Monday, June 20, 2011

Looking Ahead 2011: CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS

This is the first post of a series of upcoming blogs covering each team from the 2010 Brothers Keeper 4 league year in detail. We will begin with the last place team and move up to the top of the league standings as it stood at the end of the 2010 fantasy football season. First up, CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS (R C Smith).

Overview of R C Smith's Brothers Keeper History
2007 The Superbads: 8-6-0 (5th Place) 1524.17 points; 12 transactions
2008 Team Cake Farts: 6-7-0 (8th Place) 1174.03 points; 20 transactions
2009 CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS: 8-5-0 (3rd Place; Bronze Medalist) 1356.46 points; 13 transactions
2010 CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS:  5-8-0 (10th Place) 1180.51 points; 13 transactions

CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS's 2010 Keeper Declaration
We all loved declaration day. For some, the hopes of former glory returning for another year was upon us. For others, it was a day to take down the opposition through strategery. R C Smith's keepers were the talented stars of the previous season(s). D Brees QB (1s Rd), Randy Moss WR (3d Rd), and B Favre QB (11th Rd) all had done extremely well in the previous seasons for CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS. B Wells RB (10th Rd) was a great value pick if the RB became the star some have been predicting. Unfortunately all of them (except D Brees) tanked... big time... and badly in 2010 compared to the previous year(s) of output. Ouch. In fact, B Favre and R Moss's 2010 season both made the top 10 Most dissappointing fantasy seasons. Even worse, when your team has both of them.

CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS's 2010 Draft
Following the old Keeper League Draft Order, CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS (R C Smith) had the 7th overall draft pick position in the 2010 draft due to his solid playoff performance in 2009 (3d Place). His 2010 draft results are thus (noting those who were kept from his 2009 final roster with a This player is a keeper.):

1. (7) Drew Brees This player is a keeper. (NO - QB)
2. (14) DeAngelo Williams (Car - RB)
3. (27) Randy Moss This player is a keeper. (Ten - WR)
4. (34) Ryan Grant (GB - RB)
5. (47) Mike Sims-Walker (Jac - WR)
6. (54) Owen Daniels (Hou - TE)
7. (67) Santana Moss (Was - WR)
8. (74) Jerome Harrison (Phi - RB)
9. (87) Malcom Floyd (SD - WR)
10. (94) Beanie Wells This player is a keeper. (Ari - RB)
11. (107) Brett Favre This player is a keeper. (Min - QB)
12. (114) Tim Hightower (Ari - RB)
13. (127) Bernard Berrian (Min - WR)
14. (134) Philadelphia (Phi - DEF)
15. (147) Jeff Reed (SF - K)
 
A new feature to the Brothers Keeper Looking Ahead series of posts will now include a chart to see how each team's draft compared to the Brothers Keeper Ideal Draft Value Chart. To do this we need to evaluate a team's draft in relation to that year's performance (not the 3 Year Average [2008 - 2010]). The following chart compares the FPOB of each player drafted by CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS to the 2010 Brothers Keeper Ideal Draft Value Chart. This doesn't mean these players were started and scored this number of FP for the team that drafted them. Nor does it mean these players remained on CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS's team all year. It is merely a visual graph of each drafted player's performance in FPOB compared to the Ideal Draft Value for that pick. So without further ado take a look at our first graphic representation of a Brothers Keeper's fantasy team's fantasy draft:


From a cursory look at the chart we can see that only S Moss WR, Philadelphia DEF, and J Reed K produced more FPOB than the Ideal Draft Value Chart values. Hence, they were good picks. They performed above the value of perfect market efficiency for their draft pick position. This does not mean that all players selected below the Ideal Draft Value Chart values were not good picks. We must consider that keepers will throw this off somewhat. Plus, players like D Brees QB, M Floyd WR, and T Hightower RB drafted by CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS were not drastically below the Ideal Draft Value Chart FPOB. In fact, they may have been valued correctly for the round in which they were indeed drafted. So being close to the 2010 Ideal FPOB or above indicates that they were probably drafted properly. As you can see, CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS's overall draft was poor. The worst offenders were D Williams, R Grant, and B Favre (all due to injury) and R Moss (played on three separate NFL rosters... and just plain stunk). It would be hard to see a team overcome obstacles that steep through free agency under normal circumstances and thus salvage a fantasy season. I hope he invested in some Fantasy Sports Insurance.

