Monday, June 27, 2011

Looking Ahead 2011: Points ON the Bench

This is the fourth post of a series of blogs covering each team from the 2010 Brothers Keeper league in detail. We began with the last place team and are moving up to the top of the league standings as it stood at the end of the 2010 fantasy football season (cf. CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS; Kabuki Strikes Back; and Simba's Buttkicker!). Now it is time to turn our attention to Points ON the Bench (D Kessler).

Good looking family with D Kessler's face mask

Overview of D Kessler's Brothers Keeper History
2007 Junior Asparagus: 4-10-0 (10th Place) 1211.51 points; 8 transactions
2008 PAIN: 9-4-0 (1st Place) 1420.68 points; 14 transactions
2009 Favre$Footlong: 8-5-0 (8th Place) 1247.90 points; 25 transactions
2010 Points ON the Bench: 3-10-0 (7th Place) 1222.65 points; 23 transactions

Points ON the Bench's 2010 Keeper Declaration
D Kessler declared T Gonzalez TE, J Stewart RB, B Marshall WR, and V Shiancoe TE (developmental) as those he wished to retain from his 2009 squad. Due to his limited selection this probably was his best choice other than maybe selecting S Rice WR instead of two TEs as I had guessed. But looking back on it S Rice didn't do so well due to his own injury and B Favre's injury. Rice only played in 6 games in 2010. Points ON the Bench did the best he could have at selecting his keepers after all.

Points ON the Bench's 2010 Draft
Following the old Keeper League Draft Order Rule Points ON the Bench (D Kessler) had the 6th overall draft pick position in the 2010 draft due to his 2009 1st Rd 4 FP playoff loss to R Johnson's Simba's Buttkicker!. His 2010 draft results are thus (noting those who were kept from his 2009 final roster with a This player is a keeper.):

1.(6)Shonn Greene (NYJ - RB)
2.(15)Philip Rivers (SD - QB)
3.(26)Chad Ochocinco (Cin - WR)
4.(35)Tony Gonzalez This player is a keeper. (Atl - TE)
5.(46)Reggie Bush (NO - RB)
6.(55)Jonathan Stewart This player is a keeper. (Car - RB)
7.(66)Brandon Marshall This player is a keeper. (Mia - WR)
8.(75)Pierre Garcon (Ind - WR)
9.(86)Clinton Portis (Was - RB)
10.(95)Matthew Stafford (Det - QB)
11.(106)Mason Crosby (GB - K)
12.(115)Minnesota (Min - DEF)
13.(126)Jacoby Jones (Hou - WR)
14.(135)Cleveland (Cle - DEF)
15.(146)Visanthe Shiancoe This player is a keeper. (Min - TE)

Here's Points ON the Bench's 2010 Draft compared to the 2010 Brothers Keeper Fantasy Football Ideal Draft Value Chart results:

From Here

The draft had a few ups and downs but more downs than ups and the ups weren't ones that exceeded the Ideal Draft Value Chart by much if they did. T Gonzalez was the earliest keeper selection but scored a little under 30 FP below the Ideal Draft Value Chart. J Stewart RB was injured so he too failed to meet his Ideal Draft Value Chart value as a keeper. B Marshall was his best keeper and only underperformed his Ideal Draft pick position by an acceptable 12 FP. That's a little under 1 FP per week. V Shiancoe TE failed to meet his Ideal Draft Value too thanks to B Favre's injury and the hole called the Minnesota Vikings QB. But losing a 15th Rd draft pick would not have been a terrible gamble on V Shiancoe.

S Greene RB didn't do well as a 1st Rd draft pick. He may be worth a 1st Rd pick one day but L Tomlinson is in the way on the NY Jets depth chart. So until then Points ON the Bench will need to be patient and sacrifice at least the 2010 campaign if not the 2011 1st Rd pick as well.

P Rivers QB performed excellent despite losing some quality WRs and a late season injury to A Gates TE. It really was a remarkable statistical year for Rivers who competes hard even when his team is losing. He was Points ON the Bench's only consistent weekly point producer.

