Saturday, January 9, 2010

Looking Ahead 2010: Kabuki Strikes Back

This will be the first post of a new series of blogs covering each team from Brothers Keeper in detail. We will begin with the last place team and move to the top of the league standings as it stood at the end of the 2009 fantasy football season. First up J Fullerton's Kabuki Strikes Back

Overview of J Fullerton's Brothers Keeper History
2007 RETURN OF KABUKI: 7-7-0 (2d Place) 1415.26 points; 9 transactions
2008 KABOOOOOOOKI: 6-7-0 (5th Place) 1202.07 points; 5 transactions
2009 Kabuki Strikes Back: 3-10-0 (10th Place) 1298.73 points; 8 transactions

2009 End of Season Commentary
In 2009, J Fullerton's Kabuki Strikes Back never struck back. It was more like a strike out. The only place to go from 2009 to 2010 is up in the standings. In 2007 Kabuki was runner up in the championship game to Yank. 2008 saw a decline into 5th place when the dust settled. There was also a big trade in 2008 between Kabuki and R Johnson's Simba's Buttkicker! Kabuki sent M Turner RB (4th round pick) to Simba's Buttkicker! for L Tomlinson RB (1st round keeper). This stocked Kabuki's team with 3 keepers all worth 1st round picks in the 2009 draft. L Tomlinson RB, B Jacobs RB, and P Manning QB all 1st round value were easily kept for the 1st, 2d, and 3d round draft picks. Imagine getting P Manning QB (3 time NFL MVP), B Jacobs RB, and L Tomlinson RB (the 2006 NFL MVP) in your 1st 3 rounds in 2006, 2007, or 2008. Those would be amazing building blocks to any team in any keeper league. Even this writer had big expectations for Kabuki's 2009. The Outlook was brilliant.

While P Manning QB won his 4th NFL MVP in a landslide, 2009, however, was not like the previous 3 years. L Tomlinson RB and B Jacobs RB both shared running the ball on their respective teams thus lowering their fantasy points. Overall, if any team fails on two of their first 3 draft picks in a fantasy draft, either by injury or loss of production issues your team is going to have a tough time recovering from that loss. It can be accomplished, it just is hard to do. L Tomlinson scored 168.7 total fantasy points and B Jacobs scored 144.7 total fantasy points. The trade was basically a moot point for both Kabuki and Simba's Buttkicker! M Turner scored 149.85 points in only 10 weeks of availability.

For what it's worth I liked Kabuki's 2009 draft strategy and keeper league team building skills. Out of the 10 teams in this league he was the only one with the ability to keep 3 players worth a 1st round draft pick if kept, and he exercised that option to the groans or droolings of other teams. I admired the work that went into being able to do something along those lines (well within the rules) but unattainable to other teams in the league. It is just unfortunate that B Jacobs and L Tomlinson underperformed their high draft values, picks, and preseason projections. I'm reminded of a great poem:
Oh, somewhere in this favored land the sun is shining bright;
The band is playing somewhere, and somewhere hearts are light,
And somewhere men are laughing, and somewhere children shout;
But there is no joy in Mudville - mighty Casey has struck out.
So as a result this trophy is for you Mr. Fullerton:

Kabuki Strikes Back's 2009 Draft
Kabuki Strikes Back had the 3d draft pick position in the 2009 draft. The 5th place win in the 2008 consolation bracket earned Fullerton a good spot on the draft board. His 2009 draft results are thus (noting that the first 3 overall were all worth a 1st rd pick as keepers and are thus interchangeable):

1. (3) LaDainian Tomlinson RB (1st Rd Keeper Value)
2. (18) Peyton Manning QB (1st Rd Keeper Value)
3. (23) Brandon Jacobs RB (1st Rd Keeper Value)
4. (38) Knowshon Moreno RB
5. (43) Chad Ochocinco WR
6. (58) Santana Moss WR
7. (63) Carson Palmer QB
8. (78) Michael Crabtree WR
9. (83) Stephen Gostkowski K
10. (98) Chicago DEF
11. (103) Kellen Winslow TE
12. (118) Leon Washington RB
13. (123) Derrick Mason WR
14. (138) Le'Ron McClain RB
15. (143) Chris Henry WR

R.I.P. C Henry WR. I thought you had the talent too.

Kabuki Strikes Back's Final 2009 Roster
I have included the 2010 draft round and pick overall (overall pick is in parentheses) value of each player on Kabuki Strikes Back's final roster followed by the name of the player, player's position, total # of fantasy starts for the season (only counting through week 13 because he did not enter the playoffs; a * indicates developmental eligibility for 2010's draft; some players were on more than one team but their toal starts for all teams is listed); and total fantasy points scored by the player for the 16 fantasy week season (which is not subject to the # of starts):

