Thursday, June 23, 2011

Looking Ahead 2011: Simba's Buttkicker!

This is the third post of a series of blogs covering each team from the 2010 Brothers Keeper league in detail. We began with the last place team moving up to the top of the league standings as it stood at the end of the 2010 fantasy football season (cf. CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS; and Kabuki Strikes Back). Next up, Simba's Buttkicker! (R Johnson).

Pseudo 'Champions' label on the t-shirt is out of place.
Overview of Simba's Buttkicker!'s Brothers Keeper History
2007 Simba's Butt Kicker: 4-10-0 (9th Place) 1535.54 points; 49 transactions
2008 Simba's Buttkicker: 2-11-0 (10th Place) 1080.75 points; 40 transactions
2009 Simba's ButtKicker!: 7-6-0 (4th Place) 1455.30 points; 29 transactions
2010 Simba's Buttkicker!: 2-11-0 (8th Place) 1193.53 points; 23 transactions

Simba's Buttkicker!'s 2010 Keeper Declaration
Who keeps a cat?
The Brothers Keeper Keeper Declaration day came and R Johnson elected to keep M Turner RB in the 2d Rd, R White WR in the 3d Rd, M Schaub QB in the 5th Rd, and J Cribbs WR as his developmental eligible keeper in the 15th Rd. Looking back one might have questioned if tossing aside D Williams RB was a good thing for 2010 but it was. Good choice. However, A Gates TE performed very well when healthy as a result of being one of P Rivers's QB only solid target with V Jackson WR unsigned. But he was MIA at the end of the regular season and fantasy playoffs. So maybe not such a bad idea to not keep him but he would have rewarded handsomely if he was.

By the way, let's get an updated look at the 2008 trade between J Fullerton and R Johnson:

Trade Comparison:
L Tomlinson
2008 Total Fantasy Points: 256.30
2009 Total Fantasy Points: 168.70
2010 Total Fantasy Points: 197.8
Total: 622.8

M Turner
2008 Total Fantasy Points: 275.95
2009 Total Fantasy Points: 149.85
2010 Total Fantasy Points: 221.35
Total: 647.15

M Turner is beginning to edge out L Tomlinson but not by much. I am actually pleasantly surprised it has turned out this even as I figured Tomlinson was on the downward trend in his career. However, while Tomlinson has been a first Rd keeper the last two seasons, Turner was kept as a 3d Rd pick in 2009 and a 2d Rd pick in 2010 thus freeing up R Johnson to select players earlier in the draft while J Fullerton didn't have the same luxury. So on two separate levels this has been a bonus for R Johnson in the long term.

Simba's Buttkicker!'s 2010 Draft
Following the old Keeper League Draft Order Rule Simba's Buttkicker! (R Johnson) had the 8th overall draft pick position in the 2010 draft due to his playoff loss. His 2010 draft results are thus (noting those who were kept from his 2009 final roster with a This player is a keeper.):

1.(8)Ryan Mathews (SD - RB)
2.(13)Michael Turner This player is a keeper. (Atl - RB)
3.(28)Roddy White This player is a keeper. (Atl - WR)
4.(33)Pierre Thomas (NO - RB)
5.(48)Matt Schaub This player is a keeper. (Hou - QB)
6.(53)Vincent Jackson (SD - WR)
7.(68)Dexter McCluster (KC - WR,RB)
8.(73)Fred Jackson (Buf - RB)
9.(88)Garrett Hartley (NO - K)
10.(93)Chris Cooley (Was - TE)
11.(108)Vince Young (Ten - QB)
12.(113)Rob Gronkowski (NE - TE)
13.(128)Chicago (Chi - DEF)
14.(133)Devin Hester (Chi - WR)
15.(148)Joshua Cribbs This player is a keeper. (Cle - WR)

Here's Simba's Buttkicker!'s 2010 Draft compared to the 2010 Brothers Keeper Fantasy Football Ideal Draft Value Chart results:


As you should be able to see, R Johnson's keepers (M Turner; R White; and M Schaub) performed well enough to have been good keeper selections (near or above the perfect market efficiency of their draft pick position). J Cribbs WR was definitely a viable keeper before 2010 began if one were inclined to employ 2009's late season successes. However he wasn't as good of a keeper for 2010. Since he was only worth a 15th Rd pick, it wasn't detrimental to Simba's Buttkicker!'s attempt to revisit the playoffs.

Going back to the 2008 trade with J Fullerton, in 2009 R Johnson selected D Williams RB and A Gates TE with his first two picks and they proved quite productive. In 2010 R Johnson selected R Mathews in the 1st Rd but with less success. The advantage for 2010 wasn't there as with 2009 on account of a lackluster draft choice.

What seems difficult to understand is who R Johnson should have selected with the 8th pick overall (3d pick if you consider the 1st Rd keepers). J Smith's Yankinfowlsandfeline selected G Jennings WR. Then D Kessler's Points ON the Bench nabbed S Greene RB. Hindsight is always 20/20. Personally I would have selected D Williams RB who underperformed anyhow. R Mathews RB was an untested highly toted rookie. In a keeper league I can understand why he would have been desired. But was he going to be a legitimate 3d overall pick? Only if he performed out of his gourd in the years to come. But that won't help Simba's Buttkicker! because he no longer is on his roster.