End of Season Commentary
CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS suffered from a seriously poor fantasy week right out of the gate in week 1. It would have been difficult to beat Redman's CatClippers regardless (125.52 FP) but important players totally miss-fired for CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS's team (e.g., D Brees QB, R Moss WR, M Sims-Walker WR, D Williams RB, Injured R Grant RB, O Daniels TE, J Harrison RB). Other than T Hightower RB, CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS's bench also suffered. Basically the whole team flopped a mighty big flop. But the nice thing about fantasy football is that you'd rather see it happen all in one week rather than each week. So how did they do the rest of the year?
Will Mick Foley Help?

Well, week 2 was a close game but it still ended in a loss to Ghost. Week 3 was R C Smith's first 2010 regular season win against, none other, than R Johnson's weak Simba's Buttkicker! which is funny because if R Johnson had started M Vick who scored 39.64 FP CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS would have lost. In week 4 CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS was crushed for the second time by a team that more than doubled his team total (see week 1's loss to Redman's CatClippers). There wasn't even a chance to perform better with his bench. This just didn't bode well for R C Smith's 2010 campaign. The lack of depth was a glaring issue but in week 5 CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS defeated the eventual 2010 champion Yer X-MOM (who actually had a bench score way more than what could have been required to win instead of lose). The next two weeks saw CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS lose one and win one before going on a terrible 3 game losing streak of bad losses by significant amounts.

He then bounced back. While taking revenge the next two weeks against Ghost and Simba's Buttkicker! R C Smith may have felt like it assuaged the terror of the poor performances the previous 3 weeks. However it really demonstrated how hot and cold CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS's team was. It is akin to a bipolar disorder. The doctor's remedy? Take some lithium and even out those highs and lows to a more steady and solid team... and don't get injured.

R C Smith's regular season winning percentage was due, in large part, to an easier than average schedule (4th easiest). Hence, despite scoring less fantasy points than Simba's Buttkicker! CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS actually outperformed Simba's Buttkicker! during the regular season. However, Simba's Buttkicker! finally bested CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS in the consolation bracket thus avoiding his own trip to the Toilet Bowl for a second time and avoiding 3 losses in a row to CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS in 2010. So here's your 2010 Brothers Keeper Fantasy Football Toilet Bowl Trophy winner/loser R C Smith's CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS, who did lose to Kabuki Strikes Back in the Toilet Bowl:

Looks so nice on the mantle doesn't it? Going from 3d Place, the Bronze Medalist winner, in 2009 to the Toilet Bowl Trophy winner in 2010 can either be encouraging or discouraging. Hopefully it inspires a better team by R C Smith in 2011. Maybe he should have saved that cigar for another day. So what did R C Smith have to say for himself? "I had a tough beat last year with Moss, Williams, and Grant. Don't plan on me being a pushover this year as I'll be passing the Loser trophy back to [R Johnson]."

CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS's Final 2010 Roster
Following the new Keeper League Draft Order, CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS, while failing to win in the consolation bracket, had a better regular season winning percentage and fantasy team performance than Simba's Buttkicker! who actually did win in the consolation bracket of the playoffs. As such, while placing 10th in the standings, CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS will actually have the 2d overall pick draft position in the upcoming 2011 Brothers Keeper fantasy football draft.

