Looking Ahead 2010: Yer X-MOM

This is the final "Looking Ahead 2010" post of a series of ten blogs covering each team from Brothers Keeper in detail. We began with the last place team and have moved up to the top of the league standings as it stood at the end of the 2009 fantasy football season (cf. Kabuki Strikes Back; CustodianPandemonium; Favre$Footlong; Ghost; Redmans CatPunters; Yankinfowlsandfeline; Simba's ButtKicker!; CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS; and Sea Buzzards). This post will present our 2010 1st Place Gold Medalist/Trophy Winner and reigning Brothers Keeper Champion, Yer X-MOM (P Smith).

Overview of P Smith's Brothers Keeper History
2007 Yer X-MOM: 10-4-0 (4th Place) 1665.13 points; 38 transactions
2008 Yer X-MOM: 9-4-0 (4th Place) 1678.86 points; 41 transactions
2009 Yer X-MOM: 8-5-0 (1st Place) 1492.55 points; 39 transactions

2009 End of Season Commentary
After two consecutive years of exits in the semifinals as the number two seed in the playoffs, something needed to change. 2009 saw Yer X-MOM (P Smith) enter the playoffs again as the number two seed. Change happened. Yer X-MOM won the semifinal contest and entered the championship game against the number eight seeded team Sea Buzzards (M Peltonen).

For 3 consecutive years Yer X-MOM has been a league powerhouse posting high point totals and numerous wins. P Smith attributes this to strong drafting. The inaugural Brothers Keeper campaign in 2007 saw him pick eighth. He landed B Westbrook RB, M Harrison WR (who he traded later for S Smith WR [Car]), A Gates TE, Jamal Lewis RB, and A Johnson WR. A Johnson has been retained on his team ever since and been productive.

In 2008 Westbrook was retained for a final productive season. C Portis RB, S Slaton RB, and A Boldin WR were both great draft picks as well. During the 2008 draft, Yer X-MOM traded his 4th round pick to PAIN (D Kessler) for J Witten TE. Immediately after the draft and prior to the season's start, Yer X-MOM dropped D. J. Hackett WR and picked up an undrafted free agent rookie in C Johnson RB. This team was set for success once K Warner QB was retrieved from free agency as well. The choice for keepers for Yer X-MOM has always been a hard decision to make with all of that talent. C Johnson RB, A Johnson WR, S Slaton RB, and J Witten TE were kept for the 2009 season. Of those he let go from his final roster, B Westbrook RB and A Boldin WR were both 1st round draft picks by competitors in 2009. C Portis RB and K Warner QB were 2d round draft picks. That's 4 players from Yer X-MOM's 2008 final roster on other teams one year later by the end of round two. Unfortunately, none of those picks lived up to their high draft value for those competitors due to injuries and other reasons. Should other players beware of those players Yer X-MOM drops before 2010?

To supplement the solid 2009 keepers, 2009's draft was also strong with S Jackson RB, P Rivers QB, and R Brown RB taken in the first three rounds. This was supplemented by productive free agent pickups in R Mendenhall RB, L Maroney RB, J Harrison RB, and J Finley TE. P Smith said, "I totally wanted J Charles RB and M Austin WR too but I had no wiggle room on a talented roster to be able to maneuver. So I made a trade instead for a WR. I wish I had dropped some guys like L White RB and W Parker RB earlier. They were good protection for C Johnson RB and R Mendenhall RB though. Better safe than sorry I guess. Congratulations to the two gentlemen who did the right thing and picked those guys up."

FFToolbox.com has published an intriguing list of Strong Finishers. It is a list of the top 40 RBs in average fantasy points during the weeks 12-17 of the 2009 season. This list may be helpful on two fronts: First, it could be an indicator of 2010 success. These RBs may be drafted higher than otherwise would have as a result of their productive streak late in 2009 because they may have just been a glimpse of their 2010 productivity.

Second, it is a good source to check to see if the RBs higher on the list impacted the Brothers Keeper fantasy football playoffs. After all, 2 of the top 3 RBs (also 3 of the top 15 and 4 of the top 20) listed were on the Championship roster of Yer X-MOM (P Smith). For a 10 team league that requires at least 2 RBs to be started each week (20 minimum in the league) out of a possible 50 RBs a week (assuming each team fills its WR/RB flex position with a RB) it is easy to see why Yer X-MOM had more success than normal in the playoffs. Playoff success is just as much luck as it is anything else. There is no way to predict this kind of success for playoff weeks prior to start of a season. Regardless, the results are there to be inspected and understood in their historical context.

The keys to the successful championship run for Yer X-MOM in 2009 are thus: (1) Productive keepers supplemented by (2) a good draft and (3) midseason free agent pickups followed by (4) playoff luck. There was enough talent on the roster to sustain season ending injuries to S Slaton RB and R Brown RB. There was even enough in the week 16 starting lineup to win the championship despite S Jackson's late scratch from participating in week 16's St. Louis game. It was not the result af any in-season trade. The formula sounds so simple really but it was 3 years in the making.

So here's Yer X-MOM's trophy for the 2009 Brothers Keeper Fantasy Football Season:

Yer X-MOM's 2009 Draft
Yer X-MOM (P Smith) had the 8th overall draft pick position in the 2009 draft thanks to his strong playoff performance (4th place). His 2009 draft results are thus (noting that those who were kept from his 2008 final roster:

1. (8) Steven Jackson RB
2. (13) Philip Rivers QB
3. (28) Ronnie Brown RB
4. (33) Andre Johnson WR (Keeper)
5. (48) Willie Parker WR
6. (53) LenDale White RB
7. (68) Felix Jones RB
8. (73) Santonio Holmes WR
9. (88) Domenik Hixon WR
10. (93) Jason Witten TE (Keeper)
11. (108) Steve Slaton RB (Keeper)
12. (113) Jerious Norwood RB
13. (128) San Diego DEF
14. (133) Torry Holt WR
15. (148) Chris Johnson RB (Keeper)

Yer X-MOM's Final 2009 Roster
I have included the 2010 draft round and pick overall (overall pick is in parentheses) value of each player on Yer X-MOM's final roster followed by the name of the player, player's position, total # of fantasy starts for the season (a * indicates developmental eligibility for 2010's draft; some players were on more than one team but their total starts for all teams is listed); and total fantasy points scored by the player for the 16 fantasy week season (which is not subject to the # of starts):
 
1. (10) Steven Jackson RB (1st Rd Keeper Value); 15 fantasy starts; 228.70 fp
2. (11) Philip Rivers QB; 13 fantasy starts; 352.16 fp
3. (30) Ronnie Brown RB; 9 fantasy starts; 136.58 fp
3. (30) Andre Johnson WR; 15 fantasy starts; 236.45 fp
4. (31)
5. (50)
6. (51)
7. (70)
8. (71) Santonio Holmes WR; 8 fantasy starts; 170.20 fp
9. (90) Jason Witten TE; 15 fantasy starts; 157.50 fp
10. (91) Steve Slaton RB; 7 fantasy starts; 140.55 fp
11. (110) Rashard Mendenhall RB; 8 fantasy starts; 191.12 fp
12. (111)
13. (130) Laurence Maroney RB; 7 (4 with Yankinfowlsandfeline + 3 with Yer X-MOM fantasy starts; 149.95 fp
14. (131) Chris Johnson RB; *3 fantasy starts; 367.75 fp
15. (150) Kevin Kolb QB; *0 fantasy starts; 60.54 fp (Undrafted)
15. (150) Jerome Harrison RB; *2 fantasy starts 1 with CustodianPandemonium + 1 with Yer X-MOM); 171.03 fp (Undrafted)
15. (150) Hakeem Nicks WR; *1 fantasy starts (1 with CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS); 123.83 fp (Undrafted)
15. (150) Jeremy Maclin WR; *2 fantasy starts (1 with Favre$Footlong + 1 with Simba's ButtKicker!); 121.52 fp (Undrafted)
15. (150) Jermichael Finley TE; *0 fantasy starts; 116.80 fp (Undrafted)

Looking Ahead at 2010
To begin with, Yer X-MOM will have another year of picking late in the draft. Not too much of a problem when you have a good talent pool to select keepers from.
Contract issues aside (see C Johnson and A Johnson's holdouts), over the last two seasons, A Johnson WR has 609 more receiving yards (3,144) than any other player in the NFL (Roddy White is next with 2535 yards followed closely by Larry Fitzgerald with 2523 yards). The parity is quite stark. There's no major changes in the offense or coaching for the Houston Texans in the upcoming season either which bodes well for A Johnson WR. Houston Texans QB M Schaub proved to remain healthy in 2009 and if all goes well he will continue to outproduce Indianapolis Colts QB P Manning's yardage totals. Nothing contributes more to a WR's success than a good quality QB and visa-versa, a good QB's completion percentage is dependent upon his WRs catch rates.

