Thursday, July 28, 2011

Looking Ahead 2011: TheSloppyButts

This is the ninth post of a series of blogs covering each team from the 2010 Brothers Keeper league in detail. We began with the last place team and are moving up to the top of the league standings as it stood at the end of the 2010 fantasy football season (cf. CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS; Kabuki Strikes Back; Simba's Buttkicker!; Points ON the Bench; Rmmm's Dropping 3's; SOCIAL ISoTopes; Ghost; and  Yankinfowlsandfeline). This post will present our 2d Place Silver Medalist Trophy Winner, and 1st runner up, TheSloppyButts (M R Smith).

Overview of M R Smith's Brothers Keeper History
2007 CustodianPandemonium: 7-7-0 (8th Place) 1349.14 points; 17 transactions
2008 The Cleaning Lady: 6-7-0 (3d Place) 1288.31 points; 11 transactions
2009 CustodianPandemonium: 5-8-0 (9th Place) 1279.83 points; 14 transactions
2010 TheSloppyButts: 9-4-0 (2d Place) 1448.64 points; 13 transactions

TheSloppyButts's 2010 Keeper Declaration
Let's get one thing straight. Ninth place in 2009 didn't do TheSloppyButts justice. M R Smith had plenty of talent and it showed in 2010. His foundation was as rock solid as any other team in the league. How he nabs talent so early in their careers is beyond me. He also knows when to hang on to someone for the long haul. Just look at W Welker WR. The shifty white guy T Brady throws to is a PPR stud. M R Smith has had him since his breakout and no one else has had the chance to draft him. Now D Jackson WR and J Charles RB are in the mix too. Both are young and capable and free agent pickups who have been kept for remarkable late round draft picks. In 2009 S Smith WR (NYG) emerged as a viable WR threat with E Manning as his QB. He was someone worth taking a stab at as a keeper. The guys M R Smith let go like B Westbrook RB (unsigned for much of 2010), K Warner QB (retired), V Jackson WR (2010 holdout followed by suspension), K Smith RB (nowhere to be seen), and H Ward WR (dropped off significantly) were all correctly let go. Only J Flacco was a viable 2010 fantasy player compared on the 2009 final roster and M R Smith, despite letting him go, drafted him in the 6th Rd. Of the players kept by M R Smith, only S Smith WR (NYG) underperformed the Ideal Draft Value Chart level having only played 9 games. Paying for him with an 8th Rd draft pick was not a great loss but it was higher than the final outcome was worth.

TheSloppyButts's 2010 Draft
Following the old Keeper League Draft Order Rule TheSloppyButts (M R Smith) had the 2d overall draft pick position in the 2010 draft due to his 2009 9th place finish. His 2010 draft results are thus (noting those who were kept from his 2009 final roster with a This player is a keeper.):

2.(19)Vernon Davis (SF - TE)
3.(22)LeSean McCoy (Phi - RB)
4.(38)Ray Rice This player is a keeper. (Bal - RB)
5.(42)Anquan Boldin (Bal - WR)
6.(59)Ricky Williams (Mia - RB)
7.(62)Joe Flacco (Bal - QB)
8.(79)Willis McGahee (Bal - RB)
9.(82)Steve Smith This player is a keeper. (NYG - WR)
10.(99)Green Bay (GB - DEF)
11.(102)Sidney Rice (Min - WR)
12.(119)Alex Smith (SF - QB)
13.(122)Wes Welker This player is a keeper. (NE - WR)
14.(138)Matt Prater (Den - K)
14.(139)DeSean Jackson This player is a keeper. (Phi - WR)
15.(142)Jamaal Charles This player is a keeper. (KC - RB)

Here's TheSloppyButts's 2010 draft compared to the 2010 Brothers Keeper Fantasy Football Ideal Draft Value Chart results:

Right off the bat you should be able to see that only two players drafted by M R Smith performed higher than their Ideal Draft Value Chart position: L McCoy RB and Green Bay DEF. No one else came close. This should tell you one thing. The strength of TheSloppyButts's 2010 team was almost solely in his keepers, one of which was traded for before the draft. There was no 1st Rd pick as it was traded away for R Rice RB as analyzed on the previous post concerning Yankinfowlsandfeline. In summary it was a pretty even and fair trade by FPOB measures.