However this wasn't the full extent of R Johnson's failure. P Thomas RB might have been a good selection with the 4th Rd pick but he was injured missing a huge amount of the fantasy season. V Jackson WR in the 6th Rd would have been a great selection but V Jackson went unsigned for most of the fantasy season and then when he finally signed in order to gain an extra year to his resume (toward a more veteran status) he was hit with a suspension thus delaying his entry into league play even later. Then R Johnson selected D McCluster in the 7th Rd. He also did not produce near the Ideal Draft Value Chart level. While the keepers were good the draft picks were terrible. Three good keepers wasn't going to be able to sustain the weight of four bad draft picks in the first 7 rounds. My guess is that even if R Johnson's lot of draft picks performed as good or as conservatively as J Fullerton's draft picks R Johnson would have seen the playoffs for the 2d time in 4 years of Brothers Keeper league play.

End of Season Commentary
What else should one expect from a guy who is stuck in a bad relationship with M Turner (5.55 FP)? Feeling a sour relationship even before the season started R Johnson turned to Kareem "lotsa" Huggins RB for waiver wire hope. Hmmm... maybe now we know why Turner played so bad. Disloyalty is the worst kind of sin. Loyalty is rewarded heftily with benefits. Just look at R White's WR day (18.55 FP). Perhaps next time Simba's Buttkicker! will be able to make up the 13.73 points for a win. Nah, who am I kidding. He's a scavenger of the sea floor in Brothers Keeper sitting in 9th place after week one. Dance with the one who brung ya. Ok, so he dropped Kareem "lotsa" Huggins RB and picked up M Vick QB.... only to bench M Schaub who he kept from 2009. Schaub only scored 7.97 FP in week 1. In week 2 M Vick scored 28.06 FP but Simba's Buttkicker! lost 94.71 to 110.5. However, If he had started M Schaub instead of M Vick at QB he would have won. You see, M Schaub was the spurned dance partner now so he scored 42.08 FP. So let's see what week 3 will bring: R Johnson restarted M Schaub, though spurned, and and M Schaub said, "Not gonna do it" and scored only 11.64 FP. Meanwhile, M Vick scored 39.64 FP. Guess what. He could have won week 3 too since he lost by 15 points. Back and forth back and forth. Make up your mind old man and try to win. Stop being so disloyal to such sensitive fantasy stars.

R Johnson's floundering disloyal ways caused him to muse, "Another keeper team that sucks. It is going to be a long season!" on his team status. D Pilcher's Redmans CatClippers retorted, "I love it when the Buttt whines and loses... I really do..." And order was restored followed by 2 more losses. That's right, R Johnson opened the season with an 0-5 record. In fact, he lost so bad to Redmans CatClippers in week 5 that if you had doubled Simba's Buttkicker!'s FP he would have still lost. It just goes to show who's butt was really getting kicked. Poor cat. Even more disturbing than this is the following real pictures of R Johnson from his band Adam's Apple (or Adams Apple... disloyal to the apostrophe!):







Can't you hear it being sung?
When the truth is found to be lies
and all the joys within you dies
don't you want somebody to love
don't you need somebody to love
wouldn't you love somebody to love
you better find somebody to love
A rumor I heard supposedly had R Johnson kicked off the high school team by a coach because of the long hair. I hope it was worth being in a band playing with sticks than with baseball bats.

Oh yeah, where was I? Oh yeah. Week 6. Well somehow Simba's Buttkicker!'s opponent, Ghost, ended up with M Vick QB (see the trade on the upcoming Looking Ahead 2011: Ghost). M Schaub liked it and scored 27.5 FP and R Johnson finally cracked the 100 point barrier and saw his first fantasy win of 2010 (mainly because Ghost had some folks on a bye but we don't want to take anything away from R Johnson because he needs everything he can get as you will see). In week 7 R White WR and M Turner RB both dominated and pushed R Johnson to a season high (through the first 7 weeks) score of 123.51 FP over Points ON the Bench's 103.32 FP. This is the end of the high point of R Johnson's fantasy season. Short lived for a short in stature man as he.

I don't know how one could do it normally but R Johnson could do so if you ask me. He bested his 5 game losing streak to open the season with a 6 game losing streak to end the season. In fact, it seems even more improbable knowing that the last time he cracked the 100 point barrier in week 11 he scored 145.01 FP but lost to Kabuki Strikes Back's 158.24 FP trouncing. It's really a sad state of affairs for R Johnson.

Last year I warned:
This may not have been a very good strategy for R Johnson's future. The further he went into the playoffs the worse his draft pick position would be in 2010. In three years of Brothers Keeper drafting he has had 2 number one draft picks and 1 number two draft pick. He's never had anything past the third pick in the draft. With the 2009 4th place finish he will now suffer by drafting eighth. For a person who needs all the draft help he can get this might not be a good thing. It will all depend on his draft prep.
It appears 2009's late and probably unjustified playoff run set him up for a bigger failure than R Johnson believed due to a later than normal draft pick scenario for R Johnson. We can now add the upcoming 2011 draft to the numbers: In five years of Brothers Keeper drafting he will have had 3 number one draft picks and 1 number two draft pick along with 1 number 8 draft pick position. Unbelieveable. The man loves him some #1 draft pick... or he loves losing. This video reminds me of R Johnson's Brothers Keeper career:



He has yet to earn the "Champions" nomenclature his T-shirt suggests. I guess wearing such clothes (as with other outrageous outfits in the above photos) is an attempt to lift his spirits in losing times. Keep smiling R Johnson and we'll keep winning out of your reach... and on a personal note you and your wife are in our prayers.