Chris Johnson RB (2009 Offensive Player of the Year, Unanimous All Pro Team Choice, and Best Breakthrough Athlete ESPY winner) flirted with the historic yardage total of Eric Dickerson's 1984 single season rushing record in 2009. But as the 2003 Jamal Lewis found out , it is really hard to break 2,104 yards. Johnson missed by exactly 100 yards from being the undisputed leader. Dickerson is closer to holding the record for an impressive 20 years as a result. However, the question then becomes, will C Johnson be able to repeat his production if teams stack the box against him in 2010? After all, he did break the single season record for yards from scrimmage in 2009. The amazing thing about Yer X-MOM's use of C Johnson is that he was only utilized 3 times in 2009. It is baffling to think that having only spent a 15th round pick on C Johnson in 2009 he was only used a mere 3 times as the most productive fantasy player in 2009. Yer X-MOM was either keeping the playing field even or had something else in mind. When asked by R Smith of Custodian Pandemonium why C Johnson wasn't utilized, P Smith responded that it was due to the tougher matchups each week early in the season. By mid season C Johnson had only been used once or twice while the other RBs had already exceeded their developmental status limits so it seemed legitimate to try and keep C Johnson a developmental status if it were possible. Despite C Johnson's contract dispute, he does appear to be preparing for the 2010 NFL season.

S Jackson's RB statistics were very impressive when understood within the context of the poor team he played for. Jackson only scored four TDs, but ranked second in the NFL with 1,416 rushing yards behind C Johnson RB in only 15 games of play. Things can only get better in St. Louis this season, which should lead to a few more scores. The only way St. Louis can go is up from their past performances. Further, the offense with rookie quarterback Sam Bradford at the helm should yield more pass-catching opportunities for the running back thus increasing fantasy production in the PPR format Brothers Keeper enjoys. However, he did have an offseason back surgery which appears to have gone well.

Philip Rivers is definitely an above average QB. However, his production fromt he past two seasons may decline slightly depending on how present V Jackson WR is. V Jackson will have at least a 3 game suspension but is also in a contract dispute with the San Diego GM. The GM seems unwavering and V Jackson has been as grounded in his position too. A Gates TE and M Floyd WR will still be on the receiving end, but not having V Jackson is quite a loss for Rivers. It will be interesting to see if he'd be able to maintain his high production despite the loss of V Jackson's services. Rivers is competitive enough to probably be close to his past two seasons of production but it is not certain. It will also come down to whether or not he is worth a 2d round value to keep.

R Brown RB has been injured 2 years in a row now. However, when he was playing in the past two seasons, he has been very productive. It will be interesting to watch his production with C Henne as the Miami QB and R Williams RB still in the fold. Plus, we need to consider his health.

While S Slaton was an excellent value pick in 2008 and could have been a lucrative RB kept in 2009 it remains to be seen as to whether or not he will remain the starting RB in Houston. Speculation on who their starter will be is rampant. Will it be A Foster, S Slaton, or a rookie? Regardless, Slaton has been cleared for training camp following his neck surgery. But a neck injury is nothing to pass over quickly.

R Mendenhall, L Maroney, J Harrison all had a good year at RB in 2009. Do any of them merit being kept for 2010? R Mendenhall seems to be a clear starter in Pittsburgh with the offseason departure of W Parker RB to the Redskins. He is going in the late 1st Rd or early 2d Rd in mock drafts. However, with B Roethlisberger QB out at least 4 if not more games (just this week there were rumors as to whether or not Roethlisberger was seen urinating in public on a golf course by a female; will the Pittsburgh Steelers "relieve" themselves of him finally?), it definitely merits questions as to whether or not Mendenhall is worth that high of a pick. Plus he plays the stout defenses in the AFC North. It will not be a cakewalk for Mendenhall in 2010 just as it was not easy for S Jackson in 2009 in a St. Louis uniform, but he could be productive. J Harrison may or may not be the de facto starter in Cleveland and L Maroney's career has not been a fantasy footballer's pleasure. So they are probably not on the same par with S Jackson, C Johnson, R Brown, and R Mendenhall discussion as to being keepers.

At WR Yer X-MOM has a number of guys with upside in S Holmes WR (who will be serving a 4 game suspension with his new team the New York Jets), J Maclin, and H Nicks. But none of them are elite WRs like A Johnson, L Fitzgerald, or R Moss. With a team as stocked as Yer X-MOM's it will be hard to retain them without giving up better talent elsewhere. As The Talented Mr. Roto Matthew Berry advises,

If you are in a keeper league, you obviously need to figure out whom to keep. You keep your difference-makers, and that's it. I define a difference-maker as someone who is clearly better than most of the others at his position. Guys like Adrian Peterson, Drew Brees and Randy Moss. But that's it -- other than an elite tight end, which might be OK to keep.

At TE Yer X-MOM has two fantasy producers in J Finley and J Witten. While Witten was solid last year his TD total decreased from 2008 and 2007. It might not bode well for 2010 but his receptions and yardage were still high enough to make him a worthy weekly fantasy starter. J Finley came out of nowhere to become a highly sought after free agent in fantasy leagues in 2009. He is among a large group of viable fantasy TEs. This year's class of TEs for fantasy purposes seems quite deep as opposed to the sparse nature of the position in the past. When there are at least 10 good TEs to choose from you really have to like the keeper draft value of Witten or Finley to retain them. Witten is gold in the 9th Rd and Finley in the 15 Rd for Yer X-MOM's consideration. But for Finley, you also need to consider whether or not he's ready to maintain a high level of performance as he hopes to reverse his past immaturity.

The other QB on Yer X-MOM's final roster is K Kolb. Kolb is the de facto recipient of the starting QB job for the Philadelphia Eagles following D McNabb's trade to the Washington Redskins. As such, Kolb will still compete with M Vick QB to play even though they are friends. If Vick continues to be a problem in society Kolb could be the only NFL starter on the Eagles roster. But is he ready? Some think so.

Every year Yer X-MOM dreads having to make the decision to let guys go from his final roster and it will be another tough decision this year as to who he should keep.

My Best Guess at Yer X-MOM's 2010 Keepers

The best guess at this point will be C Johnson RB as developmental for the 14th Rd pick since he seems to be one of the top 2 or 3 overall draft picks in most early fantasy football mock drafts. Alongside C Johnson is A Johnson in the 3d Rd since he is considered the top WR and is being drafted in the 1st Rd of many mock drafts as well. R Mendenhall RB is a solid pick for the 11th Rd and for now it appears he'd be a decent value too. The final keeper depends on a lot of things like who all is projected to be kept by other teams by Yer X-MOM and who he thinks will be the best value in 2010 and onward too. If Yer X-MOM wants to try for another dominant campaign and run for the championship then S Jackson RB is a safe pick as long as he recovers from his back surgery in time for a full season of production. But that is not so safe is it. It is hard to guess who else would be kept but TEs  J Witten and J Finley are also an excellent value keeper at Rd 9 and 15. At QB, P Rivers was an excellent commodity in Yer X-MOM's championship run and would also be a solid keeper for 2010 possibly. After C Johnson, A Johnson, and R Mendenhall, it is tough to project who the final keeper will be for Yer X-MOM in 2010. I'll just say S Jackson for now.

Brothers Keeper Third Party Consultant's Best Guess at Yer X-MOM's 2010 Keepers
"if it was me i would take andre johnson, chris johnson, kolb, and have finley as my developmental player. the value u would get on finley if he lives up to the hype would be better than everyone other than chris johnson finley is probly going to outscore the top and last TE drafted by atleast 350 combined! thats a crazy high diffrence u gotta take that risk to reap the biggest reward your ever. gonna get at least from a TE. value drafting key to winning u could keep mendenhall instead of kolb as well but would u risk the qb for the rb or just draft a new stud rookie rb later in the draft."

Looking Ahead 2010: CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS

This is the eighth post of a series of blogs covering each team from Brothers Keeper in detail. We began with the last place team and have moved up to the top of the league standings as it stood at the end of the 2009 fantasy football season (cf. Kabuki Strikes Back; CustodianPandemonium; Favre$Footlong; Ghost; Redmans CatPunters; Yankinfowlsandfeline; Simba's ButtKicker!). Eighth up, CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS (R Smith).

Overview of R Smith's Brothers Keeper History
2007 The Superbads: 8-6-0 (5th Place) 1524.17 points; 12 transactions
2008 Team Cake Farts: 6-7-0 (8th Place) 1174.03 points; 20 transactions
2009 CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS: 8-5-0 (3rd Place; Bronze Medalist) 1356.46 points; 13 transactions

2009 End of Season Commentary
The "Looking Ahead 2010" series of posts finally reaches the medalists of the league. CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS (R Smith) made the playoffs as the 3rd seeded team and played well enough to garner the bronze medal over Simba's ButtKicker! by a score of 127.02 to 100.64. Unfortunately, CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS was decimated by Yer X-MOM (P Smith) in the semifinals scoring a mere 68.95 to 124.59. That score resembles the results of their regular season week 5 matchup 99.61 to 46.28. That's nearly double the points in both games. But CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS picked himself up off the ground and swung mightily and successfully at Simba's ButtKicker! for the Bronze Medal Trophy:

To those who keep on in the fight 'till the end of the final game the rewards are won. R Smith didn't make too many transactions on the season (13) and only suffered one multi-game losing streak. His lower than average point totals and his 3d place seed combined with the fact that CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS only had one multi-game losing streak indicate that R Smith had an easy schedule of opponents. In fact, only 4 games during the regular season did his opponent score greater than 100 points. Of those 4 games he won 2. The first game of the playoffs also had an opponent score less than 100 points. The 3rd Place Game in the final week of the playoffs saw Simba's ButtKicker! score 100.64 points. So, while the fantasy fairy gave Ghost (B Garner) fits, she was sweet talked into a plush deal with CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS (R Smith)... or else she was just scared into it... it's really hard to tell when you are interacting with CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS.

While CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS may have had an easy schedule R Smith did have the talent to be productive. R Moss WR and D Brees QB have both been a staple of his team since the 2007 draft. Brees had yet to be the top QB in fantasy and R Moss had yet to play with T Brady in NE. Both have produced at high levels since. With D Brees at a 2d round pick twice and a 1st round pick in 2009 and R Moss as 5th round pick twice and a 4th round pick in 2009, R Smith is getting great value out of 2 of his top 5 picks every year. How long will that last? Will he be able to pull enough talent around those two in order to make a championship run in 2010? It remains to be seen but the foundation is there as it has been from the beginning to battle hard most weeks. I say most weeks, because R Smith had an obvious strategy when he loaded up on players who all shared the same bye week. And, on top of that, R Smith didn't sub in other guys to play on those bye weeks thus preserving potential developmental eligibility. That's a couple of sneaky strategies to accomplish the task of making it to the playoffs and preserving eligible players for a developmental status.

CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS's 2009 Draft
CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS (R Smith) had the 6th overall draft pick position in the 2009 draft due to his poor playoff performance in 2008. It should be noted that he has yet to miss a Brothers Keeper playoff. His 2009 draft results are thus (noting that those who were kept from his 2008 final roster:

1. (6) Drew Brees QB (Keeper)
2. (15) Ryan Grant RB
3. (26) Reggie Bush RB
4. (35) Randy Moss WR (Keeper)
5. (46) Larry Johnson RB
6. (55) Roy Williams WR
7. (66) Jeremy Shockey TE
8. (75) Bernard Berrian WR
9. (86) Mason Crosby K
10. (95) Eddie Royal WR
11. (106) Brett Favre QB
12. (115) Earnest Graham RB
13. (126) Carnell Williams RB
14. (135) Miami DEF
15. (146) Tim Hightower RB (Keeper)

CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS's Final 2009 Roster
I have included the 2010 draft round and pick overall (overall pick is in parentheses) value of each player on CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS final roster followed by the name of the player, player's position, total # of fantasy starts for the season (a * indicates developmental eligibility for 2010's draft; some players were on more than one team but their total starts for all teams is listed); and total fantasy points scored by the player for the 16 fantasy week season (which is not subject to the # of starts):
 
1. (7) Drew Brees QB (1st Rd Keeper Value); 15 fantasy starts; 398.62 fp
2. (14) Ryan Grant RB; 15 fantasy starts; 224.15 fp
3. (27) Reggie Bush RB; 11 fantasy starts; 151.09 fp
3. (27) Randy Moss WR; 15 fantasy starts; 224.2 fp
4. (34)
5. (47) Darren McFadden RB; *2 fantasy starts (2 with Custodian Pandemonium + 0 with CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS); 68.95 fp
6. (54) Roy Williams WR; 6 fantasy starts; 107.8 fp
6. (54) Owen Daniels TE; 6 fantasy starts (6 with Yankinfowlsandfeline + 0 with CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS); 95.95 fp
7. (67) Jeremy Shockey TE; 16 fantasy starts; 94.95 fp
8. (74)
9. (87) Mason Crosby K; 16 fantasy starts; 127 fp
10. (94) Beanie Wells RB; 5 fantasy starts; 136.45 fp
11. (107) Brett Favre QB; *1 fantasy starts; 373.68 fp
12. (114)
13. (127) Carnell Williams RB; 4 fantasy starts; 163.55 fp
14. (134) Tim Hightower RB; 10 fantasy starts; 184.2 fp
15. (147) Green Bay DEF; 15 fantasy starts; 174 fp
15. (147) Mario Manningham WR; 8 fantasy starts (2 with Yer X-MOM + 6 with CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS); 126.1 fp (Undrafted)

Looking Ahead at 2010
R Grant RB had a tremendous year in 2007. He was kept by R Johnson as a 14th round undrafted draft pick for the 2008 season. However, 2008 was a poor year for R Grant in fantasy production and was reluctantly released from R Johnson's roster. Taking the opportunity in the 2d round of the 2009 draft to pick up a quality RB to coincide with D Brees QB and R Moss WR was a nice move. Even better was drafting B Favre QB in the 11th round. Favre was only used once despite having one of his best years in his illustrious career. So he has a developmental eligility tag.

Another late 2009 draft pick came in the form of C Williams RB in the 13th round. E Graham RB, and D Ward RB were on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers roster already. C Williams was lucky to be on the team trying out for any job at all. C WIlliams was decimated in 2007 and 2008 by blowing out both knees catastrophically (back to back years!). He played in 4 games in 2007 and 6 games in 2008. Everyone expected him to be done. Shortly before the 2009 Brothers Keeper Fantasy Football BBQ Draft in Slidell, LA on Saturday August 29th, word was released that C Williams would be the 2009 starter; not E Graham or the newly acquired D Ward. R Smith took up the challenge and got a productive fantasy footballer. Not a top tier talent, but definitely a solid average fantasy start each week in 2009.

It's easy to pick D Brees QB, R Grant RB, and R Moss WR as the most likely candidates to be kept. The only downside to this possibility is that R Smith's first 3 picks of the 2010 draft would be used for slotted keepers. That's not a bad top three picks in a straight re-draft league. Most would be happy with those three. The success of O Daniels TE, B Wells RB, C Williams RB, T Hightower RB, and M Manningham WR might be worthy considerations as well because of their placement in the draft. However, they would not usurp the value seen in D Brees QB and R Moss WR. R Grant is the questionable one of the top three picks.

So let's see what R Smith has in the developmental eligibility department? D McFadden and B Favre played less than 3 games in fantasy. Favre may or may not come back for 2010 with Minnesota plus he appears to need ankle surgery (see also here; although the ankle injury may not matter since he's had ankle surgeries in the past and Favre himself has now commented on it). McFadden is talented but on a poor team in Oakland. It is unclear what the projections look like for these two in the short term or long term. Both are a possibility. If Favre is kept and it is clear he will play for the Vikings as their starting QB then the unique possibility arises for R Smith. Theoretically R Smith could keep Brees and trade Favre or Brees for other talent he deems necessary for his team. Or, instead of trading one of the QBs he could not keep Brees and have a 1st round draft pick in the 2010 draft and keep Favre as his starting QB as a developmental status and keep another player on his current roster like C Williams or M Manningham. There are some possibilities to toss around. There would need to be some forecasting of scenarios of first round picks in order to discover the potential available talent (akin to the work I did in this section of Yankinfowlsandfeline [J Smith]). But that's hard to do when you have the 7th pick in the draft. It's just as easy to stick with the keepers in the first three rounds and have an early 4th round pick with Favre ready to go in a trade or bye week substitute. But R Smith thinks about the future with his keepers like last year when he kept T Hightower. I would not be surprised to see M Manningham WR or B Wells RB as potential keepers while R Grant is tossed into the free agent pool.

My Best Guess at CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS's 2010 Keepers
D Brees QB (Rd 1); R Grant RB (Rd 2); R Moss WR (Rd 3) and B Favre QB (Rd 11) as developmental.
 
Brothers Keeper Third Party Consultant's Best Guess at CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS's 2010 Keepers
"ok i would keep brees, moss, wells and as the keeper i would take farve [as developmental] if he comes back. if not as the keeper i would keep mcfadden."

Looking Ahead 2010: Simba's Buttkicker!

This is the seventh post of a series of blogs covering each team from Brothers Keeper in detail. We will begin with the last place team and move to the top of the league standings as it stood at the end of the 2009 fantasy football season (cf. Kabuki Strikes Back; CustodianPandemonium; Favre$Footlong; Ghost; Redmans CatPunters; Yankinfowlsandfeline). Seventh up, Simba's Buttkicker! (R Johnson).