The interesting notes from the draft are this: V Davis TE wasn't a bad choice to draft as TEs were coming off the board hard and fast. A Boldin WR was on a new team learning a new role on a new offense. He wasn't going to change the game plan of the Baltimore Ravens offense in one season. Nor would he have been downright awesome with the trashcan QBs in Arizona either but he needed a year to make an inroad into the team's offense. R Williams RB bombed just like R Brown RB did in Miami's offense. Both were also old. J Flacco is a good QB who led his team to the AFC Championship again. He had a new QB coach in Jim Zorn and now that Zorn is gone we'll see if his offensive coordinator Cam Cameron will take him to the next level. Maybe he'll be worth a 7th Rd pick this year. It is hard to know just yet. In 2010 he was not. W McGahee RB was the R Rice trade protection handcuff. A nice investment if R Rice were to get injured but it didn't happen. After grabbing every Ravens offense candidate but D Mason, who was old anyhow, M R Smith bombed with S Rice WR and A Smith QB. There's no telling what S Rice and B Favre would have done together if healthy again but it failed to materialize. With D Jackson, and W Welker though, the poor draft picks at WR weren't too terrible after all. He just needed adequate bye week replacements. Same goes for the RB situation. All he needed was bye week fill ins. A conservative pick in J Flacco was not a bad choice at QB either. All M R Smith needed was consistency and a guy who wouldn't shoot himself in the foot. Other than M R Smith's decision to be too Baltimore Ravens oriented, the draft, while not good, didn't hurt TheSloppyButts from going to the championship game for the first time in his4 years of Brothers Keeper play.

2010 End of Season Commentary
To be brief one would run straight to the 9-4-0 second place regular season finish. He earned a bye week the first week of the playoffs by merely outscoring SOCIAL ISoTopes by less than 3 FP on the season which changed everything. Then with a little success against a weakened Ghost in the semifinals it was a quick ticket to the big show with Yer X-MOM. Ghost didn't even have a chance as his whole team did terrible.

The championship was close but a loss. Not even an optimal lineup (subbing S Holmes for D Jackson) would have helped. Both teams weren't at the top of their games but neither team was under 100 FP either. In fact, looking back at the regular season TheSloppyButts had played Yer X-MOM twice with a 1-1 record. In week 3 TheSloppyButts won 125.29 - 120.54. In week 12 Yer X-MOM decimated TheSloppyButts 103.71 - 152.14. Regardless, TheSloppyButts still clinched a playoff spot. The Brothers Keeper Championship was the tie breaker between these two teams. Only one of the 5 losses (4 regular season losses and the championship game loss) saw TheSloppyButts score under 100 FP. He had a tough team to beat and wasn't a pushover.

So here's the 2010 Brothers Keeper 4 1st Runner Up, 2d Place Silver Medalist Trophy for M R Smith's TheSloppyButts. Hope you enjoy it!

TheSloppyButts's Final 2010 Roster
I have included the upcoming 2011 draft round and pick number (overall pick is in parentheses) of each player on TheSloppyButts's final roster followed by the name of the player, player's position, any 1st Rd Keeper Value players, total # of fantasy starts for the season (a * indicates developmental eligibility for 2011's draft; some players were on more than one team but their total starts for all teams is listed); and total fantasy points scored by the player for the 16 fantasy week season (which is not subject to the # of starts):

