Tuesday, August 23, 2011

Rating and Ranking the Accuracy of Fantasy Football Projection Sites: 2010 Season Results, Multi-Year Accuracy, Free Cheat Sheets, and Weekly Advice Winners


Accuracy can really matter a lot at times. Maybe not always. But sometimes you really need predictions to be correct. Perhaps it's a pregnancy test? You don't want to be like a woman all hopeful on a false positive and then find out some prediction instrument was baseless. No one likes let downs like that. We don't like it in fantasy football either.

Employers like genuine numbers too. Usually numbers related to money. Working the checkout you need to be exact with your cash register. Boss's care about those pennies! Those stock holders need to be paid somehow! So if you are asking yourself, "Who has the most accurate fantasy football projections?" or "Which cheatsheet should I use?" or something along those lines, this post is for you because you care about winning. You don't want to put your stock in something worthless.

The Accuracy of 2010 Preseason Fantasy Football Projections
So whose fantasy football draft rankings are the most accurate? Whose fantasy football projections are the best? I like accurate fantasy football projections and so should you. Last year I introduced you to a blogger who has taken it upon herself to evaluate preseason fantasy football projections after the fantasy season is completed. Finally someone is holding those prognosticators feet to the proverbial fire. There was a huge void to fill and she has done so quite unbiasedly. Thankfully after each season she does the major task of evaluating the most accurate fantasy football projections on the Internet (submitted to her) and then reports them to the fantasy football playing masses (Bless you Fantasy Football Librarian!). So who has the most accurate fantasy football projections? Who is the best predictor of regular season fantasy football statistics? And by the way, she, thankfully, breaks it down by position for each year as well. So for your viewing pleasure check out: 2010 (see also the F.S.T.A. contest results here); 2009; 2008; and 2007.

The Fantasy Football Librarian is no longer alone. Now you can also see FantasyPros accuracy evaluations from individual experts. So head on over to FantasyPros where they employ their PAY methodology to evaluate individual draft rankings from 2010 (see also the full results where you can view individual positions if you'd like). This doesn't just give you just website rankings results but you can also see multiple individual experts from each site evaluated. So take a look and maybe get informed about whose fantasy football rankings you should check out. Others like ProFootballWeekly and The NY Times Fifth Down have picked up on FantasyPros work.


The Multi-Year Accuracy of Fantasy Football Projections
It is all about consistency. Which fantasy football sites have the most accurate projections over the course of several years? The FFLibrarian has also collated the results from each of the previous years of research/analysis into Multi-year Accuracy Results thus determining which sites have been the most consistently correct over a longer period of time. See the previous post (FFLibrarian's Multi-year Accuracy Results) for last year's 2009's results. She has indicated since March that she will update the Multi-Year Accuracy Results with the 2010 season results but has yet to do so. Check back here or on her site and I will update this post when she does. It will be interesting to see which sites are climbing the ranks or falling compared to last year's Multi-year Accuracy Results.

Free Fantasy Football Cheat Sheets
If you haven't seen it, take a look at Fantasy Rundown's 2011 Fantasy Football Rankings & Cheat Sheets. There you will find a ton of rankings you can find for free all in one place nicely organized. Study up along with all the free flowing fantasy football news from my own FF & NFL News page. If you access my daily edited The Brothers Keeper Evening Star you can see past daily editions and read up on the news I highlight including fantasy football strategy articles and research. Check out my FF Tools page for more tools at your disposal. Some are free sites and others require money. You will also find some fantasy football research articles there and on my Advanced Stats page. Whatever the case you can't just use a cheat sheet any more. You need to be prepared with a plan and be up on the latest injury news and transitions on NFL


Weekly Sit/Start or Rankings Advice Accuracy
Another fantasy site (that I have mentioned before), FantasyPros began to evaluate the best weekly fantasy football sit/start advice in 2009. They did it again for each week of 2010 too. So check out their results and the interviews of their top experts. If you used FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rankings then you should see the results of using multiple combinations of sit/start advice (How Accurate are Expert Consensus Rankings?). By the way I have their widget on my NFL News page. It definitely advocates the "Wisdom of the Crowd" approach to your weekly sit/start decisions and gives you an idea for the accuracy of their widget.

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