Second up, Kabuki Strikes Back (J Fullerton).
Overview of J Fullerton's Brother's Keeper History
2007 RETURN OF KABUKI: 7-7-0 (2d Place) 1415.26 points; 9 transactions
2008 KABOOOOOOOKI: 6-7-0 (5th Place) 1202.07 points; 5 transactions
2009 Kabuki Strikes Back: 3-10-0 (10th Place) 1298.73 points; 8 transactions
2010 Kabuki Strikes Back: 6-7-0 (9th Place) 1380 points; 10 transactions

Kabuki Strikes Back's 2010 Keeper Declaration
As you'll see in the next section Kabuki Strikes Back has managed to keep multiple 1st Rd keepers in L Tomlinson RB and P Manning QB. With K Moreno RB kept in the 4th Rd, that left Kabuki with only 1 pick in the top 40 picks (or 1 in the top 20 if you subtract the keeper selections). This might be an advantageous choice if the 1st Rd keepers perform at or above their Ideal Draft Value. While K Moreno RB performed close to the Ideal Draft Value, P Manning QB, L Tomlinson RB, and M Crabtree WR did not. I totally understand the gamble with Tomlinson and Manning as they were greats of the previous generation of fantasy players. Even B Favre QB had a good year in 2009 right? However it wasn't as beneficial to go with the older aged players that early in the draft. P Manning performed equivalent to a 3d Rd value pick (according to his FPOB) but Tomlinson would have been more accurately selected in the 4th Rd not the 1st Rd. M Crabtree is an investment in the future. Hopefully he will begin to show fruit in his upcoming third NFL season in 2011.

Kabuki Strikes Back's 2010 Draft
Following the old Keeper League Draft Order Rule Kabuki Strikes Back (J Fullerton) had the 1st overall draft pick position in the 2010 draft due to his poor performance in 2009 (10th Place). His 2010 draft results are thus (noting those who were kept from his 2009 final roster with a This player is a keeper.):

1.(1)LaDainian Tomlinson This player is a keeper. (NYJ - RB)
1.(1)Peyton Manning This player is a keeper. (Ind - QB)
3.(21)Marques Colston (NO - WR)
4.(40)Knowshon Moreno This player is a keeper. (Den - RB)
5.(41)Joseph Addai (Ind - RB)
6.(60)Eli Manning (NYG - QB)
7.(61)Santonio Holmes (NYJ - WR)
8.(80)Michael Crabtree This player is a keeper. (SF - WR)
9.(81)John Carlson (Sea - TE)
10.(100)Chester Taylor (Chi - RB)
11.(101)Baltimore (Bal - DEF)
12.(120)Nate Kaeding (SD - K)
13.(121)Braylon Edwards (NYJ - WR)
14.(140)Donald Brown (Ind - RB)
15.(141)Early Doucet (Ari - WR)

Here's Kabuki Strikes Back's 2010 draft compared to the 2010 Brothers Keeper Fantasy Football Ideal Draft Value Chart results:

I don't think anyone could argue that Kabuki Strikes Back had a bad draft in 2010 (beyond the keeper selections). Only J Addai RB, J Carlson TE, C Taylor RB, D Brown RB, and E Doucet WR did poorly compared to their draft position. It may have been that no quality TE was still available to draft by the time J Carlson was selected in the 9th round. Taking a chance on C Taylor RB, D Brown RB, and E Doucet WR late in the draft seems acceptable too. They were after the 9th round. Anything after the 9th round would usually not be a normal starter anyhow (negative FPOB; below replacement level). Really, the only questionable pick would be J Addai RB in round 5. Kabuki Strikes Back had a very solid draft. It just appears to be a little too conservative as no pick stood out as a great pick exceeding their Ideal Draft Value by a large amount.

2010 End of Season Commentary
In 2009, J Fullerton's Kabuki Strikes Back never struck back. It was more like a strike out. So how did it go in 2010? No one bats 1.000 in the MLB. But a good record for any MLB team must be above .500 and Fullerton's team, though try as he might, didn't quite make it.

J Fullerton's Kabuki Strikes Back was defeated by Ghost 99.97 to 118.72 to begin 2010. C Palmer QB (27.7 FP) and D Clark TE (21 FP) dominated the fantasy game with solid performances by D Driver WR (12.5 FP), A Peterson RB (12.4 FP), and R Brown RB (15.5 FP) to take down P Manning 's huge day (41.32 FP). If only A Collie WR was picked up earlier and started by Kabuki he might have had a better chance to beat Ghost than he did (22.55 FP). P Manning just didn't have the supporting cast that he needed to beat Houston or to help Kabuki Strikes Back beat Ghost in fantasy play. Can a team so heavily dependent upon one man be great?