Simba's Buttkicker!'s Final 2010 Roster
Despite winning a couple games in the consolation bracket, the 2010 version of Simba's Buttkicker!'s had a terrible regular season winning percentage and extremely low fantasy point total. As a result R Johnson qualified for the first overall draft pick position according to the new draft order equation. I have included the upcoming 2011 draft round and pick number (overall pick is in parentheses) of each player on Simba's Buttkicker!'s final roster followed by the name of the player, player's position, any 1st Rd Keeper Value players, total # of fantasy starts for the season (a * indicates developmental eligibility for 2011's draft; some players were on more than one team but their total starts for all teams is listed); and total fantasy points scored by the player for the 16 fantasy week season (which is not subject to the # of starts):

1. (1) Michael Truner RB (1st Rd Keeper Value); 11 fantasy starts; 221.35 fp
1. (1) Frank Gore RB (1st Rd Keeper Value); 11 fantasy starts (11 with SOCIAL ISoTopes); 179.9 fp
2. (20) Roddy White WR; 11 fantasy starts; 246.75 fp
3. (21)
4. (40) Matt Schaub QB; 11 fantasy starts; 323.6 fp
5. (41)
6. (60) Vincent Jackson WR; 1* fantasy start; 45.8 fp
7. (61) Thomas Jones RB; 10 fantasy starts (1 with Ghost and 9 with Simba's Buttkicker!); 143.7 fp
8. (80)
9. (81)
10. (100)
11. (101)
12. (120)
13. (121) Brandon Jacobs RB; 3* fantasy starts; 142.25 fp
14. (140)
15. (141) New England DEF; 2* fantasy starts; 174 fp (Undrafted)
15. (141) Stevie Johnson WR; 6 fantasy starts; 193.65 fp (Undrafted)
15. (141) Marcedes Lewis TE; 1* fantasy start (1 with Yer X-MOM); 149 fp (Undrafted)
15. (141) Mike Tolbert RB; 8 fantasy starts (4 with Ghost and 4 with Simba's Buttkicker!); 171.3 fp (Undrafted)
15. (141) Matt Bryant K; 5 fantasy starts (1 with SOCIAL ISoTopes and 4 with Simba's Buttkicker!); 135 fp (Undrafted)
15. (141) Lance Moore WR; 2* fantasy starts; 153.88 fp (Undrafted)
15. (141) Dustin Keller TE; 7 fantasy starts; 119.35 fp (Undrafted)
15. (141) Brad Smith WR; 0* fantasy starts; 106.07 fp (Undrafted)

Looking Ahead 2011
Stuck in the doldrums of picking first overall, R Johnson needs to do a better job keeping talent, drafting, and starting players on a week to week basis. Scoring near the bottom in total fantasy points so often just isn't going to get anyone anywhere they want to go in competition scenarios unless you play golf. R Johnson also cannot drop and add and sit and start people like he can in fantasy baseball competitions. NFL players don't have hot streaks. They are much more influenced by the defenses they face than maybe many are willing to admit.

I was surprised a frustrated Brothers Keeper Commissioner and SOCIAL ISoTopes owner, M Peltonen dropped a perennial underperforming F Gore RB so late in the fantasy season from his squad. Doing his due diligence R Johnson picked him up utilizing his waiver wire priority since he was in last place. But here's the thing. Now R Johnson is in a bit of a dilemma with his talent. M Turner RB Rd1, F Gore RB Rd 1, R White WR Rd 2, M Schaub QB Rd 4, V Jackson WR Rd 6, and S Johnson WR Rd 15 would be under my instant consideration to keep. V Jackson is developmental eligible so take him out of consideration for the 3 remaining keepers. That also give Simba's Buttkicker!'s a WR to begin with.

If one were so inclined to keep F Gore, M Turner, and R White (2 WRs and 2 RBs) R Johnson would not have a draft pick available to him to select a RB/WR Flex or QB until Rd 4 and Rd 5 (back to back picks picks 40 and 41). That leaves him waiting until Rd 7 for a TE.

Perhaps R Johnson would rather keep M Schaub QB instead of one of the RBs. That would free up a Rd 3 draft pick. Another way to free up a Rd 3 draft pick would be to not keep R White WR, but rather keep the up and coming S Johnson WR in the 15th Rd instead.
Another option could also free up the 1st pick overall, and his 3d Rd pick. In this scenario, because R Johnson has the first pick, he would not keep either RB but instead would have three WRs and a QB (R White, V Jackson, S Johnson, and M Schaub). With the 1st pick overall, he can easily pick his choice of F Gore or M Turner or any other RB of his choice available and still have a pick in the 3d Rd for another RB. Kind of a different route to take but one worth considering.

My Best Guess at Simba's Buttkicker!'s 2011
First and foremost R Johnson will definitely keep his old cat Simba. Maybe his cat is bad luck as his team's mascot, but it is his mascot. I guess he is loyal somewhere after all. In this section it is not for me to think what R Johnson should do but what it is he probably will do. My best guess is that F Gore RB, M Turner RB, R White WR, and V Jackson WR as developmental would be retained by R Johnson for 2011. My gut just doesn't tell me he passes on having two solid middle of the road RBs. It will put him into a position of depth at RB that he hasn't been in for some time.

Keepers Brothers Keeper Third Party Consultant's Best Guess at Simba's Buttkicker!'s 2011 Keepers
Running to the bathroom
"Okay after a couple days of debating on this I'm going Gore, Roddy White, Matt Schaub and V Jax as [the] developmental player. It took me around 2 days to decide who was the better between Gore and Turner but with Turner going on 30 this year and with Gore's line getting better I'm gonna roll with Frank the Tank! I chose Schaub over Turner as well because when healthy he's a top 5 fantasy QB and with a healthy Owen Daniels coming back this year along with A Johnson and Arian Foster he should be back in the top 5. It's gonna be close but he should find another decent starting RB in Rd 3 that should be a prime spot to grab a new starter or a decent vet."

Tuesday, June 21, 2011

Looking Ahead 2011: Kabuki Strikes Back

This is the second post of a series of blogs covering each team from the 2010 Brothers Keeper league in detail. We began with the last place team moving up to the top of the league standings as it stood at the end of the 2010 fantasy football season (c.f. CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS). Second up, Kabuki Strikes Back (J Fullerton).
 
