Wednesday, March 31, 2010

Looking Ahead 2010: Yankinfowlsandfeline

This is the sixth post of a series of blogs covering each team from Brothers Keeper in detail. We began with the last place team and are moving toward the top of the league standings as it stood at the end of the 2009 fantasy football season (cf. Kabuki Strikes Back; CustodianPandemonium; Favre$Footlong; Ghost; Redmans CatPunters). Sixth up, Yankinfowlsandfeline (J Smith).

Overview of J Smith's Brothers Keeper History
2007 Yank 9-5-0 (1st Place) 1723.24 points; 42 transactions
2008 YANKINHALOSKIKINCATS: 4-9-0 (9th Place) 1392.81 points; 30 transactions
2009 Yankinfowlsandfeline: 10-3-0 (5th Place) 1717.89 points; 27 transactions

2009 End of Season Commentary
2001 and 2004 were excellent years. In 2001 the Arizona Diamondbacks became World Champions in one of my all time favorite sporting moments of my life. In 2004 the Boston Red Sox became American League Champions and subsequently World Champions. The loser to each of those teams is derided and hated with more vitriol than the Dallas Cowboys. You either love the New York Yankees or you hate them. Seeing them choke a great choke will either bring tears to your eyes or raise your dimples high with glee. Get the newspapers. Get the feeling of a city downcast and depressed. Get the joy over the down fall of another.

In Brothers Keeper 2009 we saw a historic collapse. A great choke. Perhaps the choke of chokes. Yankinfowlsandfeline topped the league in total points scored almost all season long by a huge margin (1717.89 total which was 215.04 points over the second highest season total posted by Ghost [B Garner]). Yankinfowlsandfeline had only been bested three times in the regular fantasy season. Two of those losses he scored over 110 points. The third loss had him score over 100 points. The teams he lost to played their best games of the season in order to gain the victory. In the 2d week Yankinfowlsandfeline lost to Yer X-MOM  (P Smith) 118.66 - 181.59. In the 10th week Yankinfowlsandfeline lost to Favre$Footlong (D Kessler) 111.46 - 132.58. The third loss of the regular season came in week 13 to Simba's Buttkicker! (R Johnson) 103.19 - 133.65. It was Simba's Buttkicker!'s 2d highest scoring game of the season. The average amount of points Yankinfowlsandfeline won by was 34.63 points in his regular season victories. The average amount of points he lost by in his 3 regular season losses was 38.17 points. It took a very good fantasy week to beat Yankinfowlsandfeline.

Yankinfowlsandfeline lost 2 out of his last 4 regular season games but had never lost back to back weeks. The lowest scoring game of the season for Yankinfowlsandfeline was the 103.19 - 133.65 loss to Simba's Buttkicker! in the final regular season game. The ominous clouds were lurking at the door of the playoffs just vexing their might. J Smith had no idea what would play out next. In fact, he was probably a cool cat (wrong metaphor probably in this league) on the outside. He was probably walking tall ready for whatever may come his way. He'd been dominant. He just had to be sure to set his lineup.
As the number one seed entering the playoffs Yankinfowlsandfeline was matched up against the number 8 seed. Easy pickin's. His opponent had only scored 1396.22 points on the season. J Smith had scored a cool 321.67 points more; probably enough for 3 weeks worth of wins. Yankinfowlsandfeline had points to spare. Sea Buzzards (M Peltonen) had a 4 game losing streak at the end of the regular season. He backed into the playoffs. He had the same win-loss record as the guy in 9th place. He made it to the playoffs on just a higher total season point total than that 9th place team. There was no way he'd handle the likes of the number 1 seed. It was going to be a joy ride for Yankinfowlsandfeline to get to the championship let alone the semifinals.