In the second week, while Kabuki Strikes Back beat Simba's Buttkicker!, R Johnson could have easily bested J Fullerton if he had started M Schaub QB (42.08 FP) and J Cribbs WR (13.6 FP) instead of M Vick QB (28.06 FP) and D McCluster WR (1.6 FP). But a win is a win and he moved right along to beat SOCIAL ISoTopes in week 3 and Yer X-MOM in week 4. Yer X-MOM had a bench with the ability to beat Kabuki Strikes Back as did R Johnson in week 2. Kabuki Strikes Back's 3 game winning streak came to an end when he faced TheSloppyButts but he could have extended his winning streak with a strong bench performance by M Crabtree (20.25 FP) and E Manning (27.78 FP). P Manning suffered only a 7.46 FP performance and A Collie only scored 7.4 FP. It really is important to sit and start the right players each week. Optimizing your performance earlier in the season gives you a greater chance to see the playoffs. So starting off the season with 4 wins and 2 losses definitely helped Kabuki out. In week 7 he narrowly was beaten (114.24 to 116.16). His entire bench save J Carlson was on a bye. He maxed out his fantasy points but was still beaten by CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS.

Feeling so Tanked
 Bouncing right back in week 8 Kabuki Strikes Back dominated Yankinfowlsandfeline who scored a season low 73.88 FP. Sitting at 5 wins and 3 losses definitely gave the appearance everything was all right for Kabuki Strikes Back as long as P Manning didn't really suffer too badly the rest of the season. But that's what happened. The next two weeks were low scoring losses by Kabuki thanks to low fantasy production by P Manning . In fact, counting those 2 weeks, Kabuki went the rest of the season losing 4 times and winning only once. The early successes led to late season losses and a miss of the fantasy playoffs. The only explanation was that P Manning suffered as did the others he played with in Indianapolis and on Kabuki Strikes Back. Had J Fullerton been able to exceed the Ideal Draft Value Chart rather than produce conservative results just below the Ideal Draft Value, maybe he could have won another game or two and keep a playoff spot.

In fact, it came down to the last regular fantasy season game. Ghost and Kabuki Strikes Back were tied in the standings with a 6 - 6 (.500 Pct) win - loss record. Ghost edged Kabuki by 22.08 FP to break the tie in standings and owned the playoff spot tentatively. He had yet to clinch it. Ghost either needed to win and Kabuki lose or if they both won Ghost needed to score enough FP to maintain a lead. However, Ghost lost to Redman's CatClippers in week 13 and Kabuki Strikes Back lost to Yer X-MOM. Ghost easily maintained his edge in FP to break the regular season winning percentage tie and thus claimed a spot in the playoffs. 
I was feeling so up!

Looking back at the regular season, Kabuki Strikes Back was only outscored by 40 FP on the season by his opponents on the year. That's a little over 3.07 FP average per week. With only 3 wins in the final 9 weeks you can't help but wonder how defeated that must have felt. The only thing he was motivated to do in the consolation bracket was to beat out CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS in the toilet bowl to avoid the embarrassment of last place. So he won that game (84.86 to 60.73).

Kabuki Strikes Back's Final 2010 Roster
Following the new Keeper League Draft Order, Kabuki Strikes Back, while failing to win in the initial game of the consolation bracket won the Toilet Bowl and staved off the humiliation of being a two time last place finisher. As such, while placing 9th in the standings, Kabuki Strikes Back will actually have the 4th pick draft position in the upcoming 2011 Brothers Keeper fantasy football draft. I have included the upcoming 2011 draft round and pick number (overall pick is in parentheses) of each player on Kabuki Strikes Back's final roster followed by the name of the player, player's position, any 1st Rd Keeper Value players, total # of fantasy starts for the season (a * indicates developmental eligibility for 2011's draft; some players were on more than one team but their total starts for all teams is listed); and total fantasy points scored by the player for the 16 fantasy week season (which is not subject to the # of starts):