Overview of R Johnson's Brothers Keeper History
2007 Simba's Butt Kicker: 4-10-0 (9th Place) 1535.54 points; 49 transactions
2008 Simba's Buttkicker: 2-11-0 (10th Place) 1080.75 points; 40 transactions
2009 Simba's ButtKicker!: 7-6-0 (4th Place) 1455.30 points; 29 transactions

2009 End of Season Commentary
After a late morning IHOP breakfast M Peltonen and P Smith headed on over to the designated Brothers Keeper Fantasy Football BBQ Draft location where R Johnson was found. His well air conditioned office is a veritable place filled with objects of his trade and R Johnson prominently leaned back in his old chair. Always an entertaining talker he seemed to breath easy with his fantasy foes on his turf. He can take the easy pot shots and smile them off and keep on going with his stories with the occasional muttering about his back (around which he wore a brace). He's one of the elder statesmen underdignified fantasy players in Brothers Keeper. Just look at the track record: 9th Place (2007); 10th Place, a.k.a. last place (2008). He's missed the playoffs during the entire league's history. According to some reason, R Johnson hasn't yet studied for the draft but was just beginning his research away from home in a quiet office. So he's brought his laptop and is connected to the internet (contraband?). I have to hand it to a man of his age who knows how to get around the interwebs... well, Yahoo's fantasy sports stats anyhow... that's what's on the monitor. It's only 2 hours till draft time.

The chat inevitably turned to his #1 draft pick. There's a bit of talent available after the keeper declarations but he can pick any of them. Sure we talked about the teams after the keeper declaration and which ones seemed more poised. But R Johnson has the pick of the available talent. So why not confess. It's 2 hours till draft time. He's just started to study.

According to R Johnson's Yahoo Fantasy Sports profile, his current overall performance is 70%. He goes deep into the playoffs in most fantasy leagues he plays. Brothers Keeper fantasy football has been the anomaly. It's even more of an anomaly in Brothers Keeper because 8 of the 10 teams make the playoffs. He can play fantasy football, and even made sure to tell me about a 2009 fantasy football championship:

I know the other league is meaningless to you, but that was the team I had that kicked butt to all of you. Having won that league in the finals over Cleaning Lady, proved I was dominant there. So, my hope is that the team in this league will be to the standard I had in the other league.

R Johnson's hopes were 2 hours away at draft time. With M Turner RB, R White WR, and the NYG DEF already kept, R Johnson picked a legitimate top pick in D Williams RB. There was a fissure in the logic though. While D Williams was able to shine in 2008 for his fantasy owners it was in the shadow of a D Foster injury. This year J Stewart RB fantasy owners reaped the benefits of the D Williams injury. R Johnson felt it:

In reference to last year’s league, I was content with the final part of the season much more than I was at the beginning of the season with the draft. The reason being I, I did not think I did well in drafting certain players at the beginning. One for instance is DeAngelo Williams. He was a huge disappointment because of injuries toward the end of the season. He did fairly well at the beginning and toward the middle, but then diminished in his performance.

As an objective observer, starting your fantasy football draft studies 2 hours before draft time was also a contributor to the feeling of discontentment. The D Williams draft pick could have been avoided with further study. J Stewart RB was a highly touted talent and it was known as such when the Carolina Panthers drafted him in one of the best NFL Drafts for RBs in recent memory. J Stewart was drafted the same year as S Slaton, R Rice, C Johnson, R Mendenhall, T Choice, F Jones, M Forte, J Charles, K Smith, and D McFadden. J Stewart just happened to be hampered by lingering injuries his rookie year. But the time was definitely coming when he would at least share the RB carries with D Williams. He was too special to sit.

Maybe the early season malaise should be contributed to the poor talent pool of R Johnson's 2008 final roster? He did trade L Tomlinson RB to J Fullerton for M Turner RB (L Tomlinson's former backup in San Diego) in 2008 which was more beneficial to R Johnson than J Fullerton (by less than a point if one considers the final season fantasy point totals [see stats below]; I do not have records as to which week in 2008 the trade was made and the following fantasy points scored for each player after the trade). But neither player has been the first tier stud either one of them thought they were offering or getting in return. It was basically a middle of the draft value talent swap. It was not a blockbuster. Another oddity was R Johnson's choice to keep a DEF. No one had kept a DEF before in Brothers Keeper. Not sure a 12th round value for a DEF is all that great either. But it was his choice, even if unexplainable. The fruit of the draft arrived.

Trade Comparison:

L Tomlinson

2008 Total Fantasy Points: 256.30

2009 Total Fantasy Points: 168.70

Total: 425.00

M Turner

2008 Total Fantasy Points: 275.95

2009 Total Fantasy Points: 149.85

Total: 425.80

A Gates TE, M Schaub QB, and B Roethlisberger QB were also quite productive. A better talent pool than previous years netted a much more competitive team than R Johnson had historically. Still not great, but more competitive than previous years. Simba's ButtKicker! did beat Yankinfowlsandfeline to end the regular season and finalize his place in his first Brothers Keeper playoffs. However his team's lack of dominance was exhibited by two close games in the playoffs. He narrowly downed Favre$Footlong (D Kessler) 127.03 to 128.15. R Johnson then made his exit in the semifinals against Sea Buzzards (M Peltonen) losing 115.25 to 117.38.

Overall, I think I was happy in the final part of the season. Especially when I kicked Yank’s butt before the playoffs and won the first playoff game only to be eliminated in the next game by a few measly points because of Williams not playing after that injury in that game. I only had to win that one game and then I would have had to play [Yer X-MOM (P Smith)]. Instead, [Yer X-MOM] took the brass ring in the finals.

This may not have been a very good strategy for R Johnon's future. The further he went into the playoffs the worse his draft pick position would be in 2010. In three years of Brothers Keeper drafting he has had 2 number one draft picks and 1 number two draft pick. He's never had anything past the third pick in the draft. With the 2009 4th place finish he will now suffer by drafting eighth. For a person who needs all the draft help he can get this might not be a good thing. It will all depend on his draft prep. Here's what he says about that:

Till draft time this year, I’ll see you then! Meanwhile, it is now baseball season, and I look to do great like I do every year.

Simba's ButtKicker!'s 2009 Draft
Simba's Buttkicker! (R Johnson) had the 1st overall draft pick position in the 2009 draft thanks to his poor 2008 season last place finish. His 2009 draft results are thus (noting that those who were kept from his 2008 final roster:

1. (1) DeAngelo Williams RB
2. (20) Antonio Gates TE
3. (21) Michael Turner RB (Keeper)
4. (40) Roddy White WR (Keeper)
5. (41) Matt Schaub QB
6. (60) Kevin Walter WR
7. (61) Derrick Ward RB
8. (80) Darren Sproles RB
9. (81) Ben Roethlisberger QB
10. (100) Ahmad Bradshaw RB
11. (101) Jerricho Cotchery WR
12. (120) New York Giants DEF (Keeper)
13. (121) Nate Kaeding K
14. (140) John Carlson TE
15. (141) Chaz Schilens WR

Simba's ButtKicker!'s Final 2009 Roster
I have included the 2010 draft round and pick overall (overall pick is in parentheses) value of each player on Simba's ButtKicker!'s final roster followed by the name of the player, player's position, total # of fantasy starts for the season (a * indicates developmental eligibility for 2010's draft; some players were on more than one team but their total starts for all teams is listed); and total fantasy points scored by the player for the 16 fantasy week season (which is not subject to the # of starts):

1. (8) DeAngelo Williams RB; 12 fantasy starts; 191.30 fp
2. (13) Antonio Gates TE; 12 fantasy starts; 184.85 fp
2. (13) Michael Turner RB (Keeper); 9 fantasy starts; 149.85 fp
3. (28) Roddy White WR (Keeper); 12 fantasy starts; 208.85 fp
4. (33)
5. (48) Matt Schaub QB; 8 fantasy starts; 8 384.50 fp
6. (53)
7. (68)
8. (73) Darren Sproles RB; 11 fantasy starts; 199.57 fp
9. (88) Ben Roethlisberger QB; 8 fantasy starts; 350.32 fp
10. (93) Ahmad Bradshaw RB; *3 fantasy starts; 148.98 fp
11. (108)
12. (113)
13. (128)
14. (133)
15. (148) R Willaims B; 8 fantasy starts; 234.30 fp (Undrafted)
15. (148) J Cribbs WR; *3 fantasy starts (1 with Redmans CatPunters + 2 with Simba's ButtKicker!); 162.05 fp (Undrafted)
15. (148) Q Ganther RB; *2 fantasy starts; 52.68 fp (Undrafted)
15. (148) R Meachem WR; *3 fantasy starts; 152.23 fp (Undrafted)
15. (148) M Sims-Walker WR; 7 fantasy starts; 146.45 fp (Undrafted)
15. (148) S Janikowski K; *1 fantasy starts; 113.00 fp (Undrafted)
15. (148) Cincinnati DEF; 6 fantasy starts (1 with Redman's CatPunters + 5 with Simba's ButtKicker!; 134.00 fp (Undrafted)

Looking Ahead at 2010
In 2007 R Johnson drafted A Boldin WR in the 5th round. He was not kept and A Boldin had a tremendous 2008 scoring 207.60 fantasy points in 13 games. In 2008 R Johnson drafted R Mendenhall RB in the 10th round. He dropped Mendenhall because W Parker RB was still the starter. Mendenhall became the starter in 2010 scoring 191.12 fantasy points. If there's anything that should be a concern for R Johnson, it should be his ability to draft, keep, trade for, and scavenge free agency to find players who will be good in the future. R Johnson's 2009 final roster is better in talent than his final roster from 2008. If the trend continues he might be worth considering as a serious contender by 2011. 2010 should be a year to continue to build on his success from 2009 and avoid taking steps backwards. Going backwards in the standings is not as essential as going in reverse in the talent pool. Only A gates TE is at the end of his prime. R Johnson was willing to discuss his insights about the future:

Turner was okay and I will keep him for another season. I might also keep Sproles since Tomlinson was traded and now it looks like Sproles will be the starting running back this next season for San Diego. I haven’t decided to keep Williams yet. I have to think about it some more, because it is a toss up between Roddy White and Williams.