1. (9)
2. (12) Vernon Davis TE;14 fantasy starts; 145.7 fp
3. (29) LeSean McCoy RB; 14 fantasy starts; 267.6 fp
3. (29) Ray Rice RB; 14 fantasy starts; 248.8 fp
4. (32)
5. (49) Anquan Boldin WR; 5 fantasy starts; 145.81 fp
6. (52)
7. (69) Joe Flacco QB; 10 fantasy starts; 291.28 fp
7. (69) Santonio Holmes WR; 2* fantasy starts; 124.33 fp
8. (72) Steve Smith (NYG) WR; 2* fantasy starts; 92.45 fp
9. (89)
10. (92) Green Bay DEF; 12 fantasy starts; 177 fp
11. (109) Sidney Rice WR; 1* fantasy starts; 43 fp
12. (112) Wes Welker WR; 11 fantasy starts; 172.6 fp
13. (129) Chicago DEF; 12 fantasy starts (2 with Simba's Buttkicker! 9 with Yer X-MOM and 1 with TheSloppyButts); 148 fp
13. (129) DeSean Jackson WR; 12 fantasy starts; 163.9 fp
14. (132) Jamaal Charles RB; 13 fantasy starts; 259.1 fp
15. (149) Josh Brown K; 6 fantasy starts; 131 fp (Undrafted)
15. (149) Mark Sanchez QB; 4 fantasy starts; 246.14 fp (Undrafted)

Looking Ahead at 2011
Joe Flacco got married this offseason. So did Tony Romo and Ben Roethlisberger, too.
"Mawwage. Mawwage is what bwings
us togethew today. Mawwage, that bwessed
awwangement, that dweam within a dweam.
And wove, twue wove, wiww fowwow you
fowevah-- So tweasuwe youw wove, --"
 What else is there to do for a QB to do than to use this lockout wisely and make a new family unit... unless you're named Jay Cutler? Well, M R Smith is in a similar situation. Who will he wisely choose to marry with from the 2010 final roster and who will he dump Jay Cutler style? The goal is to reach the finals he so desperately wants to win. He was "all in" mode in 2010 and should be again in 2011. He made a studly trade to compliment his keepers and made the finals. Will he be able to do so again? Will he pick the wrong guys? Will a bad draft keep him down? We'll see, but looking ahead at 2011 should give one pause to consider what needs to be done on a macro level. Surely, he can trade fine if need be. But he needs to maximize his choice for keepers and do a better job drafting in 2011 to be the dominate guy people dislike playing every week.

On a smaller level, TheSloppyButts needs to figure out how many of each position will need to be kept. Right now there are 3 viable RBs and 2 studly WRs... maybe 5 WRs if you think of the performances of S Holmes, S Smith and S Rice of 2009. There are even 2 up and coming QBs in J Flacco and M Sanchez. There is no reason they should regress unless they suffer a catastrophic injury. Should he keep a combination of 2 from one position and 1 from the other position or vice versa? It is hard to say. Maybe one position shouldn't be kept at all?

Maybe which positions to fill isn't as important of a question as is the value of each keeper worthy player? This is definitely on the same macro level of consideration. If we were to look at value then the later draft value guys seem more poised to outperform their Ideal Draft Chart value in 2011 than the earlier round guys. In fact, if looked at it from this perspective, if one of those guys fails to live up to the 2011 Ideal Draft Value Chart level, then loss isn't as potentially dangerous as keeping a guy with an earlier keeper value since the more early picks will be more advantageous. It will be a question that will haunt M R Smith until the keeper declaration deadline. The strategery involved is mind maddening. Before you marry someone, you wrestle with the same issue(s) you do in keeper leagues. In reality you do not know the future performance of the individual. You can make a guesstimate but you really do not know for sure. Only God knows the future. We just pray we make the best choice along the way.

So who are the potentials? At RB M R Smith has L McCoy, R Rice, and J Charles. No surprise there. At WR (excluding the developmental eligibles), the most likely to be considered are W Welker and D Jackson. At QB J Flacco and M Sanchez. And because M R Smith is a San Francisco 49ers fan, I wouldn't put it past him to consider the up and coming Vernon Davis in the TE position either. He has been targeted by other league owners in previous years as well. M Peltonen comes to mind.