With his next two picks in the draft, C Ochocinco WR and R Bush RB, D Kessler bombed. It would be difficult to sustain that many high draft picks producing so far under the Ideal Draft Value Chart levels and expect the results in the win-loss column to be different.

2010 End of Season Commentary
Our worst to first champion has had a slower turn around since winning the big one in 2008. The 8th place finish was bested this year by a 7th place finish. However, while he scored a similar FP total in the regular season of 2010 as he did in 2009, his regular season winning percentage was awful. He went from an 8 - 5 record to a 3 - 10 record in 2010. That is strange. So what was the issue then?

If we take a look at the points scored against Points ON the Bench in 2009, 1223.49 FP were scored. In 2010 there were 1417.66 FP scored against him. It was the 5th hardest regular season schedule in Brothers Keeper in 2010 while scoring the third lowest FP total. The issue was a much more difficult schedule... or it could be that Kessler himself knew what happened, namely, that he started the wrong players: In midseason, Favre$Footlong was renamed Points ON the Bench. In the commentary below I will look at the matter on a week to week basis but would like to eventually follow up with a study on how the league did at sitting and starting fantasy players on a weekly basis along with related elements from the data I have from 2010.

Points ON the Bench only had three regular season wins. His first win came in week 3 against Redman's CatClippers (97.07 - 92.83). His second win came 2 weeks later against Ghost (89.91 - 82.48). Three weeks later in week 8 came his third and final regular season win against CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS (102.59 - 64.90).

Benching C Ochocinco WR (25.95 FP) in favor of S Greene RB (1.25 FP against a stout Baltimore DEF) caused the loss in week 1 for Favre$Footlong. However, if Yankinfowlsandfeline had started H Nicks WR (25.75 FP) instead of P Harvin WR (3.17 FP), the Ochocinco start would have been negated. But Nicks didn't start and only Kessler could decide to sit or start certain players on his roster. He could have won.
In week 2 Favre$Footlong played against Yer X-MOM. Unfortunately when 44% of your starters (4 players) score less than 10 FP on a given week it would be tough to overcome a really strong game by an opponent. Week 2 was a loss straight up at 137.19 - 94.59. The benched players couldn't even have helped him attain a win. But Favre$Footlong's name was changed before week 3 to Points ON the Bench.

It must have been good luck to change the name because as indicated above, week 3 had D Kessler's first win. However, Redmans CatClippers's bench could have beaten Points ON the Bench. In week 4 Points ON the Bench's bench would not have made up the 18 point deficit to TheSloppyButts. In week 5 Points ON the Bench beat Ghost straight up as Ghost had no one on his bench with the ability to make up the 7 FP loss.

In week 6, again, even Points ON the Bench's bench points could not have helped him win. In fact, it is the same story week 7, 9, 10, 11 and 13. Week 8 was his final win. It wasn't until week 12 when D Kessler could have started M Cassel QB (36.12 FP) instead of P Rivers QB (8.1 FP) for a win that his bench would have helped him win. But with P Rivers performing so well for him all year long, no one would have benched P Rivers for M Cassel. With a win in week 12 and maybe even the week 1 would have only provided 2 more wins for Kessler. Five wins would not have been enough to make the playoffs under the new playoff format. Winning in week 1 and week 12 would have required a week 13 win just to even have a chance to make the playoffs according to winning percentage. But Ghost scored about 200 more FP in the regular season and Kabuki Strikes Back scored about 160 FP more than Points ON the Bench. So even if we got a

All of this proves that Point ON the Bench misnamed his team. The bench points would have only given him maybe 1 or 2 wins total which would not have even given him a shot at the playoffs.
It is easy to wonder about "what ifs" and other hypothetical scenarios. But the best thing one can do is provide your team with a lot of depth to pool your best sit/starts on a weekly basis. When a team's draft places you in a poor position in the depth department then you are going to just have to suffer and make it as fun as possible. Part of that fun could even be misnaming your team! isn't that right NoRegiNoRerunNoRent?