Overview of J Fullerton's Brother's Keeper History
2007 RETURN OF KABUKI: 7-7-0 (2d Place) 1415.26 points; 9 transactions
2008 KABOOOOOOOKI: 6-7-0 (5th Place) 1202.07 points; 5 transactions
2009 Kabuki Strikes Back: 3-10-0 (10th Place) 1298.73 points; 8 transactions
2010 Kabuki Strikes Back: 6-7-0 (9th Place) 1380 points; 10 transactions

Kabuki Strikes Back's 2010 Keeper Declaration
As you'll see in the next section Kabuki Strikes Back has managed to keep multiple 1st Rd keepers in L Tomlinson RB and P Manning QB. With K Moreno RB kept in the 4th Rd, that left Kabuki with only 1 pick in the top 40 picks (or 1 in the top 20 if you subtract the keeper selections). This might be an advantageous choice if the 1st Rd keepers perform at or above their Ideal Draft Value. While K Moreno RB performed close to the Ideal Draft Value, P Manning QB, L Tomlinson RB, and M Crabtree WR did not. I totally understand the gamble with Tomlinson and Manning as they were greats of the previous generation of fantasy players. Even B Favre QB had a good year in 2009 right? However it wasn't as beneficial to go with the older aged players that early in the draft. P Manning performed equivalent to a 3d Rd value pick (according to his FPOB) but Tomlinson would have been more accurately selected in the 4th Rd not the 1st Rd. M Crabtree is an investment in the future. Hopefully he will begin to show fruit in his upcoming third NFL season in 2011.

Kabuki Strikes Back's 2010 Draft
Following the old Keeper League Draft Order Rule Kabuki Strikes Back (J Fullerton) had the 1st overall draft pick position in the 2010 draft due to his poor performance in 2009 (10th Place). His 2010 draft results are thus (noting those who were kept from his 2009 final roster with a This player is a keeper.):

1.(1)LaDainian Tomlinson This player is a keeper. (NYJ - RB)
1.(1)Peyton Manning This player is a keeper. (Ind - QB)
3.(21)Marques Colston (NO - WR)
4.(40)Knowshon Moreno This player is a keeper. (Den - RB)
5.(41)Joseph Addai (Ind - RB)
6.(60)Eli Manning (NYG - QB)
7.(61)Santonio Holmes (NYJ - WR)
8.(80)Michael Crabtree This player is a keeper. (SF - WR)
9.(81)John Carlson (Sea - TE)
10.(100)Chester Taylor (Chi - RB)
11.(101)Baltimore (Bal - DEF)
12.(120)Nate Kaeding (SD - K)
13.(121)Braylon Edwards (NYJ - WR)
14.(140)Donald Brown (Ind - RB)
15.(141)Early Doucet (Ari - WR)

Here's Kabuki Strikes Back's 2010 draft compared to the 2010 Brothers Keeper Fantasy Football Ideal Draft Value Chart results:

I don't think anyone could argue that Kabuki Strikes Back had a bad draft in 2010 (beyond the keeper selections). Only J Addai RB, J Carlson TE, C Taylor RB, D Brown RB, and E Doucet WR did poorly compared to their draft position. It may have been that no quality TE was still available to draft by the time J Carlson was selected in the 9th round. Taking a chance on C Taylor RB, D Brown RB, and E Doucet WR late in the draft seems acceptable too. They were after the 9th round. Anything after the 9th round would usually not be a normal starter anyhow (negative FPOB; below replacement level). Really, the only questionable pick would be J Addai RB in round 5. Kabuki Strikes Back had a very solid draft. It just appears to be a little too conservative as no pick stood out as a great pick exceeding their Ideal Draft Value by a large amount.

2010 End of Season Commentary
In 2009, J Fullerton's Kabuki Strikes Back never struck back. It was more like a strike out. So how did it go in 2010? No one bats 1.000 in the MLB. But a good record for any MLB team must be above .500 and Fullerton's team, though try as he might, didn't quite make it.

J Fullerton's Kabuki Strikes Back was defeated by Ghost 99.97 to 118.72 to begin 2010. C Palmer QB (27.7 FP) and D Clark TE (21 FP) dominated the fantasy game with solid performances by D Driver WR (12.5 FP), A Peterson RB (12.4 FP), and R Brown RB (15.5 FP) to take down P Manning 's huge day (41.32 FP). If only A Collie WR was picked up earlier and started by Kabuki he might have had a better chance to beat Ghost than he did (22.55 FP). P Manning just didn't have the supporting cast that he needed to beat Houston or to help Kabuki Strikes Back beat Ghost in fantasy play. Can a team so heavily dependent upon one man be great?

In the second week, while Kabuki Strikes Back beat Simba's Buttkicker!, R Johnson could have easily bested J Fullerton if he had started M Schaub QB (42.08 FP) and J Cribbs WR (13.6 FP) instead of M Vick QB (28.06 FP) and D McCluster WR (1.6 FP). But a win is a win and he moved right along to beat SOCIAL ISoTopes in week 3 and Yer X-MOM in week 4. Yer X-MOM had a bench with the ability to beat Kabuki Strikes Back as did R Johnson in week 2. Kabuki Strikes Back's 3 game winning streak came to an end when he faced TheSloppyButts but he could have extended his winning streak with a strong bench performance by M Crabtree (20.25 FP) and E Manning (27.78 FP). P Manning suffered only a 7.46 FP performance and A Collie only scored 7.4 FP. It really is important to sit and start the right players each week. Optimizing your performance earlier in the season gives you a greater chance to see the playoffs. So starting off the season with 4 wins and 2 losses definitely helped Kabuki out. In week 7 he narrowly was beaten (114.24 to 116.16). His entire bench save J Carlson was on a bye. He maxed out his fantasy points but was still beaten by CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS.

