Friday, December 30, 2011

2012 Brothers Keeper Draft Order

Last year, as a result of the new 6 team playoff format discussion arose about what to do with the draft order took place. After a number of participants gave their input a new draft order was researched and proposed for implementation for the 2011 season. It was accepted and utilized and a competitive 2011 season ensued.

Following the 2011 draft order equation research and based off the 2011 Brothers Keeper 5 fantasy football season final standings, regular season winning percentage, and regular season total points scored, the upcoming 2012 draft order would be as follows (if still accepted by the league and the Commissioner; here's the link to the Google Doc version of the spreadsheet):

As you can see, because the regular season winning percentage and point total matter for two thirds of the equation the draft order looks pretty solid. The weakest two teams will definitely be drafting in the first two spots.

For anyone concerned about Yer X-MOM not performing well in the consolation bracket we will consider the scenarios. Yer X-MOM went without a kicker in week 15 and without a kicker and defense in week 16. Thus it could be gathered that Yer X-MOM intentionally lost the games for a better draft pick in 2012. However this does not appear to be the case.

While Yer X-MOM had a high point total during the regular season his regular season winning percentage was very low thanks to the hardest fantasy schedule in the league. However, four teams shared the same regular season winning percentage and missed the playoffs narrowly.

The consolation bracket week 15 games were then the most important. As noted, Yer X-MOM played without a kicker and lost to Simba's Buttkicker! by 18.46 points. The best kicker in all of fantasy football in week 15 produced 14 points (R Succop). Yer X-MOM lost because of the poor play by the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers DEF scored only 1 FP. B Roethlisberger QB only scored 8.2 FP. M Wallace WR scored .10 FP better at 8.3 FP. Those three along with their RB R Mendenhall (who was benched in favor of more productive RBs) were the primary reason Yer X-MOM performed poorly in Week 15. Plus, G Jennings WR was injured and not playing but also not started because of the injury. The loss did not occur because he did not start a kicker. If you think he did not set his lineup you will see the starting lineup from week 13 and 14 are different than week 15's lineup. Besides, Simba's Buttkicker! is his nemesis and he would never want to intentionally lose to his sorry team. Even if it was expected that Yer X-MOM was a better team and should have won it did not happen as expected.

The scenarios are generally not going to change the first two teams and the second two teams. All the consolation bracket did was award the Toilet Bowl trophy to Yer X-MOM. An embarrassing feat after winning back to back championships in 2009 and 2010. It was his first consolation bracket appearance. It matters not who won the consolation bracket.

Fundamentally it is the championship bracket that means most. Anything that promotes the regular season chances of the majority of teams to make the playoffs should be more important than who wins a four team consolation bracket. The current draft order contributes to that. People want a great chance to make the playoffs to win the championship. The regular season does that and a 6 team playoff is way better than an 8 team playoff. How does one keep all of these prominent? At this juncture the league's canons seem to maneuver these issues very well and very intelligently.

If another draft order needs to be proposed I am all ears and would like to see the research. Over time this league has changed its draft order because of the update from an 8 team playoff format to a 6 team playoff format from an earlier discussion. But the main thing the 3 Factor Power Ranking Draft Order does is keep the league competitive by rewarding weaker teams with better draft picks for next year so they can have the best chance to advance and not remain weak thus creating parity within the league. It is a model for many other keeper leagues to follow. We've hammered out the issues and it is fun.

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