As we begin to delve into the RB considerations, I must say up front all three RBs are legitimate productive guys for their teams. They are the unquestioned starters and are being ranked as 1st round fantasy RBs (if not 2d Rd for L McCoy in some drafts). Personally, if one were inclined to keep two of the three RBs and one WR that would set up the 2011 season with 2 top RBs and 2 solid WRs... all at a good value compared to their ADP. M R Smith probably cannot go wrong with the choice before him. So I will highlight the things to be aware of when making the final selection. I in no way intend to dissuade M R Smith from making his decision to keep these three RBs... even if I say "don't do it" on R Rice. Consider it more as an entertaining comment.

If we consider the obvious talent we like to call J Charles RB as a keeper, note that while most assume he will finally be the unrivaled starter in Kansas City, Todd Haley and crew have yet to employ him as the lone ball carrier. Maybe it is from his days as an assistant under Bill Belichick in New England who never subscribed to a lone RB rule. But for whatever anti-fantasy football reason he has, even if it is just plain egotism, he has been loyal to the RBBC approach of modern NFL teams. T Jones RB might be gone but they still might pick up someone else like the Ravens' L McClain to fill the role of keeping J Charles tamed as more of a RB1.5 option rather than a straight out RB1. McClain has been wanting more carries and that wasn't his primary role in Baltimore. He was the bulldozer for R Rice and W McGahee and an occasional goal line punch. Back to J Charles, it should also be noted that Charlie Weiss will no longer be the offensive coordinator for Kansas City. He has taken on the Florida Gators. Could this also modify J Charles's  production going into 2011? They need to learn new plays and be on top of the opposing defenses fast in this shortened training camp too. So at the very least temper the expectations especially if Todd Hailey blows up and alienates his team too.

Revenge from all the the females
or Raven Hate?
It should be noted that R Rice RB had knee surgery back in March. Plus, he has been running his mouth at the Pittsburgh Steelers's H Ward for his DUI. This is a dangerous situation if you think about it. Those two teams are incredibly hostile to one another. For example, after R Mendenhall RB ran his mouth before a game via text message to a Raven player, a bounty (although denied) was placed on him and R Mendenhall ended up with a broken leg missing his rookie season. People get hurt bad when these two teams face one another. No one's ever heard of the ghost of Tommy Maddox QB since the Ravens started B Roethlisberger's career with Maddox's injury. Dare we consider how many times Todd Heap TE was hurt when these teams played? Remember B Roethlisberger's nose in the playoffs? That beak was crinkled up like a cornflake thanks to the T Suggs chop. These dudes love to hate and hurt one another and it isn't just for show. Now that R Rice is running his mouth, he'll be the next one targeted in this rivalry. Mark it dude. Stay clear away from this week 1 injury. That's right, the Ravens look to extend the Steelers losing streak to 2 games straight (Super Bowl loss after sting!). I repeat: steer clear of this injury concern. He's not worth keeping for this very reason alone. Spending a 3d Rd pick on a guy who could be done for in the 1st quarter of the 1st regular season game is a huge loss. Don't do it. Besides, the offensive line is in flux and it may not be as good as it has been in recent years because of some of the offseason moves. Considering that an offensive line is the most important aspect to a running back's success, R Rice will need to be reconsidered before determining if he should be a keeper. Also, if L McClain is no longer the FB bowling ball paving the way for R Rice it is worth thinking about too. So watch if L McClain is re-signed by the Ravens or signs elsewhere to fulfill his dreams of carrying the ball more.