This is an interesting situation. If he maintains 2 RBs (M Turner and D Sproles) he will probably want to keep another position player other than RB for his last potential keeper. Evaluating any developmental eligible players will be beneficial in narrowing down who that last keeper could be. J Cribbs WR and R Meachem WR seem to be legitimate contenders as developmental eligible keepers. A Bradshaw RB doesn't seem to be a fit with D Sproles and M Turner and D Williams as viable options at RB.

R Johnson has had an affinity toward R White WR in Brothers Keeper. He's been on R Johnson's team the past two seasons. This could end with the presence of J Cribbs or R Meachem as a keeper because of the depth of talent at QB. With B Roethlisberger worth a 9th round draft pick and M Schaub worth a 5th round pick you know there's less room for R White if what R Johnson has said is true. I doubt Roethlisberger will be kept because of the exit of S Holmes WR to the NYJ and if Roethlisberger is subject to any sort of suspension (can someone say "no, this is not OK"), thus diminishing any fantasy value completely the weeks the suspension is served. Regardless, M Schaub was the more productive QB on R Johnson's team. Both are definitely steals in the rounds they could be kept in while R White WR is a legit 3d round pick, he's just not as good of a deal. Same goes with A Gates TE. He produced in 2009 at a level that was acceptable for the 2d round pick that he was but he doesn't seem to be as good a deal especially when you consider his age or the fact that he would forfeit his 1st round pick in order to keep two 2d round picks in M Turner and A Gates. There is a far chance that R Johnson might do away with Sproles and keep R White instead. That would allow him to draft a different RB, or D Sproles in the 1st round and still have M Turner, R White, M Schaub, and J Cribbs or R Meachem. That is a solid start to a fantasy future in 2010 and 2011.

My Best Guess at Simba's ButtKicker!'s 2010 Keepers
M Turner RB (Rd 2), M Schaub (Rd 5) D Sproles RB (Rd 8), and R Meachem (Rd 15). Meachem is a hometown favorite playing for the Superbowl Champion New Olreans Saints. Plus J Cribbs is on a sub-par team with older sub-par QBs as potential passers (J Delhomme and S Wallace) instead of the elite D Bress.
 
Brothers Keeper Third Party Consultant's Best Guess at Simba's ButtKicker!'s 2010 Keepers
"roddy white, mike turner, matt shaub, and meach as the keeper. atlanta's schedule should work out well for the falcons they had a bad yr last year. shaub was the 3rd best fantasy qb last yr and he gets owen daniels back and meach was an easy choice for a keeper he should have a good yr next yr cuz the saints are a spread team. each should be right behind colston in targets."

Looking Ahead 2010: Yankinfowlsandfeline

This is the sixth post of a series of blogs covering each team from Brothers Keeper in detail. We began with the last place team and are moving toward the top of the league standings as it stood at the end of the 2009 fantasy football season (cf. Kabuki Strikes Back; CustodianPandemonium; Favre$Footlong; Ghost; Redmans CatPunters). Sixth up, Yankinfowlsandfeline (J Smith).

Overview of J Smith's Brothers Keeper History
2007 Yank 9-5-0 (1st Place) 1723.24 points; 42 transactions
2008 YANKINHALOSKIKINCATS: 4-9-0 (9th Place) 1392.81 points; 30 transactions
2009 Yankinfowlsandfeline: 10-3-0 (5th Place) 1717.89 points; 27 transactions

2009 End of Season Commentary

2001 and 2004 were excellent years. In 2001 the Arizona Diamondbacks became World Champions in one of my all time favorite sporting moments of my life. In 2004 the Boston Red Sox became American League Champions and subsequently World Champions. The loser to each of those teams is derided and hated with more vitriol than the Dallas Cowboys. You either love the New York Yankees or you hate them. Seeing them choke a great choke will either bring tears to your eyes or raise your dimples high with glee. Get the newspapers. Get the feeling of a city downcast and depressed. Get the joy over the down fall of another.

In Brothers Keeper 2009 we saw a historic collapse. A great choke. Perhaps the choke of chokes. Yankinfowlsandfeline topped the league in total points scored almost all season long by a huge margin (1717.89 total which was 215.04 points over the second highest season total posted by Ghost [B Garner]). Yankinfowlsandfeline had only been bested three times in the regular fantasy season. Two of those losses he scored over 110 points. The third loss had him score over 100 points. The teams he lost to played their best games of the season in order to gain the victory. In the 2d week Yankinfowlsandfeline lost to Yer X-MOM  (P Smith) 118.66 - 181.59. In the 10th week Yankinfowlsandfeline lost to Favre$Footlong (D Kessler) 111.46 - 132.58. The third loss of the regular season came in week 13 to Simba's Buttkicker! (R Johnson) 103.19 - 133.65. It was Simba's Buttkicker!'s 2d highest scoring game of the season. The average amount of points Yankinfowlsandfeline won by was 34.63 points in his regular season victories. The average amount of points he lost by in his 3 regular season losses was 38.17 points. It took a very good fantasy week to beat Yankinfowlsandfeline.

Yankinfowlsandfeline lost 2 out of his last 4 regular season games but had never lost back to back weeks. The lowest scoring game of the season for Yankinfowlsandfeline was the 103.19 - 133.65 loss to Simba's Buttkicker! in the final regular season game. The ominous clouds were lurking at the door of the playoffs just vexing their might. J Smith had no idea what would play out next. In fact, he was probably a cool cat (wrong metaphor probably in this league) on the outside. He was probably walking tall ready for whatever may come his way. He'd been dominant. He just had to be sure to set his lineup.

As the number one seed entering the playoffs Yankinfowlsandfeline was matched up against the number 8 seed. Easy pickin's. His opponent had only scored 1396.22 points on the season. J Smith had scored a cool 321.67 points more; probably enough for 3 weeks worth of wins. Yankinfowlsandfeline had points to spare. Sea Buzzards (M Peltonen) had a 4 game losing streak at the end of the regular season. He backed into the playoffs. He had the same win-loss record as the guy in 9th place. He made it to the playoffs on just a higher total season point total than that 9th place team. There was no way he'd handle the likes of the number 1 seed. It was going to be a joy ride for Yankinfowlsandfeline to get to the championship let alone the semifinals.

What began as a practical breeze grew into a storm of fury. Yankinfowlsandfeline scored his second lowest point total on the year scoring 104.45 points. The week before was his lowest total... that loss to Simba's Buttkicker! (R Johnson). It's not like Yankinfowlsandfeline was going to go below that. He had top of the league fantasy producers in A Rodgers at QB. He had M Jones-Drew and R Rice at RB. He had one of the better TEs in B Celek who replaced the injured O Daniels (who is recovering well from his torn ACL). S Smith (Car) and M Colston just had to do average at WR. This was not supposed to be a hard game. But it was. A Rodgers QB threw only for 180 yards. No TDs. Ok. M Jones-Drew RB flopped 59 yards rushing and 1 TD with only 24 yards receiving. R Rice RB tried to salvage the week with 166 rushing yards, another 53 yards receiving, and a TD. But it wasn't enough to stem the onslaught of sub par performance. "For crying out loud Sea Buzzards only scored an average of 107.04 points a week for the regular season. Surely this team could have been beaten?" That's the thought life of any New York Yankee in this situation.

Let's call it what it was: a Choke. The long time tradition of choke continues. Where will it strike again? A rib? A ham bone? A Sea Buzzard? Major chokage happens and it could happen to you. This year it just happened to the guy who names himself after a strong tradition of choke. Sounds fitting: Yankinfowlsandfeline. No repeat championship for you.

