Monday, June 20, 2011

Looking Ahead 2011: CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS

This is the first post of a series of upcoming blogs covering each team from the 2010 Brothers Keeper 4 league year in detail. We will begin with the last place team and move up to the top of the league standings as it stood at the end of the 2010 fantasy football season. First up, CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS (R C Smith).

Overview of R C Smith's Brothers Keeper History
2007 The Superbads: 8-6-0 (5th Place) 1524.17 points; 12 transactions
2008 Team Cake Farts: 6-7-0 (8th Place) 1174.03 points; 20 transactions
2009 CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS: 8-5-0 (3rd Place; Bronze Medalist) 1356.46 points; 13 transactions
2010 CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS:  5-8-0 (10th Place) 1180.51 points; 13 transactions

CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS's 2010 Keeper Declaration
We all loved declaration day. For some, the hopes of former glory returning for another year was upon us. For others, it was a day to take down the opposition through strategery. R C Smith's keepers were the talented stars of the previous season(s). D Brees QB (1s Rd), Randy Moss WR (3d Rd), and B Favre QB (11th Rd) all had done extremely well in the previous seasons for CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS. B Wells RB (10th Rd) was a great value pick if the RB became the star some have been predicting. Unfortunately all of them (except D Brees) tanked... big time... and badly in 2010 compared to the previous year(s) of output. Ouch. In fact, B Favre and R Moss's 2010 season both made the top 10 Most dissappointing fantasy seasons. Even worse, when your team has both of them.

Following the old Keeper League Draft Order, CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS (R C Smith) had the 7th overall draft pick position in the 2010 draft due to his solid playoff performance in 2009 (3d Place). His 2010 draft results are thus (noting those who were kept from his 2009 final roster with a This player is a keeper.):

1. (7) Drew Brees This player is a keeper. (NO - QB)
2. (14) DeAngelo Williams (Car - RB)
3. (27) Randy Moss This player is a keeper. (Ten - WR)
4. (34) Ryan Grant (GB - RB)
5. (47) Mike Sims-Walker (Jac - WR)
6. (54) Owen Daniels (Hou - TE)
7. (67) Santana Moss (Was - WR)
8. (74) Jerome Harrison (Phi - RB)
9. (87) Malcom Floyd (SD - WR)
10. (94) Beanie Wells This player is a keeper. (Ari - RB)
11. (107) Brett Favre This player is a keeper. (Min - QB)
12. (114) Tim Hightower (Ari - RB)
13. (127) Bernard Berrian (Min - WR)
14. (134) Philadelphia (Phi - DEF)
15. (147) Jeff Reed (SF - K)
A new feature to the Brothers Keeper Looking Ahead series of posts will now include a chart to see how each team's draft compared to the Brothers Keeper Ideal Draft Value Chart. To do this we need to evaluate a team's draft in relation to that year's performance (not the 3 Year Average [2008 - 2010]). The following chart compares the FPOB of each player drafted by CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS to the 2010 Brothers Keeper Ideal Draft Value Chart. This doesn't mean these players were started and scored this number of FP for the team that drafted them. Nor does it mean these players remained on CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS's team all year. It is merely a visual graph of each drafted player's performance in FPOB compared to the Ideal Draft Value for that pick. So without further ado take a look at our first graphic representation of a Brothers Keeper's fantasy team's fantasy draft:

From a cursory look at the chart we can see that only S Moss WR, Philadelphia DEF, and J Reed K produced more FPOB than the Ideal Draft Value Chart values. Hence, they were good picks. They performed above the value of perfect market efficiency for their draft pick position. This does not mean that all players selected below the Ideal Draft Value Chart values were not good picks. We must consider that keepers will throw this off somewhat. Plus, players like D Brees QB, M Floyd WR, and T Hightower RB drafted by CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS were not drastically below the Ideal Draft Value Chart FPOB. In fact, they may have been valued correctly for the round in which they were indeed drafted. So being close to the 2010 Ideal FPOB or above indicates that they were probably drafted properly. As you can see, CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS's overall draft was poor. The worst offenders were D Williams, R Grant, and B Favre (all due to injury) and R Moss (played on three separate NFL rosters... and just plain stunk). It would be hard to see a team overcome obstacles that steep through free agency under normal circumstances and thus salvage a fantasy season. I hope he invested in some Fantasy Sports Insurance.

End of Season Commentary
CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS suffered from a seriously poor fantasy week right out of the gate in week 1. It would have been difficult to beat Redman's CatClippers regardless (125.52 FP) but important players totally miss-fired for CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS's team (e.g., D Brees QB, R Moss WR, M Sims-Walker WR, D Williams RB, Injured R Grant RB, O Daniels TE, J Harrison RB). Other than T Hightower RB, CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS's bench also suffered. Basically the whole team flopped a mighty big flop. But the nice thing about fantasy football is that you'd rather see it happen all in one week rather than each week. So how did they do the rest of the year?
Will Mick Foley Help?

Well, week 2 was a close game but it still ended in a loss to Ghost. Week 3 was R C Smith's first 2010 regular season win against, none other, than R Johnson's weak Simba's Buttkicker! which is funny because if R Johnson had started M Vick who scored 39.64 FP CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS would have lost. In week 4 CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS was crushed for the second time by a team that more than doubled his team total (see week 1's loss to Redman's CatClippers). There wasn't even a chance to perform better with his bench. This just didn't bode well for R C Smith's 2010 campaign. The lack of depth was a glaring issue but in week 5 CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS defeated the eventual 2010 champion Yer X-MOM (who actually had a bench score way more than what could have been required to win instead of lose). The next two weeks saw CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS lose one and win one before going on a terrible 3 game losing streak of bad losses by significant amounts.