The third RB under consideration is L McCoy of the Philadelphia Eagles... home of the 2d coming of M Vick. Why would the Eagles want to rely upon a RB when you have a RB mentality installed into the head of the QB already? Well, for blocking of course. I'm not saying they will never use L McCoy with M Vick under center, but the NFL has become a very pass happy league too. L McCoy did a good job as the starter in 2010 and should do so in 2011. It all depends on how the defenses handle Vick. Late in the 2010 season defenses seemed to figure out how to contain the guy and made him more bark than bite. He still has a rocket of an arm and loved tossing to his down field threats in D Jackson. My guess is that Vick will elude pass rushers to make a play down field develop but will have problems if he is contained on the edges. The best case is for M R Smith to figure out if he can find the rushing and passing stats for L McCoy for when K Kolb was the QB compared to when M Vick was the QB in the 2010 season. If the comparison reveals a significant drop in the percentage of targets and carries while M Vick was the QB then maybe R Rice and J Charles will be better off considering as the keeper selection and free up a third pick for a QB or WR. Any two of these RBs will probably be fine. Picking the one with the later draft value will be safer than the one with the earlier draft value if we consider the risk factor. If there is one thing everyone should know (and the Brothers Keeper Ideal Draft Value Chart proves) earlier draft picks are more valuable.

As we turn to the WRs for consideration know that solid WRs have been on Brothers Keeper championship teams for years. In the inaugural Brothers Keeper championship J Smith's Yank had M Colston and B Edwards who averaged almost 230 FP a piece. The 2008 champion, D Kesseler's PAIN had D Bowe, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, B Marshall, and S Smith (Car). All four of them averaged over 180 FP for the season. In 2009 P Smith's Yer X-MOM had S Holmes and A Johnson who both averaged 200 FP. Rookies J Maclin and H Nicks averaged 122 FP each in their breakouts. In 2010 P Smith's repeat championship run with Yer X-MOM had D Bowe, A Johnson, M Wallace, and M Williams (TB) and those four together averaged 194 FP. In conclusion, WRs are extremely important to the success of a keeper league team's championship run. There is no telling if a team could make it without competent WRs. There are so few consistently good WRs in football. For instance in 2010 only 9 WRs scored over 11 FP per game (15 WRs who scored over 10 FP per game). That is not even enough for 2 of these consistently good WRs for each team. They are rare. The need to hang on to an elite WR is high if a team is able to do so.

So who are the WRs worth considering on TheSloppyButts final roster? The three  non-developmental eligible WRs that should be considered are A Boldin, W Welker, and D Jackson. In a vacuum, maintaining even two of these el primo WRs would set up a team for a solid 2011 fantasy season. They all can be had at a descent price and would definitely be wise decisions. Boldin might not be on some lists but if you consider that (1) he should do better the second year on his new team, (2) D Mason and T Heap may be gone (if they are not re-signed) with D Stallworth already signed by the Redskins, and (3) the further progress and development of his QB J Flacco entering his prime then you should acknowledge the potential that exists for a really great 2011 fantasy season. So not only will his QB be better, but Boldin will know the playbook more and face more targets. He is worth a look. He was studly in Arizona even along side of L Fitzgerald, E Doucet, and S Breaston. He should be very productive again. He isn't old yet and he has great hands.

W Welker has been a mainstay for M R Smith ever since he was picked up as a free agent back in the inaugural 2007 Brothers Keeper season. He was initially kept as a 15th Rd draft pick and ever since has been creeping up the value chart due to the consecutive year keeper rules. He has always been a solid PPR guy just because of the higher reception totals. He's got great chemistry with Tom Brady throwing his way and he will be 1.5 years removed from his season ending injury. In fact, he kept getting better and better last year. Plus, R Moss is out of town and will unlikely be re-signed by the Patriots. But you never know.

Finally, DeSean Jackson is supposedly going to hold out. He was great as a WR and a special teams player. Gaining FP for special team production along side his WR exploits is a real nice bonus. Let us not forget that ESPY winning punt return against the NY Giants to win in one for the greatest comebacks in NFL history (thanks to Matt Dodge's failure to punt the football out of bounds... although it was a bad snap.... and his hands were seriously cold from... standing on the sidelines). If D Jackson is going to conduct himself as a greedy non-contract honoring WR in the NFL then we ought to start investigating if Keyshawn Johnson, Terrell Owens, and Randy Moss are mentoring him collectively. If so all fantasy owners everywhere should be alarmed. Otherwise he'd be a lock to consider as a keeper... if he plays... and if no other keeper spots were so valuable to waste.

