Tuesday, June 21, 2011

Looking Ahead 2011: Kabuki Strikes Back

This is the second post of a series of blogs covering each team from the 2010 Brothers Keeper league in detail. We began with the last place team moving up to the top of the league standings as it stood at the end of the 2010 fantasy football season (c.f. CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS). Second up, Kabuki Strikes Back (J Fullerton).
Overview of J Fullerton's Brother's Keeper History
2007 RETURN OF KABUKI: 7-7-0 (2d Place) 1415.26 points; 9 transactions
2008 KABOOOOOOOKI: 6-7-0 (5th Place) 1202.07 points; 5 transactions
2009 Kabuki Strikes Back: 3-10-0 (10th Place) 1298.73 points; 8 transactions
2010 Kabuki Strikes Back: 6-7-0 (9th Place) 1380 points; 10 transactions

Kabuki Strikes Back's 2010 Keeper Declaration
As you'll see in the next section Kabuki Strikes Back has managed to keep multiple 1st Rd keepers in L Tomlinson RB and P Manning QB. With K Moreno RB kept in the 4th Rd, that left Kabuki with only 1 pick in the top 40 picks (or 1 in the top 20 if you subtract the keeper selections). This might be an advantageous choice if the 1st Rd keepers perform at or above their Ideal Draft Value. While K Moreno RB performed close to the Ideal Draft Value, P Manning QB, L Tomlinson RB, and M Crabtree WR did not. I totally understand the gamble with Tomlinson and Manning as they were greats of the previous generation of fantasy players. Even B Favre QB had a good year in 2009 right? However it wasn't as beneficial to go with the older aged players that early in the draft. P Manning performed equivalent to a 3d Rd value pick (according to his FPOB) but Tomlinson would have been more accurately selected in the 4th Rd not the 1st Rd. M Crabtree is an investment in the future. Hopefully he will begin to show fruit in his upcoming third NFL season in 2011.

Kabuki Strikes Back's 2010 Draft
Following the old Keeper League Draft Order Rule Kabuki Strikes Back (J Fullerton) had the 1st overall draft pick position in the 2010 draft due to his poor performance in 2009 (10th Place). His 2010 draft results are thus (noting those who were kept from his 2009 final roster with a This player is a keeper.):

1.(1)LaDainian Tomlinson This player is a keeper. (NYJ - RB)
1.(1)Peyton Manning This player is a keeper. (Ind - QB)
3.(21)Marques Colston (NO - WR)
4.(40)Knowshon Moreno This player is a keeper. (Den - RB)
5.(41)Joseph Addai (Ind - RB)
6.(60)Eli Manning (NYG - QB)
7.(61)Santonio Holmes (NYJ - WR)
8.(80)Michael Crabtree This player is a keeper. (SF - WR)
9.(81)John Carlson (Sea - TE)
10.(100)Chester Taylor (Chi - RB)
11.(101)Baltimore (Bal - DEF)
12.(120)Nate Kaeding (SD - K)
13.(121)Braylon Edwards (NYJ - WR)
14.(140)Donald Brown (Ind - RB)
15.(141)Early Doucet (Ari - WR)

Here's Kabuki Strikes Back's 2010 draft compared to the 2010 Brothers Keeper Fantasy Football Ideal Draft Value Chart results:

I don't think anyone could argue that Kabuki Strikes Back had a bad draft in 2010 (beyond the keeper selections). Only J Addai RB, J Carlson TE, C Taylor RB, D Brown RB, and E Doucet WR did poorly compared to their draft position. It may have been that no quality TE was still available to draft by the time J Carlson was selected in the 9th round. Taking a chance on C Taylor RB, D Brown RB, and E Doucet WR late in the draft seems acceptable too. They were after the 9th round. Anything after the 9th round would usually not be a normal starter anyhow (negative FPOB; below replacement level). Really, the only questionable pick would be J Addai RB in round 5. Kabuki Strikes Back had a very solid draft. It just appears to be a little too conservative as no pick stood out as a great pick exceeding their Ideal Draft Value by a large amount.

2010 End of Season Commentary
In 2009, J Fullerton's Kabuki Strikes Back never struck back. It was more like a strike out. So how did it go in 2010? No one bats 1.000 in the MLB. But a good record for any MLB team must be above .500 and Fullerton's team, though try as he might, didn't quite make it.