1. (4) Peyton Manning QB (1st Rd Keeper Value); 12 fantasy starts; 389.8 fp
1. (4) LaDainian Tomlinson RB (1st Rd Keeper Value); 11 fantasy starts; 197.8 fp
2. (17)
3. (24) Knowshon Moreno RB; 8 fantasy starts; 177.5 fp
3. (24) Marques Colston WR; 12 fantasy starts; 177.25 fp
4. (37)
5. (44) Ricky Williams RB; 8 fantasy starts; 107.35 fp
5. (44) Joseph Addai RB; 6 fantasy starts; 96.7 fp
6. (57) Eli Manning QB; 1* fantasy starts; 315.08 fp
7. (64) Michael Crabtree WR; 3* fantasy starts; 128.05 fp
8. (77)
9. (84) John Carlson TE; 8 fantasy starts; 52.9 fp
10. (97)
11. (104) Baltimore DEF; 11 fantasy starts; 129 fp
12. (117)
13. (124) Braylon Edwards WR; 8 fantasy starts; 140.6 fp
13. (124) Jeremy Shockey TE; 5 fantasy starts; 79.4 fp
14. (137)
15. (144) Billy Cundiff K; 5 fantasy starts (1 with Yer X-MOM and 4 with Kabuki Strikes Back); 121 fp (Undrafted)
15. (144) Jason Snelling RB; 1* fantasy starts; 121.55 fp (Undrafted)
15. (144) Roy Williams WR; 8 fantasy starts; 91.5 fp (Undrafted)

Looking Ahead at 2011
Will he break out in year 3?
J Fullerton is in a tough position with Kabuki Strikes Back. He can be competitive in 2011 under good circumstances or he can be mediocre. Not bad but probably not great. The position he is in, if he were to keep his best QB, RB, and WR combination (P Manning QB, K Moreno RB [who is under pressure from his GM], and M Colston WR), he would not have a pick until the 37th overall pick. Then the debate becomes whether or not to keep E Manning QB or M Crabtree WR as his developmental eligible keepers. I like them both but he will need another WR if he selects a RB in Rd 3 or 4. It just depends on who Kabuki wants to keep. Obviously they are both productive and are both only a single Rd in value away from each other. E Manning could be good trade fodder. Plus, if he wanted to forgo keeping P Manning in the 1st Rd he could keep E Manning at a good value too. But that leaves him open to letting another stellar team with a higher draft pick with the chance to gain a solid QB. Some of those teams are only a QB away from winning the 2011 Championship too. Regardless of who is kept, J Fullerton needs to score big on some draft picks who will exceed the 2011 Ideal Draft Value Chart later in the draft.

My Best Guess at Kabuki Strikes Back's 2011 Keepers
P Manning QB, K Moreno RB, M Colston WR, and M Crabtree WR as the developmental eligible choice. This makes the most sense. This means he has the potential to be a playoff team again and not need to rebuild yet. If one were inclined to give up a WR (either Colston or Crabtree ) for E Manning , it leaves a glaring hole needing to be filled at WR and RB instead of just at RB if he passed on E Manning with so few early picks to do so. Personally I might try to trade P Manning for future potential. However, people might  not be willing to pay if the asking price is unrealistically high.
Brothers Keeper Third Party Consultant's Best Guess at Kabuki Strikes Back's 2011 Keepers
"I think he'll keep Peyton. Well he really has to keep him. He really is the only guy on his roster that would most likely be drafted in the Rd that he's kept in. Colston should be kept as well. He's not worth a 3d Rd pick. I would think all the other top WRs are going to be keepers on other teams. Everyone else should be thrown back and not drafted or redrafted about 5 rounds later than their keeper value. Crabtree might seem like a nice keeper who might have a decent year but 12th Rd would be a better fit for him until he gets a proven QB under center cuz Smith is garbage.

"I like Moreno but not in the 3d Rd. I think he'll still be able to draft him in the 6th or 7th Rd. He's got talent and John Fox likes to run. But Deangelo Williams might be a Bronco in a couple months and that should be something he should be watching as soon as FAs can sign. I think Moreno is more like top 60 if he's not splitting time in Denver. If you can only start 2 RBs and one is Moreno then your RBs are a weakness Moreno is a guy that maybe avg's about 7-9 points. That's low for a starting fantasy RB. Plus his past injuries are bad also. At the flex RB/WR he's worth keeping but for a 3d Rd pick I would still probably say no just cuz I would imagine guys like SJax, Ronnie Brown, Shonne Green, Ryan Mathews and probably DWill will still be available."