Tuesday, July 16, 2013

2013 Pre-Keeper Values: Get Your Thinking Cap On!


Decisions. Decisions. With the countdown to the Brothers Keeper declaration date marching ever closer (date TBD) we have to weigh the values of or final 2012 rosters for the upcoming season. Who will we keep? Who will we throw away?

Every year owners struggle tremendously with this and this year is no different. If it isn't difficult, that means your team has no depth of talent! And that's okay, because you won't have the anguish others will feel for throwing players into the draft pool. Therefore it would be beneficial to the league to post the keeper values for each team's final roster from 2012.

This is has been done in the past on a team by team basis when I post reviews for each team. Last year I had less time and therefore made it just one post with less commentary. This year will be the same. If you are unable to see the values for your team please consult the Yahoo page for your team last year and do your own calculations. You can see some information there and on previous posts here.

I will review the information to see if it is correct. If you see anything that is incorrect please let me know and I will look into it and fix it if need be. However, in my estimate it is pretty accurate.

This year I have the information to know who is and who is not developmental so be sure to review it. If you think a player should be developmental but I don't list them as developmental, please consult the Canons (section II. B.) as some players may have been started on another fantasy team last year and those starts were included in my calculations.

Please log in to the league if you have yet to do so. We will need to nail down a draft date, time, and location. I hope you have a good offseason and wish you all the best as we stare down the beginning of league year activities.

Here is the link to the spreadsheet. From there you might be able to sort the information by team to see your team more succinctly. Otherwise, you also have the visual below.

Please be reminded that if you keep two 1st Round Keepers you will not have a second round pick. Also remember that if you keep two or more from the same round after the 1st round you will need to select a player to move up a round. For instance, one year Yer X-MOM kept two folks who were a 10th round pick. The owner had to choose which player became a 9th round pick from those two. So be sure to indicate this to the Commissioner when you report your keeper selections to him.

If a player was a keeper last year he will move up a round if kept again this year. This reflected in the chart below. The value of players you did not draft but were drafted by another team in 2012 are also reflected in the chart. Please feel free to ask the League Historian or the Commissioner about any clarifications of the Brothers Keeper Canons you may need help with.

Please see below this chart for my best guess on each team's keepers! It is back by popular demand yet without commentary.



My Best Guess at Each Team's 2013 Keepers
Please remember these are my guesses as to what will be done. Not my recommendation on what should be done or what I think is best. I could be way off.

ThePunchin Munchkins (M Peltonen)
Robert Griffin III QB Rd 7, Julio Jones WR Rd 2, M Forte RB Rd 1 and D Moore WR Rd 15 as the developmental eligible keeper.

Holy Smoke (R Johnson)
C Newton QB Rd 14, R White WR Rd 1, V Jackson WR Rd 4 and T Smith WR Rd 7 as developmental. If he doesn't keep V Jackson then he'll keep F Gore.

Yer X-MOM (P Smith)
C Johnson RB Rd 11, A Foster RB Rd 3, M Lynch RB Rd 7, and maybe no one as developmental.

Points ON the Bench (D Kessler)
D Brees QB Rd 1, A Morris Rb Rd 15, and a toss up between C.J. Spiller RB Rd 9 and D Thomas WR Rd 6 for the final keeper spot. If P Thomas RB Rd 8 is kept as developmental eligible then maybe D Thomas WR is kept instead of CJ Spiller RB.

MOTHERSHIP RUSH (R C Smith)
S Smith (Car) WR Rd 14, W Welker WR Rd 4, and P Manning QB Rd 2, and maybe L Blount RB Rd 15 as developmental eligible.

Rmmm's Golden Eagle (D Pilcher)
Rmmm is my pick to go to the championship this year. He'll need D Martin RB Rd 3, D Bryant Rd 7, and T Brady QB Rd 1 or J Graham TE Rd 7 to do do it. D Wilson RB Rd 8 is my guess for his developmental. If he forgoes keeping T Brady he could keep T Romo QB Rd 7 as a developmental instead. M Ingram is also a developmental possibility.

Forever Tide (M Mohler)
V Cruz WR Rd 13, R Gronkowski TE Rd 6, and R Mathews RB Rd 4 will probably be the standard keepers. R Wilson QB Rd 15, C Palmer QB Rd 15, and D Richardson RB Rd 15 all make for interesting choices for developmental eligibility. With L Fitzgerald happy in Arizona, C Palmer is my pick.

Yankinfowlsandfeline (J Smith)
A Rodgers QB Rd 8, T Richardson RB Rd 2, and M Jones-Drew RB Rd 1. James Jones WR Rd 15 makes the most sense as a developmental eligible keeper.

TheSloppyButts (M R Smith)
R Rice RB Rd 1, L McCoy RB Rd 1, and J Charles RB Rd 12 seem pretty clear as normal keepers unless A.J. Green WR Rd 10 and E Decker WR Rd 6 are kept instead. C Kaepernick QB Rd 15 will probably be the developmental eligible keeper.

Ghost (B Garner)
R Wayne WR Rd 6, Cal Johnson WR Rd 1, and A Peterson RB Rd 1, with A Luck QB Rd 12 as the developmental eligible keeper.