J Fullerton's Kabuki Strikes Back was defeated by Ghost 99.97 to 118.72 to begin 2010. C Palmer QB (27.7 FP) and D Clark TE (21 FP) dominated the fantasy game with solid performances by D Driver WR (12.5 FP), A Peterson RB (12.4 FP), and R Brown RB (15.5 FP) to take down P Manning 's huge day (41.32 FP). If only A Collie WR was picked up earlier and started by Kabuki he might have had a better chance to beat Ghost than he did (22.55 FP). P Manning just didn't have the supporting cast that he needed to beat Houston or to help Kabuki Strikes Back beat Ghost in fantasy play. Can a team so heavily dependent upon one man be great?

In the second week, while Kabuki Strikes Back beat Simba's Buttkicker!, R Johnson could have easily bested J Fullerton if he had started M Schaub QB (42.08 FP) and J Cribbs WR (13.6 FP) instead of M Vick QB (28.06 FP) and D McCluster WR (1.6 FP). But a win is a win and he moved right along to beat SOCIAL ISoTopes in week 3 and Yer X-MOM in week 4. Yer X-MOM had a bench with the ability to beat Kabuki Strikes Back as did R Johnson in week 2. Kabuki Strikes Back's 3 game winning streak came to an end when he faced TheSloppyButts but he could have extended his winning streak with a strong bench performance by M Crabtree (20.25 FP) and E Manning (27.78 FP). P Manning suffered only a 7.46 FP performance and A Collie only scored 7.4 FP. It really is important to sit and start the right players each week. Optimizing your performance earlier in the season gives you a greater chance to see the playoffs. So starting off the season with 4 wins and 2 losses definitely helped Kabuki out. In week 7 he narrowly was beaten (114.24 to 116.16). His entire bench save J Carlson was on a bye. He maxed out his fantasy points but was still beaten by CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS.

Feeling so Tanked
 Bouncing right back in week 8 Kabuki Strikes Back dominated Yankinfowlsandfeline who scored a season low 73.88 FP. Sitting at 5 wins and 3 losses definitely gave the appearance everything was all right for Kabuki Strikes Back as long as P Manning didn't really suffer too badly the rest of the season. But that's what happened. The next two weeks were low scoring losses by Kabuki thanks to low fantasy production by P Manning . In fact, counting those 2 weeks, Kabuki went the rest of the season losing 4 times and winning only once. The early successes led to late season losses and a miss of the fantasy playoffs. The only explanation was that P Manning suffered as did the others he played with in Indianapolis and on Kabuki Strikes Back. Had J Fullerton been able to exceed the Ideal Draft Value Chart rather than produce conservative results just below the Ideal Draft Value, maybe he could have won another game or two and keep a playoff spot.

In fact, it came down to the last regular fantasy season game. Ghost and Kabuki Strikes Back were tied in the standings with a 6 - 6 (.500 Pct) win - loss record. Ghost edged Kabuki by 22.08 FP to break the tie in standings and owned the playoff spot tentatively. He had yet to clinch it. Ghost either needed to win and Kabuki lose or if they both won Ghost needed to score enough FP to maintain a lead. However, Ghost lost to Redman's CatClippers in week 13 and Kabuki Strikes Back lost to Yer X-MOM. Ghost easily maintained his edge in FP to break the regular season winning percentage tie and thus claimed a spot in the playoffs. 
I was feeling so up!

Looking back at the regular season, Kabuki Strikes Back was only outscored by 40 FP on the season by his opponents on the year. That's a little over 3.07 FP average per week. With only 3 wins in the final 9 weeks you can't help but wonder how defeated that must have felt. The only thing he was motivated to do in the consolation bracket was to beat out CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS in the toilet bowl to avoid the embarrassment of last place. So he won that game (84.86 to 60.73).

Kabuki Strikes Back's Final 2010 Roster
Following the new Keeper League Draft Order, Kabuki Strikes Back, while failing to win in the initial game of the consolation bracket won the Toilet Bowl and staved off the humiliation of being a two time last place finisher. As such, while placing 9th in the standings, Kabuki Strikes Back will actually have the 4th pick draft position in the upcoming 2011 Brothers Keeper fantasy football draft. I have included the upcoming 2011 draft round and pick number (overall pick is in parentheses) of each player on Kabuki Strikes Back's final roster followed by the name of the player, player's position, any 1st Rd Keeper Value players, total # of fantasy starts for the season (a * indicates developmental eligibility for 2011's draft; some players were on more than one team but their total starts for all teams is listed); and total fantasy points scored by the player for the 16 fantasy week season (which is not subject to the # of starts):

