2011 NFL Draft Grades

Post-NFL Draft grading and evaluation is kind of a funny thing to do when you think about it. Maybe half of the drafted prospects gain a career? It's like flipping a coin almost. There is the human element involved. It's like playing the ponies rather than playing the lottery. Horse racing involves both the ability of the horse and the rider's attempt to execute a strategy along with other riders and horses. And then assume it is the horse's first race. Bettors have no idea what to think. It's the future they place their money on. It takes a few races to get to know a horse. Some like grass. Some like sloppy tracks. Some use different riders. The variables are many. Same with NFL Draft prospects. We just don't know which players are going to perform well or become complete flops until around 6 years pass and we see which players for which teams do what. Do Instant Draft Grades Mean Anything? Not Really. But even then, they check their own work somewhat by arguing the more picks a team has the better: In NFL Draft, Numbers Do Matter.

There are two different kinds of draft grades. Draft grades immediately following the NFL Draft (by the way, here is 2011's NFL Draft results) are measuring how teams did acquiring talent relative to where the players were expected to go in the draft. Of course, that runs into unreliable narrator issues and circular arguments, since draft aficionados are the only ones setting the market value publicly and they are the same ones deciding value relative to draft position and they don't all agree. On top of that, not everyone agrees on what sort of expectation and risk is acceptable for each pick or even each player being selected. Should teams draft for high reward yet have a higher risk? Good question (see Drive-By Football's "Drafting: Risk & Variability"). However, NFL Draft grades years from now measure how effective the teams were at acquiring talent, with the hindsight of those draftees NFL performance. They're two totally different ways of looking at the draft. Obviously, one seems more legit and objective than the other. Nonetheless, here are some of the more prominent 2011 NFL Draft grades available. I'm sure there are more:

Mel Kiper, ESPN (Insider)
Rob Rang, NFLDraftScout.com
Pete Prisco, CBS Sports
Clifton Brown, Sporting News
Adam Caplan, FOXSports.com
Gregg Rosenthal (AFC) & Evan Silva (NFC), NBCSports.com
Jarrett Bell, USA Today
(AFC) and (NFC) grades from Jason Cole, Yahoo! Sports
(AFC) and (NFC) grades from Nolan Nawrocki, Pro Football Weekly
AFC) and (NFC) grades from Wes Bunting, National Football Post
Kerry Byrne, Sports Illustrated
NFL.com Fan Balloting
Jordan Schultz, Huffington Post
John Dove, (AFC) and (NFC)
Greg Gaines, GM Jr

While most of these articles used a standard A/B/C/D grading system, Scouts Inc. used a different scoring model. Utilizing ESPN's Stats and Information, they built a formula (explained here, ESPN Insider) calculating NFL team's needs, draft pick value (based on Scouts Inc.’s player ranking), and trade value (a subjective point total ranging from +5 to -5) to rank each NFL team. The lower the score, the better the draft.

While Football Outsiders evaluates NFL Drafts 6 years later (2004 [1998], 2005 [1999], 2006 [2000], 2007 [2001], 2008 [2002], 2009 [2003], 2010 [2004], 2011 [2005]) they took the Wisdom of the Crowds/Conventional Wisdom approach to peer into how this year's NFL Draft is perceived by the draftniks, which is an objective measure. Most NFL Draft grades are assigned to how well individual teams did overall in the draft. Each individual pick is not necessarily analyzed. Most important picks/trades/strategies are understood in the context of an NFL team's work on the Draft. Thankfully, Football Outsiders has calculated the efforts of others for our enjoyment. Here is their objective measure of how the draftniks subjective perception on how NFL teams performed in this year's (and prior years) NFL Drafts:

2011 NFL Draft Report Card Report
2010 NFL Draft Report Card Report
2009 NFL Draft Report Card Report
2008 NFL Draft Report Card Report
2007 NFL Draft Report Card Report
2005 NFL Draft Report Card Report

Observing the 2011 NFL Draft Live

The day has finally come to begin the 2011 NFL Draft. There is a myriad of resources online to follow the NFL Draft which begins tonight at 8 pm ET. If you look to follow the results you can watch the live broadcast on NFL.com. If you'd rather not watch the broadcast there, you can at least follow the NFL's Draft Tracker. I'm sure there will be others available online as well. Another way to follow the draft discussion with it's news and reaction is on twitter:


Here's a few articles I thought were noteworthy to read:
3 things nobody will tell you about the NFL Draft

Beware of the mock draft

Drafting: Risk & Variability

Are NFL scouting departments underfunded?

Can the Moneyball concept work in the NFL?