Next we have the young QBs to consider. Will Mark Sanchez Make a Leap in 2011? After all, his production did drop off toward the end of the season. But he is willing to restructure his deal to sign more free agents (see my comments about S Holmes below). Plus, the Jets appear to be ready to pass more:
In a voice message sent to fans this week, Coach Rex Ryan said that he expected his team 'to let it fly a little more than we have in the past,' a signal that he expects quarterback Mark Sanchez to throw the ball more this season.Sanchez said Tuesday that he was willing to restructure his long-term contract if it would give the Jets the financial flexibility to sign more free agents.
Joe Flacco is set to continue his progress as a QB. Following the end of the Ravens playoff run, the front office let the QB coach Jim Zorn go. Offensive coordinator Cam Cameron is going to be more involved in the continuation of Joe Flacco's development from here on out. This is not to say Joe Flacco hasn't progressed because he has. But it has exposed Flacco to a few perspectives to learn from rather than a single one. This is at least his third QB coach change (Hue Jackson, the new head coach of the Oakland Raiders was the QB coach on the Ravens prior to Jim Zorn). He should be more well rounded in his learning. Paying attention to the new voice will be the next step. Because the Ravens sought to sign former Indianapolis Colts offensive coordinator Tom Moore (the man you always saw in the booth talking to Peyton Manning) as a consultant from his home (the NY Jets beat them to the punch) my guess is that the Ravens are beginning to let Joe Flacco call plays on his own... or at least move into that direction. This attempt to get Moore should be considered a good sign in his development as the organization trusts Flacco more and more to parse the defensive schemes and react under the center.

At TE M R Smith has the "hometown" favorite from the 49ers. Vernon Davis may benefit from the new San Francisco schemes with the new head coach. He has taken a step forward in being a vocal leader on the offensive side of the ball and has become a very dedicated player. We should only hope that with whatever QB decision made he should be a reliable go to TE.

The decision is tough but I think the late round values for J Charles RB (Rd 14) and D Jackson WR (Rd 13)or W Welker WR (Rd12) cannot be denied. The name of the game is value and all three are great late round keepers. I figure he'll keep one of those two WRs and J Charles for sure. Of the two WRs he'll most likely keep the speedy deep threat in Jackson (because of his special teams involvement, although Welker has been on special teams too, but not as lethal). Jackson is also younger than Welker and hasn't suffered an extensive injury like Welker did. To keep all three of those guys would be a great move but you have to consider he'd also be tossing R Rice and L McCoy back into the mix for the upcoming draft. If he wants one of them he will have to be more selective and take one of those two WRs and draft another one.

Then the decision comes down to R Rice and L McCoy. Both are early in their careers and very similar in terms of size and skill sets. Neither one of them are bad. Both are worth a 3d Rd pick. Your guess is as good as mine but I will lean toward R Rice simply because J Flacco isn't going to run like M Vick and therefore take away carries and rushing yardage from the RB.

If he keeps all three RBs and a developmental that too could be advantageous to him but he would lose his 2d round pick by keeping both L McCoy and R Rice (both 3d Rd values). That would also mean he needs to grab a WR late in round 1 and then won't pick again until round 4. On top of all of that he would lose incredible future value for both D Jackson and W Welker if he were to throw them away. R Rice also makes sense because if he keeps L McCoy and D Jackson he may too heavily invested in one team. If he keeps Welker instead of Jackson and L McCoy is higher on his preferred RB rankings list then maybe it'll be R Rice who isn't kept. But Welker is older than Jackson and is worth an earlier round's draft pick.