In the following list I have included the upcoming 2011 draft round and pick number (overall pick is in parentheses) of each player on CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS final roster followed by the name of the player, player's position, any 1st Rd Keeper Value players, total # of fantasy starts for the season (a * indicates developmental eligibility for 2011's draft; some players were on more than one team but their total starts for all teams is listed); and total fantasy points scored by the player for the 16 fantasy week season (which is not subject to the # of starts):

1. (2) Drew Brees QB (1st Rd Keeper Value); 12 fantasy starts; 374.85 fp
2. (19) Randy Moss WR; 9 fantasy starts; 77.65 fp
3. (22)
4. (39) Hines Ward WR; 7 fantasy starts (6 with Yer X-MOM and 1 with CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS); 124.55 fp
5. (42) Mike Sims-Walker WR; 5 fantasy starts; 111.1 fp
6. (59)
7. (62) Santana Moss WR; 8 fantasy starts; 180.15 fp
8. (79)
9. (82) Malcolm Floyd WR; 6 fantasy starts; 108.85 fp
9. (82) Beanie Wells RB; 5 fantasy starts; 60.4 fp
10. (99) Brett Favre QB; 1* fantasy starts; 127.16 fp
10. (99) Chris Cooley TE; 8 fantasy starts (5 with Redman's CatClippers and 3 with CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS); 137.45 fp
10. (99) Zach Miller TE (Oak); 4 fantasy starts; 124.5 fp
11. (102)
12. (119)
13. (122)
14. (139) Philadelphia DEF; 13 fantasy starts; 129 fp
15. (142) Rob Bironas K; 8 fantasy starts; 120 fp (Undrafted)
15. (142) Mike Goodson RB; 2* fantasy starts; 147.17 fp (Undrafted)
15. (142) Peyton Hillis RB; 9 fantasy starts; 271.07 fp (Undrafted)
15. (142) Brandon Jackson RB; 6 fantasy starts; 154.4 fp (Undrafted)

Looking Ahead at 2011
With the midseason acquisition of P Hillis RB (who is pulling fire trucks and other vehicles now) paired alongside D Brees QB, R C Smith has a solid foundation to begin to mold his next season's team's aspirations to attend the playoffs again. The sting of not entering the playoffs for the first time should drive him to have a good draft and build on what does exist as a strength. Hopefully he doesn't suffer catastrophic injury losses like he did in 2010.

My Best Guess at CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS's 2011 Keepers
Definitely D Brees QB and P Hillis RB will be kept. But who else is a worthy keeper? Maybe C Cooley TE? He seems the next best choice in my opinion and at a 10th Rd draft pick it appears to be a fair price but we have no idea who will be his QB with the Washington Redskins. If it is Rex Grossman then I doubt C Cooley is worth keeping. This would free up early draft picks to focus on other more vital positions. Another solid RB and WR in Rd 2 and 3 would go a long way in setting the stage to return to the playoffs. Building a team with some depth rather than no depth as in 2010 will also be indicative of whether or not CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS will advance in 2011. This is definitely a time to be sober about the future.

Brothers Keeper Third Party Consultant's Best Guess at CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS's 2011 Keepers
"I'm rolling with Brees, Hillis and would make [a] trade for [a WR]. I would prefer a #1 WR by the time his team is ready to come out of last place which would be in 2012-2013 season. He's gotta think long term and CLE is killing Hillis. The guy's a beast but every RB breaks down and last year was a huge jump in carries. I would offer Hillis for two players. I would try and get Jamal Charles and a pick in the first two Rds and try and grab AJ Green or Mark Ingram. This team has way too many holes but with a good draft next year he can be out of last place. The only thing I want to know from him is what did he do to [upset] the fantasy football gods cuz his draft was unbelievably bad."

Thursday, May 5, 2011

2011 NFL Draft Grades

Post-NFL Draft grading and evaluation is kind of a funny thing to do when you think about it. Maybe half of the drafted prospects gain a career? It's like flipping a coin almost. There is the human element involved. It's like playing the ponies rather than playing the lottery. Horse racing involves both the ability of the horse and the rider's attempt to execute a strategy along with other riders and horses. And then assume it is the horse's first race. Bettors have no idea what to think. It's the future they place their money on. It takes a few races to get to know a horse. Some like grass. Some like sloppy tracks. Some use different riders. The variables are many. Same with NFL Draft prospects. We just don't know which players are going to perform well or become complete flops until around 6 years pass and we see which players for which teams do what. Do Instant Draft Grades Mean Anything? Not Really. But even then, they check their own work somewhat by arguing the more picks a team has the better: In NFL Draft, Numbers Do Matter.

