Tuesday, December 21, 2010

The 2010 Quarterfinal and Semifinal Results

Week 14
What an excellent Quarterfinals! 2010 has not been a disappointment on the competition front. 2009 was not a disappointment either. Glad to see the fierce bouts to survive have continued steadfast.

(3) SOCIAL ISoTopes 124.18
(6) Ghost 128.14

Of the two Quarterfinal games, the #3 SOCIAL ISoTopes v #6 Ghost was the closest. Ghost won by 3.96 FP. The final score 124.18 to 128.14. Just a sit/start away from winning too. If M Peltonen benched M Austin WR or B Lloyd WR for D Amendola WR or R Torain RB he would have had enough to usurp Ghost's attempt at playoff glory. As they say, hindsight is 20/20.

(4) Yer X-MOM 142.18
(5) Redmans CatClippers 129.46

The other Quarterfinal matchup was just as close. At the end of Sunday night's games 2009 Brothers Keeper Champion Yer X-MOM was down by a total of 52.43 FP to Redmans CatClippers 129.46 FP. Yer X-MOM had three players playing on Monday night who would have to do spectacular. A Johnson WR and A Foster RB were up against a stout Baltimore Raven Defense while D Mason WR, having an unspectacular year, played on the other side of the ball. It was going to be tough until D Mason over performed with 2 TDs. The 1st half was very slow for Houston's offense but the 2d half saw them awake to tie Baltimore's extensive lead late in the game to force overtime. Overtime wasn't even needed by Yer X-MOM for A Johnson WR ( FP), A Foster RB ( FP), and D Mason WR ( FP) combined to produce 61.15 FPs for the fantasy playoff game win. What a come from behind victory over a very formidable opponent in D Pilcher's Redmans CatClippers.

Week 15
The Semifinal matchups pitted the remaining titans against one another with the following results (see 2009's results if you'd like to reminisce):

(1) Yankinfowlsandfeline 121.87
(4) Yer X-MOM 134.21

This matchup was neck and neck all Sunday afternoon with J Smith's Yankinfowlsandfeline gaining and keeping a slight edge mostly. Late in the afternoon Yer X-MOM began to pull ahead thanks to a defensive TD from Atlanta and several other TDs. The sizable lead was maintained by the end of the night with despite the Sunday night game between New England's kicker S Graham and Green Bay's #1 WR G Jennings efforts. The real story was before the slate on Sunday's games even began. Each of Yankinfowlsandfeline's top fantasy producers failed to either show up to play due to injuries (A Rodgers Qb and K Orton QB) or lackluster performance (M Jones-Drew RB only scored 7.7 FP from 46 yards on 11 carries after having 6 straight weeks of 100 yards rushing). T Tebow QB made his NFL and fantasy debut and performed reasonably well in place of K Orton QB and A Rodgers QB as an early Sunday morning waiver wire free agent pick up by scoring 25.32 FPs. Well done. I couldn't imagine a better QB pickup that late off of free agency unless you knew R Grossman QB was going to score 37.78 FPs. Not even Yankinfowlsandfeline's optimal lineup subbing J Maclin WR (19.98 FP) in for G Jennings WR (11.4 FP) would have been enough to win (giving J Smith a total of 130.45 FPs). Yer X-MOM's players performed just a little bit better to gain a second consecutive championship appearance.

(6) Ghost 76.79
(2) TheSloppyButts 131.45

After eeking out a victory the previous week, Ghost's players just flopped. Week 14 must have been too hard on them. This was quite an embarrassment since in this writer's opinion, B Garner's lineup had much more favorable matchups against weak defenses than did M R Smith's players. In fact, some of TheSloppyButts's players did way better than they had been doing most of the season (e.g., R Rice RB 36.30 FPs). It is hard to know how to respond to a 45.34 FP loss on the big stage other than to say Ghost's disappointment in not attaining a championship must be frustrating. Don't Ghost always have sad faces?
On a side note, M Peltonen's SOCIAL ISoTopes scored a whopping 150.92 FPs in week 15. If he had not slipped out of a first round bye the last game of the regular season he would have had a second consecutive championship appearance easily beating any of the 4 Semifinalist teams. The snowball effect of that last regular season loss and the poor sit/start in week 14's Quarterfinal as noted above has made all the difference.
Two fantasy football juggernauts remain in the playoffs. The 2010 Brothers Keeper 4 Fantasy Football Championship game will pit the #4 seed P Smith's Yer X-MOM versus the #2 seed M R Smith's TheSloppyButts. Let's hope to for an exciting finish over week 16's Christmas weekend! Good Luck. Your trophy awaits!

Tuesday, December 7, 2010

Final 2010 Brothers Keeper 4 Regular Season Standings

After 13 weeks of competitive play, the end of the regular fantasy football season has arrived. It gives way to the new 6 team playoff format. So let's check in on the end of the regular season standings:

The Quarterfinal Playoff Matchups are as follows (according to the New Playoff Format):

1) Yankinfowlsandfeline

(4) Yer X-MOM
(5) Redmans CatClippers

(3) SOCIAL ISoTopes
(6) Ghost0.00

(2) TheSloppyButts

Good luck to those in the playoffs.

For those who did not make the playoffs there is a 2 week Consolation Bracket that will begin next week (Week 15):

(7) Kabuki Strikes Back

(10) Simba's Buttkicker!
11th Seed

(9) Points ON the Bench
12th Seed


I can just hear Jim Mora now.

Thursday, November 11, 2010

Will the NFL Play in 2011? Lockout on the Web

If you are interested in following information regarding the expiration of the collective bargaining agreement take a look at a website that is tracking some information on this subject: http://nfllockout.com/

Thursday, October 28, 2010

Update: The Canons of Brothers Keeper Fantasy Football League

Two major changes to the The Canons of Brothers Keeper Fantasy Football League have been made.

1. On October 3, 2010 the Commissioner changed the playoff format from an 8 team 3 week playoff (week 14, 15, and 16) to a 6 team 3 week playoff (week 14, 15, and 16). Please be aware of this update as it is effective immediately for the 2010 fantasy season and playoffs.

2. On October 13, 2010 the trade deadline has also been modified by the Commissioner for the 2010 fantasy season. It has been changed from November 12, 2010 to December 3, 2010. This allows for an extra 3 weeks of possible trades.

I have also updated the team information to reflect new fantasy team names being utilized this year.

"It is Bad Luck to be Superstitious" and Other Stupid Statements

Someone finally did it. They finally codified the fantasy hexes that plague fantasydom week in and week out.

Why Your Fantasy Football Team Is Jinxed

Maybe this explains the trash talking silence this year. Hope you enjoy.

Tuesday, October 12, 2010

Confessions of an NFL Agent's Attempt to "Do What is Best for [Him] and [His] Family"

I'm sorry, but I am beginning to abhor a lot of the middle men in this world. Health Insurance companies get paid tons and all they do is line their pockets thus killing the natural laws of supply and demand between the patients in need of medical attention and doctors providing services. The doctors and the patients lose out financially. Same goes with auto insurance companies handling of claims toward auto mechanics and body shops. There are middle men everywhere trying to make a living by snaking money from a truer transaction between two parties. Sports agents are the worse... or they are getting worse... I doubt they can have the impact that health insurance companies have.

Josh Luchs tells all in the latest Sports Illustrated magazine. It's an intriguing story. It is a gut wrenching story. It is one that is begging to make me sick. I'm not an NCAA football fan nor am I one who is bothered by the materials that point out rule breaking in the College football scene. I'm ok if players get paid. They work hard. I'm ok if schools and professional sports teams get paid. They directly provide entertainment.