Yankinfowlsandfeline's 2009 Draft

Yankinfowlsandfeline (J Smith) had the 2d overall draft pick position in the 2009 draft due to his poor 2008 season. His 2009 draft results are thus (noting that those who were kept from his 2008 final roster):

1. (2) Steve Smith WR (CAR)

2. (19) Maurice Jones-Drew RB (Keeper)

3. (22) Marques Colston WR (Keeper)

4. (39) Ray Rice RB

5. (42) Anthony Gonzalez WR

6. (59) Owen Daniels TE

7. (62) Cedric Benson RB

8. (79) Devin Hester WR

9. (82) Jake Delhomme QB
10. (99) Beanie Wells RB
11. (102) New York Jets DEF
12. (119) Aaron Rodgers QB (Keeper)

13. (122) Fred Taylor RB

14. (139) Brent Celek TE
15. (142) Jason Elam K

Yankinfowlsandfeline's Final 2009 Roster

I have included the 2010 draft round and pick overall (overall pick is in parentheses) value of each player on Yankinfowlsandfeline's final roster followed by the name of the player, player's position, total # of fantasy starts for the season (a * indicates developmental eligibility for 2010's draft; some players were on more than one team but their total starts for all teams is listed); and total fantasy points scored by the player for the 16 fantasy week season (which is not subject to the # of starts):

1. (3) Steve Smith WR (CAR) (1st Rd Keeper Value); 10 fantasy starts; 160.30 fp
1. (3) Maurice Jones-Drew RB (1st Rd Keeper Value); 15 fantasy starts; 308.83 fp

2. (18) Marques Colston WR (Keeper); 15 fantasy starts; 174.50 fp

3. (23)
4. (38) Ray Rice RB; 14 fantasy starts; 289.00 fp
5. (43)

6. (58) Kevin Walter WR; *3 fantasy starts (2 with CYBROG PIRATE NINJAS + 1 with Yankinfowlsandfeline); 98.15 fp

7. (63) Cedric Benson RB; 7 fantasy starts; 183.65 fp

8. (78)

9. (83)

10. (98)
11. (103) Aaron Rodgers QB (Keeper); 15 fantasy starts; 431.96 fp
12. (118)

13. (123)

14. (138) Brent Celek TE; 10 fantasy starts; 172.55 fp

14. (138) John Carlson TE; 4 fantasy starts (4 with Simba's Buttkicker!); 121.70 fp

15. (143) Garrett Hartley K; *3 fantasy starts; 34.00 fp

15. (143) Justin Forsett RB; *3 fantasy starts; 165.87 fp

15. (143) Kyle Orton QB; *1 fantasy starts; 269.18 fp
15. (143) Shayne Graham K; *2 fantasy starts (1 with Yer X-MOM + 1 with Yankinfowlsandfeline); 98.00 fp
15. (143) New Orleans DEF; 7 fantasy starts; 175.00 fp
15. (143) Tampa Bay DEF; *2 fantasy starts; 116.00 fp

Looking Ahead at 2010

Yankinfowlsandfeline's keeper selection should be pretty easy. The 3 keepers at the top of the list will be M Jones-Drew RB, R Rice RB, and A Rodgers QB. That only burns a 1st, 4th and 11th round draft picks. If he's hungry for a developmental player he can keep K Walter WR for a 6th round pick. Might be an overpayment for Walter but not by much. The 3 regular keepers are no brainers. I doubt one would keep S Smith (Car) WR for a 1st round pick but he is a worthy WR to consider along with M Colston in the 2d round, C Benson RB in the 7th round, and B Celek TE in the 14th round. It's just that M Jones-Drew, R Rice, and A Rodgers are so much more dominant for their positions.

With Jones-Drew, Rice, and Rodgers in the fold J Smith is poised to do what he did again this year as long as most of his draft is slightly above average in 2010. He won't have a first round pick if he keeps M Jones-Drew or S Smith (Car). So his #3 draft pick position will not be much of a benefit until round 3. He'd have a 2d and 3d round pick and most everything after the 4th round to build his team. One aspect Yankinfowlsandfeline may want to consider is that he could theoretically throw M Jones-Drew into the player pool and keep another player other than S Smith (Car) and draft M Jones-Drew in the 3d pick overall int he 1st round. That would mean Kabuki Strikes back (J Fullerton) 1st pick overall, and CustodianPandimonium (R Smith) 2d pick overall, both either need to keep their 1st round picks or if one or the other does not keep their 1st round pick, would need to pass over M Jones-Drew so that he falls to Yankinfowlsandfeline to be able to draft. Is this scenario possible? Did winning the consolation bracket help J Smith after all?

1st pick overall, Kabuki Strikes Back (J Fullerton) will most likely be one that is used to keep P Manning QB. If P Manning isn't kept, L Tomlinson RB or B Jacobs RB could be kept there as well. My best guess was P Manning QB will be kept. So one pick down. One to go.

2d pick overall goes to the saavy fantasy football drafter, CustodianPandimonium (R Smith). His 1st round potential keeper is B Westbrook RB, who currently does not have a job. Even if Westbrook does have one by the time draft day comes around, CustodianPandimonium would most likely pass ont he often injured RB and keep better draft value picks like V Jackson WR, K Smith RB (who is on schedule with his ACL rehab), W Welker WR, J Charles RB, D Jackson WR, or J Flacco QB (who appears to benefit from the offseason transactions). H Ward WR or even S Smith (NYG) WR also are possibilities. Westbrook just fails in comparison to any of them and with the vitriol any fantasy player may have toward a fantasy bust the 1st round pick will be available to CustodianPandimonium. Would CustodianPandimonium draft M Jones-Drew for the first overall pick if available? Probably, although it may depend on who else is available in the talent pool along with his own draft needs. But to pass on M Jones-Drew as a 1st round pick would be extremely tough. Therefore it would be very unlikely that M Jones-Drew would not drop to Yankinfowlsandfeline in the 2010 fantasy football draft if M Jones-Drew was not kept by Yankinfowlsandfeline. This is definitely a fantasy football strategy to consider nonetheless going forward.

My Best Guess at Yankinfowlsandfeline's 2010 Keepers

M Jones-Drew RB (1st round), R Rice RB (4th round), and A Rodgers QB (11th round) with K Walter WR (6th round) as the only possible developmental status keeper. It is doubtful that a developmental keeper is retained. K Orton QB could be a longshot developmental keeper (after all, he is the named 2010 Broncos starter despite the acquisition of B Quinn QB)

 

Brothers Keeper Third Party Consultant's Best Guess at Yankinfowlsandfeline's 2010 Keepers

"i would keep mjd, ray rice and aaron rodgers as far as a [developmental] i would keep forsett all the other keeper options will be available with late picks in the draft forsett had some beasty games last year and if seattle doesnt draft a rb he should have good value."

Looking Ahead 2010: Redmans CatPunters

This is the fifth post of a series of blogs covering each team from Brothers Keeper in detail. We began with the last place team and are moving toward the top of the league standings as it stood at the end of the 2009 fantasy football season (cf. Kabuki Strikes Back; CustodianPandemonium; Favre$Footlong; Ghost). Fifth up, Redmans CatPunters (D Pilcher). My apologies for the delay.

Overview of D Pilcher's Brothers Keeper History
2007 RedMans Warriors: 10-4-0 (7th Place) 1795.57 points; 39 transactions
2008 RedMans CatChuckers: 7-6-0 (6th Place) 1303.53 points; 33 transactions
2009 Redmans CatPunters: 6-7-0 (6th Place) 1494.79 points; 14 transactions

2009 End of Season Commentary

There are rules for this kind of thing. The Tom Brady rule allows for a previously kept player to earn a new developmental status eligibility if played less than 3 times total in a fantasy season (including playoffs) due to injury. Reman's CatPunters entered 2009 exercising this canonical right. With T Brady QB, R Wayne WR, and M Forte RB all in the fold for Redman's CatPunters, it seemed like 2009 was his championship to lose. However, that darned obstacle called a draft was still in the way.

Some inconsistent choices were made. For instance, while P Thomas RB was highly effective when he played in 2009, it was known that he was injured before the season began. When you have a T Brady QB by round one why do you pick a E Manning QB in round 5? No fantasy owner can start 2 QBs at the same time. That means one of your top 5 picks is going to be benched every week. Not quite understandable until you realize the fear that D Pilcher had concerning the loss of T Brady in 2008. Understandable I guess. But take a look at the 6rh pick: S Greene RB. The NY Jets had L Washington and T Jones at the helm of the RB position. Carries to a rookie RB were going to be sparse. That's 2 of your top 6 picks overall that are going to be benched weekly. That, my friends, is what the internet calls a FAIL. It's like the Olympic hurdler hitting half his hurdles if you consider the P Thomas injury. Perhaps something more was eating poor Gilbert Grape. O wait. This is the same guy who drafts Closers without end in fantasy baseball and usually wins deep into the playoffs.

But this is fantasy football and when the playoffs arrived, Redman's CatPunters exited quickly only to win enough to lose the consolation 5th place game. He entered the playoffs at the 6th seed and the playoffs left him 6th in the standings. A lot of good those 3 weeks proved to be. Actually, if you look at his past 3 seasons, he's maintained these subpar standards. He's a 100% 6.3 place guy. Not as bad as Simba's ButtKicker! (R Johnson) but not as good as Ghost (B Garner) either. A lot of good these 3 years has done on Ol' Scratch's trophy case. A little draft medicine may be in the doctor's orders.