There are two different kinds of draft grades. Draft grades immediately following the NFL Draft (by the way, here is 2011's NFL Draft results) are measuring how teams did acquiring talent relative to where the players were expected to go in the draft. Of course, that runs into unreliable narrator issues and circular arguments, since draft aficionados are the only ones setting the market value publicly and they are the same ones deciding value relative to draft position and they don't all agree. On top of that, not everyone agrees on what sort of expectation and risk is acceptable for each pick or even each player being selected. Should teams draft for high reward yet have a higher risk? Good question (see Drive-By Football's "Drafting: Risk & Variability"). However, NFL Draft grades years from now measure how effective the teams were at acquiring talent, with the hindsight of those draftees NFL performance. They're two totally different ways of looking at the draft. Obviously, one seems more legit and objective than the other. Nonetheless, here are some of the more prominent 2011 NFL Draft grades available. I'm sure there are more:

Mel Kiper, ESPN (Insider)
Rob Rang, NFLDraftScout.com
Pete Prisco, CBS Sports
Clifton Brown, Sporting News
Adam Caplan, FOXSports.com
Gregg Rosenthal (AFC) & Evan Silva (NFC), NBCSports.com
Jarrett Bell, USA Today
(AFC) and (NFC) grades from Jason Cole, Yahoo! Sports
(AFC) and (NFC) grades from Nolan Nawrocki, Pro Football Weekly
AFC) and (NFC) grades from Wes Bunting, National Football Post
Kerry Byrne, Sports Illustrated
NFL.com Fan Balloting
Jordan Schultz, Huffington Post
John Dove, (AFC) and (NFC)
Greg Gaines, GM Jr

While most of these articles used a standard A/B/C/D grading system, Scouts Inc. used a different scoring model. Utilizing ESPN's Stats and Information, they built a formula (explained here, ESPN Insider) calculating NFL team's needs, draft pick value (based on Scouts Inc.’s player ranking), and trade value (a subjective point total ranging from +5 to -5) to rank each NFL team. The lower the score, the better the draft.

While Football Outsiders evaluates NFL Drafts 6 years later (2004 [1998], 2005 [1999], 2006 [2000], 2007 [2001], 2008 [2002], 2009 [2003], 2010 [2004], 2011 [2005]) they took the Wisdom of the Crowds/Conventional Wisdom approach to peer into how this year's NFL Draft is perceived by the draftniks, which is an objective measure. Most NFL Draft grades are assigned to how well individual teams did overall in the draft. Each individual pick is not necessarily analyzed. Most important picks/trades/strategies are understood in the context of an NFL team's work on the Draft. Thankfully, Football Outsiders has calculated the efforts of others for our enjoyment. Here is their objective measure of how the draftniks subjective perception on how NFL teams performed in this year's (and prior years) NFL Drafts:

2011 NFL Draft Report Card Report
2010 NFL Draft Report Card Report
2009 NFL Draft Report Card Report
2008 NFL Draft Report Card Report
2007 NFL Draft Report Card Report
2005 NFL Draft Report Card Report

Thursday, April 28, 2011

Observing the 2011 NFL Draft Live

The day has finally come to begin the 2011 NFL Draft. There is a myriad of resources online to follow the NFL Draft which begins tonight at 8 pm ET. If you look to follow the results you can watch the live broadcast on NFL.com. If you'd rather not watch the broadcast there, you can at least follow the NFL's Draft Tracker. I'm sure there will be others available online as well. Another way to follow the draft discussion with it's news and reaction is on twitter:


Here's a few articles I thought were noteworthy to read:
3 things nobody will tell you about the NFL Draft

Beware of the mock draft

Drafting: Risk & Variability

Are NFL scouting departments underfunded?