What makes me sick is that this sob story is an attempt to make one sympathetic toward a sports agent. I am sorry but sports agents are a middle man that harms the fan and sport. Just look at Scot Boras's clients and how much they get paid in the MLB. It is ridiculous. Outright astonishing. One beer costs $7 at a game where the ticket to sit and watch costs $15 in a cheap section. A $7 beer is stupid. So is a $7 nasty burger that tastes fishy. Sports consumers line the pockets of sports agents. Not their clients. Who pays the clients? The owners do. Who pays the owners? The fan.

Pure and simple I'm done with sympathizing for middle men who are telling their sob stories so they can "do what is best for me and my family." How selfish. Don't fall for the trap. They're ruining the fan experience when folks like V Jackson WR sit for a season. They are ruining it when your favored pitcher leaves to pitch for the dreaded arch rival NY Yankees (yes you Mike Mussina!). It's not good for the fan's wallets either. Think about it before you think about what to think of Josh Luchs and any other sports agents for that matter.

10/13/10 UPDATE: Jack Bechta, an informative agent himself, has a column at National Football Post discussing Luch's SI.com article.

Thursday, September 30, 2010

Does Brothers Keeper Deserve a Developmental League?

MLB has the Minor Leagues. The NFL has the NCAA, UFL, and the CFL. Does the success and competitiveness of Brothers Keeper require a developmental league? Should we give potential players the chance to see what the league format and scoring settings are before actually committing to a full season or more of Brothers Keeper Fantasy Football? Building a keeper team on the tails of someone else's successes or failures could be quite the challenge.

Should it be required for one who wishes to be invited to Brothers Keeper to serve time in a Developmental Brothers Keeper League before being asked to join Brothers Keeper? This could help ensure that any potential league owner is the right fit for established vetrans of Brothers Keeper and for the potential intiate. The potential league owner may not be up to the challenge of owning an expansion team and building a dynasty from scratch or taking a team over after someone exits the league. In order to eliminate league and new owner stressors, should a Developmental Brothers Keeper League be built?

Crash Davis has some advice for anyone wishing to be in the Developmental Brothers Keeper League: "Relax, all right? Don't try to strike everybody out. Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic."

Thanks Crash.

Monday, September 27, 2010

Pardon this Baseball Interruption

Again, we have a unique entry for a completely different sport. The 2010 MLB season is almost complete. In rare form, Ken Burns has produced a sequel to his famous Baseball documentary: Baseball: The Tenth Inning which airs on PBS stations across the country beginning tomorrow night at 7 PM CDT. It will air for 2 hours on two consecutive nights, September 28th and 29th, for a total of 4 hours.

I am particularly interested in the 2001 World Series, Cal Ripken Jr., and other story lines from the era of baseball I have grown up with. This film will probably appeal to those 35 and younger more than those who are older because it covers their baseball memory from the 1990s to the present day.

So if you have a chance, either watch it live, DVR it, or break out the old time VHS.

Monday, September 20, 2010

Icing the Kicker

There are chokers in this world....and even if he's a choker, and the place kicker was certainly that--quite possibly the biggest choker in the NFL... which would place him high in the runnin' for biggest choker worldwide--but sometimes there's a place kicker... sometimes there's a place kicker. Wal, I lost m'train of thought here. But--aw hell, I done innerduced it enough.

Week 2 saw a ton of NFL games and perhaps a few fantasy games decided by kickers. Kickers who kicked 5 FGs to win and those who missed FGs to make their teams suffer losses. Perhaps your kicker was iced into a loss (e.g., Graham Gano).

Someone finally did it. They confirmed what we hate to know... and believe me, as a viewer of this sort of non-sense, it's kind of botherin' to think that the bad habit of Icing the Kicker by NFL head coaches is being validated with statistics. Thanks a lot University of San Diego.

Wednesday, September 15, 2010

Unsolisited Advice From an Injured Guy: Conclusion: "Hang in There"

There's a lot that happens in a single week of NFL play these days. This directly impacts the fantasy season one way or another. Either your guy was injured or you picked up an injured guy's replacement or you are finally ready to trade your entire team to the competition. Perhaps you want to call out your fantasy players and tell them, "Be a man!" Slap 'em around a little and make your fantasy team #1 priority in their lives. Totally understandable. You're probably not the first. The NFL just doesn't play out the way you'd like it to work out. It is out of your maniacal control and you just don't think you can keep it together any more.

It is also National Jump to Conclusion Week too. Tom Smykowski: "It was a 'Jump to Conclusions' mat. You see, it would be this mat that you would put on the floor... and would have different CONCLUSIONS written on it that you could... JUMP TO."

Maybe we also need the rest of Tom Smykowski's advice to Peter: "Just remember If you hang in there long enough, good things can happen. I mean, look at me!"

How ironic that a near fatal car accident can be considered "good things." Fantasy football might not be Office Space, but it is a test to see if you are looking long or short term. The moves that do or do not transpire now can either make you or break you. So with that in mind, take a look at a few pieces of help out there available to us for free because even if week one was akin to a car wreck, "good things can happen. I mean, look at me!"

Maybe you benched H Nicks WR on his 3 YD day (ahem: Yankinfowlsandfeline). If so, maybe you need some better sit/start advice. So take a quick look at FantasyPros first week's accuracy results of the experts sit/start advice (yes that is two separate links; one for the results in statistics and one in a commentary format).

If you're ready to play the waiver wire or make a trade take a gander at these trade analyzer tools:
KFFL's Player Trade Analyzer
FantasySP's NFL Trade Analyzer
DynastyGuys Trade Analyzer

Wednesday, September 8, 2010

A Fantasy Football Addict's Handy Dandy Tools

The draft is over. All the anticipation from the draft has been eliminated from your system. Time to sit back and relax right? Right? Let the games begin (this Thursday!) right? Wrong. Now it is time for team management to the extreme for that competitive edge. For 16 weeks of football goodness you need to be on top of every piece of pertinent fantasy football information you can get your hands on. Everything from injuries to sit/start advice and the like should drive you to be like this guy, only for Brothers Keeper.

So let me point you to a few easy tools you might want to utilize in order to make it through your fantasy season. You ever wish you could remember if a player is on your team in one of your leagues? You ever wish you knew if a particular player is an available free agent instantly? What if you wanted to know all of this for all of your fantasy teams/leagues without having to scour each league's player search every time. Have no fear there is a perfectly easy way to get all of this information quickly and efficiently.

There is a pretty cool add on to your preferred web browser that will be helpful for your fantasy football season that I tried out this weekend. It's called Pickemfirst. It is free and easy to download and install. Once installed log in to the Pickemfirst website and set up access to all of your fantasy football teams (or other fantasy sports teams too if you'd like). It will only take 2 minutes tops to do all of this and then check out your first page of player rankings to see it's awesomeness. Once you get to a new page of rankings simply do a Shift + F on your keyboard and you'll see the results. The little colored boxes next to all of the players indicates whether they are on your team, someone else's team, or a free agent. Click on the colored box to see the multiple leagues/teams you have and the status for that player in each league. Such a simple tool never made life so easy before for the fantasy football player. Get it today.

If you'd like to know more about it look at the very short video describing what it does:

See it's awesomeness now?

So what games do you get to see on TV this week? Well, check out the506.com's NFL TV Distribution Maps for the answer.
Ok. Before the draft, Fantasy Football Calculator's Average Draft Position tool might have helped you. Now, I'll let you see it since the draft is completed. It basically allows you to create an instant graph of a player's ADP over the preseason mock drafts to see if a player's value is rising or dropping. You can select the league size and scoring method to narrow your research too.