He then bounced back. While taking revenge the next two weeks against Ghost and Simba's Buttkicker! R C Smith may have felt like it assuaged the terror of the poor performances the previous 3 weeks. However it really demonstrated how hot and cold CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS's team was. It is akin to a bipolar disorder. The doctor's remedy? Take some lithium and even out those highs and lows to a more steady and solid team... and don't get injured.

R C Smith's regular season winning percentage was due, in large part, to an easier than average schedule (4th easiest). Hence, despite scoring less fantasy points than Simba's Buttkicker! CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS actually outperformed Simba's Buttkicker! during the regular season. However, Simba's Buttkicker! finally bested CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS in the consolation bracket thus avoiding his own trip to the Toilet Bowl for a second time and avoiding 3 losses in a row to CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS in 2010. So here's your 2010 Brothers Keeper Fantasy Football Toilet Bowl Trophy winner/loser R C Smith's CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS, who did lose to Kabuki Strikes Back in the Toilet Bowl:

Looks so nice on the mantle doesn't it? Going from 3d Place, the Bronze Medalist winner, in 2009 to the Toilet Bowl Trophy winner in 2010 can either be encouraging or discouraging. Hopefully it inspires a better team by R C Smith in 2011. Maybe he should have saved that cigar for another day. So what did R C Smith have to say for himself? "I had a tough beat last year with Moss, Williams, and Grant. Don't plan on me being a pushover this year as I'll be passing the Loser trophy back to [R Johnson]."

CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS's Final 2010 Roster
Following the new Keeper League Draft Order, CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS, while failing to win in the consolation bracket, had a better regular season winning percentage and fantasy team performance than Simba's Buttkicker! who actually did win in the consolation bracket of the playoffs. As such, while placing 10th in the standings, CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS will actually have the 2d overall pick draft position in the upcoming 2011 Brothers Keeper fantasy football draft.

In the following list I have included the upcoming 2011 draft round and pick number (overall pick is in parentheses) of each player on CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS final roster followed by the name of the player, player's position, any 1st Rd Keeper Value players, total # of fantasy starts for the season (a * indicates developmental eligibility for 2011's draft; some players were on more than one team but their total starts for all teams is listed); and total fantasy points scored by the player for the 16 fantasy week season (which is not subject to the # of starts):

1. (2) Drew Brees QB (1st Rd Keeper Value); 12 fantasy starts; 374.85 fp
2. (19) Randy Moss WR; 9 fantasy starts; 77.65 fp
3. (22)
4. (39) Hines Ward WR; 7 fantasy starts (6 with Yer X-MOM and 1 with CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS); 124.55 fp
5. (42) Mike Sims-Walker WR; 5 fantasy starts; 111.1 fp
6. (59)
7. (62) Santana Moss WR; 8 fantasy starts; 180.15 fp
8. (79)
9. (82) Malcolm Floyd WR; 6 fantasy starts; 108.85 fp
9. (82) Beanie Wells RB; 5 fantasy starts; 60.4 fp
10. (99) Brett Favre QB; 1* fantasy starts; 127.16 fp
10. (99) Chris Cooley TE; 8 fantasy starts (5 with Redman's CatClippers and 3 with CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS); 137.45 fp
10. (99) Zach Miller TE (Oak); 4 fantasy starts; 124.5 fp
11. (102)
12. (119)
13. (122)
14. (139) Philadelphia DEF; 13 fantasy starts; 129 fp
15. (142) Rob Bironas K; 8 fantasy starts; 120 fp (Undrafted)
15. (142) Mike Goodson RB; 2* fantasy starts; 147.17 fp (Undrafted)
15. (142) Peyton Hillis RB; 9 fantasy starts; 271.07 fp (Undrafted)
15. (142) Brandon Jackson RB; 6 fantasy starts; 154.4 fp (Undrafted)

Looking Ahead at 2011
With the midseason acquisition of P Hillis RB (who is pulling fire trucks and other vehicles now) paired alongside D Brees QB, R C Smith has a solid foundation to begin to mold his next season's team's aspirations to attend the playoffs again. The sting of not entering the playoffs for the first time should drive him to have a good draft and build on what does exist as a strength. Hopefully he doesn't suffer catastrophic injury losses like he did in 2010.

My Best Guess at CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS's 2011 Keepers
Definitely D Brees QB and P Hillis RB will be kept. But who else is a worthy keeper? Maybe C Cooley TE? He seems the next best choice in my opinion and at a 10th Rd draft pick it appears to be a fair price but we have no idea who will be his QB with the Washington Redskins. If it is Rex Grossman then I doubt C Cooley is worth keeping. This would free up early draft picks to focus on other more vital positions. Another solid RB and WR in Rd 2 and 3 would go a long way in setting the stage to return to the playoffs. Building a team with some depth rather than no depth as in 2010 will also be indicative of whether or not CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS will advance in 2011. This is definitely a time to be sober about the future.

Brothers Keeper Third Party Consultant's Best Guess at CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS's 2011 Keepers
"I'm rolling with Brees, Hillis and would make [a] trade for [a WR]. I would prefer a #1 WR by the time his team is ready to come out of last place which would be in 2012-2013 season. He's gotta think long term and CLE is killing Hillis. The guy's a beast but every RB breaks down and last year was a huge jump in carries. I would offer Hillis for two players. I would try and get Jamal Charles and a pick in the first two Rds and try and grab AJ Green or Mark Ingram. This team has way too many holes but with a good draft next year he can be out of last place. The only thing I want to know from him is what did he do to [upset] the fantasy football gods cuz his draft was unbelievably bad."

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