1. (1) LaDainian Tomlinson RB (1st Rd Keeper Value); 10 fantasy starts; 168.70 fp
1. (1) Peyton Manning QB (1st Rd Keeper Value); 12 fantasy starts; 379.70 fp
1. (1) Brandon Jacobs RB (1st Rd Keeper Value); 11 fantasy starts; 144.70 fp
2. (20)
3. (21)
4. (40) Knowshon Moreno RB; 6 fantasy starts; 151.90 fp
5. (41) Chad Ochocinco WR; 10 fantasy starts; 177.55 fp
6. (60) Santana Moss WR; 5 fantasy starts; 133.63 fp
7. (61) Carson Palmer QB; *1 fantasy start; 256.06 fp
8. (80) Michael Crabtree WR; *1 fantasy start; 89.25 fp
9. (81)
10. (100)
11. (101) Kellen Winslow TE; 10 fantasy starts; 151.90 fp
12. (120)
13. (121) Derrick Mason WR; 10 fantasy starts; 166.60 fp
14. (140)
15. (141) Chester Taylor RB; *3 fantasy starts; 108.65 fp (Undrafted)
15. (141) Todd Heap TE; 6 fantasy starts (3 teams); 118.85 fp (Undrafted)
15. (141) Ryan Moats RB; *1 fantasy start; 83.30 fp (Undrafted)
15. (141) Nick Folk K; 5 fantasy starts; 87.00 fp (Undrafted)
15. (141)Seattle DEF; 5 fantasy starts; 103.00 fp (Undrafted)

Looking Ahead at 2010
Depending on who is kept, Fullerton has a pretty solid number of guys to choose from his 2009 final roster. Again he could use his top 3 picks for 1st rd valued keepers but I suspect that will not be the case. Maybe P Manning QB and B Jacobs RB are kept but maybe only P Manning QB is kept. My guess is that Kabuki will have at least 2 of his first 3 rounds open to drafting free talent. Maybe all 3. If P Manning QB is kept that means he does not have a pick until the end of round 2 and the beginning of round 3. He either has to go with P Manning at QB or decide C Palmer is his team's future. Palmer is a 7th round value draft pick in 2010 and has developmental eligibility. C Palmer QB has good value in this position but P Manning is really the top of the line QB. P Manning is much more consistent and his higher fantasy point totals are attractive. Both QBs could easily be retained leaving Kabuki with 2 more from his roster to keep and a talented QB to trade away in either Manning or Palmer.

Unless R Moats RB is the clear choice to start in Houston next year, I doubt any of the undrafted 15th round players are kept. That will probably mean K Moreno RB is kept. Otherwise no RB is kept. This might be a reason why B Jacobs RB is kept. If the preseason projections for K Moreno RB are low look for B Jacobs RB to be retained again despite the down year in 2009. We really never can tell what a player will do in the future. 2010 may be totally different than 2009 in terms of fantasy values. There is a big shake up in the NY Giants coaching this offseason and it will be interesting to see what the Offensive Coordinator's philosophy will be. B Jacobs RB is talented no matter what. But if his preseason fantasy projections are comparable to K Moreno RB then Moreno would be the solid value pick worth a 4th rd draft pick while B Jacobs RB might be the safer pick but worth a 1st round pick. It's really a 50/50 shot on which one of these two will be chosen. My guess is on Moreno but Jacobs would notbe surprising. I doubt both are kept. That would leave

That leaves one more pick to be desired, if not two more. My guess is on either C Ochocinco WR or M Crabtree WR. D Mason WR, K Winslow TE, T Heap TE, and S Moss WR just do not seem like the keeper value types. Any of them are surely mediocre. Ochocinco and Crabtree pose the better options though. Crabtree is all on potential though. If he turns out to be an elite WR he is at a very good value for a long while beginning 2010 at an 8th round draft pick value. Historically, Crabtree's QB A Smith is no C Palmer QB. We know Ochocinco has a better QB. Plus, common fantasy football wisdom says that WRs are not usually in their prime until their 3rd season in the NFL. How much will Crabtree's contract holdout hurt this sage advice is yet to be determined. Ochocinco is the more dependable pick but Crabtree has upside and value in the future. If C Palmer is not kept as a developmental then Crabtree is the go to guy in that category. C Taylor RB and R Moats RB just do not appeal to anyone as worthy

My Best Guess at Kabuki Strikes Back's 2010 Keepers
P Manning QB, K Moreno RB, C Ochocinco WR, and C Palmer QB. If not K Moreno which frees up earlier draft picks, then B Jacobs at RB but only because he has a late 2d round draft pick. If not C Palmer then M Crabtree WR at developmental. My gut feeling is that Kabuki goes for the established players. There's no reason to risk too much of the future on Moreno and Crabtree if they are not yet elite. On a long shot, maybe only P Manning and C Ochocinco are kept thus freeing up more draft picks. An elite QB, a quality RB, an established WR, and building for the future.

Brothers Keeper Third Party Consultant's Best Guess at Kabuki Strikes Back's 2010 Keepers
"manning, moreno, ochocinco and crabtree"

"my best guess would be he picks manning,ocho,moreno and no way he lets go off crabtree. but the surpise out of all these players could be in the draft santana moss(ie eddie royal 08yr) a small welker type with a lot of potential in a short passing offense. shanny made a star out of royal and a fool out of most who drafted royal after he left...just something to ponder..."

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