Can the Moneyball concept work in the NFL?

The NFL player's offseason

A couple about the CB dispute:
NFL statement on post-injunction operations

Lockout Lifted, Football Operations Can Resume

Here's one about P Manning's concussion testing:
Concussion test sandbagging has face: Manning

Hope you enjoy and best of luck to your favored NFL team and future fantasy football team.

Wednesday, April 20, 2011

Revisiting Age Associated Decline of NFL Players for Fantasy Purposes: 2010 Brothers Keeper Final Roster Update

Tiki Barber RB: "36 isn't old! 'Old' is just a word!"
Last year I introduced you to Doug Drinen's research regarding the importance of age associated decline of NFL players. To summarize his conclusion in his own words again, "According to this data, the word 'old' means 28 for a running back, 30 for a receiver, and 32 for a quarterback. This is probably not a surprise, as it squares fairly well with conventional wisdom." We then considered that there are indeed anomalies who do not fit this "conventional wisdom." But in general, this is pretty accurate. Are you listening Tiki Barber?

Following the introduction I then applied Drinen's conclusions to the final rosters of the 2009 Brothers Keeper season excluding the age of kickers and defensive players from the analysis. The results were different than merely taking the pure average age of those same players together regardless of their position. Rather than mindlessly assess without regard for positional differences, I used Drinen's figures as the baseline and then figured the average by the number of players considered (since teams did not have the same number of position players). Utilizing that method, how do the final 2010 Brothers Keeper rosters look this offseason?

Team                     Avg Age
Ghost                         25.69
Yankinfowlsandfeline    25.77
TheSloppyButts           26.08
Rmmm's Dropping 3's   27.67
Yer X-MOM                  27.69
Points ON the Bench   27.77
SOCIAL ISoTopes         27.92
Simba's Buttkicker!       28.62
Kabuki Strikes Back     29.08
CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS  29.54

Team                     Total Years Above/Below Age of Decline
Yankinfowlsandfeline     -50
Ghost                          -49
TheSloppyButts            -44
Yer X-MOM                   -28
SOCIAL ISoTopes          -24
Points ON the Bench     -23
Rmmm's Dropping 3's    -18
Simba's Buttkicker!        -8
Kabuki Strikes Back      -4
CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS    0

Team                      Average Years Above/Below Age of Decline
Yankinfowlsandfeline     -3.85
Ghost                          -3.77
TheSloppyButts            -3.67
Yer X-MOM                   -2.15
SOCIAL ISoTopes         -1.85
Points ON the Bench     -1.77
Rmmm's Dropping 3's    -1.5
Simba's Buttkicker!       -0.62
Kabuki Strikes Back     -0.31
CYBORG PIRATE NINJAS   0

Let me conclude by quoting my concluding paragraphs from last year as a helpful reminder:
These stats are only helpful to understand who may or may not be as poised to make a long term impact in Brothers Keeper from the available players on the final rosters of [2010]. Those at the top of the lists have a better chance of retaining talent below the normal age of decline than those at the bottom of the lists. While it may be more probable, it is still possible for a team like [Points ON the Bench] to keep players that are older than Kabuki Strikes Back might keep and therefore these lists are in no way a final predictor of fantasy success in the long term.

A few caveats are also necessary. This does not account for future NFL strength of schedule and other factors like offensive linemen turnover/age/effectiveness. This should not directly correlate to fantasy points. It does not factor in over usage of players who may burn out faster. This may have some correlation to injuries but not entirely as some injuries are entirely random. This is merely a snapshot in time of how young the current fantasy rosters are and a small projection of the probability of keeping talent below the age of decline. Some teams are more able to keep players younger than the declining ages than other fantasy teams.
So as we begin to consider next year's fantasy football keeper selection and fantasy drafts we'll again be able to look at our squads and hope for future success. Compared to last year's final rosters, this year's set of final rosters is striking because no team is, on average, above the age of decline going in to 2011.

On a side note, I hope you enjoy the new look and feel of the blog. It will be modified and updated in certain sections in the near future.