Redmans CatPunters's 2009 Draft
Redmans CatPunters (D Pilcher) had the 4th overall draft pick position in the 2009 draft. His 2009 draft results are thus (noting that those who were kept from his 2008 final roster):

1. (4) Tom Brady QB (Keeper)
2. (17) Reggie Wayne WR (Keeper)
3. (24) Pierre Thomas RB
4. (37) Matt Forte RB (Keeper)
5. (44) Eli Manning QB
6. (57) Shonn Greene RB
7. (64) Chris Cooley TE
8. (77) Philadelphia DEF
9. (84) Fred Jackson RB
10. (97) Donald Driver WR
11. (104) LeSean McCoy RB
12. (117) Rob Bironas K
13. (124) David Garrard QB
14. (137) Muhsin Muhammad WR
15. (144) Antonio Bryant WR (Keeper as Developmental)

Redmans CatPunters's Final 2009 Roster
I have included the 2010 draft round and pick overall (overall pick is in parentheses) value of each player on Redman CatPunter's final roster followed by the name of the player, player's position, total # of fantasy starts for the season (a * indicates developmental eligibility for 2010's draft; some players were on more than one team but their total starts for all teams is listed); and total fantasy points scored by the player for the 16 fantasy week season (which is not subject to the # of starts):
 
1. (4) Tom Brady QB (Keeper); 15 fantasy starts; 362.32 fp
1. (4) Reggie Wayne WR (Keeper); 15 fantasy starts; 221.20 fp
2. (17)
3. (24) Pierre Thomas RB; 11 fantasy starts; 180.03 fp
3. (24) Matt Forte RB (Keeper); 14 fantasy starts; 193.45 fp
4. (37)
5. (44) Eli Manning QB; *0 fantasy starts; 304.34 fp
6. (57)
7. (64)
8. (77) Philadelphia DEF; 12 fantasy starts; 163.00 fp
8. (77) Tennessee DEF; 7 fantasy starts (4 with Sea Buzzards + 3 with Redmans CatPunters); 117 fp
9. (84) Fred Jackson RB; 13 fantasy starts; 233.93 fp
9. (84) G Olsen TE; 13 fantasy starts (4 with Sea Buzzards + 9 with Redmans CatPunters); 138.60 fp
10. (97) Donald Driver WR; 15 fantasy starts; 158.35 fp
11. (104) LeSean McCoy RB; 5 fantasy starts; 143.10 fp
12. (117)
13. (124)
14. (137) Antonio Bryant WR (Keeper as Developmental); *1 fantasy starts; 93.00 fp
15. (144) M Bell RB; *0 fantasy starts; 97.50 fp (Undrafted)
15. (144) F Davis TE; *0 fantasy starts; 109.45 fp (Undrafted)
15. (144) L Tynes K; 12 fantasy starts; 128 fp (Undrafted)

Looking Ahead at 2010
Potential is a funny word. Potential could become squandered. Ask the 30 year old C Palmer QB if his potential has been squandered. I bet he might be furious inside. At least he has the money to show for it. I guess. For Redman's CatPunters I see the potential for squander. T Brady and R Wayne are nearing the end of their peak years of performance. They might be able to keep Redman's CatPunters in 6th place again, you know, just those two alone. They are easily the front runner picks to be kept.

If the RB situation in New Orleans is thinned with the exit of R Bush RB in th offseason, then P Thomas seems to be a keeper to consider too. Caughing up M Forte RB might be a good or bad move after his surgery. We're not yet sure. A new OC in Chicago could be a world of good or just further evidence of a Refrigerator's Curse. F Jackson RB could maintain his position as starter in Buffalo, but he's doubtful to be kept unless his draft position is attractive enough. Because, when you face it, who wants to poke around the cadavar that the Bills are with the loss of all their coaching staff? Even more so, L McCoy RB is the future in Philadelphia whenever he and K Kolb QB usurp the duo of B Westbrook RB and D McNabb QB. But it could be two years away... not 2010 away.

My Best Guess at Redmans CatPunters's 2010 Keepers

Because Redmans CatPunters seems so willing to occupy the 6th place spot annually I am going to guess he stays with the two guys who have kept him there the past 3 years in T Brady QB and R Wayne WR. After that, it is a toss up between MForte RB, P Thomas RB, and L McCoy RB. L McCoy could have been a developmental eligible keeper but he was played 2 too many times. If Redmans CatPunters wants to show up late for the 2010 draft he mind as well keep P Thomas or M Forte. At least he'd hurdle his first three obstacles called draft picks. Don't you think Redmans CatPunters looks the same as Redmans DraftHurdles? I do. Perhaps a name change will be in order.
 
Brothers Keeper Third Party Consultant's Best Guess at Redmans CatPunters's 2010 Keepers
"he's got two easy one's in brady and wayne but after that i hard to decide between forte, pierre, mccoy and fred jackson. u already know forte, pierre and mccoy are gonna start but i really dont think they were better per game start vs fred jackson he was a top the rb the first three weeks of the season then lynch came back and stole his carries not cuz of but cuz of the buffalo pays him. if it was me i would keep jackson if lynch is traded if not i would have forte as far as keepers go i would keep fred davis or mike bell toss up cuz bell could steal a bunch of carries from mccoy and fred davis could start over cooley either way both are backups and both could end up starting but i would favor davis."

Just got to see one more hurdle failure:

Looking Ahead 2010: Ghost

This is the fourth post of a series of blogs covering each team from Brothers Keeper in detail. We began with the last place team and we are moving to the top of the league standings as it stood at the end of the 2009 fantasy football season (cf. Kabuki Strikes Back; CustodianPandemonium; Favre$Footlong). Fourth up, Ghost (B Garner).

Overview of B Garner's Brothers Keeper History
2007 Ghost: 5-9-0 (3d Place) 1396.69 points; 12 transactions
2008 Ghost: 10-3-0 (2d Place) 1482.78 points; 9 transactions
2009 Ghost: 5-8-0 (7th Place) 1502.85 points; 8 transactions

2009 End of Season Commentary

"All Day" (A Peterson RB), the former OU standout, has been a mainstay on Ghost's team since the 3d round of Brothers Keeper's inaugural 2007's draft. Ghost has been competitive ever since. The fact that Ghost was only 5-8-0 for the season with a 7th place playoff seed and 7th place finish doesn't do his team justice. Ghost had the second highest total of fantasy points scored for the season in the league. Ghost had a difficult schedule.

Sometimes you get bit by the fantasy fairy who makes your season schedule. It seems to happen once a year to at least one team if you are in an average of 3 fantasy football leagues. Basically your team is blessed with one of the best point scoring teams in the league but your record is horrid because every week your opponent's team has their best game of the season. Curse the fairy or die trying if you are that team. Ghost tried hard. Ending the season on 4 consecutive losses with another 2 more in a row in the playoffs for a 6 game skid is definitely frustrating. If he had not had so many points scored through the regular season he could have been the 8th seed playoff team and made it to the Semifinals by overcoming Yankinfowlsandfeline (J Smith). Instead, it was Sea Buzzards (M Peltonen) who got the easy Quarterfinal matchup and made it to the Championship against the number 2 seed Yer X-MOM (P Smith) who deftly submerged Ghost's playoffs hopes in that Quarterfinal game. Ghost got bit by the fantasy fairy twice. Once in the regular season and once in the playoffs. What did the Ghost do to deserve that?

In 2007, Ghost was the 8th seed playoff team who won the 3d place bronze trophy over the number 2 seed Yer X-MOM. Ghost never gave tribute to the fantasy fairy for that or the 2008 season. Lesson learned: Don't tick off the fantasy fairy by ignoring her. Send her your annual dues today.

In fantasy reality (isn't that an oxymoron?) it was another story. Ghost's season point total was high and his team was on the cusp of greatness until... his number one pick overall in the 2009 Brothers Keeper Fantasy Football BBQ Draft went kind of bust. A Boldin WR had an outstanding season for Yer X-MOM in 2008 scoring 207.60 fantasy points making him the most productive fantasy player per game (not counting his lost games due to that monster hit of an injury). Plus he was a 7th round draft pick in 2008. Ghost had amazing keepers in 2009 from 2008's team. Keeping A Peterson RB and Calvin Johnson WR and Jay Cutler QB was a fantastic foundation to begin building around. A Boldin made sense considering his 2008 fantasy production. L Fitzgerald WR, E Doucet WR, and S Breaston WR also receive passes from K Warner QB in Arizona. That's a lot of talent to throw to. A Boldin was going to suffer slightly regardless of injury concerns. Was he really worth a number 1 draft pick?

But worse than Boldin, was Calvin Johnson's WR, J Cutler's QB and M Ryan's QB unforeseen fall in fantasy production. Calvin Johnson inherited a rookie QB while J Cutler inherited a new team. In Garner's own words "the Bears ruined a great QB!" M Ryan is still a year or so away from being a top ten fantasy producer. Who else could you turn to in order to produce fantasy points at QB? The inconsistent D Garrard QB (a.k.a. "the town bike" because everyone had a ride)? Ghost was a QB short of a very dominant team in 2009... and maybe he'll pay off the fantasy fairy in the offseason before 2010 arrives. However, he still drafted nicely with P Harvin WR as a force to be reckoned with in the years to come (if the Minnesota Vikings stay with veteran talents like B Favre at QB). T Jones RB also produced good results. But his time with the NY Jets may be coming to an end. Ghost really did get bit by the fantasy fairy twice.