Another pre-draft help would have been CBSSports.com's Fantasy Football 2010 Power Projector. The tool is nice enough to let you see Accuscore's information for free. Kind of nice since Accuscore's information looks incredibly expensive.

CBSSports.com has another handy pre-draft tool called the 2010 Running Back Selector (Projected Stats).

Another CBSSports.com tool is their Individual Defensive Matchup Tracker.

Sorry for all the post-draft tools being given. Here's a free Rate My Team utility by Footballguys.com to take a look at what they think of your squad.

Footballguys.com also has the best most updated depth chart for every team on one succinct page. Definitely the most handy depth chart I've seen.

9/10/10 UPDATE: Check out this cool tool by the folks at FantasyPros.com which will point you to experts opinions after you enter in the names of two players who you might want to sit or start.

So let's check out a powerful search engine one should figure out how to learn to harness for fantasy football purposes. Try to figure out supertrackr where you can track anything on the internet in real time. I was first made aware of this tool from either a tweet or a blog by Mark Cuban. I haven't had enough time to fiddle around with it but it seems powerful and helpful to the competitive fantasy football nut who wants instant information about their fantasy football team's players. I feel like it would be akin to streamlining coffee through an IV in the morning. Something we'll all need this fantasy season.

10/28/10 UPDATE: http://numberfire.com/

Wednesday, September 1, 2010

2010 Brothers Keeper 4 Draft Results

The draft day came and all were in attendance except for D Pilcher, J Fullerton, and P Smith. The first half of the draft took only 1 hour before an emergency call came thus pausing the draft for nearly 24 hours. The second half of the draft was completed online via the Yahoo! League Message Board (and is still in progress).

The results are thus:

Good luck to all of the Brothers Keeper participants on the upcoming season.

Thursday, August 26, 2010

Final 2010 Fantasy Football Draft Prep: Don't Forget Conventional Wisdom

Pre-Draft Thoughts
My mind has been consumed by the upcoming Brothers Keeper fantasy draft. Should I or shouldn't I go and be there in person?

Who should I take out of these three players in my first pick? I know the two I don't draft won't be there when it comes back to my next pick.

What will each team in Brothers Keeper do with their picks when it is their turn? How can I predict their choices?

I've put together huge spreadsheets of information to try to figure these answers out. I've listed all the pros and cons for going or not going. I'm a wreck. I haven't slept more than 6 or 6.5 hours in a couple weeks. Okay, maybe last night I finally broke the 2 week trend, but still, it was a long time. I read the news I frequent but am neglecting other helpful items like Twitter. I am behind on other things I want to read too. I have other projects in mind for this blog that are being neglected and it all seems overwhelming considering I want to kill in this upcoming draft on Saturday. I'm 46 hours away from draft time and I know I don't have enough time to get all that I want prepped accomplished.

Just breathe man... just breathe.

Here's to Breathing
Draft time and location? Check. Driving directions? Check. Draft pick number? Check. Food? Check. Keeper draft order list? Check. The fantasy cheat sheet of choice? Check. Strategy to annoy leaguemates? Check.

You know the drill. You've been there. Done that. You've got your trophies and rings and bragging rights. So how did you get them? You prepared like there was no tomorrow. You read every fantasy magazine you could get your paws on. You scanned every free cheat sheet you could find on the inter webs. You know the experts advice like the back of your hand. You've mock drafted in every format available. Then you watched every meaningful preseason snap on DVR. You're up to date on all the Hard Knocks episodes. You're ready. It's ingrained in you deep ready to spill out on draft day. You can make it 46 hours.

"But wait! I forgot to look at who are the 3d year breakout WR candidates!? Which player is in a contract year playing his heart out for millions of dollars in the future!? Gasp! Who is injured!?"

Have no fear. There are websites that have these bastions of conventional fantasy football wisdom listed for free:

Here's your 3rd year NFL Wide Receivers, Latest NFL Injury Reports and News: Offensive Players , and 2010 Contract Year Players / 2010 Free Agents compliments of FFToolbox.com. May your panic subside and your studies continue. See also CBSSports.com's 2010 Draft Prep: The class of third-year receivers.

Now if you are D Pilcher of the Redman fantasy brand, you need to find yourself a good free fantasy football cheat sheet in order to stop pestering your leaguemates with the phrase, "Is _____ ____ a good player?" We know you need some help. Just pick a cheat sheet, print it out and go with it... and get some red sunburn so we aren't blinded when you wear shorts to the draft. Otherwise we'll be tempted to give you a cheatsheet from 3 years ago and suggest that Ryan Succuop is an awesome sleeper.

It is always good to review The Canons of Brothers Keeper too. But maybe that can wait till after the draft.

Que up the music. Make sure the A/C is on int he ECL room and keep in touch with this blog and League Message Board for the finalized draft day announcements.

Thursday, August 19, 2010

Who's Fantasy Football Sit/Start Advice Should You Follow? Weekly Lineup/Rankings Accuracy

Question: Who produces the most accurate fantasy football projections on a weekly basis during the fantasy season?

One of the cool things about the internet is that you get to see the hard work of others who do what you'd like to see results for but know you'd never have the time or resources to do for yourself. FantasyPros.com has done the fantasy football industry and fantasy players alike a tremendous job of collating the 2009 weekly rankings of industry experts, analyzing them (Accuracy Methodology), and then generating an Expert Accuracy Rankings – 2009 (cf. also their PAY™ [Prediction Accuracy Yield] Accuracy Scores). This work should be a valuable help when digesting which advice you might want to employ when considering disagreements and dilemmas in your sit/starts throughout the year. While this is an analysis of last year's weekly projections/forecasting, this year could potentially yield different results. We cannot evaluate future performance before it has happened! But you might be able to determine which voice among the experts you trust more.

Sunday, August 15, 2010

Brothers Keeper 4 (2010) Fantasy Football Draft Information

The 2010 NFL season kicks off when the World Champion New Orleans Saints hosts the Minnesota Vikings on Thursday September 9th at 7:30 PM CST.

Monday, September 6th, is Labor Day. Also known as the final day for fantasy football drafts. Information for the 2010 Brothers Keeper Fantasy Football draft can be found here:

Date: Saturday, August 28, 2010

Time: TBD (between 4:00 PM and 5:00 PM? CDT)

Place: Grace Memorial Baptist Church (in the ECL room; not the fellowship hall due to elections)
           58516 Pearl Acres Road
           Slidell, LA 70461-5422

View Larger Map

A couple of considerations. Due to elections, note that the location is not the Fellowship Hall as it was last time. It is in the ECL room (Early Learning Center).

Internet access will be available at the draft location I plan to be there via Skype or Google video chat if I am unable to attend in person (TBD). If you also Skype, please email me and let me know if you'd have a computer/laptop available to use for this purpose. If not, please let me know if someone is available to IM during the draft to communicate picks. I'd be very grateful for anyone's assistance in this regard. I can also set it up so that the Commissioner has live access to the 2010 Pre-Draft Spreadsheet (and here) whereby the blog is updated immediately for assistance of those not at the live draft location.

If others also plan to not be there physically I suggest making arrangements as well. I know how annoying it is to be at a live draft and have to wait for someone who is not physically available to make their pick (I'm not saying it has happened in our league). So let's be sure to try and alleviate any frustration in this regard as much as possible. We can do this through a number of means. Please plan for this ahead of time.

Food: I have no idea what you all would like to do in this area. Please contact the Commissioner if you want to see something coordinated as we had last year with food and drinks. The earlier we plan the better. Costs and food assignments will need to be delegated accordingly too. You can also respond to this on this blog or on the Yahoo! League Message Board.