What began as a practical breeze grew into a storm of fury. Yankinfowlsandfeline scored his second lowest point total on the year scoring 104.45 points. The week before was his lowest total... that loss to Simba's Buttkicker! (R Johnson). It's not like Yankinfowlsandfeline was going to go below that. He had top of the league fantasy producers in A Rodgers at QB. He had M Jones-Drew and R Rice at RB. He had one of the better TEs in B Celek who replaced the injured O Daniels (who is recovering well from his torn ACL). S Smith (Car) and M Colston just had to do average at WR. This was not supposed to be a hard game. But it was. A Rodgers QB threw only for 180 yards. No TDs. Ok. M Jones-Drew RB flopped 59 yards rushing and 1 TD with only 24 yards receiving. R Rice RB tried to salvage the week with 166 rushing yards, another 53 yards receiving, and a TD. But it wasn't enough to stem the onslaught of sub par performance. "For crying out loud Sea Buzzards only scored an average of 107.04 points a week for the regular season. Surely this team could have been beaten?" That's the thought life of any New York Yankee in this situation.

Let's call it what it was: a Choke. The long time tradition of choke continues. Where will it strike again? A rib? A ham bone? A Sea Buzzard? Major chokage happens and it could happen to you. This year it just happened to the guy who names himself after a strong tradition of choke. Sounds fitting: Yankinfowlsandfeline. No repeat championship for you.
Yankinfowlsandfeline's 2009 Draft
Yankinfowlsandfeline (J Smith) had the 2d overall draft pick position in the 2009 draft due to his poor 2008 season. His 2009 draft results are thus (noting that those who were kept from his 2008 final roster):

1. (2) Steve Smith WR (CAR)
2. (19) Maurice Jones-Drew RB (Keeper)
3. (22) Marques Colston WR (Keeper)
4. (39) Ray Rice RB
5. (42) Anthony Gonzalez WR
6. (59) Owen Daniels TE
7. (62) Cedric Benson RB
8. (79) Devin Hester WR
9. (82) Jake Delhomme QB
10. (99) Beanie Wells RB
11. (102) New York Jets DEF
12. (119) Aaron Rodgers QB (Keeper)
13. (122) Fred Taylor RB
14. (139) Brent Celek TE
15. (142) Jason Elam K

Yankinfowlsandfeline's Final 2009 Roster
I have included the 2010 draft round and pick overall (overall pick is in parentheses) value of each player on Yankinfowlsandfeline's final roster followed by the name of the player, player's position, total # of fantasy starts for the season (a * indicates developmental eligibility for 2010's draft; some players were on more than one team but their total starts for all teams is listed); and total fantasy points scored by the player for the 16 fantasy week season (which is not subject to the # of starts):

1. (3) Steve Smith WR (CAR) (1st Rd Keeper Value); 10 fantasy starts; 160.30 fp
1. (3) Maurice Jones-Drew RB (1st Rd Keeper Value); 15 fantasy starts; 308.83 fp
2. (18) Marques Colston WR (Keeper); 15 fantasy starts; 174.50 fp
3. (23)
4. (38) Ray Rice RB; 14 fantasy starts; 289.00 fp
5. (43)
6. (58) Kevin Walter WR; *3 fantasy starts (2 with CYBROG PIRATE NINJAS + 1 with Yankinfowlsandfeline); 98.15 fp
7. (63) Cedric Benson RB; 7 fantasy starts; 183.65 fp
8. (78)
9. (83)
10. (98)
11. (103) Aaron Rodgers QB (Keeper); 15 fantasy starts; 431.96 fp
12. (118)
13. (123)
14. (138) Brent Celek TE; 10 fantasy starts; 172.55 fp
14. (138) John Carlson TE; 4 fantasy starts (4 with Simba's Buttkicker!); 121.70 fp
15. (143) Garrett Hartley K; *3 fantasy starts; 34.00 fp
15. (143) Justin Forsett RB; *3 fantasy starts; 165.87 fp
15. (143) Kyle Orton QB; *1 fantasy starts; 269.18 fp
15. (143) Shayne Graham K; *2 fantasy starts (1 with Yer X-MOM + 1 with Yankinfowlsandfeline); 98.00 fp
15. (143) New Orleans DEF; 7 fantasy starts; 175.00 fp
15. (143) Tampa Bay DEF; *2 fantasy starts; 116.00 fp