Feeling so Tanked
 Bouncing right back in week 8 Kabuki Strikes Back dominated Yankinfowlsandfeline who scored a season low 73.88 FP. Sitting at 5 wins and 3 losses definitely gave the appearance everything was all right for Kabuki Strikes Back as long as P Manning didn't really suffer too badly the rest of the season. But that's what happened. The next two weeks were low scoring losses by Kabuki thanks to low fantasy production by P Manning . In fact, counting those 2 weeks, Kabuki went the rest of the season losing 4 times and winning only once. The early successes led to late season losses and a miss of the fantasy playoffs. The only explanation was that P Manning suffered as did the others he played with in Indianapolis and on Kabuki Strikes Back. Had J Fullerton been able to exceed the Ideal Draft Value Chart rather than produce conservative results just below the Ideal Draft Value, maybe he could have won another game or two and keep a playoff spot.

In fact, it came down to the last regular fantasy season game. Ghost and Kabuki Strikes Back were tied in the standings with a 6 - 6 (.500 Pct) win - loss record. Ghost edged Kabuki by 22.08 FP to break the tie in standings and owned the playoff spot tentatively. He had yet to clinch it. Ghost either needed to win and Kabuki lose or if they both won Ghost needed to score enough FP to maintain a lead. However, Ghost lost to Redman's CatClippers in week 13 and Kabuki Strikes Back lost to Yer X-MOM. Ghost easily maintained his edge in FP to break the regular season winning percentage tie and thus claimed a spot in the playoffs. 
I was feeling so up!

Looking back at the regular season, Kabuki Strikes Back was only outscored by 40 FP on the season by his opponents on the year. That's a little over 3.07 FP average per week. With only 3 wins in the final 9 weeks you can't help but wonder how defeated that must have felt. The only thing he was motivated to do in the consolation bracket was to beat out CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS in the toilet bowl to avoid the embarrassment of last place. So he won that game (84.86 to 60.73).

Kabuki Strikes Back's Final 2010 Roster
Following the new Keeper League Draft Order, Kabuki Strikes Back, while failing to win in the initial game of the consolation bracket won the Toilet Bowl and staved off the humiliation of being a two time last place finisher. As such, while placing 9th in the standings, Kabuki Strikes Back will actually have the 4th pick draft position in the upcoming 2011 Brothers Keeper fantasy football draft. I have included the upcoming 2011 draft round and pick number (overall pick is in parentheses) of each player on Kabuki Strikes Back's final roster followed by the name of the player, player's position, any 1st Rd Keeper Value players, total # of fantasy starts for the season (a * indicates developmental eligibility for 2011's draft; some players were on more than one team but their total starts for all teams is listed); and total fantasy points scored by the player for the 16 fantasy week season (which is not subject to the # of starts):

1. (4) Peyton Manning QB (1st Rd Keeper Value); 12 fantasy starts; 389.8 fp
1. (4) LaDainian Tomlinson RB (1st Rd Keeper Value); 11 fantasy starts; 197.8 fp
2. (17)
3. (24) Knowshon Moreno RB; 8 fantasy starts; 177.5 fp
3. (24) Marques Colston WR; 12 fantasy starts; 177.25 fp
4. (37)
5. (44) Ricky Williams RB; 8 fantasy starts; 107.35 fp
5. (44) Joseph Addai RB; 6 fantasy starts; 96.7 fp
6. (57) Eli Manning QB; 1* fantasy starts; 315.08 fp
7. (64) Michael Crabtree WR; 3* fantasy starts; 128.05 fp
8. (77)
9. (84) John Carlson TE; 8 fantasy starts; 52.9 fp
10. (97)
11. (104) Baltimore DEF; 11 fantasy starts; 129 fp
12. (117)
13. (124) Braylon Edwards WR; 8 fantasy starts; 140.6 fp
13. (124) Jeremy Shockey TE; 5 fantasy starts; 79.4 fp
14. (137)
15. (144) Billy Cundiff K; 5 fantasy starts (1 with Yer X-MOM and 4 with Kabuki Strikes Back); 121 fp (Undrafted)
15. (144) Jason Snelling RB; 1* fantasy starts; 121.55 fp (Undrafted)
15. (144) Roy Williams WR; 8 fantasy starts; 91.5 fp (Undrafted)

Looking Ahead at 2011
Will he break out in year 3?
J Fullerton is in a tough position with Kabuki Strikes Back. He can be competitive in 2011 under good circumstances or he can be mediocre. Not bad but probably not great. The position he is in, if he were to keep his best QB, RB, and WR combination (P Manning QB, K Moreno RB [who is under pressure from his GM], and M Colston WR), he would not have a pick until the 37th overall pick. Then the debate becomes whether or not to keep E Manning QB or M Crabtree WR as his developmental eligible keepers. I like them both but he will need another WR if he selects a RB in Rd 3 or 4. It just depends on who Kabuki wants to keep. Obviously they are both productive and are both only a single Rd in value away from each other. E Manning could be good trade fodder. Plus, if he wanted to forgo keeping P Manning in the 1st Rd he could keep E Manning at a good value too. But that leaves him open to letting another stellar team with a higher draft pick with the chance to gain a solid QB. Some of those teams are only a QB away from winning the 2011 Championship too. Regardless of who is kept, J Fullerton needs to score big on some draft picks who will exceed the 2011 Ideal Draft Value Chart later in the draft.