Right now it is open as to what time the draft will begin. There are a number of considerations to remember in this regard. Does 4:00 PM CDT not work for you? Please describe your conflict ASAP.

Just by way of reminder, the current offseason trade between Yankinfowlsandfeline (R Rice RB and 14th Rd Pick) and TheSloppyButts (1st Rd and 4th Rd Pick) is under review for league vote for up to one week. Please vote any VETO votes on the Yahoo! League Message Board.

Please be sure to check this blog, your email, and league message boards regularly for more updates as we near the Brothers Keeper 4 (2010) Fantasy Football Draft.

Tuesday, August 10, 2010

Do Bookends Rule? A Study on the Value of Draft Slots/Positions in a Snake Draft

Building a Fantasy Football Draft Value Chart is the first step in a number of discussions and evaluations. Very early on when I built a prototype of the Ideal Draft Value Chart the question arose as to which draft pick position in a snake draft had the highest fantasy point value. What is the best fantasy football draft position in a Brothers Keeper draft? Assuming you need fantasy points in order to win more frequently (which isn't an assumption at all really) it made sense to ask that if an ideal draft occurred where each fantasy player picked the best available fantasy point scorer for the upcoming year with perfect efficiency one should know which draft pick position was the most valuable. Logically people assume the earliest picks have the most advantage. Writers have even tested this sort of thing out (cf. Lab Test: The Snake Draft by FantasySharks.com; see also their 2011 Draft Slots Analysis).

In ESPN's The Magazine's July 26, 2010 NFL Fantasy Special, Christopher Harris published a 13 point article under the title "So Crazy It's Genius." The 4th point's heading is "Bookends Rule." Here Harris uses fantasy research to determine which draft positions produce winners:
Does the No. 1 pick really give you an edge? Is the last pick really the worst?
     Yes. And no.
     We studied every fantasy draft from 1999 to 2009 and posed this question: What would happen if we redrafted each year based on average draft position? For instance, before the 2002 season, the top five in ADP were Marshall Faulk, Ahman Green, Shaun Alexander, Kurt Warner and Ricky Williams. So in our '02 redraft, those were the first five players selected. After our redrafts, we calculated how each of the resulting fantasy teams in each of those 10 years stacked up in final points. We did this twice. First we drafted six rounds each year and looked at the actual fantasy points each team accrued. Then, for comparison, we drafted only two rounds per year. The biggest winners were the teams with the first- and second- overall picks. But surprisingly, Team 10 went for the third-highest average point total. In other words, bookends ruled.
Then Harris lists the data for the two experiments in two charts:

A few things to consider when you think of Harris's results. First, the data might be skewed by the fact that ADP is not perfect market efficiency. Second, actual results may not account for savvy trading by those participants or some easy schedule of opponents in the fantasy league. Third, why not use perfect market efficiency instead to calculate the highest fantasy point teams?

So what would be the best draft position according to the Brothers Keeper Fantasy Football Draft Value Chart throughout an entire 15 round draft (using FPOB instead of straight fantasy points)?

Rank   Pos   Total FPOB
1         1       472.93
2         2       388.48
3         3       372.13
4         4       335.1
5         5       332.98
6         6       332.9
7         7       325.07
8         8       318.2
9         9       316.19
10       10     307.85

Rank   Pos   Total FPOB
1         1       419.2
2         2       358.76
3         3       343.65
4         4       323.58
5         6       282.18
6         5       280.31
7         7       278.35
8         8       275.94
9         10     262.97
10       9       262.94

Rank   Pos   Total FPOB
1         1       289.94
2         2       287.61
3         3       265.31
4         4       265.05
5         9       261.09
6         8       260.57
7         7       257.73
8         6       256.97
9         10     256.76
10       5       256.7

Rank   Pos   Total FPOB
1         1       357.88
2         2       301.27
3         3       293.22
4         4       282.01
5         5       276.85
6         6       252.25
7         7       239.85
8         8       236.17
9         10     228.94
10       9       222.63

4 Year Avg
Rank   Pos   Total FPOB
1         1       384.99
2         2       334.03
3         3       318.58
4         4       301.44
5         5       286.71
6         6       281.08
7         7       275.25
8         8       272.72
9         9       265.71
10       10     264.13

If we were to eliminate the negative FPOB, namely those picks after round 9, what would the results look like at the end of the first 9 rounds of a Brothers Keeper draft?

Rank   Pos   9 Rds of FPOB
1         1       555.44
2         2       470.17
3         3       453.28
4         4       414.84
5         6       412.95
6         5       412.13
7         7       402.9
8         9       397.09
9         8       396.82
10       10     390.76

Rank   Pos   9 Rds of FPOB
1        1        514.23
2        2        452.08
3        3        437.95
4        4        417
5        5        371.96
6        6        371.68
7        7        369.13
8        8        364.81
9        10      352.82
10      9        351.79

Rank   Pos   9 Rds of FPOB
1         1       376.1
2         2       373
3         3       352.71
4         4       351.23
5         9       346.12
6         8       345.97
7         5       343.53
8         10     343.24
9         7       342.7
10       6       342.55

Rank   Pos   9 Rds of FPOB
1         1       474.34
2         2       416.76
3         3       408.53
4         4       398.26
5         5       392.75
6         6       367.22
7         7       355.83
8         8       351.42
9         10     343.68
10       9       339.65

4 Year Avg
Rank   Pos   9 Rds of FPOB
1         1       480.03
2         2       428
3         3       413.12
4         4       395.33
5         5       380.09
6         6       373.6
7         7       367.64
8         8       364.76
9         9       358.66
10       10     357.63

The results challenge Harris's research. Obviously this is only theory. Perfect market efficiency is not reality. Savvy fantasy football players are in every draft position in leagues all throughout the internet. A more talented player can be in any seemingly poor draft position and do much better than his/her peers. But in a perfect world, with perfect market efficiency it makes most sense to see that in a 15 round draft with Brothers Keeper's scoring the first position in a draft is the most valuable. This makes sense if you consider the fact that in an odd number of rounds (15 or 9), the 1st draft position team chooses the first pick in a round more times than the team in the 10th draft slot.

For the 10th draft position to win a league's championship that player must overcome greater odds than those who pick earlier. Bookends do not rule in a perfect world. The 10th draft position is not at an advantage as Harris suggests.

This seems to correlate with the history of Brothers Keeper as a result of the current Brothers Keeper draft order rule (see Section II. E: The Keeper League Draft Order). Brothers Keeper has not had a repeat champion. Plus, Brothers Keeper has had a team go from worst to 1st. The draft is both helpful and detrimental to the correct teams from the previous year's final standings and so far the draft order regulations has leveled the playing field for the league in successive years.

Sunday, August 8, 2010

Brothers Keeper: Declaration Day!

It feels like Christmas! And here's the first gift to unpack! Brothers Keeper's 2010 Declarations!

I have indicated prior keepers with Y's iin the far right column. The amount of times a player has been kept in consecutive years is the same number of Y's indicated. For instance, a keeper with YYY has been kept three times or three years in a row to be more precise. All 1st Rd value keepers, whether listed in the 1st Rd or 2d Rd etc. are also indicated next to the Y. There is also an instance whereby a 2d Rd value is noted for players on Sea Buzzards team. These notes are helpful for the following years.

I will double check all the keeper value info tomorrow. If you see any errors please let me know promptly for correction. Thanks. Now without further ado:

Please stay tuned via this blog, email, and the league message board for the 2010 Brothers Keeper Draft date, time, and location to be determined within the next week.