Looking Ahead at 2010
Yankinfowlsandfeline's keeper selection should be pretty easy. The 3 keepers at the top of the list will be M Jones-Drew RB, R Rice RB, and A Rodgers QB. That only burns a 1st, 4th and 11th round draft picks. If he's hungry for a developmental player he can keep K Walter WR for a 6th round pick. Might be an overpayment for Walter but not by much. The 3 regular keepers are no brainers. I doubt one would keep S Smith (Car) WR for a 1st round pick but he is a worthy WR to consider along with M Colston in the 2d round, C Benson RB in the 7th round, and B Celek TE in the 14th round. It's just that M Jones-Drew, R Rice, and A Rodgers are so much more dominant for their positions.

With Jones-Drew, Rice, and Rodgers in the fold J Smith is poised to do what he did again this year as long as most of his draft is slightly above average in 2010. He won't have a first round pick if he keeps M Jones-Drew or S Smith (Car). So his #3 draft pick position will not be much of a benefit until round 3. He'd have a 2d and 3d round pick and most everything after the 4th round to build his team. One aspect Yankinfowlsandfeline may want to consider is that he could theoretically throw M Jones-Drew into the player pool and keep another player other than S Smith (Car) and draft M Jones-Drew in the 3d pick overall int he 1st round. That would mean Kabuki Strikes back (J Fullerton) 1st pick overall, and CustodianPandimonium (R Smith) 2d pick overall, both either need to keep their 1st round picks or if one or the other does not keep their 1st round pick, would need to pass over M Jones-Drew so that he falls to Yankinfowlsandfeline to be able to draft. Is this scenario possible? Did winning the consolation bracket help J Smith after all?

1st pick overall, Kabuki Strikes Back (J Fullerton) will most likely be one that is used to keep P Manning QB. If P Manning isn't kept, L Tomlinson RB or B Jacobs RB could be kept there as well. My best guess was P Manning QB will be kept. So one pick down. One to go.

2d pick overall goes to the saavy fantasy football drafter, CustodianPandimonium (R Smith). His 1st round potential keeper is B Westbrook RB, who currently does not have a job. Even if Westbrook does have one by the time draft day comes around, CustodianPandimonium would most likely pass ont he often injured RB and keep better draft value picks like V Jackson WR, K Smith RB (who is on schedule with his ACL rehab), W Welker WR, J Charles RB, D Jackson WR, or J Flacco QB (who appears to benefit from the offseason transactions). H Ward WR or even S Smith (NYG) WR also are possibilities. Westbrook just fails in comparison to any of them and with the vitriol any fantasy player may have toward a fantasy bust the 1st round pick will be available to CustodianPandimonium. Would CustodianPandimonium draft M Jones-Drew for the first overall pick if available? Probably, although it may depend on who else is available in the talent pool along with his own draft needs. But to pass on M Jones-Drew as a 1st round pick would be extremely tough. Therefore it would be very unlikely that M Jones-Drew would not drop to Yankinfowlsandfeline in the 2010 fantasy football draft if M Jones-Drew was not kept by Yankinfowlsandfeline. This is definitely a fantasy football strategy to consider nonetheless going forward.

My Best Guess at Yankinfowlsandfeline's 2010 Keepers
M Jones-Drew RB (1st round), R Rice RB (4th round), and A Rodgers QB (11th round) with K Walter WR (6th round) as the only possible developmental status keeper. It is doubtful that a developmental keeper is retained. K Orton QB could be a longshot developmental keeper (after all, he is the named 2010 Broncos starter despite the acquisition of B Quinn QB)
Brothers Keeper Third Party Consultant's Best Guess at Yankinfowlsandfeline's 2010 Keepers
"i would keep mjd, ray rice and aaron rodgers as far as a [developmental] i would keep forsett all the other keeper options will be available with late picks in the draft forsett had some beasty games last year and if seattle doesnt draft a rb he should have good value."