Thursday, November 10, 2011

Evaluating the Current State of the League Standings

At Brothers Keeper we are at an interesting crossroads in the 2011 campaign. With ten teams contending for six playoff spots a completely competitive weekend of matchups begins tonight with the start of Thursday night NFL games. So let's take some time to look at the current state of the league's standings and where it could end up after week 10.

The current Brothers Keeper standings:

Let's begin with a few observations. The first place team is the leading point scorer. The last place team has scored the least amount of fantasy points. This is usually expected but not always true. It should be noted that 267.98 fantasy points separate the top team from the worst team which averages out to 29.76 points per week. This is a significant advantage.

To break it down more broadly, four teams have scored more than 1000 FP with two of those over 1100 FP. Four of the five teams that have scored over 900 points only have 17.01 FP separating them.

However, if we were to consider the league as a whole the average fantasy points scored is 996 with a standard deviation of 84 points. Spread out over nine weeks and the average score is 110.67 fantasy points with teams winning by about 9.34 points. It is remarkably competitive this year as evidenced also by a number of games decided by less than 1 fantasy point. If week nine's results were different, Brothers Keeper could have had two teams at 5 - 4, six teams at 4 - 5, and one team at 3 - 6. That is nine teams vying with a significant chance for the last five playoff spots with four weeks of play remaining.

Because of this week's matchups the standings could potentially be more compact:

1. Ghost could be 8 - 2 or 7 - 3 (plays Points ON the Bench)
2. MOTHERSHIP RUSH could be 7 - 3 or 6 - 4 (plays Yankinfowlsandfeline)
3. Yankinfowlsandfeline could be 6 - 4 or 5 - 5 (plays MOTHERSHIP RUSH)
4. TheSloppyButts could be 6 - 4 or 5 - 5 (plays Forever Tide)
5. Forever Tide could be 6 - 4 or 5 - 5 (plays TheSloppyButts)
6. Rmmm's Golden Eagle could be 5 - 5 or 4 - 6 (plays Simba's Buttkicker!)
7. Simba's Buttkicker! could be 5 - 5 or 4 - 6 (plays Rmmm's Golden Eagle)
8. Points ON the Bench could be 4 - 6 or 3 - 7 (plays Ghost)
9. Yer X-MOM could be 4 - 6 or 3 - 7 (plays ThePunchin Munchkins)
10. ThePunchin Munchkins could be 4 - 6 or 3 - 7 (plays Yer X-MOM)

Obviously not all three teams currently at 3 - 6 will be 4 - 6 since two of those teams play each other. This was just a scan of each team's win - loss records if they won or if they lost. By using fractional points, it is hard to imagine a tie will occur in any of this week's matchups. But this should be a quick guide for you to consider what the potential standings will be after week 10 if you think through each matchup's winner or loser.

Moving from the bottom to the top of the standings, what we can affirm for sure about the standings after week 10 is as follows:

1. There will be at least one team at 3 - 7, possibly two at most.
2. There will be at least two teams at 4 - 6, possibly three at most.
3. There will be at least two teams at 5 - 5, possibly three at most.
4. There will be at least one team at 6 - 4, possibly three, but not two.

This means that there is a ton of potential for most teams to still fight for the playoffs in the final three weeks of the regular season. In the most competitive week ten standings eight teams could be within two wins of one another. That would be three teams at 4 - 6, two at 5 - 5, and three at 6 - 4. It ain't over until it is over folks.

So how did it get this way? My guess, the new 3 Factor Power Ranking Draft Order, better drafting (although we will need to see if this is true after the season is completed), better team building (keeper declarations), and possibly better sit/start decisions has helped the parity. These will have to be explored at a later date, but the fact remains that Brothers Keeper is healthy in its competition this year.

1 comment:

  1. I couldn't agree more about the competitiveness. Doesn't seem like there's been as many blowouts this year. The average game being decided by less than 10 points really spotlights how important start/sit decisions will be over the next 4 weeks.