Saturday, July 31, 2010

Building a Fantasy Football Draft Value Chart

The yearly NFL Draft gave rise to NFL Draft Value Charts (see my earlier post on the matter). NFL Draft Value Charts were built and designed to give a numeric value to each draft pick position for an entire NFL Draft. The reason for building a chart was to be able to evaluate trades before, during (on the fly), and after the draft. If one were to receive draft picks in a trade or trade away draft picks one needed to know the potential value they were trading. Everyone knows earlier picks are more valuable than later picks but how much more valuable are they? Well, smart NFL executives have assigned values for each pick in the draft. So what does this have to do with fantasy football? Everything.

It should logically follow that fantasy football players build a league specific Fantasy Football Draft Value Chart. In a straight re-draft fantasy league the rule might not allow for trades during the draft so a chart would not be as beneficial to you and your league. The following discussion may still offer you some help. Some leagues, however, like Brothers Keeper, allow for trades involving keepers or draft picks before and during the fantasy draft.

While I haven't seen much out there by way of fantasy football draft value charts, some do exist. Here's an ESPN writer creating a Fantasy Football 2007 Draft Slot Rankings. You'll also discover Footballguys.com's Pick Value Calculator and maybe stumbled across a related article like FantasySharks.com Lab Test: The Snake Draft.

First, a Fantasy Football Draft Value Chart needs to consider a few things. Most drafts do not draft the most productive straight fantasy point producer to the least productive fantasy point producer. If they did, QBs would take up most of the first round draft picks. Today's fantasy football drafts and rankings are ruled by replacement level baselines in order to equally value each position. Also called Value Based Drafting (most famously popularized by Footballguys.com):
The simplest formula is the last starter baseline. What you do is figure out how many people are going to start at each position. If you are in a 10 team league that starts 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, and 1 TE then you figure out what the 10th ranked QB, 20th ranked RB, 30th ranked WR, and 10th ranked TE will score. Then you subtract that number from all the players in the same category (RB number from RBs, etc.) This will give you a last starter baseline of 0. Everyone ahead of the last starter will have a positive value while all those below will have a negative value. Now, you have a way of comparing positions to each other.
Because Brothers Keeper has 10 teams and starts 1 QB, 2 WR, 2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR/RB, 1 K, and 1 DEF the baseline is thus: the 10th ranked QB, TE, K, and DEF along with the 50th Ranked WR/RB. They are the baseline of zero. Everyone else scores fantasy points above or below this baseline. This eliminates the variations for positional needs. The acronym for this is FPOB (Fantasy Points Over Baseline). If a player's FPOB is negative they are below the baseline, while a player who has a FPOB that is positive is above/over the baseline. Negative FPOB players may be on a fantasy team's roster but aren't usually starters on non-Bye weeks. Positive FPOB players should be regular starters on a fantasy team. That's the advantage of utilizing Value Based Drafting and FPOB. The result of employing this method means about 90 players will be above this baseline (10 teams with 9 positions for each team to start each week). There may be more than 90 as more than one player may score the same amount of FPOB around that 90th ranked player. It may be helpful to think of the baseline as Replacement Level.

Important caveats: By the way, each league's fantasy point scoring for offensive positions and defensive positions is different. So use your league's scoring model to calculate the information. Below I will list an Ideal Draft Value Chart which will not account for the fact that many draft strategies draft backup RBs or WRs before or during TEs and DEF. Nor does it account for a strategy where most fantasy players draft K's at the end of a fantasy draft. It is an Ideal Draft Value Chart with a static baseline not a dynamic baseline utilizing the historical data of the previous Brothers Keeper Fantasy Football seasons.

Before calculating a draft value chart outright, one needs to figure out what to use: Should we use real/actual draft data from previous seasons (an Authentic/Market Value Draft Value Chart) or the final season stats of previous seasons (an Ideal Draft Value Chart)? While there is little difference other than the rare anomaly, I chose the Ideal Fantasy Football Draft Value Chart as the point of departure. I want an honest assessment of how fantasy owners drafted without being subject to human choices or strategies. The idea behind an Ideal Fantasy Football Draft Value Chart is to highlight human error and try to avoid human errors. I do not want to use a Draft Value Chart laden with human errors in order to evaluate human error. The Authentic/Market Value Draft Value Chart doesn't tell you what the picks should be worth unless you assume perfect market efficiency, which is not what has occurred historically. I want a perfect standard to measure all others. Therefore final season stat lines should be utilized in creating an Ideal Fantasy Football Draft Value Chart.

As a result I have collated the final season fantasy points and FPOB totals from the past 4 seasons and took an average from them. That's right, I am including the 2006 season's data (the season prior to Brothers Keeper's inception) because it's "one louder."

Another consideration that needs to be addressed is whether or not you average the baseline for all the years of production or if you utilize each year's baseline. The more years you collect in data the closer these two items come to one another. I imagine, if you couldn't decide you could just take the average between the two of them for a more stable guideline. But using each year's baseline makes most sense. That way the 90th player selected should be the baseline of 0. Namely, everyone, ideally should have all their starters drafted. After the 90th pick the players are below replacement level. This does not account for drafting strategies that delay Kickers or Team Defenses to later rounds. This is an ideal draft scenario which includes Kickers, Team Defenses, and Tight Ends as equal to the Quarterbacks, Running Backs, and Wide Receivers. Each position is treated the same as it relates to it's replacement level/baseline.

Baselines of Overall Performance For Each Year:

10th Ranked QB = 240.3 fantasy points
50th Ranked RB/WR = 148.9 fantasy points
10th Ranked TE = 112 fantasy points
10th Ranked K = 118 fantasy points
10th Ranked DEF = 139 fantasy points

10th Ranked QB = 281.18 fantasy points
50th Ranked RB/WR = 150.8 fantasy points
10th Ranked TE = 106.55 fantasy points
10th Ranked K = 127 fantasy points
10th Ranked DEF = 146 fantasy points

10th Ranked QB = 266.32 fantasy points
50th Ranked RB/WR = 163.28 fantasy points
10th Ranked TE = 100.9 fantasy points
10th Ranked K = 129 fantasy points
10th Ranked DEF =142 fantasy points

10th Ranked QB = 304.34 fantasy points
50th Ranked RB/WR = 155.65 fantasy points
10th Ranked TE = 138.6 fantasy points
10th Ranked K = 122 fantasy points
10th Ranked DEF = 137 fantasy points

Below is the Brothers Keeper Ideal Fantasy Football Draft Value Chart. The first column is the round each pick is made in. The second column is the individual team's draft position for a snake draft. The third column is the overall pick number. The next four columns detail each season's Ideal Draft Value for each pick from 2006 - 2009 (One Louder!). The column farthest to the right is the average of those 4 seasons at each pick. So without further ado:

If we were to chart or graph the Brothers Keeper Ideal Fantasy Football Draft Value Chart for 2006 - 2009 along with their 4 year average it would appear as follows.

As you can see, assuming an ideal draft, the earlier the pick the more valuable the player compared to the baseline. The 90th pick for all seasons is zero. So after that pick in an ideal draft you are beginning to draft below replacement level players.