My Best Guess at Kabuki Strikes Back's 2011 Keepers
P Manning QB, K Moreno RB, M Colston WR, and M Crabtree WR as the developmental eligible choice. This makes the most sense. This means he has the potential to be a playoff team again and not need to rebuild yet. If one were inclined to give up a WR (either Colston or Crabtree ) for E Manning , it leaves a glaring hole needing to be filled at WR and RB instead of just at RB if he passed on E Manning with so few early picks to do so. Personally I might try to trade P Manning for future potential. However, people might  not be willing to pay if the asking price is unrealistically high.
 
Brothers Keeper Third Party Consultant's Best Guess at Kabuki Strikes Back's 2011 Keepers
"I think he'll keep Peyton. Well he really has to keep him. He really is the only guy on his roster that would most likely be drafted in the Rd that he's kept in. Colston should be kept as well. He's not worth a 3d Rd pick. I would think all the other top WRs are going to be keepers on other teams. Everyone else should be thrown back and not drafted or redrafted about 5 rounds later than their keeper value. Crabtree might seem like a nice keeper who might have a decent year but 12th Rd would be a better fit for him until he gets a proven QB under center cuz Smith is garbage.

"I like Moreno but not in the 3d Rd. I think he'll still be able to draft him in the 6th or 7th Rd. He's got talent and John Fox likes to run. But Deangelo Williams might be a Bronco in a couple months and that should be something he should be watching as soon as FAs can sign. I think Moreno is more like top 60 if he's not splitting time in Denver. If you can only start 2 RBs and one is Moreno then your RBs are a weakness Moreno is a guy that maybe avg's about 7-9 points. That's low for a starting fantasy RB. Plus his past injuries are bad also. At the flex RB/WR he's worth keeping but for a 3d Rd pick I would still probably say no just cuz I would imagine guys like SJax, Ronnie Brown, Shonne Green, Ryan Mathews and probably DWill will still be available."

Monday, June 20, 2011

Looking Ahead 2011: CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS

This is the first post of a series of upcoming blogs covering each team from the 2010 Brothers Keeper 4 league year in detail. We will begin with the last place team and move up to the top of the league standings as it stood at the end of the 2010 fantasy football season. First up, CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS (R C Smith).

Overview of R C Smith's Brothers Keeper History
2007 The Superbads: 8-6-0 (5th Place) 1524.17 points; 12 transactions
2008 Team Cake Farts: 6-7-0 (8th Place) 1174.03 points; 20 transactions
2009 CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS: 8-5-0 (3rd Place; Bronze Medalist) 1356.46 points; 13 transactions
2010 CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS:  5-8-0 (10th Place) 1180.51 points; 13 transactions

CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS's 2010 Keeper Declaration
We all loved declaration day. For some, the hopes of former glory returning for another year was upon us. For others, it was a day to take down the opposition through strategery. R C Smith's keepers were the talented stars of the previous season(s). D Brees QB (1s Rd), Randy Moss WR (3d Rd), and B Favre QB (11th Rd) all had done extremely well in the previous seasons for CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS. B Wells RB (10th Rd) was a great value pick if the RB became the star some have been predicting. Unfortunately all of them (except D Brees) tanked... big time... and badly in 2010 compared to the previous year(s) of output. Ouch. In fact, B Favre and R Moss's 2010 season both made the top 10 Most dissappointing fantasy seasons. Even worse, when your team has both of them.

CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS's 2010 Draft
Following the old Keeper League Draft Order, CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS (R C Smith) had the 7th overall draft pick position in the 2010 draft due to his solid playoff performance in 2009 (3d Place). His 2010 draft results are thus (noting those who were kept from his 2009 final roster with a This player is a keeper.):

1. (7) Drew Brees This player is a keeper. (NO - QB)
2. (14) DeAngelo Williams (Car - RB)
3. (27) Randy Moss This player is a keeper. (Ten - WR)
4. (34) Ryan Grant (GB - RB)
5. (47) Mike Sims-Walker (Jac - WR)
6. (54) Owen Daniels (Hou - TE)
7. (67) Santana Moss (Was - WR)
8. (74) Jerome Harrison (Phi - RB)
9. (87) Malcom Floyd (SD - WR)
10. (94) Beanie Wells This player is a keeper. (Ari - RB)
11. (107) Brett Favre This player is a keeper. (Min - QB)
12. (114) Tim Hightower (Ari - RB)
13. (127) Bernard Berrian (Min - WR)
14. (134) Philadelphia (Phi - DEF)
15. (147) Jeff Reed (SF - K)
 
A new feature to the Brothers Keeper Looking Ahead series of posts will now include a chart to see how each team's draft compared to the Brothers Keeper Ideal Draft Value Chart. To do this we need to evaluate a team's draft in relation to that year's performance (not the 3 Year Average [2008 - 2010]). The following chart compares the FPOB of each player drafted by CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS to the 2010 Brothers Keeper Ideal Draft Value Chart. This doesn't mean these players were started and scored this number of FP for the team that drafted them. Nor does it mean these players remained on CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS's team all year. It is merely a visual graph of each drafted player's performance in FPOB compared to the Ideal Draft Value for that pick. So without further ado take a look at our first graphic representation of a Brothers Keeper's fantasy team's fantasy draft:


From a cursory look at the chart we can see that only S Moss WR, Philadelphia DEF, and J Reed K produced more FPOB than the Ideal Draft Value Chart values. Hence, they were good picks. They performed above the value of perfect market efficiency for their draft pick position. This does not mean that all players selected below the Ideal Draft Value Chart values were not good picks. We must consider that keepers will throw this off somewhat. Plus, players like D Brees QB, M Floyd WR, and T Hightower RB drafted by CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS were not drastically below the Ideal Draft Value Chart FPOB. In fact, they may have been valued correctly for the round in which they were indeed drafted. So being close to the 2010 Ideal FPOB or above indicates that they were probably drafted properly. As you can see, CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS's overall draft was poor. The worst offenders were D Williams, R Grant, and B Favre (all due to injury) and R Moss (played on three separate NFL rosters... and just plain stunk). It would be hard to see a team overcome obstacles that steep through free agency under normal circumstances and thus salvage a fantasy season. I hope he invested in some Fantasy Sports Insurance.

