Friday, December 30, 2011

2012 Brothers Keeper Draft Order

Last year, as a result of the new 6 team playoff format discussion arose about what to do with the draft order took place. After a number of participants gave their input a new draft order was researched and proposed for implementation for the 2011 season. It was accepted and utilized and a competitive 2011 season ensued.

Following the 2011 draft order equation research and based off the 2011 Brothers Keeper 5 fantasy football season final standings, regular season winning percentage, and regular season total points scored, the upcoming 2012 draft order would be as follows (if still accepted by the league and the Commissioner; here's the link to the Google Doc version of the spreadsheet):

As you can see, because the regular season winning percentage and point total matter for two thirds of the equation the draft order looks pretty solid. The weakest two teams will definitely be drafting in the first two spots.

For anyone concerned about Yer X-MOM not performing well in the consolation bracket we will consider the scenarios. Yer X-MOM went without a kicker in week 15 and without a kicker and defense in week 16. Thus it could be gathered that Yer X-MOM intentionally lost the games for a better draft pick in 2012. However this does not appear to be the case.

While Yer X-MOM had a high point total during the regular season his regular season winning percentage was very low thanks to the hardest fantasy schedule in the league. However, four teams shared the same regular season winning percentage and missed the playoffs narrowly.

The consolation bracket week 15 games were then the most important. As noted, Yer X-MOM played without a kicker and lost to Simba's Buttkicker! by 18.46 points. The best kicker in all of fantasy football in week 15 produced 14 points (R Succop). Yer X-MOM lost because of the poor play by the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers DEF scored only 1 FP. B Roethlisberger QB only scored 8.2 FP. M Wallace WR scored .10 FP better at 8.3 FP. Those three along with their RB R Mendenhall (who was benched in favor of more productive RBs) were the primary reason Yer X-MOM performed poorly in Week 15. Plus, G Jennings WR was injured and not playing but also not started because of the injury. The loss did not occur because he did not start a kicker. If you think he did not set his lineup you will see the starting lineup from week 13 and 14 are different than week 15's lineup. Besides, Simba's Buttkicker! is his nemesis and he would never want to intentionally lose to his sorry team. Even if it was expected that Yer X-MOM was a better team and should have won it did not happen as expected.

The scenarios are generally not going to change the first two teams and the second two teams. All the consolation bracket did was award the Toilet Bowl trophy to Yer X-MOM. An embarrassing feat after winning back to back championships in 2009 and 2010. It was his first consolation bracket appearance. It matters not who won the consolation bracket.

Fundamentally it is the championship bracket that means most. Anything that promotes the regular season chances of the majority of teams to make the playoffs should be more important than who wins a four team consolation bracket. The current draft order contributes to that. People want a great chance to make the playoffs to win the championship. The regular season does that and a 6 team playoff is way better than an 8 team playoff. How does one keep all of these prominent? At this juncture the league's canons seem to maneuver these issues very well and very intelligently.

If another draft order needs to be proposed I am all ears and would like to see the research. Over time this league has changed its draft order because of the update from an 8 team playoff format to a 6 team playoff format from an earlier discussion. But the main thing the 3 Factor Power Ranking Draft Order does is keep the league competitive by rewarding weaker teams with better draft picks for next year so they can have the best chance to advance and not remain weak thus creating parity within the league. It is a model for many other keeper leagues to follow. We've hammered out the issues and it is fun.

Wednesday, December 28, 2011

Ghost Year: 2011 Final Regular Season Standings and Playoff Results

Points ON the Bench didn't complete the comeback push to enter the playoffs despite MOTHERSHIP RUSH and Rmmm's Golden Eagle suffering late season slides. Points ON the Bench misses the playoffs. What a shame since he was so disappointed with his draft.

Here are the final regular season standings:

You will remember that the regular season standings (win pct) and total points scored are important for the new 3 Factor Power Ranking draft order equation Brothers Keeper employs.