Points ON the Bench's Final 2010 Roster
I have included the upcoming 2011 draft round and pick number (overall pick is in parentheses) of each player on Points ON the Bench's final roster followed by the name of the player, player's position, any 1st Rd Keeper Value players, total # of fantasy starts for the season (a * indicates developmental eligibility for 2011's draft; some players were on more than one team but their total starts for all teams is listed); and total fantasy points scored by the player for the 16 fantasy week season (which is not subject to the # of starts):

1. (3) Shonn Greene RB (1st Rd Keeper Value); 7 fantasy starts; 106.6 fp
2. (18) Philip Rivers QB; 12 fantasy starts; 370.6 fp
3. (23) Tony Gonzalez TE; 5 fantasy starts; 138.8 fp
3. (23) Chad Ochocinco WR; 9 fantasy starts; 132.55 fp
4. (38) Pierre Thomas RB; 4 fantasy starts (4 with Simba's Buttkicker!); 83.08 fp
5. (43) Jonathan Stewart RB; 6 fantasy starts; 100.15 fp
6. (58) Brandon Marshall WR; 11 fantasy starts; 153 fp
7. (63)
8. (78)
9. (83)
10. (98) San Francisco DEF; 8 fantasy starts (2 with SOCIAL ISoTopes and 6 with Points ON the Bench); 121 fp
11. (103) Mason Crosby K; 12 fantasy starts; 118 fp
12. (118)
13. (123) Jacoby Jones WR; 8 fantasy starts; 123.07 fp
14. (138) Visanthe Shiancoe TE; 8 fantasy starts; 85.5 fp
15. (143) BenJarvus Green-Ellis RB; 5 fantasy starts; 195.05 fp (Undrafted)
15. (143) Jacoby Ford WR; 0* fantasy starts; 146.67 fp (Undrafted)
15. (143) Kenny Britt WR; 1* fantasy start; 134.75 fp (Undrafted)
15. (143) Matt Cassel QB; 1* fantasy start; 293.14 fp (Undrafted)

Looking Ahead at 2011
From Here
In my opinion the only sure fire fantasy producer on D Kessler's team is his QB P Rivers Rd 2. Others have the potential to be productive but not as sure fire as Rivers. So the question becomes, who will be a more assured fantasy footballer in 2011 than the others in the list of potentials?

S Greene RB is the future RB for the NY Jets but with Rex Ryan riding on the last of the treading on the wheels called L Tomlinson, the future for Greene may still be a year away. But there's nothing like learning from one of the decade's best RBs in the meantime and that future could be bright for Greene. Is he worth a 1st Rd pick though?

There's no telling where C Ochocinco will play in 2011 since he is asking to be traded. And even if he remains in Cincinnati his QB situation is not at all fixed either with C Palmer requesting a trade as well. So we'll leave the talent also known as C Johnson the soccer player etc. a big question mark. Hopefully it is a clear scenario before the Brothers Keeper keeper declaration date. This is probably too big of question for a Rd 3 value too.

P Thomas is a solid RB. Last year he was injured. He is also on a team that has depth at RB and doesn't always require him to run. With that said, he is good and probably will perform at least at a Rd 4 level where he'd be kept.

J Stewart is a solid RB when healthy. He has missed time for injury every year which doesn't bode well. He could have the most healthy year in 2011 but he is such a nimble quick runner that he could hurt himself just by running too fast. D Williams is a free agent so we are unsure as to whether or not he'd remain in Carolina or sign elsewhere. As a 5th Rd value keeper he'd have the potential to either perform like A Foster or R Bush. Here's why: It definitely depends on whether or not D Williams is in front of J Stewart on the depth chart and if M Goodson RB shares a large number of carries as a backup to Stewart. With a new head coach in Carolina for 2011 we'll have to wait and see what happens in the preseason following the signing of D Williams.