End of Season Commentary
CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS suffered from a seriously poor fantasy week right out of the gate in week 1. It would have been difficult to beat Redman's CatClippers regardless (125.52 FP) but important players totally miss-fired for CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS's team (e.g., D Brees QB, R Moss WR, M Sims-Walker WR, D Williams RB, Injured R Grant RB, O Daniels TE, J Harrison RB). Other than T Hightower RB, CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS's bench also suffered. Basically the whole team flopped a mighty big flop. But the nice thing about fantasy football is that you'd rather see it happen all in one week rather than each week. So how did they do the rest of the year?
Will Mick Foley Help?

Well, week 2 was a close game but it still ended in a loss to Ghost. Week 3 was R C Smith's first 2010 regular season win against, none other, than R Johnson's weak Simba's Buttkicker! which is funny because if R Johnson had started M Vick who scored 39.64 FP CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS would have lost. In week 4 CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS was crushed for the second time by a team that more than doubled his team total (see week 1's loss to Redman's CatClippers). There wasn't even a chance to perform better with his bench. This just didn't bode well for R C Smith's 2010 campaign. The lack of depth was a glaring issue but in week 5 CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS defeated the eventual 2010 champion Yer X-MOM (who actually had a bench score way more than what could have been required to win instead of lose). The next two weeks saw CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS lose one and win one before going on a terrible 3 game losing streak of bad losses by significant amounts.

He then bounced back. While taking revenge the next two weeks against Ghost and Simba's Buttkicker! R C Smith may have felt like it assuaged the terror of the poor performances the previous 3 weeks. However it really demonstrated how hot and cold CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS's team was. It is akin to a bipolar disorder. The doctor's remedy? Take some lithium and even out those highs and lows to a more steady and solid team... and don't get injured.

R C Smith's regular season winning percentage was due, in large part, to an easier than average schedule (4th easiest). Hence, despite scoring less fantasy points than Simba's Buttkicker! CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS actually outperformed Simba's Buttkicker! during the regular season. However, Simba's Buttkicker! finally bested CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS in the consolation bracket thus avoiding his own trip to the Toilet Bowl for a second time and avoiding 3 losses in a row to CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS in 2010. So here's your 2010 Brothers Keeper Fantasy Football Toilet Bowl Trophy winner/loser R C Smith's CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS, who did lose to Kabuki Strikes Back in the Toilet Bowl:

Looks so nice on the mantle doesn't it? Going from 3d Place, the Bronze Medalist winner, in 2009 to the Toilet Bowl Trophy winner in 2010 can either be encouraging or discouraging. Hopefully it inspires a better team by R C Smith in 2011. Maybe he should have saved that cigar for another day. So what did R C Smith have to say for himself? "I had a tough beat last year with Moss, Williams, and Grant. Don't plan on me being a pushover this year as I'll be passing the Loser trophy back to [R Johnson]."

CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS's Final 2010 Roster
Following the new Keeper League Draft Order, CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS, while failing to win in the consolation bracket, had a better regular season winning percentage and fantasy team performance than Simba's Buttkicker! who actually did win in the consolation bracket of the playoffs. As such, while placing 10th in the standings, CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS will actually have the 2d overall pick draft position in the upcoming 2011 Brothers Keeper fantasy football draft.

In the following list I have included the upcoming 2011 draft round and pick number (overall pick is in parentheses) of each player on CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS final roster followed by the name of the player, player's position, any 1st Rd Keeper Value players, total # of fantasy starts for the season (a * indicates developmental eligibility for 2011's draft; some players were on more than one team but their total starts for all teams is listed); and total fantasy points scored by the player for the 16 fantasy week season (which is not subject to the # of starts):

1. (2) Drew Brees QB (1st Rd Keeper Value); 12 fantasy starts; 374.85 fp
2. (19) Randy Moss WR; 9 fantasy starts; 77.65 fp
3. (22)
4. (39) Hines Ward WR; 7 fantasy starts (6 with Yer X-MOM and 1 with CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS); 124.55 fp
5. (42) Mike Sims-Walker WR; 5 fantasy starts; 111.1 fp
6. (59)
7. (62) Santana Moss WR; 8 fantasy starts; 180.15 fp
8. (79)
9. (82) Malcolm Floyd WR; 6 fantasy starts; 108.85 fp
9. (82) Beanie Wells RB; 5 fantasy starts; 60.4 fp
10. (99) Brett Favre QB; 1* fantasy starts; 127.16 fp
10. (99) Chris Cooley TE; 8 fantasy starts (5 with Redman's CatClippers and 3 with CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS); 137.45 fp
10. (99) Zach Miller TE (Oak); 4 fantasy starts; 124.5 fp
11. (102)
12. (119)
13. (122)
14. (139) Philadelphia DEF; 13 fantasy starts; 129 fp
15. (142) Rob Bironas K; 8 fantasy starts; 120 fp (Undrafted)
15. (142) Mike Goodson RB; 2* fantasy starts; 147.17 fp (Undrafted)
15. (142) Peyton Hillis RB; 9 fantasy starts; 271.07 fp (Undrafted)
15. (142) Brandon Jackson RB; 6 fantasy starts; 154.4 fp (Undrafted)

Looking Ahead at 2011
With the midseason acquisition of P Hillis RB (who is pulling fire trucks and other vehicles now) paired alongside D Brees QB, R C Smith has a solid foundation to begin to mold his next season's team's aspirations to attend the playoffs again. The sting of not entering the playoffs for the first time should drive him to have a good draft and build on what does exist as a strength. Hopefully he doesn't suffer catastrophic injury losses like he did in 2010.