The first week of the playoffs, the quarterfinals, centered on two matchups: the 4th seeded team (Forever Tide) played the 5th seeded team (Rmmm's Golden Eagle) while the 3d seed (TheSloppyButts) played the 6th seed (MOTHERSHIP RUSH). In short the favorites won. Forever Tide beat Rmmm's Golden Eagle 137.55 to 108.68 and TheSloppyButts defeated MOTHERSHIP RUSH 117.34 to move to the semifinals.

The top two teams, Ghost and Yankinfowlsandfeline, earned a quarterfinal bye and awaited the results of the other playoff contenders.

In the semifinals Ghost trounced Forever Tide, 155.46 to 92.93. TheSloppyButts took Yankinfowlsandfeline to the wood shed and beat him 128.74 to 81.55. The top regular season point scorer was upended. It wasn't completely the fault of A Rodgers QB, when Green Bay suffered their first loss of the season. It happened to be that everyone Yankinfowlsandfeline started had a bad week as each of his players played on losing teams in week 15.

Then came the championship final between Ghost and TheSloppyButts. Both teams had yet to complete a playoff run to win the trophy. There was going to be a new Brothers Keeper Champion in 2011. It was a testament to their teams strength that both teams arrived in the finals. TheSloppyButts lost J Charles RB to the IR early in the season and then later lost the productive D Murray RB to injury as well. Ghost also lost a lot of dominate players in the year. F Jackson RB went down late and D McFadden continued his yearly injuries. However, A Peterson RB who had missed 3 weeks due to an injury came back for the fantasy playoffs. But as soon as he played in the week 16 championship game he went down after scoring 12.5 FP. He went down hard and tore his ACL thanks to the low tackle. It looked ugly on TV... ugly for Ghost too. By the end of Saturday night's games on Christmas Eve Ghost was down by 55.94 FP with 53.5 points. With 2 games remaining and 4 players yet to play on Ghost's team, TheSloppyButts stood at 109.44 FP and had no remaining players left to play. Santa came and visited this friendly Ghost and delivered more than enough to win the 2011 Brothers Keeper Championship. Ghost's final score was 125.47 FP. It is Ghost's first championship trophy in Brothers Keeper league play. Congratulations Ghost on your title.

Playoff Results of both the championship and consolation brackets:

1. Ghost
2. TheSloppyButts
3. Yankinfowlsandfeline
4. Forever Tide
6. Rmmm's Golden Eagle
7. Simba's Buttkicker!
8. Points ON the Bench
9. ThePunchin Munchkins
10. Yer X-MOM

In other news, the NFL will conduct eight regional combines beginning in 2012. Plus, NBC along with the NFL will stream the Wild Card games, the Pro Bowl and the Super Bowl online. I have begun to update the Brothers Keeper Ideal Draft Value Chart for 2011's results. Plus I will report the 2012 Brothers Keeper Draft Order along with the equation within the week. Enjoy your fantasy offseason and look forward to 2012. I hope it will be just as fine as 2011 was.

Thursday, December 1, 2011

Week 12 Aftermath: Bite the Dust

Well it was only a matter of time before the inevitable: Simba's Buttkicker! (R Johnson) failed to make the playoffs. In five years of Brothers Keeper play he has now missed the playoffs four times. He is not alone however, as the reigning two-time champion Yer X-MOM (P Smith) and ThePuchin Munchkins (M Peltonen) also became casualties of the week 12 aftermath.

It wasn't a superior effort, but all three teams lost their chance to contend in the postseason. Points ON the Bench still has a chance. In fact, he will contend with Forever Tide in the upcoming week 13 matchup. Forever Tide, Rmmm's Golden Eagle, and MOTHERSHIP RUSH all have yet to clinch their playoff spot. While Points ON the Bench is one loss under the other three teams, it should be noted that MOTHERSHIP RUSH has fallen hard losing five of his last six matchups. One of these four teams will join one of the three teams already eliminated from the playoffs once week 13 is complete.

So which matchups are important this week? Put simply, the three matchups that all have playoff contenders playing. However, one of those three matchups has two contenders playing against one another: Points ON the Bench (5 - 7) v. Forever Tide (6 - 6). They will need to analyze their lineups two or three times before the start of each NFL game in week 13. It is deathly important.

So good luck and here's to the enjoyment of the final week of the regular season!