So let's move on to the developmental eligible players. Why M Sanchez QB wasn't started only 3 times instead of 4 times is beyond me. It is what it is and he was in a championship run and thus excusable.
Too bad, S Smith WR (NYG) isn't worth considering as a developmental keeper anymore. "Why?" you ask. Well, the dude hasn't recovered from microfracture surgery and is expected to make the PUP list. That doesn't mean he can't be of use the second half of the season, just ask the 2010 version of Ed Reed S, but it does mean his fantasy value plummets. he wouldn't be worth the Rd 7 draft pick premium paid to retain him. Draft him after Rd 10 and you might have a late season steal. Otherwise he'll be wasting a roster spot which is pretty rare already when you have only 15 roster spots. It doesn't free up waiver wire play to keep a man who will not be worth a spot for half of the regular season of fantasy play.

After S Smith, S Holmes WR and S Rice WR are the last two available developmental keepers. S Holmes WR performed admirably last year but may not return to the Jets for 2011 (UPDATE: Signed 5 year deal with NY Jets). It all depends in the week or two ahead. If he is going to be catching passes from M Sanchez then M R Smith will probably go with the known commodity in the fold. Otherwise, S Rice is also an unknown for which team he will play for in 2011 (latest reports say he will be a Seattle Seahawk). On top of that he has some health concerns like S Smith.

The most logical choice as a developmental pick would be S Holmes WR as a 7th rounder. Not a bad price. Maybe even a steal. But just because you have the option to use a developmental pick doesn't mean you have to. If S Holmes is not a NY Jet in 2011, I might think it would be beneficial to M R Smith to trade for someone who he could use as a developmental or use the developmental pick as a trade option for someone who may need another developmental pick because of multiple developmental eligible players on their roster. Whatever the case, sticking with S Holmes who should be healthy in 2011 should not be a huge detriment to his team if he is not a NY Jet (one suggests he should be a Baltimore Raven). In fact, keeping S Holmes as a WR2 or WR3/Flex spot would not be bad at all. This would help round out his roster as a result of the choices made with the other 3 keeper picks. If the developmental is a WR then maybe he lets another WR go hoping to draft them back onto his roster? It all depends on who those 3 keepers are. Who his developmental pick will be is a no brainer: S Holmes WR.

My Best Guess at TheSloppyButts's 2011 Keepers
"Have you the wing?"
At least two RBs will be kept. J Charles is a definite keeper. Either one of R Rice or L McCoy and either W Welker or D Jackson will be kept along with S Holmes WR as the developmental guy. This would give him two very good RBs and two very talented WRs with plenty of early picks to snag the RB/WR flex, QB, and TE. Just which of those will be in Rd 4 will be up to him to decide. So my final guess is J Charles, D Jackson, R Rice, and S Holmes as the developmental eligible keeper but I could be way off. I've seen some crazy stuff before and we will see more crazy stuff before it is all said and done. There's always some kernal of truth about a player people hang on to and thus define as the deciding factor. Whatever that will be for M R Smith will only be revealed in time. If not, at least we'll know who he declares as his keepers for 2011.

Brothers Keeper Third Party Consultant's Best Guess at TheSloppyButts's 2011 Keepers
"Okay this one didn't take me as long as I thought it would but I would keep Ray Rice who should get more TD's since McGahee is gone. So his red zone carries should increase.

"Next I would keep Jamaal Charles, this year's top fantasy back. With T Jones old and now broken look for Charles to go over 1500 yrds rushing and close to about 2100-2200 total yrds and should cash in between 12-15 TDs overall. He should be this years stud.

"Next guy I'm keeping is DeSean Jackson who should be a top 8 WR this season if he and Vick can stay healthy. That offense should be rolling this year and the defense the Eagles are putting together is going to give them plenty of chances to put up points.

"As far as developmental keepers go I would roll the dice on Santonio Holmes who the Jets say is going to be 1b to Shonn Greene this year. I don't really like the Sanchize but I like him A LOT better than T Jackson QB or Whitehurst QB. So Sidney Rice is out the picture and will rot in hell. I mean, Seattle good luck.

"Man if you choose McCoy just remember his numbers went in the crapper as soon as Mike Vick was running the show because he was literally running and stealing all McCoy's carries and red zone touches."

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