A Fantasy Football Draft Value Chart can only tell you what the picks should be worth assuming perfect market efficiency. Because Brothers Keeper is a keeper league it will never be perfect market efficiency since players who are kept by their owners/GMs throw that off. But you can evaluate past performances of owners in the league and the future of your potential keepers better with an Ideal Fantasy Football Draft Value Chart than without it. It is a better evaluation tool than predictor of future success. Make sure this is clear in your understanding: An Ideal Fantasy Football Draft Value Chart does not project future statistics at all. It is merely an estimate of the FPOB each draft pick should be worth in a draft where perfect market efficiency exists. If one is using projected statistic of their own or from a website or magazine, then one might be able to compare a player's value for this upcoming year but it only helps to see if it is a good or bad value for the pick they are worth if the player achieves the projected statistics. An injury or some other set of circumstances may toss that out the window. However, this tool can be used for two other reasons as well.

What is the significance of Brothers Keeper's Ideal Fantasy Football Draft Value Chart? I began building this chart in order to better understand who to keep and who not to keep. My teams at the end of 2007, 2008, and 2009 were stacked with talent I did not want to see go to some other team. But I had no idea if B Westbrook RB in Rd 1 was better to keep than J Witten TE in Rd 11? I wanted a better gauge as to who to keep. I wanted the most value for each pick that I could get. Plus, I also did not know when I should let someone go. When were players going to under perform their draft value if they were kept? I did not want to waste a keeper on someone who was not going to perform better than his Ideal Fantasy Football Draft Value. Plus, I wanted to be able to evaluate previous seasons and see which owners/GMs had success and why.

Another reason I built this chart was so that I had some sort of standard by which to evaluate trades prior to and during the draft. We will be able to look back and evaluate the only draft day trade in Brothers Keeper's history. Is this tool useful for future trade discussions? We will explore all these questions at a future date but here is the raw data for Brothers Keeper. Improvements can and could be made or considered in the near future as well. For instance, should one utilize this information on a per game basis instead of on a full season level, thus accounting for injuries and the like?

In a following series of posts I will begin a team by team assessment of their drafting and keeper skills utilizing this data as a gauge for the discussion. Perhaps it will also help highlight why certain teams perform better than others over the course of time.

UPDATE: Now that the 2010 season is over I posted an important update: A Fantasy Football Draft Value Chart Update: 2011

Thursday, July 29, 2010

Brothers Keeper 4 (2010) Fantasy Football Keeper Declaration Deadline

According to the league Commissioner, M Peltonen and no one's objection, the 2010 Brothers Keeper Fantasy Football Keeper Declaration Deadline is Sunday August 8th, 2010 at 11:59 PM CDT (cf. Section II.D.). Please notify the League Commissioner M Peltonen via email or phone or verbally in person.

If you do not wish to continue playing in the Brothers Keeper Fantasy Football League please contact the League Commissioner as soon as possible in order for Brothers Keeper to arrange a replacement player/owner. There are a number of things that the remaining league owners will need to decide before a replacement is offered to a current final roster as their team. Please be diligent toward the other Brothers Keeper owners in this regard. The last thing we would like to see is a time sensitive issue disrupt normative league activities like keeper declaration deadlines and drafts. Your cooperation will be greatly appreciative and go a long way toward your consideration for a later re-entry into the Brothers Keeper fantasy football league if such a need arises once older players die off or other players exit.

Be sure to take a look at your team's "Looking Ahead 2010" post on this blog to see your final rosters from 2009. From there you will be able to see each player's 2009 total fantasy starts, fantasy points, 2010 developmental eligibility, and 2010 keeper value. For instance, an Undrafted player on your final roster is worth a 15th round draft pick if retained. More information can be gathered there. If you see an error, please contact me so I can check into it and update your team's post to be more accurate.

For your review of the II. KEEPER DRAFT RULE please consult The Canon of Brothers Keeper Fantasy Football League.

11:15 PM CDT Update: And don't forget to Enter the League!

Tuesday, July 27, 2010

Helpful Random 2010 Fantasy Football Related Items

Here's a number of odd and random items for you to glean from as we lurch closer to the 2010 fantasy football season.

CBSSports.com's Rapid Reports is always a fun read. You never know what you're going to get. But it is always good to get snippets of your favored NFL teams and their practices at training camp etc. Select a team and see that day's news. In fact, if you want to see archives of previous days you can do so. I have also attached their widget to the bottom of my blog. Select a team and read.

KFFL has a nice Running Back Handcuff Chart to secure your backups or RBBC (Running Backs By Committee).

The Pancake Blocks blog over at Rotoworld.com highlights some notable Training Camp Position Battles to monitor.

If you're worried about injuries you may want to consider this article highlighting 15 stars who could get injured in 2010. Not sure how accurate one can predict injuries in such a high contact sport, but you may want to bury this in the back of your head. I remain skeptical of this article's ability to predict injuries. There are only a few resources on the web I personally would trust concerning sports injuries. This is not one of them, but it is here for your consumption.

Over at ESPN Christopher Harris has some new stats to consider.

Ultimate Fantasy Football Strategy has an interesting article on Weekly Consistency for the different positions. Again, something new to think about when choosing your keeper or drafting your next fantasy player.

Fantasyfootballguys.com has a Rate My Team function for use following your drafts.

Perhaps you just want a new fantasy football team name for 2010. If so, check out Razzball's Fantasy Football Team Name Generator. I'm sure there are a ton more available on the web if you just Google it. Perhaps you'll want to submit it to this year's team name contest?

A few of these more enduring items will be added to the links on the side bar for your easy access in the future. I hope your 2010 fantasy football preparation is going well. For more of these types of posts by another blogger, please consult the FFLibrarian's frequent posts. She has slowed some as a result of her pregnancy and moves, but she's pretty good at highlighting/selecting what is out there to be read and seen by the fantasy playing community.

I am hoping to get a new Twitter feed widget to show good fantasy football related tweets. I need to sit down and compile a list for a Twitter widget. The non-Twitter based widget I have had up on my blog has not been working in recent months probably as a result of an overload on the free server. If you are not using Twitter I highly recommend it. Twitter, along with other news feeds are helpful for live, up to date information, current discussions, and news. Last year I found out Michael Jackson died from Twitter. Today I knew before many that Terrell Owens signed with the Bengals.

7/27/10 Update: Here's an article about RB Turnover you may want to consider when thinking about your draft. Then there's the always standard advice for drafting to recall.

Thursday, July 15, 2010

Looking Ahead 2010: Yer X-MOM

This is the final "Looking Ahead 2010" post of a series of ten blogs covering each team from Brothers Keeper in detail. We began with the last place team and have moved up to the top of the league standings as it stood at the end of the 2009 fantasy football season (cf. Kabuki Strikes Back; CustodianPandemonium; Favre$Footlong; Ghost; Redmans CatPunters; Yankinfowlsandfeline; Simba's ButtKicker!CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS; and Sea Buzzards). This post will present our 2010 1st Place Gold Medalist/Trophy Winner and reigning Brothers Keeper Champion, Yer X-MOM (P Smith).

Overview of P Smith's Brothers Keeper History
2007 Yer X-MOM: 10-4-0 (4th Place) 1665.13 points; 38 transactions
2008 Yer X-MOM: 9-4-0 (4th Place) 1678.86 points; 41 transactions
2009 Yer X-MOM: 8-5-0 (1st Place) 1492.55 points; 39 transactions

2009 End of Season Commentary
After two consecutive years of exits in the semifinals as the number two seed in the playoffs, something needed to change. 2009 saw Yer X-MOM (P Smith) enter the playoffs again as the number two seed. Change happened. Yer X-MOM won the semifinal contest and entered the championship game against the number eight seeded team Sea Buzzards (M Peltonen).

For 3 consecutive years Yer X-MOM has been a league powerhouse posting high point totals and numerous wins. P Smith attributes this to strong drafting. The inaugural Brothers Keeper campaign in 2007 saw him pick eighth. He landed B Westbrook RB, M Harrison WR (who he traded later for S Smith WR [Car]), A Gates TE, Jamal Lewis RB, and A Johnson WR. A Johnson has been retained on his team ever since and been productive.