The NFL player's offseason

A couple about the CB dispute:
NFL statement on post-injunction operations

Lockout Lifted, Football Operations Can Resume

Here's one about P Manning's concussion testing:
Concussion test sandbagging has face: Manning

Hope you enjoy and best of luck to your favored NFL team and future fantasy football team.

Revisiting Age Associated Decline of NFL Players for Fantasy Purposes: 2010 Brothers Keeper Final Roster Update

Tiki Barber RB: "36 isn't old! 'Old' is just a word!"

Last year I introduced you to Doug Drinen's research regarding the importance of age associated decline of NFL players. To summarize his conclusion in his own words again, "According to this data, the word 'old' means 28 for a running back, 30 for a receiver, and 32 for a quarterback. This is probably not a surprise, as it squares fairly well with conventional wisdom." We then considered that there are indeed anomalies who do not fit this "conventional wisdom." But in general, this is pretty accurate. Are you listening Tiki Barber?

Following the introduction I then applied Drinen's conclusions to the final rosters of the 2009 Brothers Keeper season excluding the age of kickers and defensive players from the analysis. The results were different than merely taking the pure average age of those same players together regardless of their position. Rather than mindlessly assess without regard for positional differences, I used Drinen's figures as the baseline and then figured the average by the number of players considered (since teams did not have the same number of position players). Utilizing that method, how do the final 2010 Brothers Keeper rosters look this offseason?

Team                     Avg Age
Ghost                         25.69
Yankinfowlsandfeline    25.77
TheSloppyButts           26.08
Rmmm's Dropping 3's   27.67
Yer X-MOM                  27.69
Points ON the Bench   27.77
SOCIAL ISoTopes         27.92
Simba's Buttkicker!       28.62
Kabuki Strikes Back     29.08
CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS  29.54

Team                     Total Years Above/Below Age of Decline
Yankinfowlsandfeline     -50
Ghost                          -49
TheSloppyButts            -44
Yer X-MOM                   -28
SOCIAL ISoTopes          -24
Points ON the Bench     -23
Rmmm's Dropping 3's    -18
Simba's Buttkicker!        -8
Kabuki Strikes Back      -4
CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS    0

Team                      Average Years Above/Below Age of Decline
Yankinfowlsandfeline     -3.85
Ghost                          -3.77
TheSloppyButts            -3.67
Yer X-MOM                   -2.15
SOCIAL ISoTopes         -1.85
Points ON the Bench     -1.77
Rmmm's Dropping 3's    -1.5
Simba's Buttkicker!       -0.62
Kabuki Strikes Back     -0.31
CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS   0

Let me conclude by quoting my concluding paragraphs from last year as a helpful reminder:

These stats are only helpful to understand who may or may not be as poised to make a long term impact in Brothers Keeper from the available players on the final rosters of [2010]. Those at the top of the lists have a better chance of retaining talent below the normal age of decline than those at the bottom of the lists. While it may be more probable, it is still possible for a team like [Points ON the Bench] to keep players that are older than Kabuki Strikes Back might keep and therefore these lists are in no way a final predictor of fantasy success in the long term.

A few caveats are also necessary. This does not account for future NFL strength of schedule and other factors like offensive linemen turnover/age/effectiveness. This should not directly correlate to fantasy points. It does not factor in over usage of players who may burn out faster. This may have some correlation to injuries but not entirely as some injuries are entirely random. This is merely a snapshot in time of how young the current fantasy rosters are and a small projection of the probability of keeping talent below the age of decline. Some teams are more able to keep players younger than the declining ages than other fantasy teams.

So as we begin to consider next year's fantasy football keeper selection and fantasy drafts we'll again be able to look at our squads and hope for future success. Compared to last year's final rosters, this year's set of final rosters is striking because no team is, on average, above the age of decline going in to 2011.

On a side note, I hope you enjoy the new look and feel of the blog. It will be modified and updated in certain sections in the near future.

Tracking the NFL Lockout in the Cloud: The FFToolbox Answer

"Will the NFL play in 2011?" "Will there be pro football this fall?" "Should we cancel fantasy football this year?" Those are the questions on any fantasy football player's mind. For those of you who like to read a lot then you'll want to access FFToolbox.com's one-stop-shop NFL Lockout Watch. They are scouring the Internet for the pertinent articles and rumors regarding the NFL Lockout and the CBA then posting the links for others to follow along. There is definitely some good things out there. So far there are multiple pages of links to choose from and read. The links to articles etc. are posted chronologically with helpful time stamps. Thank you FFToolbox.com for doing the hard work (so we don't have to) on a subject we rarely have to encounter as a fantasy football player.