Ghost's transactions were not perfect however. He dropped the drafted L Maroney RB who turned into a fantasy producer for the first time in his career. His previous 3 seasons were useless for fantasy purposes. 2009 finally demonstrated Maroney was worthy of a fantasy team's roster spot. Beginning in week 6 Maroney scored noteworthy fantasy points total in 7 of the next 10 weeks of fantasy play (this excludes his week 16 performance of 0.20 points). He ended the season with a total of 149.95 points. Maroney could have single-handedly catapulted Ghost into a better playoff seed or better playoff performance. But he was let go on Monday October 12th. Six days later on Sunday October 18th the New England Patriots trounced the Tennessee Titans 59-0 in week 6 of the NFL season, the first week of Maroney's attack of the disloyal owners.

Ghost's 2009 Draft
Ghost (B Garner) had the 9th overall draft pick position in the 2009 draft thanks to his strong playoff performance in 2008 gaining him the silver medal trophy (2d place). His 2009 draft results are thus (noting that those who were kept from his 2008 final roster:

1. (9) Anquan Boldin WR
2. (12) Adrian Peterson RB (Keeper)
3. (29) Thomas Jones RB
4. (32) Calvin Johnson WR (Keeper)
5. (49) Dallas Clark TE
6. (52) Jay Cutler QB (Keeper)
7. (69) Willis McGahee RB
8. (72) Pittsburgh DEF
9. (89) Percy Harvin WR
10. (92) David Akers K
11. (109) Julius Jones RB
12. (112) Laveranues Coles WR
13. (129) Laurence Maroney RB
14. (132) Heath Miller TE
15. (149) Matt Ryan QB (Keper)

Ghost's Final 2009 Roster
I have included the 2010 draft round and pick overall (overall pick is in parentheses) value of each player on Ghost's final roster followed by the name of the player, player's position, total # of fantasy starts for the season (a * indicates developmental eligibility for 2010's draft; some players were on more than one team but their total starts for all teams is listed); and total fantasy points scored by the player for the 16 fantasy week season (which is not subject to the # of starts):

1. (5) Anquan Boldin WR; 14 fantasy starts; 162.40 fp
1. (5) Adrian Peterson RB (2009 Keeper); 15 fantasy starts; 299.70 fp
2. (16)
3. (25) Thomas Jones RB; 15 fantasy starts; 237.10 fp
3. (25) Calvin Johnson WR (2009 Keeper); 12 fantasy starts; 149.50 fp
4. (36)
5. (45) Dallas Clark TE; 15 fantasy starts; 216.40 fp
5. (45) Jay Cutler QB (2009 Keeper); 14 fantasy starts; 297.94 fp
5. (45) Larry Johnson RB; *2 fantasy starts (2 with CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS); 73.20 fp
6. (56)
7. (65) Willis McGahee RB; 5 fantasy starts; 155.65 fp
8. (76) Pittsburgh DEF; 15 fantasy starts; 129.00 fp
9. (85) Percy Harvin WR; 8 fantasy starts; 199.53 fp
9. (85) Braylon Edwards WR; 5 fantasy starts (1 with Favre$Footlong + 4 with Ghost); 103.00 fp
10. (96) David Akers K; 15 fantasy starts; 145.00 fp
11. (105)
12. (116)
13. (125)
14. (136) Heath Miller TE; *1 fantasy starts; 151.45 fp
14. (136) Matt Ryan QB (2009 Keper); *2 fantasy starts; 233.54 fp
15. (145) Austin Collie WR; *2 fantasy starts; 136.17 fp (Undrafted)

Looking Ahead at 2010
Ghost (B Garner) is upbeat about 2010 and beyond: "My team is young and will be a team to watch out for, for many years to come!!!" That's confidence. After all, he used three exclamation marks. There's nothing wrong with confidence most of the time. Some people have more confidence in this league than others. Take R Johnson for example. He's only made the playoffs once. Ghost's confidence can tell you he has made it deep into the playoffs the previous two years and 2009 was the attack of the fantasy fairy whereby he came out relatively unscathed on the injury front.

If one were to compare his team to the top 7 picks of Favre$Footlong's (D Kessler) 2009 draft then yes, his "team is young." But how young is Ghost's final roster which is available to him to build from? Excluding the kickers and team defense from each team, here is the average age of the skill position players (what their age will be at the beginning of 2010's season) for each Brothers Keeper fantasy football team (from youngest to oldest):

Yer X-MOM                      25.87
Yankinfowlsandfeline        26.64
Sea Buzzards                    27.25
Ghost                               27.46
CustodianPandemonium    27.54
Simba's ButtKicker!           27.69
Redmans CatPunters         27.83
Favre$Footlong                 27.92
Cyborg Pirate Ninjas          28
Kabuki Strikes Back           29.46

However, this is a skewed look in three ways. First, for a better look at each team one should not just take the overall average of the age of the team (as I have it listed above). Rather for a better perspective one should account for the years plus or minus the peak years for each position. For example (and I'm just pulling numbers from thin air here), if one decided that RBs declined after age 26, TEs after age 27, WRs after age 32, and QBs after age 34 then you could take each player's position into account and calculate how many years left they have in their prime. Then an average overall of that plus/minus number total could possibly help determine if a team is "young" or not.

The second way this is skewed is by underrating who actually might be kept for 2010's team. For example, if Kabuki Strikes back keeps B Jacobs, K Moreno, and M Crabtree (all under 28 in 2010) then the above statistic is unhelpful at projecting the age of a team for 2010.

The third way this is skewed is that it does not take into account the the age along with the number of active starts for players utilized throughout the season. For example, someone could could use T Owens (37) for two games and never activate him again through the season, all the while other 20 year olds are getting the fantasy starts. This too would change these numbers.

Next, whatever set of numbers you use to calculate the age of a fantasy team you would need to see if it even correlated to fantasy points or wins and playoff success. While the above list shows some correlation to this year's league standings, CustodianPandemonium becomes an anomoly to the correlation. Maybe a team's sit/starts makes it even more skewed.

There are a lot of variables in play that determine the success of a fantasy team in a keeper league (and it could occupy many posts). The fantasy fairy (fantasy schedule), a player's NFL schedule (e.g., a RB could play an above average amount of tough run defenses), and injuries to any aspect of a team (e.g., an offensive lineman may hurt the RBs production or QBs production, while a QB's injury may hurt the fantasy value of a RB or WR or TE) could all be the deciding factor of success. Not just the fact that a team is young. Overuse in one season to a young RB may completely devastate the rest of his career. A fantasy player may keep the wrong people. There are too many variables to fantasy success or loss of fantasy production for a team. Plus, youth purely on its own may actually be a detriment to fantasy production as is the case with conventional fantasy wisdom about WRs (3d year in NFL is first year of major fantasy success). But it sure is fun trying to win.

Back to Ghost's team specifically: At the time of this post, it appears that the Cincinnati Bengals are not going to bring back L Johnson RB nor is it certain that the New York Jets will bring back T Jones RB for the final year of his contract. They are older anyhow. Ghost definitely won't be on the lookout to keep them if he wants his team "young." If he wants youth he'll have to look at 4 players on his team: A Peterson RB (25); Calvin Johnson WR (25); A Collie WR (25); P Harvin WR (22); B Edwards WR (27); J Cutler QB (27); and M Ryan QB (25) [ages listed are for player's age at the beginning of 2010's NFL season]. They seem to be good keepers to me. "All Day" is a given keeper. Not sure which combination WRs and QBs he might keep. Ghost will probably have to determine who gets kept based on their 2010 projected production and if they are worth being kept at that round in the draft. If A Collie is supposed to have increased production then his 15th rd draft pick makes him a good keeper candidate. However, Calvin Johnson may be the better producer. P Harvin may be kept depending on who the Minnesota QB will be. If Favre retires and the NFL team brings in another veteran other than M Vick to QB the team, then Harvin's production should continue. Minnesota has a lot of WRs and a rising TE with a RB who also is important. I'm not really sure what Harvin's future looks like with such a talent crowded offense and unsure QB situation. I'm also unsure of A Collie's WR production if or when A Gonzalez WR returns to Indianapolis. Unless A Boldin WR is traded or the Arizona Cardinals get another veteran QB (since K Warner QB has retired) I doubt he will be an attractive keeper at the number one draft position.

My Best Guess at Ghost's 2010 Keepers
A Peterson RB, Calvin Johnson WR, P Harvin WR, and M Ryan QB as developmental seems to me to be the best keepers for Ghost unless Favre retires and the Minnesota Vikings do not attain a veteran QB. If there is no worthy QB for the Vikings then I'd say maybe D Clark is kept. It really is hard to say.
 
Brothers Keeper Third Party Consultant's Best Guess at Ghost's 2010 Keepers
"im gonna say ap, megatron, matt ryan, and dallas clark"