In 2008 Westbrook was retained for a final productive season. C Portis RB, S Slaton RB, and A Boldin WR were both great draft picks as well. During the 2008 draft, Yer X-MOM traded his 4th round pick to PAIN (D Kessler) for J Witten TE. Immediately after the draft and prior to the season's start, Yer X-MOM dropped D. J. Hackett WR and picked up an undrafted free agent rookie in C Johnson RB. This team was set for success once K Warner QB was retrieved from free agency as well. The choice for keepers for Yer X-MOM has always been a hard decision to make with all of that talent. C Johnson RB, A Johnson WR, S Slaton RB, and J Witten TE were kept for the 2009 season. Of those he let go from his final roster, B Westbrook RB and A Boldin WR were both 1st round draft picks by competitors in 2009. C Portis RB and K Warner QB were 2d round draft picks. That's 4 players from Yer X-MOM's 2008 final roster on other teams one year later by the end of round two. Unfortunately, none of those picks lived up to their high draft value for those competitors due to injuries and other reasons. Should other players beware of those players Yer X-MOM drops before 2010?

To supplement the solid 2009 keepers, 2009's draft was also strong with S Jackson RB, P Rivers QB, and R Brown RB taken in the first three rounds. This was supplemented by productive free agent pickups in R Mendenhall RB, L Maroney RB, J Harrison RB, and J Finley TE. P Smith said, "I totally wanted J Charles RB and M Austin WR too but I had no wiggle room on a talented roster to be able to maneuver. So I made a trade instead for a WR. I wish I had dropped some guys like L White RB and W Parker RB earlier. They were good protection for C Johnson RB and R Mendenhall RB though. Better safe than sorry I guess. Congratulations to the two gentlemen who did the right thing and picked those guys up."

FFToolbox.com has published an intriguing list of Strong Finishers. It is a list of the top 40 RBs in average fantasy points during the weeks 12-17 of the 2009 season. This list may be helpful on two fronts: First, it could be an indicator of 2010 success. These RBs may be drafted higher than otherwise would have as a result of their productive streak late in 2009 because they may have just been a glimpse of their 2010 productivity.

Second, it is a good source to check to see if the RBs higher on the list impacted the Brothers Keeper fantasy football playoffs. After all, 2 of the top 3 RBs (also 3 of the top 15 and 4 of the top 20) listed were on the Championship roster of Yer X-MOM (P Smith). For a 10 team league that requires at least 2 RBs to be started each week (20 minimum in the league) out of a possible 50 RBs a week (assuming each team fills its WR/RB flex position with a RB) it is easy to see why Yer X-MOM had more success than normal in the playoffs. Playoff success is just as much luck as it is anything else. There is no way to predict this kind of success for playoff weeks prior to start of a season. Regardless, the results are there to be inspected and understood in their historical context.

The keys to the successful championship run for Yer X-MOM in 2009 are thus: (1) Productive keepers supplemented by (2) a good draft and (3) midseason free agent pickups followed by (4) playoff luck. There was enough talent on the roster to sustain season ending injuries to S Slaton RB and R Brown RB. There was even enough in the week 16 starting lineup to win the championship despite S Jackson's late scratch from participating in week 16's St. Louis game. It was not the result af any in-season trade. The formula sounds so simple really but it was 3 years in the making.

So here's Yer X-MOM's trophy for the 2009 Brothers Keeper Fantasy Football Season:

Yer X-MOM's 2009 Draft
Yer X-MOM (P Smith) had the 8th overall draft pick position in the 2009 draft thanks to his strong playoff performance (4th place). His 2009 draft results are thus (noting that those who were kept from his 2008 final roster:

1. (8) Steven Jackson RB
2. (13) Philip Rivers QB
3. (28) Ronnie Brown RB
4. (33) Andre Johnson WR (Keeper)
5. (48) Willie Parker WR
6. (53) LenDale White RB
7. (68) Felix Jones RB
8. (73) Santonio Holmes WR
9. (88) Domenik Hixon WR
10. (93) Jason Witten TE (Keeper)
11. (108) Steve Slaton RB (Keeper)
12. (113) Jerious Norwood RB
13. (128) San Diego DEF
14. (133) Torry Holt WR
15. (148) Chris Johnson RB (Keeper)

Yer X-MOM's Final 2009 Roster
I have included the 2010 draft round and pick overall (overall pick is in parentheses) value of each player on Yer X-MOM's final roster followed by the name of the player, player's position, total # of fantasy starts for the season (a * indicates developmental eligibility for 2010's draft; some players were on more than one team but their total starts for all teams is listed); and total fantasy points scored by the player for the 16 fantasy week season (which is not subject to the # of starts):
1. (10) Steven Jackson RB (1st Rd Keeper Value); 15 fantasy starts; 228.70 fp
2. (11) Philip Rivers QB; 13 fantasy starts; 352.16 fp
3. (30) Ronnie Brown RB; 9 fantasy starts; 136.58 fp
3. (30) Andre Johnson WR; 15 fantasy starts; 236.45 fp
4. (31)
5. (50)
6. (51)
7. (70)
8. (71) Santonio Holmes WR; 8 fantasy starts; 170.20 fp
9. (90) Jason Witten TE; 15 fantasy starts; 157.50 fp
10. (91) Steve Slaton RB; 7 fantasy starts; 140.55 fp
11. (110) Rashard Mendenhall RB; 8 fantasy starts; 191.12 fp
12. (111)
13. (130) Laurence Maroney RB; 7 (4 with Yankinfowlsandfeline + 3 with Yer X-MOM fantasy starts; 149.95 fp
14. (131) Chris Johnson RB; *3 fantasy starts; 367.75 fp
15. (150) Kevin Kolb QB; *0 fantasy starts; 60.54 fp (Undrafted)
15. (150) Jerome Harrison RB; *2 fantasy starts 1 with CustodianPandemonium + 1 with Yer X-MOM); 171.03 fp (Undrafted)
15. (150) Hakeem Nicks WR; *1 fantasy starts (1 with CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS); 123.83 fp (Undrafted)
15. (150) Jeremy Maclin WR; *2 fantasy starts (1 with Favre$Footlong + 1 with Simba's ButtKicker!); 121.52 fp (Undrafted)
15. (150) Jermichael Finley TE; *0 fantasy starts; 116.80 fp (Undrafted)

Looking Ahead at 2010
To begin with, Yer X-MOM will have another year of picking late in the draft. Not too much of a problem when you have a good talent pool to select keepers from.
Contract issues aside (see C Johnson and A Johnson's holdouts), over the last two seasons, A Johnson WR has 609 more receiving yards (3,144) than any other player in the NFL (Roddy White is next with 2535 yards followed closely by Larry Fitzgerald with 2523 yards). The parity is quite stark. There's no major changes in the offense or coaching for the Houston Texans in the upcoming season either which bodes well for A Johnson WR. Houston Texans QB M Schaub proved to remain healthy in 2009 and if all goes well he will continue to outproduce Indianapolis Colts QB P Manning's yardage totals. Nothing contributes more to a WR's success than a good quality QB and visa-versa, a good QB's completion percentage is dependent upon his WRs catch rates.