Thursday, July 11, 2013

A Fantasy Football Draft Value Chart Update: 2012

On July 31, 2010 I published one of my most popular posts in the broader fantasy football arena: Building a Fantasy Football Draft Value Chart has shown up high on multiple search engines queries and has been viewed numerous times according to Google Analytics. Another popular post has been Do Bookends Rule? A Study on the Value of Draft Slots/Positions in a Snake Draft. That study could only have been produced on the heels of it's predecessor (Building a Fantasy Football Draft Value Chart). The methodology is still the same as in 2010's update which was employed again in 2011's update. However, don't be fooled, there are others using my work for their leagues now as well. There is value for those who know what it is trying to convey. Be sure to tailor any draft value chart for your fantasy football league's rules and scoring.

Review and Baselines
I have built an Ideal Fantasy Football Draft Value Chart that is league specific in order to place a numeric value on every draft pick in the fantasy football draft according to the Brothers Keeper scoring settings. In order to eradicate human errors in the actual fantasy football drafts, the Brothers Keeper Ideal Fantasy Football Draft Value chart provides us with the an educated estimate of the perfect market efficiency value of each draft pick. Instead of utilizing straight fantasy points, I have utilized fantasy points over baseline (FPOB) in order to evaluate the players from different positions equally. The baselines from years past are as follows:

Baselines of Overall Performance For Each Year:

2006
10th Ranked QB = 240.3 fantasy points
50th Ranked RB/WR = 148.9 fantasy points
10th Ranked TE = 112 fantasy points
10th Ranked K = 118 fantasy points
10th Ranked DEF = 139 fantasy points

2007
10th Ranked QB = 281.18 fantasy points
50th Ranked RB/WR = 150.8 fantasy points
10th Ranked TE = 106.55 fantasy points
10th Ranked K = 127 fantasy points
10th Ranked DEF = 146 fantasy points

2008
10th Ranked QB = 266.32 fantasy points
50th Ranked RB/WR = 163.28 fantasy points
10th Ranked TE = 100.9 fantasy points
10th Ranked K = 129 fantasy points
10th Ranked DEF =142 fantasy points

2009
10th Ranked QB = 304.34 fantasy points
50th Ranked RB/WR = 155.65 fantasy points
10th Ranked TE = 138.6 fantasy points
10th Ranked K = 122 fantasy points
10th Ranked DEF = 137 fantasy points

2010
10th Ranked QB = 313.44 fantasy points
50th Ranked RB/WR = 153.88 fantasy points
10th Ranked TE = 124.25 fantasy points
10th Ranked K = 120 fantasy points
10th Ranked DEF = 131 fantasy points

2011
10th Ranked QB = 303.26 fantasy points
50th Ranked RB/WR = 149.65 fantasy points
10th Ranked TE = 133.75 fantasy points
10th Ranked K = 135 fantasy points
10th Ranked DEF = 136 fantasy points

Now that the 2012 fantasy football season is complete, the 2012 baselines can now be added:

2012
10th Ranked QB = 351.46 fantasy points
50th Ranked RB/WR = 143.55 fantasy points
10th Ranked TE = 133.68 fantasy points
10th Ranked K = 135 fantasy points
10th Ranked DEF = 151 fantasy points

As you should notice, the baselines did not differ wildly from those of the previous 3 seasons for WR/RBs, TE, K, and DEF. It did increase for QBs. For those interested here is the 7 year average of those baselines:

7 Year Avg
10th Ranked QB = 344.54 fantasy points
50th Ranked RB/WR = 172.75 fantasy points
10th Ranked TE = 140.49 fantasy points
10th Ranked K = 145.86 fantasy points
10th Ranked DEF = 161.86 fantasy points

Brothers Keeper Ideal Fantasy Football Draft Value Chart
Below is the post 2012 Brothers Keeper Ideal Fantasy Football Draft Value Chart. The first column is the round each pick is made in. The second column is the individual team's draft position for a snake draft. The third column is the overall pick number. The next five columns detail each season's Ideal Draft Value for each pick from 2006 - 2012 (One Louder!).


The 2010 Amendment to Consider
Now that you can see the 2012 update we need to revisit some Brothers Keeper history. The inaugural season of this keeper league was 2007. As you should recall, it utilized the full 17 weeks of the NFL regular season in order to complete the playoffs. As such the 2006 and 2007 FPOB numbers are actually skewed higher because the fantasy point totals involved actually reflect an extra week of fantasy point production compared to the 2008 - 2012 fantasy seasons. In order to make the Brothers Keeper Ideal Fantasy Football Draft Value Chart more accurate I have added a preferred colored column to it that reflects the average FPOB from 2008 - 2012 since we have only used 16 weeks of the regular NFL season to complete our fantasy football playoffs (cf. I. League Settings). Therefore the 5 Year Average does not include the 17 week skewed FPOB from 2006 - 2007. For your consideration the difference between the 5 Year Average and the 7 Year Average is small after the first round as indicated in the far right column titled Difference.

If you think the 5 Year Average of the FPOB from 2008 - 2012 is better, then take a look at the 5 Year Average of the baselines from those years:

5 Year Avg
10th Ranked QB = 307.76 fantasy points
50th Ranked RB/WR = 153.20 fantasy points
10th Ranked TE = 126.24 fantasy points
10th Ranked K = 128.2 fantasy points
10th Ranked DEF = 139.4 fantasy points

Here, then, is the 2012 update to the visual graph of the Brothers Keeper Ideal Fantasy Football Draft Value Chart:


For those who would like to visually see the difference between the 5 Year Average and the 7 Year Average see the following graph:


Now that we have the 2012 update completed we can proceed with better research in the upcoming blogs. I will refer to the Brothers Keeper Ideal Fantasy Football Draft Value Chart often. This should also aid competitors when valuing draft picks in any potential trade. May you enjoy your fantasy football offseason as the 2013 season begins to near!