My Best Guess at CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS's 2011 Keepers
Definitely D Brees QB and P Hillis RB will be kept. But who else is a worthy keeper? Maybe C Cooley TE? He seems the next best choice in my opinion and at a 10th Rd draft pick it appears to be a fair price but we have no idea who will be his QB with the Washington Redskins. If it is Rex Grossman then I doubt C Cooley is worth keeping. This would free up early draft picks to focus on other more vital positions. Another solid RB and WR in Rd 2 and 3 would go a long way in setting the stage to return to the playoffs. Building a team with some depth rather than no depth as in 2010 will also be indicative of whether or not CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS will advance in 2011. This is definitely a time to be sober about the future.

Brothers Keeper Third Party Consultant's Best Guess at CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS's 2011 Keepers
"I'm rolling with Brees, Hillis and would make [a] trade for [a WR]. I would prefer a #1 WR by the time his team is ready to come out of last place which would be in 2012-2013 season. He's gotta think long term and CLE is killing Hillis. The guy's a beast but every RB breaks down and last year was a huge jump in carries. I would offer Hillis for two players. I would try and get Jamal Charles and a pick in the first two Rds and try and grab AJ Green or Mark Ingram. This team has way too many holes but with a good draft next year he can be out of last place. The only thing I want to know from him is what did he do to [upset] the fantasy football gods cuz his draft was unbelievably bad."

Thursday, May 5, 2011

2011 NFL Draft Grades

Post-NFL Draft grading and evaluation is kind of a funny thing to do when you think about it. Maybe half of the drafted prospects gain a career? It's like flipping a coin almost. There is the human element involved. It's like playing the ponies rather than playing the lottery. Horse racing involves both the ability of the horse and the rider's attempt to execute a strategy along with other riders and horses. And then assume it is the horse's first race. Bettors have no idea what to think. It's the future they place their money on. It takes a few races to get to know a horse. Some like grass. Some like sloppy tracks. Some use different riders. The variables are many. Same with NFL Draft prospects. We just don't know which players are going to perform well or become complete flops until around 6 years pass and we see which players for which teams do what. Do Instant Draft Grades Mean Anything? Not Really. But even then, they check their own work somewhat by arguing the more picks a team has the better: In NFL Draft, Numbers Do Matter.

There are two different kinds of draft grades. Draft grades immediately following the NFL Draft (by the way, here is 2011's NFL Draft results) are measuring how teams did acquiring talent relative to where the players were expected to go in the draft. Of course, that runs into unreliable narrator issues and circular arguments, since draft aficionados are the only ones setting the market value publicly and they are the same ones deciding value relative to draft position and they don't all agree. On top of that, not everyone agrees on what sort of expectation and risk is acceptable for each pick or even each player being selected. Should teams draft for high reward yet have a higher risk? Good question (see Drive-By Football's "Drafting: Risk & Variability"). However, NFL Draft grades years from now measure how effective the teams were at acquiring talent, with the hindsight of those draftees NFL performance. They're two totally different ways of looking at the draft. Obviously, one seems more legit and objective than the other. Nonetheless, here are some of the more prominent 2011 NFL Draft grades available. I'm sure there are more:

Mel Kiper, ESPN (Insider)
Rob Rang, NFLDraftScout.com
Pete Prisco, CBS Sports
Clifton Brown, Sporting News
Adam Caplan, FOXSports.com
Gregg Rosenthal (AFC) & Evan Silva (NFC), NBCSports.com
Jarrett Bell, USA Today
(AFC) and (NFC) grades from Jason Cole, Yahoo! Sports
(AFC) and (NFC) grades from Nolan Nawrocki, Pro Football Weekly
AFC) and (NFC) grades from Wes Bunting, National Football Post
Kerry Byrne, Sports Illustrated
NFL.com Fan Balloting
Jordan Schultz, Huffington Post
John Dove, (AFC) and (NFC)
Greg Gaines, GM Jr

While most of these articles used a standard A/B/C/D grading system, Scouts Inc. used a different scoring model. Utilizing ESPN's Stats and Information, they built a formula (explained here, ESPN Insider) calculating NFL team's needs, draft pick value (based on Scouts Inc.’s player ranking), and trade value (a subjective point total ranging from +5 to -5) to rank each NFL team. The lower the score, the better the draft.

While Football Outsiders evaluates NFL Drafts 6 years later (2004 [1998], 2005 [1999], 2006 [2000], 2007 [2001], 2008 [2002], 2009 [2003], 2010 [2004], 2011 [2005]) they took the Wisdom of the Crowds/Conventional Wisdom approach to peer into how this year's NFL Draft is perceived by the draftniks, which is an objective measure. Most NFL Draft grades are assigned to how well individual teams did overall in the draft. Each individual pick is not necessarily analyzed. Most important picks/trades/strategies are understood in the context of an NFL team's work on the Draft. Thankfully, Football Outsiders has calculated the efforts of others for our enjoyment. Here is their objective measure of how the draftniks subjective perception on how NFL teams performed in this year's (and prior years) NFL Drafts:

2011 NFL Draft Report Card Report
2010 NFL Draft Report Card Report
2009 NFL Draft Report Card Report
2008 NFL Draft Report Card Report
2007 NFL Draft Report Card Report
2005 NFL Draft Report Card Report