Chris Johnson RB (2009 Offensive Player of the Year, Unanimous All Pro Team Choice, and Best Breakthrough Athlete ESPY winner) flirted with the historic yardage total of Eric Dickerson's 1984 single season rushing record in 2009. But as the 2003 Jamal Lewis found out , it is really hard to break 2,104 yards. Johnson missed by exactly 100 yards from being the undisputed leader. Dickerson is closer to holding the record for an impressive 20 years as a result. However, the question then becomes, will C Johnson be able to repeat his production if teams stack the box against him in 2010? After all, he did break the single season record for yards from scrimmage in 2009. The amazing thing about Yer X-MOM's use of C Johnson is that he was only utilized 3 times in 2009. It is baffling to think that having only spent a 15th round pick on C Johnson in 2009 he was only used a mere 3 times as the most productive fantasy player in 2009. Yer X-MOM was either keeping the playing field even or had something else in mind. When asked by R Smith of Custodian Pandemonium why C Johnson wasn't utilized, P Smith responded that it was due to the tougher matchups each week early in the season. By mid season C Johnson had only been used once or twice while the other RBs had already exceeded their developmental status limits so it seemed legitimate to try and keep C Johnson a developmental status if it were possible. Despite C Johnson's contract dispute, he does appear to be preparing for the 2010 NFL season.

S Jackson's RB statistics were very impressive when understood within the context of the poor team he played for. Jackson only scored four TDs, but ranked second in the NFL with 1,416 rushing yards behind C Johnson RB in only 15 games of play. Things can only get better in St. Louis this season, which should lead to a few more scores. The only way St. Louis can go is up from their past performances. Further, the offense with rookie quarterback Sam Bradford at the helm should yield more pass-catching opportunities for the running back thus increasing fantasy production in the PPR format Brothers Keeper enjoys. However, he did have an offseason back surgery which appears to have gone well.

Philip Rivers is definitely an above average QB. However, his production fromt he past two seasons may decline slightly depending on how present V Jackson WR is. V Jackson will have at least a 3 game suspension but is also in a contract dispute with the San Diego GM. The GM seems unwavering and V Jackson has been as grounded in his position too. A Gates TE and M Floyd WR will still be on the receiving end, but not having V Jackson is quite a loss for Rivers. It will be interesting to see if he'd be able to maintain his high production despite the loss of V Jackson's services. Rivers is competitive enough to probably be close to his past two seasons of production but it is not certain. It will also come down to whether or not he is worth a 2d round value to keep.

R Brown RB has been injured 2 years in a row now. However, when he was playing in the past two seasons, he has been very productive. It will be interesting to watch his production with C Henne as the Miami QB and R Williams RB still in the fold. Plus, we need to consider his health.

While S Slaton was an excellent value pick in 2008 and could have been a lucrative RB kept in 2009 it remains to be seen as to whether or not he will remain the starting RB in Houston. Speculation on who their starter will be is rampant. Will it be A Foster, S Slaton, or a rookie? Regardless, Slaton has been cleared for training camp following his neck surgery. But a neck injury is nothing to pass over quickly.

R Mendenhall, L Maroney, J Harrison all had a good year at RB in 2009. Do any of them merit being kept for 2010? R Mendenhall seems to be a clear starter in Pittsburgh with the offseason departure of W Parker RB to the Redskins. He is going in the late 1st Rd or early 2d Rd in mock drafts. However, with B Roethlisberger QB out at least 4 if not more games (just this week there were rumors as to whether or not Roethlisberger was seen urinating in public on a golf course by a female; will the Pittsburgh Steelers "relieve" themselves of him finally?), it definitely merits questions as to whether or not Mendenhall is worth that high of a pick. Plus he plays the stout defenses in the AFC North. It will not be a cakewalk for Mendenhall in 2010 just as it was not easy for S Jackson in 2009 in a St. Louis uniform, but he could be productive. J Harrison may or may not be the de facto starter in Cleveland and L Maroney's career has not been a fantasy footballer's pleasure. So they are probably not on the same par with S Jackson, C Johnson, R Brown, and R Mendenhall discussion as to being keepers.

At WR Yer X-MOM has a number of guys with upside in S Holmes WR (who will be serving a 4 game suspension with his new team the New York Jets), J Maclin, and H Nicks. But none of them are elite WRs like A Johnson, L Fitzgerald, or R Moss. With a team as stocked as Yer X-MOM's it will be hard to retain them without giving up better talent elsewhere. As The Talented Mr. Roto Matthew Berry advises,
If you are in a keeper league, you obviously need to figure out whom to keep. You keep your difference-makers, and that's it. I define a difference-maker as someone who is clearly better than most of the others at his position. Guys like Adrian Peterson, Drew Brees and Randy Moss. But that's it -- other than an elite tight end, which might be OK to keep.

At TE Yer X-MOM has two fantasy producers in J Finley and J Witten. While Witten was solid last year his TD total decreased from 2008 and 2007. It might not bode well for 2010 but his receptions and yardage were still high enough to make him a worthy weekly fantasy starter. J Finley came out of nowhere to become a highly sought after free agent in fantasy leagues in 2009. He is among a large group of viable fantasy TEs. This year's class of TEs for fantasy purposes seems quite deep as opposed to the sparse nature of the position in the past. When there are at least 10 good TEs to choose from you really have to like the keeper draft value of Witten or Finley to retain them. Witten is gold in the 9th Rd and Finley in the 15 Rd for Yer X-MOM's consideration. But for Finley, you also need to consider whether or not he's ready to maintain a high level of performance as he hopes to reverse his past immaturity.

The other QB on Yer X-MOM's final roster is K Kolb. Kolb is the de facto recipient of the starting QB job for the Philadelphia Eagles following D McNabb's trade to the Washington Redskins. As such, Kolb will still compete with M Vick QB to play even though they are friends. If Vick continues to be a problem in society Kolb could be the only NFL starter on the Eagles roster. But is he ready? Some think so.

Every year Yer X-MOM dreads having to make the decision to let guys go from his final roster and it will be another tough decision this year as to who he should keep.

My Best Guess at Yer X-MOM's 2010 Keepers
The best guess at this point will be C Johnson RB as developmental for the 14th Rd pick since he seems to be one of the top 2 or 3 overall draft picks in most early fantasy football mock drafts. Alongside C Johnson is A Johnson in the 3d Rd since he is considered the top WR and is being drafted in the 1st Rd of many mock drafts as well. R Mendenhall RB is a solid pick for the 11th Rd and for now it appears he'd be a decent value too. The final keeper depends on a lot of things like who all is projected to be kept by other teams by Yer X-MOM and who he thinks will be the best value in 2010 and onward too. If Yer X-MOM wants to try for another dominant campaign and run for the championship then S Jackson RB is a safe pick as long as he recovers from his back surgery in time for a full season of production. But that is not so safe is it. It is hard to guess who else would be kept but TEs  J Witten and J Finley are also an excellent value keeper at Rd 9 and 15. At QB, P Rivers was an excellent commodity in Yer X-MOM's championship run and would also be a solid keeper for 2010 possibly. After C Johnson, A Johnson, and R Mendenhall, it is tough to project who the final keeper will be for Yer X-MOM in 2010. I'll just say S Jackson for now.

Brothers Keeper Third Party Consultant's Best Guess at Yer X-MOM's 2010 Keepers
"if it was me i would take andre johnson, chris johnson, kolb, and have finley as my developmental player. the value u would get on finley if he lives up to the hype would be better than everyone other than chris johnson finley is probly going to outscore the top and last TE drafted by atleast 350 combined! thats a crazy high diffrence u gotta take that risk to reap the biggest reward your ever. gonna get at least from a TE. value drafting key to winning u could keep mendenhall instead of kolb as well but would u risk the qb for the rb or just draft a new stud rookie rb later in the draft."