1. (4) Peyton Manning QB (1st Rd Keeper Value); 12 fantasy starts; 389.8 fp
1. (4) LaDainian Tomlinson RB (1st Rd Keeper Value); 11 fantasy starts; 197.8 fp
2. (17)
3. (24) Knowshon Moreno RB; 8 fantasy starts; 177.5 fp
3. (24) Marques Colston WR; 12 fantasy starts; 177.25 fp
4. (37)
5. (44) Ricky Williams RB; 8 fantasy starts; 107.35 fp
5. (44) Joseph Addai RB; 6 fantasy starts; 96.7 fp
6. (57) Eli Manning QB; 1* fantasy starts; 315.08 fp
7. (64) Michael Crabtree WR; 3* fantasy starts; 128.05 fp
8. (77)
9. (84) John Carlson TE; 8 fantasy starts; 52.9 fp
10. (97)
11. (104) Baltimore DEF; 11 fantasy starts; 129 fp
12. (117)
13. (124) Braylon Edwards WR; 8 fantasy starts; 140.6 fp
13. (124) Jeremy Shockey TE; 5 fantasy starts; 79.4 fp
14. (137)
15. (144) Billy Cundiff K; 5 fantasy starts (1 with Yer X-MOM and 4 with Kabuki Strikes Back); 121 fp (Undrafted)
15. (144) Jason Snelling RB; 1* fantasy starts; 121.55 fp (Undrafted)
15. (144) Roy Williams WR; 8 fantasy starts; 91.5 fp (Undrafted)

Looking Ahead at 2011
Will he break out in year 3?
J Fullerton is in a tough position with Kabuki Strikes Back. He can be competitive in 2011 under good circumstances or he can be mediocre. Not bad but probably not great. The position he is in, if he were to keep his best QB, RB, and WR combination (P Manning QB, K Moreno RB [who is under pressure from his GM], and M Colston WR), he would not have a pick until the 37th overall pick. Then the debate becomes whether or not to keep E Manning QB or M Crabtree WR as his developmental eligible keepers. I like them both but he will need another WR if he selects a RB in Rd 3 or 4. It just depends on who Kabuki wants to keep. Obviously they are both productive and are both only a single Rd in value away from each other. E Manning could be good trade fodder. Plus, if he wanted to forgo keeping P Manning in the 1st Rd he could keep E Manning at a good value too. But that leaves him open to letting another stellar team with a higher draft pick with the chance to gain a solid QB. Some of those teams are only a QB away from winning the 2011 Championship too. Regardless of who is kept, J Fullerton needs to score big on some draft picks who will exceed the 2011 Ideal Draft Value Chart later in the draft.

My Best Guess at Kabuki Strikes Back's 2011 Keepers
P Manning QB, K Moreno RB, M Colston WR, and M Crabtree WR as the developmental eligible choice. This makes the most sense. This means he has the potential to be a playoff team again and not need to rebuild yet. If one were inclined to give up a WR (either Colston or Crabtree ) for E Manning , it leaves a glaring hole needing to be filled at WR and RB instead of just at RB if he passed on E Manning with so few early picks to do so. Personally I might try to trade P Manning for future potential. However, people might  not be willing to pay if the asking price is unrealistically high.
Brothers Keeper Third Party Consultant's Best Guess at Kabuki Strikes Back's 2011 Keepers
"I think he'll keep Peyton. Well he really has to keep him. He really is the only guy on his roster that would most likely be drafted in the Rd that he's kept in. Colston should be kept as well. He's not worth a 3d Rd pick. I would think all the other top WRs are going to be keepers on other teams. Everyone else should be thrown back and not drafted or redrafted about 5 rounds later than their keeper value. Crabtree might seem like a nice keeper who might have a decent year but 12th Rd would be a better fit for him until he gets a proven QB under center cuz Smith is garbage.

"I like Moreno but not in the 3d Rd. I think he'll still be able to draft him in the 6th or 7th Rd. He's got talent and John Fox likes to run. But Deangelo Williams might be a Bronco in a couple months and that should be something he should be watching as soon as FAs can sign. I think Moreno is more like top 60 if he's not splitting time in Denver. If you can only start 2 RBs and one is Moreno then your RBs are a weakness Moreno is a guy that maybe avg's about 7-9 points. That's low for a starting fantasy RB. Plus his past injuries are bad also. At the flex RB/WR he's worth keeping but for a 3d Rd pick I would still probably say no just cuz I would imagine guys like SJax, Ronnie Brown, Shonne Green, Ryan Mathews and probably DWill will still be available."

No comments:

Post a Comment