From Here
B Marshall WR had an interesting year in Miami in 2010. He was a great threat when in Denver. Now he has C Henne passing the ball. C Pennington QB will not play this year and become another former player analyst on TV. So if Henne goes down again Pennington isn't there to be the solid backup and still keep B Marshall productive. He isn't a bad value as a 6th Rd pick, but he would need to outperform what he did in 2011 by about 1 FP per week to just meet the 2010 Ideal Draft Chart Value. He performed like a 10th Rd selection. He is in a much more solid situation than C Ochocinco WR or J Stewart RB. His QB has thrown to him before and his coaching staff remains in place. Now that he will be in his second year in Miami he should be back to a more productive line with a higher reception total and thus more chances to score TDs.

From Here
While it may be hard to believe, B Green-Ellis RB is also on the list under consideration. His 195.05 FP is nothing to sneeze at. L Maroney RB has left the building and B Green-Ellis appears to lead the pack of RBs in NE now. When he ran the ball close to 20 times a game he had around 80+ yards and a really good chance at scoring a TD. Not bad for a 15th Rd keeper value.

J Ford WR, K Britt WR, and M Cassel QB, all 15th Rd value keepers, are Points ON the Bench's developmental eligible players. Depending on where Points ON the Bench wants depth, QB or WR, will determine which of the 3 to keep. Both WRs will experience new head coaches. So we have no idea how each will learn a new play book or even be utilized. Nor is the QB situation in Tennessee or Oakland a lock, let alone filled with talent. K Britt is having offseason legal issues which makes him more questionable too. There was a reason all three of these went undrafted in last year's draft. They could easily be unkept probably too.

My Best Guess at Points ON the Bench's 2011 Keepers
If I were to guess who Points ON the Bench would keep I might be tempted to say D Kessler would keep a TE again. T Gonzalez TE is definitely a future Hall of Famer. He has a great QB throwing the ball in Atlanta too. But keeping a TE in the 3d Rd in 2011 makes no sense when it wasn't productive to do so in the 4th Rd in 2010. Besides, there have been a lot of TEs emerge as viable fantasy options in recent years and the top TEs are no longer as select as they once used to be. Plus, T Gonzalez is old for an NFL player. So in my guess, I will say Kessler is finished with keeping the TE. The strategy may have had a helping hand in 2008 for his championship run but now is the time to work on a new strategy and his team could be a playoff contender for a few years with S Greene RB, P Rivers QB, and B Marshall WR. If not S Greene (freeing up a 1st Rd pick) then he would probably go with P Thomas RB over J Stewart RB. That provides Kessler with a 1st and 3d Rd pick too. So maybe P Thomas is the one to go with other than S Greene unless he thinks J Stewart will do well in 2011 despite the unknowns in Carolina.

Brothers Keeper Third Party Consultant's Best Guess at Points ON the Bench's 2011 Keepers
"I'm going Rivers, J Stewart, B Marshall and Kenny Britt as the developmental keeper. That gives him two WRs and one RB with a 1st and 3rd pick still to follow. In those rounds I would probably go with an RB (Greene) at #3 or the best available WR. He's got decent building blocks with J Stewart having the skills to be the best back in the NFL. The guy is a legit option as a top 3-5 pick if he's a starter and D Williams is out the door in Carolina next year. Rivers is the best fantasy QB in the NFL right now. The guy is a one man show and Turner shows no signs of slowing him down and as a 2nd Rd pick is about where he would go. Marshall and Britt are great WRs with bad QBs. If Marshall would have stayed in Denver he would be a top 3 WR. Britt is an absolute beast on the field when a QB with decent talent is throwing him the ball. If you go back and watch his highlights from that 200 yrd game he had you'll be surprised he didn't have 300 yrds. He is almost impossible for DBs to tackle."


  1. i am now caught up, finally have read all the blogs to date. Very nice job pete, quite enjoyable. Mitch

  2. Pete....great job to a lot of great organizing for everyone to enjoy. It's a shame that Kabuki is out, but it will be a lot better competition now that Mikey is in.