Saturday, June 9, 2012

A Fantasy Football Draft Value Chart Update: 2011

On July 31, 2010 I published one of my most popular posts in the broader fantasy football arena: Building a Fantasy Football Draft Value Chart has shown up high on multiple search engines queries and has been viewed over 1000 times according to the blogger statistics. The third most popular post has been Do Bookends Rule? A Study on the Value of Draft Slots/Positions in a Snake Draft with just over 350 page views. That study could only have been produced on the heels of it's predecessor (Building a Fantasy Football Draft Value Chart). The methodology is still the same as in 2010's update. However, don't be fooled, there are others using my work for their leagues now as well. There is value for those who know what it is trying to convey. Be sure to tailor any draft value chart for your fantasy football league's rules and scoring.

Review and Baselines
By way of a brief review, I have built an Ideal Fantasy Football Draft Value Chart that is league specific in order to place a numeric value on every draft pick in the fantasy football draft according to the Brothers Keeper scoring settings. In order to eradicate human errors in the actual fantasy football drafts, the Brothers Keeper Ideal Fantasy Football Draft Value chart provides us with the an educated estimate of the perfect market efficiency value of each draft pick. Instead of utilizing straight fantasy points, I have utilized fantasy points over baseline (FPOB) in order to evaluate the players from different positions equally. The baselines from years past are as follows:

Baselines of Overall Performance For Each Year:

2006
10th Ranked QB = 240.3 fantasy points
50th Ranked RB/WR = 148.9 fantasy points
10th Ranked TE = 112 fantasy points
10th Ranked K = 118 fantasy points
10th Ranked DEF = 139 fantasy points

2007
10th Ranked QB = 281.18 fantasy points
50th Ranked RB/WR = 150.8 fantasy points
10th Ranked TE = 106.55 fantasy points
10th Ranked K = 127 fantasy points
10th Ranked DEF = 146 fantasy points

2008
10th Ranked QB = 266.32 fantasy points
50th Ranked RB/WR = 163.28 fantasy points
10th Ranked TE = 100.9 fantasy points
10th Ranked K = 129 fantasy points
10th Ranked DEF =142 fantasy points

2009
10th Ranked QB = 304.34 fantasy points
50th Ranked RB/WR = 155.65 fantasy points
10th Ranked TE = 138.6 fantasy points
10th Ranked K = 122 fantasy points
10th Ranked DEF = 137 fantasy points

2010
10th Ranked QB = 313.44 fantasy points
50th Ranked RB/WR = 153.88 fantasy points
10th Ranked TE = 124.25 fantasy points
10th Ranked K = 120 fantasy points
10th Ranked DEF = 131 fantasy points

Now that the 2011 fantasy football season is complete, the 2011 baselines can now be added:

2011
10th Ranked QB = 303.26 fantasy points
50th Ranked RB/WR = 149.65 fantasy points
10th Ranked TE = 133.75 fantasy points
10th Ranked K = 135 fantasy points
10th Ranked DEF = 136 fantasy points

As you should notice, the baselines did not differ wildly from those of the previous 2 seasons for TE, K, and DEF. It did decrease for QBs and WR/RBs. For those interested here is the 6 year average of those baselines:

6 Year Avg
10th Ranked QB = 281.12 fantasy points
50th Ranked RB/WR = 154.5 fantasy points
10th Ranked TE = 1116.46 fantasy points
10th Ranked K = 123.2 fantasy points
10th Ranked DEF = 139 fantasy points

Brothers Keeper Ideal Fantasy Football Draft Value Chart
Below is the post 2011 Brothers Keeper Ideal Fantasy Football Draft Value Chart. The first column is the round each pick is made in. The second column is the individual team's draft position for a snake draft. The third column is the overall pick number. The next five columns detail each season's Ideal Draft Value for each pick from 2006 - 2011 (One Louder!).



The 2010 Amendment to Consider
Now that you can see the 2011 update we need to revisit some Brothers Keeper history. The inaugural season of this keeper league was 2007. As you should recall, it utilized the full 17 weeks of the NFL regular season in order to complete the playoffs. As such the 2006 and 2007 FPOB numbers are actually skewed higher because the fantasy point totals involved actually reflect an extra week of fantasy point production compared to the 2008 - 2010 fantasy seasons. In order to make the Brothers Keeper Ideal Fantasy Football Draft Value Chart more accurate I have added a preferred colored column to it that reflects the average FPOB from 2008 - 2011 since we have only used 16 weeks of the regular NFL season to complete our fantasy football playoffs (cf. I. League Settings). Therefore the 4 Year Average does not include the 17 week skewed FPOB from 2006 - 2007. For your consideration the difference between the 4 Year Average and the 6 Year Average is small after the first round as indicated in the far right column titled Difference.

If you think the 4 Year Average of the FPOB from 2008 - 2011 is better, then take a look at the 4 Year Average of the baselines from those years:

4 Year Avg
10th Ranked QB = 294.7 fantasy points
50th Ranked RB/WR = 157.6 fantasy points
10th Ranked TE = 121.25 fantasy points
10th Ranked K = 123.67 fantasy points
10th Ranked DEF = 136.67 fantasy points

Here, then, is the 2011 update to the visual graph of the Brothers Keeper Ideal Fantasy Football Draft Value Chart:
For those who would like to visually see the difference between the 4 Year Average and the 6 Year Average see the following graph:
Now that we have the 2011 update completed we can proceed with better research in the upcoming blogs. I will refer to the Brothers Keeper Ideal Fantasy Football Draft Value Chart often. This should also aid competitors when valuing draft picks in any potential trade. May you enjoy your fantasy football offseason as the 2012 season begins to near!

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